EPOCH 3: A 60-Week–Long BubblecastThis exponential model was carefully rendered from historical trade action data. Lower support trend breaches at this point do not alter the indicated price targets; ranges are still to be considered accurate.
•The regions detailed in my post "INTRA-BUBBLE LOWS PERIOD … " are represented above using pairs of RED|VERTICALS with an interior span of ├5 WEEKS┤, within which the intra-bubble bottoms (indicated with red adjoining beam) occur, and with no greater than ╟36 WEEKS╢ between any adjacent set of pairs.
•BLUE|VERTICALS, of interior span ├4 WEEKS┤, demarcate the boundary between adjacent 'double-bubble' pairs by partitioning the chart into ╟64 WEEK╢ regions of accelerating exponential growth shown by the GREEN↗DASHED trend lines.
EPOCHS: I find that bubbles occur in pairs, taking place over intervals with exponential lower bounds that spontaneously accelerates in the interim region between one pair and the next, as described above. I call these time periods 'epochs'. The PURPLE|VERTICALS are near where the major pre-bubble acceleration occurs. The last two bubbles took place in Epoch 2, or E , thus the next two will occur in Epoch 3, whose trendline E forms the border between the orange and green triangular areas of the projection. Tautologically, bubbles in the same pair have more in common than ones which are not.
•The DOTTED HORIZONTALS: ┈ORANGE┈ and ┈RED┈ indicate the maximum* and highest possible, respectively, for each given peak. ┈PURPLE┈ defines post-bottom support by averaging two nearest maxima*.
•TRIANGLES: I've triangulated the double-bubble projection, outlining where possible peaks are likely to occur, using intuitive color-coded regions intended to reflect the range of expected prices/pressures around those times. It is anticipated that all future candles will intersect or lie wholly within these areas. GREEN is a 'safe' channel, of avg. movement; ORANGE: signal; and RED: strongly pressures. In effect, this amounts to a kind of probability gradient over the possible future price trajectories; red zones being more untenable than orange ones; and orange, less so than green, hence why I didn't simply draw a 'bar pattern'.
⊕ See pastebin.com for a full description which would not fit in this space.
Bubble
Netflix bubble bursting price targets.The current Netflix trend appears to be a repeat of the 2011 bubble burst. In fact the two curves are almost identical so far. If we assume that the 2011 trend holds, and project the expected 'bottom' after the bubble bursts, one can infer some near term price targets that could be used as some type of options play.
Silver Ready to Sky Rocket I have been adding to my silver position for months and months along this most recent bottom. At this point, silver seems like it has been beaten down to it's absolute bottom. It is currently sitting along the .764 fib level, which also happens to be the bottom of the donchian channels. The RSI is as oversold as it was at the beginning of the '08 bubble. Bullish divergence on the MACD also suggests momentum is changing.
As far as fundamentals, we have an increasing risk of hot war, an extreme bubble in bonds, stocks, and real estate, gold and silver look to be an amazing buy.
Please also see my S&P500 chart as a follow up to this idea.
Timing For Next PeakThis has totally failed!
While doing this I noticed that when I drew the Fib Time Zone that it lined up really close to the peak to peak line that I drew. As a matter of fact it seems that every peak has been following the Fib Zone 1,2,3...
Now price predictions are going to be much harder to predict. Since there isn't an old data to base future up swings on Fib Retraces are used instead. These Fib levels are more of just "zones" for where the price may eventually stop at.
There seems to be decreasing increase % wise from the peaks. It may in fact happen again or may just blow past that and suddenly have a steeper increase than the last peaks.
Volatility has a story to tell. Its been bursting higher and higher each round, but % wise decreasing lower and lower.
Odd that this round has also not seen the positive higher lows that were seen in the previous bubbles. Then again not all two bubbles are the same.
Regardless, this downward trend will break at some point during the coming weeks. But if it continues it may just go sideways for a while.
ATR says that the support for going down is continually dying and becoming less and less. Past ATR remained low until the point of where we broke up in parabolic moves.
BTC Descending Triangles -FRACTALSHow many times will we see this pattern play out? I've been made fun of for calling such a low target price (sub $200). We are in the last phase of THE classic bubble pattern. reference tech stocks or marijuana stocks to see where we are heading. "Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it"
Has The Next Phase Of Bitcoin's Growth Started Already?The primary reason I made this chart was to study the durations for the stages of each of Bitcoin's previous & current market cycles or phases.
These are the 2 areas marked by the bold white outline. Each phase is clearly made up of 8 stages, or rather 4 stages & their corrections. I'm going to call them:
1) The Boom
2) The Swing
3) The Dome
4) The Incline
The 3rd area marked by the bold yellow outline that is still open on it's right side, represents the current phase we are supposed to be currently trading 'in', However you will notice this current cycle has quite rapidly moved through all 8 stages, suggesting we have perhaps already passed into the the next market cycle!
If this turns out to be the case this would suggest the 'Gox Drop' marked the transition from the 'dome' stage into the 'incline' stage, technically a 'bottom'. And the recent market 'bottom' we have perhaps just put in, is equal to the transition from the 'incline' stage into a completely new phase! That would mean this current market cycle would be of the shortest duration since these cycles have established themselves.
As more & more big money is attracted to Bitcoin the likelihood that the psychology of the market is exploited by whale manipulation will only grow; Therefore I'd expect these market cycles to deviate from established norms as the cryptosphere develops. Also the timing of a rollout of Bitcoin regulation in New York by the end of the 2nd quarter of 2014, may be putting a squeeze on institutional investors & Wall St types to take up rushed positions while coin is still cheap. Thus condensing the time frames of what many consider a normal phase duration. But as I've said before only time will tell.
By the way you can click the top right share button, then click the "make it mine" button to access the interactive chart, to zoom in and see the detail.