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Bubble

Bitcoin - As Time StopsBitcoin has made a solid recovery since the bounce off a major trendline at $5,300 and has since broken through all major resistances and appears to be on the verge of a breakout to a new all time high. News that Amazon will be accepting Bitcoin is evidentally coming on their conference call in about 6 hours, and so we now have a new group of people who have assembled to perform prayer to the moon as we progress. However, zooming out and taking a look at the 12h, there are major major bearish divergences. We have a H&S forming on the 12H, just as we did at the decline of the $4900 ATH. Also worth noting is if you trendline from the previous large dump through the most recent smaller dump on both graphs, they both dip below and then come up and retest the intersection of the shoulder line and that trendline. Will Bitcoin collapse and correct as it did before? Well, you tell me. Take a look at the EMAs (Willy21 blue line is very close to traditional RSI) and the Stoch on the longer time frame. We are in a situation where we are supposed to have the momentum to smash through major resistance with parabolic volume, yet we are very over extended and momentum indicator shows we are out of fuel. You know the saying "Buy the rumor, sell the news"? What's happening right now is merely this cycle's manifestation of China FUD. I do expect a push into 6k-6.3k on this before it reverses and dumps. Be careful you don't get stuck with bags and be careful you don't short the wrong situation.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by RiversAndMountains
Bitcoin - All Your Spidey Senses Should be TinglingMake no mistake about it. We lie amidst the first wave of calamity. Amidst calamity, it is never so easy to see what is going on, or where things are going to go. If it were, it would neither count as calamity, nor would it be the case that most traders lose money in the market. It would also mean there was no money to be made in the market, and we wouldn't be here doing this. In one of my previous posts, which I've included, I warned of a risk of a Bump and Run Reversal where one has to be extremely careful at 5.9k to 6.1k. I also said that the pattern can play out in a failed run to 6.1-6.3k. So far, it would seem the read has played out well. What is a Bump and Run Reversal? d.stockcharts.com Forget all the lines on that as it came from merely a Google search, but a pattern where we bump here to $6,300 and then are nuked is looking very likely at the moment. Why am I warning of this? Because alarm bells should be ringing in your head. Why? Because at the same time that the price fell to a key support line, Bitfinex Tweeted that they'll be offering a Chain Split Token (futures) for Bitcoin Gold: twitter.com Why does that matter? Because with Bittrex and Finex, who are crediting the tokens but not providing a market, you have to have Bitcoin in your wallet at the time of the snapshot to be credited Bitcoin Gold. Do you see the idea? So, what is going to happen in the next 12 hours before the snapshot? Is the price going to go to Goblin Town so everyone can buy Bitcoin cheap to get their "free money"? It is the perfect storm to bring the markets to a $6,300 ATH, and as it stands now, take a look. We are entering all of the key trendlines and breakout points and indicators show reversal. Take a look at IOTA, OmiseGO, and Ethereum and you'll see a similar pattern play out at the tops of their ATHs. In trading, the most important thing is not not missing out on opportunities. Opporunities are there every single day in crypto. What's most important is protecting your money. Where we are right now is designed fundamentally to take your money away from you. It's a zero-sum game. Enlighten to it.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.P
by RiversAndMountains
6
Bitcoin Cash is the Greatest Bear Trap of All TimeI won't give much preamble about Bitcoin Cash. You can make your own decision about which side to stand on with the information that is available to you. That being said, as a trader, you should pay attention to price action first, fundamentals second, and politics and rumors literally not even at all. The reality is, Bitcoin Gold is a scam: twitter.com The reality is, right now, Segwit 2x is not in much better of a situation regarding their fork being adopted by exchanges. The reality is, Bitcoin Cash has been a functional hardfork backed, sustained, and supported by some of the biggest players in crypto. Bitcoin Cash is also going to be hard forking a la' Ethereum Byzantine/Metropolis on November 13 for a code update to fix the Emergency Difficulty Adjustment: www.reddit.com Fundamentals: check Bitcoin Cash is in a giant symmetrical triangle after its pump to $850+ in August and its slow slide down ever since. That being said, we have a beautiful formation with bullish consolidation towards the squeeze point as shown by OBV and Willy21. Also of note is WWV evidences that we've had extended periods of distribution, with some of the most violent distribution volume being after the October 17 dump. The October 17 pump was also the second largest accumulation since the August pump, yet, price remains healthy and has stayed with the trendline rather than breaking down like IOTA. The first projection from a non-manic pump-high in the triangle produces a target that conveniently lines up with the 0.786 fib almost perfectly. Price action: check Politics: who cares when you can double your money on the first leg up and you're dealing with something that has a known price-ceiling of $6,200+? If price breaks out to $360-400 and holds, expect one of the most amazing events in history to occur. If I am right about what is about to happen, Bitcoin Cash will vortex in a tremendous amount of new users to crypto. Bitcoin Cash will resurrect what the Bitcoin community was in earlier, less bubble-collapsed time periods. Bitcoin Cash is the biggest bear trap of all time. What you think can happen and what is actually happening are two completely different things.
BLong
by RiversAndMountains
5
Bitcoin - The Calm Before the StormDuring the run from 5.8 to 6.2k there were substantially less margin longs on Finex, averaging in the range of 20-24k as opposed to 30-35k on the way from $4900. General bullishness, velocity, price action, and confidence in the current situation has come to a taper. It's like the end of a party when you aren't that drunk anymore, are pretty tired, someone threw up, they turn the music off and the lights on, and tell everyone that you don't have to go home, but you can't stay here. The volume, momentum, and time we took to get here has reached a feverish pitch. How do we get to $6,500 and $7,500 under current velocity? It seems as hard as trying to climb the last few thousand meters of Everest. The reality is the pattern we are within since the original bump to $5800 is a rising wedge. The pattern at $5900 - $6200 was an ascending channel, which brokedown, and formed an even steeper ascending channel, which is quickly running out of steam, volume, and momentum. It is already within the oversold area of Willy21 while price can barely hold $6000, and WWV shows that all those coins that were bought on the way up are like an avalanche waiting to be triggered. We closed the 4H, 12H, and Weekly candles below $6,000. The pump ran out of steam and things are quiet. This is not a good sign. In order to maintain parabolic price movement and gains you must maintain parabolic volume. With the majority of the market losing money every movement, that is exceedingly more and more difficult. What goes up, must come down. OBV indicates that the upward momentum is genuinely having an exceedingly difficult time The terrifying reality of where we are right now is we visited $5100 only 4 days ago. If this pattern breaks down and falls through the cloud the real panic will first have a chance to bounce at $4850-$4950, our previous ATH. Failing that we will be facing prior resistance line at the $4,600 range. In my opinion, it is exceedingly difficult for Bitcoin to maintain its Northern movement without a shakeout and a reset. FOMO is your enemy. Remember, this is Bitcoin. Bitcoin is a raging long-term bull, but it cann't go straight up.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by RiversAndMountains
3
DIGITAL NECKLACE: An analogy for blockchain valueTranscript: One of my previous posts aimed to justify the price that Bitcoin has. It's value is the accumulation of work put in by miners over quintillions of hashes. The current block is 491040. Taking data from historical hashrates, I get 193,142,784,388,787 terahashes in total. The data I can't easily get is how much each hash or terahash costs. Using 200 W power draw for 1 GH/s and 0.08 USD KW/h for prices. Let's try doing this via assuming Bitcoin were fully centralized. - Suppose a single person is hashing this. - His hashrate is 702,161.589 TH/s since 2009. Finally his power draw would be Hashrate / WattageCard. This gives a total of 3.5 GW. This person has been drawing 3.5GW on his rig since 2009. Now taking in the price into account: Operational cost = 2.46M USD/year @ {3.5GW, $0.08 KW/hr} Since that's the cost per year, and the data I used spans averages over 9 years, total cost of the network has been around 24M USD. If the calculations are valid, that means that in the market, the cost of operation is only 20% of the price. Note that since this is from the supply side, no prices of Bitcoin have to be taken into account. It's simply operational cost assuming constant electricity prices. If we now consider capital, if each card costs on average 600 dollars, and 1 out of 100 ARM/AMD/NVDIA units are dedicated to mining, I speculate that 100,000 cards and cores have been dedicated to mining. That cost makes mining go up to 60M USD. In total, electrical costs and invested capital, we could approximate that 80M USD have gone into Bitcoin mining. According to the current price and market cap report, there is a 20M surplus in costs not considered here and speculation. At the time of writing, the market value is 101M. That brings me to the second part of this writing. While we can agree that Proof-of-Work is an abstract concept, the previous calculations don't make it that different from the invented jobs without purpose throughout the history of the United States, trying to cover up financial failure and trying to keep unemployment at bay. Once we take history into account, that 20M gap can be explained with what we, people in crypto, appreciate. Let me exemplify with a tangible creation, more relatable to non-savvy users. Consider the following: There is a group of people at the beach. They find a string and some beads, so they decide to tie a really string knot and add their beads. On those beads, they write their names, and they write the name of the previous bead. They leave the beach with some instructions for the necklace. As time goes on, people find the necklace and add their own beads, following the rules. If someone notices that a bead isn't following the rules, that bead is taken out and the necklace keeps the tradition. This necklace started tied to a pole on the beach. The first users added a few dozen beads. That makes the necklace perhaps 10 centimeters long. That's shorter than an adult hand. But after years, 9 to be more precise, the line has almost half-a-million beads. That's already around 2 kilometers long. It's no longer just the price of the beads and the effort people have put into threading them. There is some human value put into the trust and care. It's more than just a beach object with beads. It's part of the history of everyone involved in the creation of this. That is how we see Bitcoin, in a more abstract sense. It's more than just electrical costs and burned GPUs. It's forks and news. Fighting FUD and losing money over hacks. It's seeing your networth rise despite others telling you to sell, because you are part of the chain.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn1038536
1
Bitcoin - Danger, Will RobinsonWe are at a key point in history. Anyone believing we're not in or very close to the ultimate apex of this major cycle is suffering from bull hysteria, and should be careful. That being said, anyone believing this is going to be a market collapse situation are suffering from bear hysteria, and should be careful as well. In my previous post I called the risk of a Bump and Run Reversal at 5.9k-6.2k. As it stands now, we have some major indicators that show our dip here at $6,150 may not be a simple dip to $5,850 before rocket train to $6,800 like many people are thinking. This morning's $500 spike was some of the largest volume in history. It was more volume than the $500 jump from $5,100, and more volume than any of the wave of $4,900 to $5,900 last week. This is a good thing, because volume shows real buying pressure. But it's also a bad thing, because price is parabolic and volume is parabolic, and to sustain this price, volume has to remain high in a situation where we fundamentally have lost a lot of people who have gone broke during Bitcoin's previous corrective cycles and the pain of altcoins. In 2 weeks, Bitcoin has seen $1,500+ in gains. That means that there are a lot of coins that have been accumulated as inventory by the large players, which have yet to be released back to the retail traders that make all of the mistakes and are the source of all of the profit. This is especially true in our current pattern at a new ATH. There has been a lot of accumulation and not very much distribution, as evidenced by WWV. OBV is down compared to price action and Willy peaked at a very high point. We are effectively in a double top pattern, and although those are often reversed with Bitcoin, sometimes they do not reverse until violently dumped. I now believe that there is a very high chance we will see the level of dump described in my previous post before proceeding upward to the final stage. Right now there are so many longs holding exposed positions that funding on Mex is still 0.375%/8 hours. Finex has had 3k BTC worth of longs added to the books in the last 24 hours. There are so many people praying to the moon, that it's impossible to get to the moon, but easy to crash through the cloud. Our first 15 minute red candle was a $157 drop on Mex swap and a $200 drop on Futures. This is a major crack to the run up and we may be entering an icy corrective weekend where bull mania produces a heavy hangover.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by RiversAndMountains
3
Who knows how high this #Bitcoin bubble will go? #Over9000It's impossible to guess tops. But let's just try anyway. Theory 1: By Elliott Wave Theory, wave 3 is the longest and wave 1 and 5 are the shortest. By this logic, wave 5 should end at 6.8k or lower. Theory 2: Bitcoin market exhibits high levels of emotional behaviour - evident from historic cycles of extremely volatile price action, characterised by over-extended exuberant buying. By this logic, price could extend further than textbook theories. Theory 3: 2017 price action was built with a "better foundation" compared to 2013. the initial build up in price action was done over a longer time frame and with relatively less exuberant moves (compared to 2013), allowing for comparatively steadier growth today. By this logic, my assumption is that price will be able to extend much further on the last leg, as opposed to wave 3 being the largest. Theory 4: Psychological levels. $10,000 - will we barely reach it? Or will we be able to shoot past it for a moment before it comes crashing down? Based on my above hypotheses, my guess boils down to this: Bitcoin will peak at slightly over $9000. Then come the dragonball memes. And all the talk about $10,000 to get people to hold on tight, but it never reaches 10k. In fact, it barely stays above $9000, before crashing a good 30% or more (and if more than 30% - enter the bear market).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by onemanatatime
4
Ripple to DOUBLE? Breaking out now?Ripple XRP has been consolidating since May and it's approaching the convergence of it's consolidation range. It really looks antsy to break out here and I'm loving this chart. The 200 day moving average is coming up to meet the price. That means the overall trend is finally meeting the price and that is usually a recipe for a bounce. We've been monitoring this situation for weeks now and it is playing out exactly how we predicted. If we get a breakout of this range, a strong daily candle above .26, my final target is the 161.8 Fib retracement of the consolidation range. That's pretty big guys, that means a doubling in price before this is all said and done. Will we get there overnight? probably not. A shorter term trade would be those old highs at .42, but that is still a 50% move. Strap on your seat belts if we break this consolidation with Ripple it's going to be one hell of a ride. Long above .26 Stop under last pivot low and 20 moving average at .20 Target 1 = .42 (old highs) Target 2 = .60 (161.8 Fib retracement of consolidation range) !! Follow me and PM me with chart requests !! MY TRADING METHOD: I keep my analysis simple. Good analysis always is. I use Price Patterns, Moving Averages, and RSI for my analysis. I use the 1 day for trend analysis and 60 minute for trade entry For my Targets I use Fibonacci projections, measured moves, support and resistance. Successful trading means proper risk sizing and trading small so you can stay in the game.
Long
by BerlinTrader591
4
BITCOIN: THE END OF AN ERAYou guys know i am THE bear. Neither alste. nor khun, bagofXMR is THE bear :joy: NYA contentious (thanks to the core dev team and its fanatics) fork will show to the world bitcoin is going to split for third time in 3 months, a grotesque show that will set back bitcoin a couple of years at the very least (from mainstream institutional investors perspective). Profit taking must happen and the monthly chart shows we reached a top: A huge hanging man for the september candle MACD over 900 and starting to slow down and turn down StochRSI recently crossed bearish and it is over 30 months in the overbought zone RSI peaked at 95 and it is going down with enough room to dump for a few months before reaching oversold zone. Weekly chart also looking topish: Strong RSI bearish divergence MACD converging with signal potentially crossing bearish soon MA 5,10 bearish crossover Daily chart also suggest dip buying lost strength Volume descending Failure to break resistance Stoch RSI bearish crossover MACD converging probably about to cross bearish Last but least, 4h chart is a bit doomy too Rising wedge broke down Bearish RSI divergence Bearish MACD divergence Price breaking 55 EMA, something that usually triggers panic as you can see in the chart (when price trades below 21,34 and 55 EMA's there is a dump following it) What else do you need? Check related ideas for my bear credentials in bitcoin
BNC:BLXShort
by bagofXMR
12
My thoughts about the current cycle and the bubble speculationDuring the very early years of Bitcoin, and cryptocurrency in general, there began the mania. I'm talking about before 2015. This mania was centered around the Dark Net markets and cryptocurrency was mainly used as a means to achieve extreme transaction privacy. You could make a transaction to anyone in the world without a bank, or any regulatory stature and you wouldn't have to even be physically there. Of course this is perfect for criminals, it's exactly the solution to the biggest issue they've ever faced; transacting without third party intervention. So they used it, and it was climbing in price astronomically. Then the government started fighting back against the Dark Net websites. They shut down Silk Road, Mt. Gox was hacked (not by the government, but this definitely contributed to the downfall of Bitcoin in 2014), the Chinese government banned financial institutions from using Bitcoin, Chinese exchanges bank accounts were closed, BitLicense was proposed, and Bitstamp was hacked (again, not by a government). Every single one of these events stifled Bitcoin's mania. The Bitcoin name was tarnished with these events. Associated with major crime and the legendary Dark Net, Black Hat hackers, scams, and of course the old saying "Well how can something intangible be worth anything?" I propose to you all, in the ellipse is the famed Bitcoin Bubble. The "Black Swan." This is not to say there will not be another bubble, but that the first bubble has already popped. I compare this bubble to the popular Dotcom bubble of the late 90's because after 2014, Bitcoin lost almost 90% of its value, same with most Dotcom companies. However, those prices did not drop to 0 simply because they had a useful impact for society. Dotcoms became some of the largest companies known today. Amazon especially; their stock is valued at $1,000. I've outlined what I believe to be Bitcoin's cycle so far. We still have wave 4 to finish and wave 5 is coming. This is pure speculation, but I think that once Bitcoin's fifth wave finishes and the correction starts, it will be a very large correction indeed. This is because right now I see things like adoption, big money and a much wider array of exposure happening. When I walk down the street and ask someone, "Hey, could I get your opinion on cryptocurrency?" I get a quizzical response, but once I say "Bitcoin" they respond with, "Oh yeah, I've heard about that!" What I believe to be happening is that the "herd," like the ACTUAL herd of the world is still oblivious to cryptocurrencies, but the word is spreading. Anyways, to get back on track, the square in the chart is the part where big money is really starting to come into play. People are starting to see not just the worth of this "crypto-craze," but the worth of the blockchain technology itself. Just like the aftermath of the Dotcom bubble, now there are massive companies out there that are solely internet-based and worth much more than Bitcoin. However, the issue that I am currently seeing is that fear spreads like wildfire and the internet has created hyper-communication to the point that when people read online that China is banning ICO's and shutting down exchanges (even though they only account for less than 15% of the whole market and they are probably just trying to find decent regulations) they tend to panic-sell. Panic-sell to the point of driving the price down by about 41% in just the first corrective wave (Wave A, not in the chart mind you). This is with big money and the early adopters right now. Imagine what happens when you get almost everyone on board. People who are not familiar with Bitcoin's volatility, or "buy the dip," people who do not know much about markets but just wanted to buy into the hype at $4,500 then see their investment drop by over 20% in a day or two. Of course, this is all speculation, just watch out for the fallout of Wave 5.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by UnknownUnicorn1317862
ok, Bitcoin Weekly , phases of Bubbles and some thoughtsTurns out that we have 2-3 weeks to stand still while BTC smoothly goes down and touches to the weekly channel support around 3.600-3.700 So, I took a look at the Bitcoin history, as we have time right? It seems, the excitement about bitcoin, has changed gear for the last 2 years. And if specifically talking, RSI , since the end of 2015 has been touching to 50 range and jumping back up and never dropping below 50.That is a sign of a more dynamic and aggressive market But, previously it was not the case. So, I decided to examine and tried to understand of this change's process, in our bubble's phase I to phase II. (Don't get me wrong, this is a new born bubble, no way it is close to bust!!) Tracking back in time the the date 2 November 2015 seems to be the date, where we have up geared to phase II. That seems to me so! But any objection is accepted. There is huge green volume , not affecting the prices on weekly basis, but after that date, the momentum is increasing and slope of the price action starts to increase. For some time, second derivative for the price action is zero while after some time, second derivative starts to increase too. Checking back to the mentioned date, it seems there 3 issues , that people are talking about that can effect bitcoin; I am not exactly sure what was the trigger but they are; - Financial troubles in Greece - Some kind of a Russian Financial Social Networking fraud event - EU courts deciding that VAT tax is not applicable on bitcoin ( this is my take ) There might be some of you, who were actually in the market at that times, I would appreciate any other possibility as well.It would be nice to identify a critical point of history of bitcoin bubble. Anyway, other that, it seems, we will have to wait at least 2-3 weeks more , while BTC price slides down and RSI by the way touches 50 again. I am expecting Head and shoulders pattern to form to be completed while BTC price dropping to 3.600-3.700 area. Probably , when we reach the bottom, the difference between Chineese exchange BTC prices and other BTC exchange price difference will not be there anymore. That will be a another clue , probably. Thats all folks. Tell me what you think Wish I had left some Game of Thrones not watched , don't know how to spend the time now
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Baris_Sozen
5
PIVX: My FAVORITE CHART right nowThe Daily PIVXUSD is CERTAINLY my favorite chart right now. As all the other coins have fallen along with Bitcoin, PIVX held up nicely. The levels are clear here, and clear levels are the most important thing for good analysis because we know our stops and targets clearly. If this thing gets moving, it could easily 2x, 3x, or 10x it's price. We had a huge base build from April to August and now it's broken to the upside. The bigger the base, bigger the breakout - it's like rocket fuel. Entry: Long above 3.00 Target 1: 5.00 (261.8% Fib Level) Target 2: 7.00 (361.8% Fib Level) Stop: Daily candle close below 3.00 If PIVX closes below 3.00, then it's a lost trade, but until then, this is one of the strongest patterns out there. Remember, technical analysis is more about finding clear levels to trade against. High reward targets and low risk stops mean we can make more than a few mistakes and still come out ahead. A trader with a win percentage over 50% is just a lucky trader. But the best traders win 30-40% and come out ahead because they have good reward to risk ratios. ------- !! PM me with any trading questions !! MY TRADING METHOD: I keep my analysis simple. Good analysis always is. I use Price Patterns, Moving Averages, and RSI for my analysis. I use the 1 day for trend analysis and 60 minute for trade entry For my Targets I use Fibonacci projections, measured moves, support and resistance. Successful trading means proper risk sizing and trading small so you can stay in the game.
PLong
by BerlinTrader591
6
Iconomi Might Be Close to BottomFor the last few months Iconomi has been disappointing for traders and investors. The community constantly demonstrates how frustrated those that held on to this cryptocurrency are. The few optimistic posts aside, more and more people have sold off their Iconomi, often times taking big losses (which can be seen by looking at how the cryptocurrency has been performing). This idea is here to show that at this present point in time it is really not worth it to sell Iconomi at a loss. We might have reached a bottom or at least we should be very close to reaching it. Even for those that are not familiar with Elliott Waves ( en.wikipedia.org ) the pattern should be clearly recognizable. We are reaching what is the end of a whole cycle. Furthermore we can spot a typical bubble pattern on the Iconomi chart. For reference: i.imgur.com On this bubble pattern we are also clearly at the bottom. As the "mean" shown there we can see the "Uptrend line 1" or in the worst case the "Uptrend line 2". Around the second uptrend line will be end of our free fall. Some may argue that we have yet to reach the "despair" phase, but that phase is not always present. Either way, we are close to the bottom . What happens after we "return to the mean"? There starts the first phase again. People will slowly start to accumulate Iconomi. The smart money will make a first step, since most investors will at first be insecure, which is understandable by looking at the chart history. And before we know it we will be ready for take off. Iconomi will soon have the chance to shine again. After all, the fundamentals of this cryptocurrency are solid, as opposed to a lot of other mindlessly hyped ones.
I
by TALife
9
The Five Horsemen FAANGRight now many analysts agree that the market is overvalued, but many believe that just because it is overvalued doesn't mean it needs to be corrected. Many traders now trade with cognitive dissonance because the market is overdue for a correction. Just because there may be a "bubble" that doesn't mean that it will "pop". But I think that due to and overdated correction some markets may take a hit. And especially markets that are in a "bubble" or are built upon synthetic or "abstract revenue". I think that there is a tech bubble right now, and there are clear indicators that the market is built upon what I would call "abstract revenue". "Abstract revenue" is a term that I use to call a firm that is overvalued, and has the plan to go public or grow the company. I think that "abstract revenue" comes from the Silicon Valley Mindest that "not all businesses are created equal" idea. Some of the troubles with tech startups is that the owners and investors try to scale the business as a startup, which usually tends to give companies an overvaluation or too much work for itself. Many young companies have been struggling such as Zenefits, Dropbox, Theranos, Jet.com, Flipboard, Square, Snapchat, Zirtualy, and Homejoy. But even with these murky waters investors still invest in tech, and VC-sponsorships still take firms public. Tech has grown a lot lately and that is a bit worrisome. To begin I will start off with the macroeconomic trends that I see on the public side. I will start with NASDAQ:AAPL the biggest tech firm in the world. On the balance sheet, they hold around $246 billion dollars. My first question is "why doesn't apple acquire more companies?" Which is usually responded with its overseas accounts that are better for taxes and investments. Apple doesn't necessarily need to buy companies, but if the market is going up and there is a lot of cash it is unusual on why they aren't acquiring firms right now. I want to look at Apple's latest acquisitions that can be calculated. In 2017 Apple acquired a company, Lattice Data for around $200m. In 2015 it had just raised $20m, and the company only has 20 engineers. This would mean that the company has grown 1000% in 2 years, which is a clear indicator that the company is overvalued. Apple isn't the only company that holds a lot of cash and isn't too interested in acquiring. Facebook has around $3.1 billion in cash and $6.2 in marketable securities. All of these big tech firms are holding cash, while the tech startups have been booming and they are not acquiring. Why would they not acquire? Maybe they see that the market is overvalued. But what difference does it make if the market is overvalued unless it is going to be corrected? Maybe the companies are holding onto cash to cushion themselves, but those are clear indicators among the big tech firms. On the public-side of the market, there has been less IPOs this year and if the market is performing well then why aren't they going public. On the private side, I think that many companies are overvalued, the only way to know is to look at acquisitions, young IPOs, and VC-sponsorship. Many of them are made up of small companies that I think are overvalued. In the end I believe that the tech market, the venture capitalism market, and the private tech startup market is built upon "abstract revenue" and is in a bubble. And although the bubble is not planned to pop, the market is overdue for a correction, therefore, I believe that the tech is in a bubble like situation.
TVC:IXICShort
by DiegoDA
The Death of BitcoinLadies and Gentlemen, i present the obvious Death of Bitcoin . Many expected this moment coming and now it's there. After the next smooth journey to moon, or the next journey to let's say $5,000, $7,000 $10,000 (?) the bitcoin will die a sudden death (and with it many more). This will be the point where greed will win over reason, being the moment all the world will see the bitcoin fail within the next few months. Probably in November or December, just my guess. Hundreds of families who invested all their family savings in asia will be ruined including all the casinos, shops and investors will suffer, how bad. Will you be in the next journey to moon? This is a game with fire now. Yes, many have said that before but now it's serious. Why? Just look at the price dude. You're moving millions and millions of dollars around, what the heck are you even doing? When it comes down to it, dollars are all that count. Grounding will be hard, i predict a price lock under 1000, maybe 300. After the future of the coin is at stake, it will reveal that it is unsuitable for practical things like fast payment without third party provider and mining is a waste of ressources, other, newer, commercial blockchain developments will take the place and the hype will be vanish in unimportance where it came from. Furthermore all the inside trades which eat themself up in all their greed will reveal, some exchanges had already to leave, you know, and still big players make the market. I don't want to be part in this no matter the winnings. Have fun. However, if you look in the order book selling 1 satoshi for 1 million dollar, thats probably me. See you on the moon.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ncx
26
Revisiting the DOT COM bubble. Could we see a DO-OVER?Pay attention folks. The NASDAQ and the global markets are setting up for a repeat of the DOT COM bubble burst. In the late 1990s, the DOT COM rise was attributed to a number of factors, most importantly the unique situation where the US was leading the global in technology advancements and web services. Investment in these firms was focused on hope and dreams that tech startups would achieve untold success and profits. Hundreds of billions poured into startups and small shops in the hopes that they would be able to grasp just small percentages of the market and return value like Yahoo, AOL and others. Then came the crash. The realization of value started near the end of 1999 (after an extended HYPE phase). It became evident that GROUP THINKING resolved the risks to nearly non-issues. People purchased shares because it would never end - but it did. And the Sept 11 terrorist attack in NYC was the icing on the cake in terms of changing public perception. After these attacks, the realization quickly became clear that "technology was not all that" and that other issues were more pressing. Thus, a nearly 60% decline from the highs began. Could we be setting up for another, almost exact, price move in the near future? Check out this post and the next one I'm submitting. DOT COM DO-OVER in the next 12 month? What makes 2012~2017 different from 1995~2000? You tell me?
NYSE:XCIShort
by BradMatheny