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Bubble

Bitcoin - Danger, Will RobinsonWe are at a key point in history. Anyone believing we're not in or very close to the ultimate apex of this major cycle is suffering from bull hysteria, and should be careful. That being said, anyone believing this is going to be a market collapse situation are suffering from bear hysteria, and should be careful as well. In my previous post I called the risk of a Bump and Run Reversal at 5.9k-6.2k. As it stands now, we have some major indicators that show our dip here at $6,150 may not be a simple dip to $5,850 before rocket train to $6,800 like many people are thinking. This morning's $500 spike was some of the largest volume in history. It was more volume than the $500 jump from $5,100, and more volume than any of the wave of $4,900 to $5,900 last week. This is a good thing, because volume shows real buying pressure. But it's also a bad thing, because price is parabolic and volume is parabolic, and to sustain this price, volume has to remain high in a situation where we fundamentally have lost a lot of people who have gone broke during Bitcoin's previous corrective cycles and the pain of altcoins. In 2 weeks, Bitcoin has seen $1,500+ in gains. That means that there are a lot of coins that have been accumulated as inventory by the large players, which have yet to be released back to the retail traders that make all of the mistakes and are the source of all of the profit. This is especially true in our current pattern at a new ATH. There has been a lot of accumulation and not very much distribution, as evidenced by WWV. OBV is down compared to price action and Willy peaked at a very high point. We are effectively in a double top pattern, and although those are often reversed with Bitcoin, sometimes they do not reverse until violently dumped. I now believe that there is a very high chance we will see the level of dump described in my previous post before proceeding upward to the final stage. Right now there are so many longs holding exposed positions that funding on Mex is still 0.375%/8 hours. Finex has had 3k BTC worth of longs added to the books in the last 24 hours. There are so many people praying to the moon, that it's impossible to get to the moon, but easy to crash through the cloud. Our first 15 minute red candle was a $157 drop on Mex swap and a $200 drop on Futures. This is a major crack to the run up and we may be entering an icy corrective weekend where bull mania produces a heavy hangover.
BITMEX:BTCUSD.PShort
by RiversAndMountains
3
Who knows how high this #Bitcoin bubble will go? #Over9000It's impossible to guess tops. But let's just try anyway. Theory 1: By Elliott Wave Theory, wave 3 is the longest and wave 1 and 5 are the shortest. By this logic, wave 5 should end at 6.8k or lower. Theory 2: Bitcoin market exhibits high levels of emotional behaviour - evident from historic cycles of extremely volatile price action, characterised by over-extended exuberant buying. By this logic, price could extend further than textbook theories. Theory 3: 2017 price action was built with a "better foundation" compared to 2013. the initial build up in price action was done over a longer time frame and with relatively less exuberant moves (compared to 2013), allowing for comparatively steadier growth today. By this logic, my assumption is that price will be able to extend much further on the last leg, as opposed to wave 3 being the largest. Theory 4: Psychological levels. $10,000 - will we barely reach it? Or will we be able to shoot past it for a moment before it comes crashing down? Based on my above hypotheses, my guess boils down to this: Bitcoin will peak at slightly over $9000. Then come the dragonball memes. And all the talk about $10,000 to get people to hold on tight, but it never reaches 10k. In fact, it barely stays above $9000, before crashing a good 30% or more (and if more than 30% - enter the bear market).
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by onemanatatime
4
Ripple to DOUBLE? Breaking out now?Ripple XRP has been consolidating since May and it's approaching the convergence of it's consolidation range. It really looks antsy to break out here and I'm loving this chart. The 200 day moving average is coming up to meet the price. That means the overall trend is finally meeting the price and that is usually a recipe for a bounce. We've been monitoring this situation for weeks now and it is playing out exactly how we predicted. If we get a breakout of this range, a strong daily candle above .26, my final target is the 161.8 Fib retracement of the consolidation range. That's pretty big guys, that means a doubling in price before this is all said and done. Will we get there overnight? probably not. A shorter term trade would be those old highs at .42, but that is still a 50% move. Strap on your seat belts if we break this consolidation with Ripple it's going to be one hell of a ride. Long above .26 Stop under last pivot low and 20 moving average at .20 Target 1 = .42 (old highs) Target 2 = .60 (161.8 Fib retracement of consolidation range) !! Follow me and PM me with chart requests !! MY TRADING METHOD: I keep my analysis simple. Good analysis always is. I use Price Patterns, Moving Averages, and RSI for my analysis. I use the 1 day for trend analysis and 60 minute for trade entry For my Targets I use Fibonacci projections, measured moves, support and resistance. Successful trading means proper risk sizing and trading small so you can stay in the game.
Long
by BerlinTrader591
4
BITCOIN: THE END OF AN ERAYou guys know i am THE bear. Neither alste. nor khun, bagofXMR is THE bear :joy: NYA contentious (thanks to the core dev team and its fanatics) fork will show to the world bitcoin is going to split for third time in 3 months, a grotesque show that will set back bitcoin a couple of years at the very least (from mainstream institutional investors perspective). Profit taking must happen and the monthly chart shows we reached a top: A huge hanging man for the september candle MACD over 900 and starting to slow down and turn down StochRSI recently crossed bearish and it is over 30 months in the overbought zone RSI peaked at 95 and it is going down with enough room to dump for a few months before reaching oversold zone. Weekly chart also looking topish: Strong RSI bearish divergence MACD converging with signal potentially crossing bearish soon MA 5,10 bearish crossover Daily chart also suggest dip buying lost strength Volume descending Failure to break resistance Stoch RSI bearish crossover MACD converging probably about to cross bearish Last but least, 4h chart is a bit doomy too Rising wedge broke down Bearish RSI divergence Bearish MACD divergence Price breaking 55 EMA, something that usually triggers panic as you can see in the chart (when price trades below 21,34 and 55 EMA's there is a dump following it) What else do you need? Check related ideas for my bear credentials in bitcoin
BNC:BLXShort
by bagofXMR
12
My thoughts about the current cycle and the bubble speculationDuring the very early years of Bitcoin, and cryptocurrency in general, there began the mania. I'm talking about before 2015. This mania was centered around the Dark Net markets and cryptocurrency was mainly used as a means to achieve extreme transaction privacy. You could make a transaction to anyone in the world without a bank, or any regulatory stature and you wouldn't have to even be physically there. Of course this is perfect for criminals, it's exactly the solution to the biggest issue they've ever faced; transacting without third party intervention. So they used it, and it was climbing in price astronomically. Then the government started fighting back against the Dark Net websites. They shut down Silk Road, Mt. Gox was hacked (not by the government, but this definitely contributed to the downfall of Bitcoin in 2014), the Chinese government banned financial institutions from using Bitcoin, Chinese exchanges bank accounts were closed, BitLicense was proposed, and Bitstamp was hacked (again, not by a government). Every single one of these events stifled Bitcoin's mania. The Bitcoin name was tarnished with these events. Associated with major crime and the legendary Dark Net, Black Hat hackers, scams, and of course the old saying "Well how can something intangible be worth anything?" I propose to you all, in the ellipse is the famed Bitcoin Bubble. The "Black Swan." This is not to say there will not be another bubble, but that the first bubble has already popped. I compare this bubble to the popular Dotcom bubble of the late 90's because after 2014, Bitcoin lost almost 90% of its value, same with most Dotcom companies. However, those prices did not drop to 0 simply because they had a useful impact for society. Dotcoms became some of the largest companies known today. Amazon especially; their stock is valued at $1,000. I've outlined what I believe to be Bitcoin's cycle so far. We still have wave 4 to finish and wave 5 is coming. This is pure speculation, but I think that once Bitcoin's fifth wave finishes and the correction starts, it will be a very large correction indeed. This is because right now I see things like adoption, big money and a much wider array of exposure happening. When I walk down the street and ask someone, "Hey, could I get your opinion on cryptocurrency?" I get a quizzical response, but once I say "Bitcoin" they respond with, "Oh yeah, I've heard about that!" What I believe to be happening is that the "herd," like the ACTUAL herd of the world is still oblivious to cryptocurrencies, but the word is spreading. Anyways, to get back on track, the square in the chart is the part where big money is really starting to come into play. People are starting to see not just the worth of this "crypto-craze," but the worth of the blockchain technology itself. Just like the aftermath of the Dotcom bubble, now there are massive companies out there that are solely internet-based and worth much more than Bitcoin. However, the issue that I am currently seeing is that fear spreads like wildfire and the internet has created hyper-communication to the point that when people read online that China is banning ICO's and shutting down exchanges (even though they only account for less than 15% of the whole market and they are probably just trying to find decent regulations) they tend to panic-sell. Panic-sell to the point of driving the price down by about 41% in just the first corrective wave (Wave A, not in the chart mind you). This is with big money and the early adopters right now. Imagine what happens when you get almost everyone on board. People who are not familiar with Bitcoin's volatility, or "buy the dip," people who do not know much about markets but just wanted to buy into the hype at $4,500 then see their investment drop by over 20% in a day or two. Of course, this is all speculation, just watch out for the fallout of Wave 5.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by UnknownUnicorn1317862
ok, Bitcoin Weekly , phases of Bubbles and some thoughtsTurns out that we have 2-3 weeks to stand still while BTC smoothly goes down and touches to the weekly channel support around 3.600-3.700 So, I took a look at the Bitcoin history, as we have time right? It seems, the excitement about bitcoin, has changed gear for the last 2 years. And if specifically talking, RSI , since the end of 2015 has been touching to 50 range and jumping back up and never dropping below 50.That is a sign of a more dynamic and aggressive market But, previously it was not the case. So, I decided to examine and tried to understand of this change's process, in our bubble's phase I to phase II. (Don't get me wrong, this is a new born bubble, no way it is close to bust!!) Tracking back in time the the date 2 November 2015 seems to be the date, where we have up geared to phase II. That seems to me so! But any objection is accepted. There is huge green volume , not affecting the prices on weekly basis, but after that date, the momentum is increasing and slope of the price action starts to increase. For some time, second derivative for the price action is zero while after some time, second derivative starts to increase too. Checking back to the mentioned date, it seems there 3 issues , that people are talking about that can effect bitcoin; I am not exactly sure what was the trigger but they are; - Financial troubles in Greece - Some kind of a Russian Financial Social Networking fraud event - EU courts deciding that VAT tax is not applicable on bitcoin ( this is my take ) There might be some of you, who were actually in the market at that times, I would appreciate any other possibility as well.It would be nice to identify a critical point of history of bitcoin bubble. Anyway, other that, it seems, we will have to wait at least 2-3 weeks more , while BTC price slides down and RSI by the way touches 50 again. I am expecting Head and shoulders pattern to form to be completed while BTC price dropping to 3.600-3.700 area. Probably , when we reach the bottom, the difference between Chineese exchange BTC prices and other BTC exchange price difference will not be there anymore. That will be a another clue , probably. Thats all folks. Tell me what you think Wish I had left some Game of Thrones not watched , don't know how to spend the time now
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Baris_Sozen
5
PIVX: My FAVORITE CHART right nowThe Daily PIVXUSD is CERTAINLY my favorite chart right now. As all the other coins have fallen along with Bitcoin, PIVX held up nicely. The levels are clear here, and clear levels are the most important thing for good analysis because we know our stops and targets clearly. If this thing gets moving, it could easily 2x, 3x, or 10x it's price. We had a huge base build from April to August and now it's broken to the upside. The bigger the base, bigger the breakout - it's like rocket fuel. Entry: Long above 3.00 Target 1: 5.00 (261.8% Fib Level) Target 2: 7.00 (361.8% Fib Level) Stop: Daily candle close below 3.00 If PIVX closes below 3.00, then it's a lost trade, but until then, this is one of the strongest patterns out there. Remember, technical analysis is more about finding clear levels to trade against. High reward targets and low risk stops mean we can make more than a few mistakes and still come out ahead. A trader with a win percentage over 50% is just a lucky trader. But the best traders win 30-40% and come out ahead because they have good reward to risk ratios. ------- !! PM me with any trading questions !! MY TRADING METHOD: I keep my analysis simple. Good analysis always is. I use Price Patterns, Moving Averages, and RSI for my analysis. I use the 1 day for trend analysis and 60 minute for trade entry For my Targets I use Fibonacci projections, measured moves, support and resistance. Successful trading means proper risk sizing and trading small so you can stay in the game.
PLong
by BerlinTrader591
6
Iconomi Might Be Close to BottomFor the last few months Iconomi has been disappointing for traders and investors. The community constantly demonstrates how frustrated those that held on to this cryptocurrency are. The few optimistic posts aside, more and more people have sold off their Iconomi, often times taking big losses (which can be seen by looking at how the cryptocurrency has been performing). This idea is here to show that at this present point in time it is really not worth it to sell Iconomi at a loss. We might have reached a bottom or at least we should be very close to reaching it. Even for those that are not familiar with Elliott Waves ( en.wikipedia.org ) the pattern should be clearly recognizable. We are reaching what is the end of a whole cycle. Furthermore we can spot a typical bubble pattern on the Iconomi chart. For reference: i.imgur.com On this bubble pattern we are also clearly at the bottom. As the "mean" shown there we can see the "Uptrend line 1" or in the worst case the "Uptrend line 2". Around the second uptrend line will be end of our free fall. Some may argue that we have yet to reach the "despair" phase, but that phase is not always present. Either way, we are close to the bottom . What happens after we "return to the mean"? There starts the first phase again. People will slowly start to accumulate Iconomi. The smart money will make a first step, since most investors will at first be insecure, which is understandable by looking at the chart history. And before we know it we will be ready for take off. Iconomi will soon have the chance to shine again. After all, the fundamentals of this cryptocurrency are solid, as opposed to a lot of other mindlessly hyped ones.
I
by TALife
9
The Five Horsemen FAANGRight now many analysts agree that the market is overvalued, but many believe that just because it is overvalued doesn't mean it needs to be corrected. Many traders now trade with cognitive dissonance because the market is overdue for a correction. Just because there may be a "bubble" that doesn't mean that it will "pop". But I think that due to and overdated correction some markets may take a hit. And especially markets that are in a "bubble" or are built upon synthetic or "abstract revenue". I think that there is a tech bubble right now, and there are clear indicators that the market is built upon what I would call "abstract revenue". "Abstract revenue" is a term that I use to call a firm that is overvalued, and has the plan to go public or grow the company. I think that "abstract revenue" comes from the Silicon Valley Mindest that "not all businesses are created equal" idea. Some of the troubles with tech startups is that the owners and investors try to scale the business as a startup, which usually tends to give companies an overvaluation or too much work for itself. Many young companies have been struggling such as Zenefits, Dropbox, Theranos, Jet.com, Flipboard, Square, Snapchat, Zirtualy, and Homejoy. But even with these murky waters investors still invest in tech, and VC-sponsorships still take firms public. Tech has grown a lot lately and that is a bit worrisome. To begin I will start off with the macroeconomic trends that I see on the public side. I will start with NASDAQ:AAPL the biggest tech firm in the world. On the balance sheet, they hold around $246 billion dollars. My first question is "why doesn't apple acquire more companies?" Which is usually responded with its overseas accounts that are better for taxes and investments. Apple doesn't necessarily need to buy companies, but if the market is going up and there is a lot of cash it is unusual on why they aren't acquiring firms right now. I want to look at Apple's latest acquisitions that can be calculated. In 2017 Apple acquired a company, Lattice Data for around $200m. In 2015 it had just raised $20m, and the company only has 20 engineers. This would mean that the company has grown 1000% in 2 years, which is a clear indicator that the company is overvalued. Apple isn't the only company that holds a lot of cash and isn't too interested in acquiring. Facebook has around $3.1 billion in cash and $6.2 in marketable securities. All of these big tech firms are holding cash, while the tech startups have been booming and they are not acquiring. Why would they not acquire? Maybe they see that the market is overvalued. But what difference does it make if the market is overvalued unless it is going to be corrected? Maybe the companies are holding onto cash to cushion themselves, but those are clear indicators among the big tech firms. On the public-side of the market, there has been less IPOs this year and if the market is performing well then why aren't they going public. On the private side, I think that many companies are overvalued, the only way to know is to look at acquisitions, young IPOs, and VC-sponsorship. Many of them are made up of small companies that I think are overvalued. In the end I believe that the tech market, the venture capitalism market, and the private tech startup market is built upon "abstract revenue" and is in a bubble. And although the bubble is not planned to pop, the market is overdue for a correction, therefore, I believe that the tech is in a bubble like situation.
TVC:IXICShort
by DiegoDA
The Death of BitcoinLadies and Gentlemen, i present the obvious Death of Bitcoin . Many expected this moment coming and now it's there. After the next smooth journey to moon, or the next journey to let's say $5,000, $7,000 $10,000 (?) the bitcoin will die a sudden death (and with it many more). This will be the point where greed will win over reason, being the moment all the world will see the bitcoin fail within the next few months. Probably in November or December, just my guess. Hundreds of families who invested all their family savings in asia will be ruined including all the casinos, shops and investors will suffer, how bad. Will you be in the next journey to moon? This is a game with fire now. Yes, many have said that before but now it's serious. Why? Just look at the price dude. You're moving millions and millions of dollars around, what the heck are you even doing? When it comes down to it, dollars are all that count. Grounding will be hard, i predict a price lock under 1000, maybe 300. After the future of the coin is at stake, it will reveal that it is unsuitable for practical things like fast payment without third party provider and mining is a waste of ressources, other, newer, commercial blockchain developments will take the place and the hype will be vanish in unimportance where it came from. Furthermore all the inside trades which eat themself up in all their greed will reveal, some exchanges had already to leave, you know, and still big players make the market. I don't want to be part in this no matter the winnings. Have fun. However, if you look in the order book selling 1 satoshi for 1 million dollar, thats probably me. See you on the moon.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ncx
26
Revisiting the DOT COM bubble. Could we see a DO-OVER?Pay attention folks. The NASDAQ and the global markets are setting up for a repeat of the DOT COM bubble burst. In the late 1990s, the DOT COM rise was attributed to a number of factors, most importantly the unique situation where the US was leading the global in technology advancements and web services. Investment in these firms was focused on hope and dreams that tech startups would achieve untold success and profits. Hundreds of billions poured into startups and small shops in the hopes that they would be able to grasp just small percentages of the market and return value like Yahoo, AOL and others. Then came the crash. The realization of value started near the end of 1999 (after an extended HYPE phase). It became evident that GROUP THINKING resolved the risks to nearly non-issues. People purchased shares because it would never end - but it did. And the Sept 11 terrorist attack in NYC was the icing on the cake in terms of changing public perception. After these attacks, the realization quickly became clear that "technology was not all that" and that other issues were more pressing. Thus, a nearly 60% decline from the highs began. Could we be setting up for another, almost exact, price move in the near future? Check out this post and the next one I'm submitting. DOT COM DO-OVER in the next 12 month? What makes 2012~2017 different from 1995~2000? You tell me?
NYSE:XCIShort
by BradMatheny
Ether - Bitcoin - bubble (Correlation)The Ethereum blockchain has been released in 2015 and is therefore still very new to the vast majority of the public. However, sharp rises in value recently have caused more and more news stations to pick up on this topic, publishing more and more articles about it. The consequence was that many could in fact see that there is a huge potential behind this technology and the projects based on it, yet, did not really understand how it in its core works or more basic, what it actually represents. This caused what some would call "dumb money" to be invested into cryptocurrencies and other blockchain tokens, pushing their prices even higher and causing more people to invest in them in a wave of excitement about blockchains and their seemingly unlimited possibilities. On the other hand, the last few bubbles were not too far in the past and therefore everyone knew that it was a bubble. The reason they still invested was simply that they thought the bubble was still at its beginning and not about to burst yet. Everyone, especially the "dumb money", was thinking they were being smarter than everyone else and saw themselves as the "smart money" (no-one likes to be seen as dumb) and in order to be the "smart money" they had to be out before the bubble would burst. On Monday the 12th of June, immediately after the end of the Bancor ICO which raised ether worth roughly $153 million, this wave of excitement finally reached an end. Since, unfortunately, Bancor can neither use ether to pay any kind of employees nor use them to rent premises or something like that which leaves them no other choice than selling at least some parts of their ether holdings in order to ensure that they will be able to cover their expenses. The drop briefly broke the excitement and caused more people to sell their holdings, yet, the price mostly recovered after the news leaked out that the ICO raised about $153 million in just a few hours, recreating the believe that there is still more upside potential. Though, what the actual "smart money" realised at this point or already had realised before was that due to the increasing amount of money flowing into ICO's (e.g. EOS), even bigger amounts of ether will be sold at one time and, thus, after a certain amount of time, entirely breaking the current excitement and causing the bubble to finally burst. Additionally, almost simultaneously, there appeared some fake news about Ethereum's co-founders Vitalik Buterin, having died in a car accident, making prices drop even more. On Sunday the 17th of July, just after the price hitted its low at $137, it seemed for many investors low enough to get back in the game and buy some ether. Also, now that the bubble seems to be gone, investors are again considering ether as an investment with "guaranteed returns". However, all the news which created this abnormal excitement around the blockchain blockchain have been leaked now, meaning that there is nothing to get excited about anymore which is why we are still in a bear market with ethereum and other cryptocurrencies. As the chart above shows, there is a significant correlation between the current ether price chart and the bitcoin bubble in 2013/2014 which is only logical since the situations in both cases are quite similar: 1. A huge wave of news, causing more and more people to get excited. 2. Excitement breaks (no "new" news, "smart money getting out", ...) 3. Price is now low enough for investor to get back in. 4. No new excitement is created: slow depreciation in value. Trading: Since the price is likely to keep rising for the next couple of days, I suggest now to buy some ether and to set your take profit at the resistance level at $316.
KRAKEN:ETHUSD
by Lucas_Aschenbach
4