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Bubble

S&P 500 target 2350-2400 in the year 2017The raging bull market extends further into the year 2017, after the "Italy" referendum was shrugged off. There could be another pullback after the FED meeting this month, but after this super bullish market reaction to the situation in Europe (even if manipulated by the ECB) I see the risk of a new crash diminishing and the opportunity to extend the overall rally into a mega-bubble increasing - based upon the end of the earnings recession in the US and the end of the stock market crash in China and Japan growing again, too. Entry: 2180-2200 Stop loss: 2170 Target: 2350-2400 Risk: 10-25 points Reward: 150-220 points
FX:SPX500Long
by ChartArt
1
$BTC testing highs and why USDCNH mattersBitcoin highly correlates with Dollar pair volatility these days, these are signs the market has matured a lot. Which makes sense since the CFTC considers it a commodity these days as more CFTC approved derivatives are on the way. US largest trading partner is China, any market correlation done on any asset if you ask me starts with capital flow from those areas, Europe is a close second which is why you're seeing great coordination between central banks in these economies. I believe the breakout into ATH's on Bitcoin will go together with the continuation of the USD bull market. China is hugely Dollar hedged which is why PBoC will simply keep fixing CNY down to benefit off this.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by W.D._Goon
Monero possibly going bubble in 2017I wont margin trade this potential bubble, but i will hold my bag expecting it to happen. I dont want to say XMR could be the next BTC, as that usually dooms any project, but i really trust in Monero fundamentals long term. 1. Ring Signatures & Stealth Addresses Ring Signatures - To simplify it, similar to a bitcoin mixer but included in protocol and used "by default". This contributes to make A LOT harder blockchain analysis, as you can know a group of users sent a total amount of Monero, but you cannot know how much each sent and to who did it (this is combined with fractioning transactions amounts and adding "fake" inputs and outputs to the "group signature" to discourage sybil attacks. Bytecoin was first crypto including this, and Monero was the second one and the first legit one doing it. Plus its devs have gained wide experience through these years. Bitcoin might add it (and Litecoin will), though i dont think it is plausible as Bitcoin clearly chose the "transparecy" path, whic is great and has load of use cases, but is not the Monero project goal. Stealth Addresses . CryptoNote generates a new address for each transaction, so you cannot easily link a user with all his transactions. This is already possible in bitcoin (with compatible clients) but once again, privacy is not bitcoin goal. And any optional privacy feature is a no-go, as if it is optional, you will be marked as suspicious because of using it. 3. Tail emission or minimum subsisidy for miners. Without rewards, proof of work is not possible. That is to say, you either have block rewards for miners (token inflation) or you risk to scaling fees in transactions (risking to not being competitive to other transaction methods) or lack of security. To solve this Monero has a "tail emission" or minimum subsisdy, that avoids block reward to keep going down till reaching 0 inflation or microscopic inflation. This will kick around 2022 and will keep Monero inflation at a REALLY SLOWLY decreasing rate under 1%. 3. Reduced inflation. Monero had a pretty quick emission curve, but that has a positive side effect: reaching acceptable inflation rates pretty soon. YEAR----------------YEARLY INFLATION 2015----------------65,80% 2016----------------25,68% 2017----------------12,87% -- Similar to DASH (12.69%) and Litecoin (12.5%) 2018----------------7,07% -- Under DASH (10.55%) and Litecoin (11.11%) 2019----------------4,06% -- Similar to Bitcoin (3.97%) 2020----------------2,38% -- Under bitcoin (2.63%) 2021----------------1,42% 2022----------------0,91% -- Tail emission kicks in somewhere this year Less inflation means smaller sell pressure from miners, if the buy pressure remains and/or increases, price should increase. 2016, with an anualized inflation of ~25% was a great bull year for Monero, and placed it in the eye of thousands of crypto-enthusiasts, traders&speculators, and what is the most important: DARKNET MARKETS (all of them representing demand of monero tokens). 4.DarkNet Marketers adoption. With smaller inflation (12% per year is already acceptable), GUI wallet, Ring Confidential Transactions and bigger and bigger market liquidity, surely Monero will threaten Bitcoin's place in the DarkNet Markets (as bitcoin has proven to be a faucet of information that can be used by govs or even private entities). And dark markets proved the bitcoin use, and contributed enormously to its mainstream adoption. This might happen with Monero too.
by bagofXMR
8
NVDA: Short in 3 days on closeI'm looking to short $NVDA here, but need further confirmation of the top. If we get a smaller range day today, and we see a new daily low after that, or if we get a new daily low right away tomorrow, I'll short a half position then, risking $10.86 per share. I'll start building a position after tomorrow's close if the range is smaller than today's, and spread the selling over 1-2 weeks. Alternatively, if we see that within 3 bars, price doesn't hit 107.97, we'll get a low risk short signal, which would be a good confirmation of our fundamental thesis. You can check out the post by @michaelgoldin on the subject, he spotted this trade during one of our conversations at the Key Hidden Levels chatroom. Good luck, Ivan Labrie.
NASDAQ:NVDAShort
by IvanLabrie
4
Deep ITM Put on AMZNIt may be too late to jump in on this one, as the risk is about $20/share in option value if it turns against us.However, if you can stomach that kind of risk and have the capital, a .75 Delta ITM Put with 2-3 months of time value could win big. Today's slight rebound allows for an equivalent entry to the closing price from 11/10/2016. Trail your stop to the Red line. Oscillator divergence supports the end of the long uptrend from earlier this month as well as an awful earnings report with supporting negative sentiment at this time (that doesn't mean it can't change on a dime). AMZN is a stock I personally avoid due to the psychology of it being an investors' "Sweethart". My personal opinion is it's one of the biggest bubbles of all time waiting to burst. Now could be the start...
NASDAQ:AMZNShort
by EdgeAnalytics
2008 patch dyingHi everyone, Last week we saw the fed deciding not to raise rates. Many are saying that this is not important, that 0.25% doesnt make the difference. Lets analyze why it does matter. 1) After 2008, the only way to recapitalize companies was to give free money away, thats why they implemented almost zero-interest rates. At first, it went all well, growth went at the same pace than prices. But right now, we are seeing an scenario were everything is expensive, the everything bubble market. They know this, and they take advantage of it, why are we going to raise rates if any other investment is also bad? The problem is that the further they keep rates low, the bubble increase in size. I have to recognize this to trump, which stated that the fed is only taking a political decision, with the clear example he said for instance, REIT companies are having a party with this kind of rates. 2) Then we have the oil market, where an agreement to cut the glut has been already on the table for over a year and who knows if they will finally agree on something.. We know that US has an extraction cost of $ 38 per barrel (average) , if they increase rates, dollar will tend to valuate, pushing oil lower, yes, overtime it will tend to find its real value upon costs, but in the meantime it would create a huge turbulence. 3) Emerging markets such as brazil or argentina are already on a very high interest rate, if rates were increased and yield-to-maturity increases on the US, this will be directly reflected on this goverments which will cause turbulence also there 4) The stock market in the US is highly overvalued, yes of course you will find one or two stocks which are with good valuation, but overall their not. If you are a fed supporter, then you know that yellen said to expect a 1% grow on a year basis, the question is, do you think that companies and earnings will grow at the same basis? what about stock prices? 5) Add to the stated arguments, that if they raise rates, and there ir turbulence in the market, DB will face much bigger consequences because of its high exposure. The most recent quarter, we saw many companies surprise on earnings release, but there is something important to notice.. they surprise cause expectations where low, on a YoY basis, they werent so good. As a conclusion, They have to increase rates, but nobody wants to do it cause the guilt will fall on them. I see a correction at least to 198.65
AMEX:SPYShort
by GabrielMellace
3
XMR - Monero | Bubble Pop ScenarioDemonstrated here, we see Monero's tendency to make 76.4%, 61.8%, and 50% retracements from the tops. After a tremendous rally, this scenario assumes that the move under the 0.0185 BTC level has signaled the end of the rally and the start of a trend reversal. Drawing a fibbonaci retracement from the all time low to the high at .0185 BTC shows the the 1.272 level (and the wick to 1.414) as a likely point of reversal to the downside. Areas to watch for support are 50% from the current top (~0.013 BTC) and 61.8% from the top (~0.01). A continuation of the uptrend in BTC should solidify this position, with XMR showing signs of an inverse relationship, Any large events in the BTC space that could cause a steep decline in BTC could invalidate this reversal to the downside in XMR, or cause a quick spike to double top at the ATH and then continue downwards.
by Lechango
1
Bubbles everywhere: Current risks to the US stock market rallyPick your poison, I mean your favorite bubble: real estate (Vancouver's housing bubble) student loan debt tech stocks and startup unicorns bonds I just picked some random news articles for each bubble. In case I forgot one major bubble please tell me in the comments. Real estate: Chinese Media Warns Canada's Housing Crash Will Put U.S. To Shame www.huffingtonpost.ca www.advisorperspectives.com www.advisorperspectives.com The $1.3 Trillion Student Debt Bubble marketrealist.com www.advisorperspectives.com Tech: We've officially reached the last stage of the unicorn boom www.businessinsider.com US hedge fund giant warns of 'biggest bond bubble in history' www.telegraph.co.uk www.marketwatch.com Here are two bearish scenarios: A "the pullback" and B "the crash": Short entry A: 2175 (or 2185) points Target A: 2025 points Short entry B: 2160 points Target B: 1850 points Stop loss: 2215-2200 points
FX:SPX500Short
by ChartArt
8
Bubble Watchlist: 7 Energy CompaniesI found a couple of price correlated energy stocks which look like they are in a massive uptrend (bubble), but the very recent direction is down. Therefore I recommend to watch these stocks the next weeks if they bottom very fast or decline further towards the supporting average trend direction of these rapidly growing price trajectories (and then maybe rally even higher). The stock with the largest uptrend so far is NextEra Energy, Inc. (NEE) which is colored on my chart in bright lime green. These seven stocks are: NEE - NextEra Energy DTE - DTE Energy Co WEC - WEC Energy Group Inc XEL - Xcel Energy Inc CMS - CMS Energy Corp LNT - Alliant Energy Corp CNP - CenterPoint Energy Inc Related news: - NextEra Energy Stock Closed Down, Govt Investigating for Manipulating Market www.thestreet.com
NYSE:NEE
by ChartArt
What does it all mean?Remember that AUDJPY SPX correlation that was so strong last year? It's completely broken down. When the AUDJPY fell in sync with the stock market that usually signified that there was a market move from risky to safe haven assets. Lately, even though the AUDJPY has fallen and stayed flat, the stock market has rebounded strongly and threatens to rise higher. What does this all mean? 1. SPX is more resilient meaning that it offers the best return. With earnings falling it is creating a bubble where the fundamentals and risks don't match the price. The AUDJPY represents the true level of fear in the market. 2. The AUD and Aussie bonds is less attractive with the RBA dropping rates, political and economic uncertainty. Commodity prices are still low. 3. The stock market isn't as bad as the negative sentiment going around. Market is correctly priced. 4. Short squeezing. Meaning that short sellers are closing their trades or hedging. 5. Bargain hunters. Traders believe that the drops represent profitable opportunities. It's probably a combination of all these factors, but what I really believe mostly is happening is that foreign buyers, such as those in Asia, specifically China and Japan (who have no faith in their own markets), and European investors where euro stocks are much riskier, are pumping their money into the American stocks. This is creating, certainly imbalances that can only be solved wen Americans start participating in their own markets. When Americans start investing more strongly in their own markets, the Fed will likely raise rates. When they raise rates, there will certainly be a period of volatility but this will just be an era of rebalancing. In any case, I believe that the market must go down before it goes back up.
FX:SPX500Short
by maccabean
The new beginning of a Fractal?So now we come to a point in time with this consolidation at $400 for deciding the trend for the next several months. Quite an impressive triangle has formed and we're drawing it out right to the end - the break of this will dictate the trend for months (or maybe even years) to come. But I have discovered a small fractal within the overall beartrend since the $1200 top two years ago. Both have wyckoff's, both have a high level of altcoin activity and people looking to gain additional return on the BTC they are holding. But last time, it ended with people cashing out and leaving this market, will this time be different? ™ A break of the broader triangle would lead to a $240 retest, and potentially could trend us down to new lows. A break up would imply $680 be tested, and if broken could lead to new ATH's because it would be making continued monthly highs. Bubble target would be $4800 (my guess based off the wisdom of the crowd). So lets see where we go. Hopefully this is a little more clear than my previous (linked) chart I made comparing bullish bubble cycles back in 2014 at this same period. Now I'm going to give comparing bearish cycles a shot.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by lowstrife
6
Bitcoin attempt to pass the rubiconThe chart shows the most important Bear Trendline since December 2013 bubble. It can be connected on all 3 major chinese exchanges by using a line magnet Recently BTC has built support just above the trendline at around 2880 CNY. Possible top of the trend 3030 CNY. When broken double top on the triangle will be confirmed. We fall back into the long term Bear Trend. This will inevitably lead to capitulation and despair. Possible scenario: - Hammer on daily when the bull trend is broken - Look at my related idea Bitcoin Bubble.
BShort
by dump
ETHBTC ANALYSING THE BUBBLE4 months consolidation phase spawned a considerable liftoff that exceeded my expectations and made me turn my monitor vertically to inspect the full height of that pop. What's next? Cyclic nature of open-ended markets entails the never-ending torrent of repeatedly changing accumulation phase and distribution phase in such a way that the end of an antecedent phase corresponds to the beginning of a new phase. At first blush, eth has all signs of staying in the distribution phase known for its inherent danger of a higher negative volatility. The axis of a symmetry connects the 0.00215 BTC floor with the 0.0372 BTC top bar separating two equivalent 70 days time periods that map a triangular shape onto a 140 bars bubble. Fibonacci spirals and timezones agreed in setting the point at which the market sentiment may retreat to 05.22. I would anticipate a strong slump until then. As demonstrated by fibonacci timezones the bubble was highly coordinated with btc news events and halving rumors made the latter affect the direction of the overall trend. This market was timed in the simplest way that it effectively consolidated many reasons for railing south into one. 1. Valve is on and will be adding btc to steam. 2. Segregated witness is a pending pull request. 3. New release of bitsquare. 4. gbtc has seen a surge in value. Eth wont defend its value against btc hype elevator. My verdict: I forecast 0.01066 BTC in the coming days and likely 0.006 BTC before the end of may.
Short
by heglassedme
2