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Bubble

The long term repeating bubbles of bitcoinIf history does not repeat, but only rhymes then we are in for one hell of a ride again in the next few months. My theory here is that the rises in bitcoin price are not due to any particular news, it is the increased adoption that drives the price through the alltime highs and the unsustainability of the exponential curve brings it crashing back down. People like to find "fundamental" reasons why the price is moving but there is only one real fundamental when it comes to bitcoin, a new uncontrolled financial technology growing in the public domain. Good and bad news is released everyday about/for bitcoin and if you look for one you will find a "reason" but only because you want to find one. Correlation does not mean causation. The relatively small price moves CAN be attributed to news, however the price typically recovers quickly, SR and Mt. Gox are good examples of this. As the price rises rapidly people will be looking for an excuse to sell and will use that news to signal the top, however it is important to know that the top will come and may not be news driven. This time people will attribute this new rise to the entrance of wall street into bitcoin and the crash back will anything from wall street caused it to the a change in tax regulation or trust in an exchange or wallet service dissolving. The top should be between $5,800 and $10,000 and the bottom around $2000, and the next round should take us to approximately $50,000. After this bubble and crash there should be enough data to predict the top of the next one more accurately.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by TheDyslexicMessia
The 2011 Megabubble for Bitcoin was part of a larger cycle.So with some charts I made a few days ago, I had a realization that the Megabubble in 2011 we saw was actually part of a longer cycle that is A) identical to every bubble that came after and B) difficult to see because of it's scale. As far as I have seen, nobody else has ever charted the Megabubble and the subsequent "mini-bubbles" that occurred after in this same manner. Typically they say t he $15 bubble in 2012 was a similar bubble to the two that followed it except that it was a failed launch. In reality, it was part of a larger cycle in the recovery from 2011. I hope this chart explains things and my theory that we only have had 3 bubbles and are finishing our current cycle now and are not significantly deviated from the cycle period. I'd love to hear your thoughts that these cycles are identical and that it's just the scales are different. As always with my charts, every single item is color coordinated and every thing that I do put onto each chart is replicated across all 3 timeframes.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by lowstrife
8
Comparing Sentiment... Bear Trap? BearwareWith all the recent movement down I decided to do some sentiment analysis. I figured since people are becoming irrational it was time to look at it. Moving on to the chart. What I am trying to compare here is a few of the key points that we have seen in the market. If you have used Adobe Premiere Pro and tried to blur faces you would know what these key points are. These points are where key movements happen. This would include a head that sways another direction from the earlier. You may not know exactly what happens in between but it does show where reversals in movement happen. Now we are approaching that critical frame once again. Either this is a bear trap in which case we will start blasting off soon or... it is a simple correction in the market. Sentiment up to this point has not been euphoric as it normally is during peaks. This could be a smaller bubble if you think of it on a small time frame as such. Not much greed has happened to call for a complete reversal and continuation down. I will say that this is a simple correction or bear trap dependent on what happens over the coming days. Right now we are seeing a catalyst on Finex with margins closing. Blog if you want to see more: www.allbitcointa.cu.cc Related are some charts that I find interesting and reflect the fact that this could be a correction. None of the related ideas reflect my current position on predictions.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ItisCalvin
History Never Fogets. Modest Target for Next PeakNow the reason we really will not go down overall in the mid term is because the market has seen too much bad news. We have already seen how even as bad news happens it becomes less dramatic each time. The Willy report is not anything new that we did not already know or speculate on. If it was bad it would have moved us FAST like all news does. There does need to be main stream media news since the small group of people who sell or buy on the news kick start the rest of us. Now I did write a little bit about the super bears or the ones who still have bear tendency. There is some good sentiment analysis on this and I believe it is rather positive. Basically there is still some skepticism that can dilute the overall trend idea that some people have. Bitcoin moves basically what a normal market moves in 2-3 months it does 3-4 days. It is also based upon emotions more than most other markets so the fundamental value will be greatly off at any one moment. I think 800% gains are around what the fundamental value is based on. It should start going lower but more info is needed. I setup a pitchfork where it looks like the 150% could be the next stopping point as it was for the last top. Oddly enough putting a normal pitchfork in those 3 spots will give you the upward channel. 2400-2800 seems to be the range I am getting from all of this. Okay, if you want more visit my blog at: www.allbitcointa.cu.cc I go much more in-depth on bubbles and the indicators. Edit 6/1/14: The line was little hard to draw since it all had to be drawn continuously. More of an approximation of what I think could happen.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ItisCalvin
Shooting For The MoonWhile no one can really know where anything is going in life it is always great to share ideas. With that in mind when I originally made this chart I looked at how past history may be driving us forward. It is hard to tell what may happen with so little time but we could be in for another bubble. There is and always has been greed in the market. Those who don't believe so are only blinding themselves to the possibilities that trading such market has. I was actually quite surprised to see how this chart had played on when I first made it. This was back when I didn't have much of a handle on TV so everything was much worse and all over. At some point I'll have to look at the chat history on CCN. When I was chatting over there I kept thinking about how Bitcoin looks as if it was in some BIG mark up phase. If you were to smooth out the bubbles more you could see that as we have gone down each time it never goes 100% back down. Which lead me to believe there was a much bigger parabolic movement happening. I haven't once seen a bubble top be less than the last so for now all things are looking up. The linked charts in order: First one was suppose to be based on the log chart where movements are consistent but missed that. It is actually the one where the same pattern repeats itself which is also a good chart. Second one I wanted to include because it at least showed accurate first prediction, but it disregards anything about the longer term valid bull trend. Interesting to see but... Third chart is the original if you would like to check it out. Blog post with little bit different info if interested: www.allbitcointa.cu.cc Actually now that I think about it I think the magnet tool was on and I couldn't figure out why the bubbles kept wanting to stick. Hit it by accident.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ItisCalvin
EPOCH 3: A 60-Week–Long BubblecastThis exponential model was carefully rendered from historical trade action data. Lower support trend breaches at this point do not alter the indicated price targets; ranges are still to be considered accurate. •The regions detailed in my post "INTRA-BUBBLE LOWS PERIOD … " are represented above using pairs of RED|VERTICALS with an interior span of ├5 WEEKS┤, within which the intra-bubble bottoms (indicated with red adjoining beam) occur, and with no greater than ╟36 WEEKS╢ between any adjacent set of pairs. •BLUE|VERTICALS, of interior span ├4 WEEKS┤, demarcate the boundary between adjacent 'double-bubble' pairs by partitioning the chart into ╟64 WEEK╢ regions of accelerating exponential growth shown by the GREEN↗DASHED trend lines. EPOCHS: I find that bubbles occur in pairs, taking place over intervals with exponential lower bounds that spontaneously accelerates in the interim region between one pair and the next, as described above. I call these time periods 'epochs'. The PURPLE|VERTICALS are near where the major pre-bubble acceleration occurs. The last two bubbles took place in Epoch 2, or E , thus the next two will occur in Epoch 3, whose trendline E forms the border between the orange and green triangular areas of the projection. Tautologically, bubbles in the same pair have more in common than ones which are not. •The DOTTED HORIZONTALS: ┈ORANGE┈ and ┈RED┈ indicate the maximum* and highest possible, respectively, for each given peak. ┈PURPLE┈ defines post-bottom support by averaging two nearest maxima*. •TRIANGLES: I've triangulated the double-bubble projection, outlining where possible peaks are likely to occur, using intuitive color-coded regions intended to reflect the range of expected prices/pressures around those times. It is anticipated that all future candles will intersect or lie wholly within these areas. GREEN is a 'safe' channel, of avg. movement; ORANGE: signal; and RED: strongly pressures. In effect, this amounts to a kind of probability gradient over the possible future price trajectories; red zones being more untenable than orange ones; and orange, less so than green, hence why I didn't simply draw a 'bar pattern'. ⊕ See pastebin.com for a full description which would not fit in this space.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by snowsilence
8
Silver Ready to Sky Rocket I have been adding to my silver position for months and months along this most recent bottom. At this point, silver seems like it has been beaten down to it's absolute bottom. It is currently sitting along the .764 fib level, which also happens to be the bottom of the donchian channels. The RSI is as oversold as it was at the beginning of the '08 bubble. Bullish divergence on the MACD also suggests momentum is changing. As far as fundamentals, we have an increasing risk of hot war, an extreme bubble in bonds, stocks, and real estate, gold and silver look to be an amazing buy. Please also see my S&P500 chart as a follow up to this idea.
FX:XAGUSDLong
by astral
Timing For Next PeakThis has totally failed! While doing this I noticed that when I drew the Fib Time Zone that it lined up really close to the peak to peak line that I drew. As a matter of fact it seems that every peak has been following the Fib Zone 1,2,3... Now price predictions are going to be much harder to predict. Since there isn't an old data to base future up swings on Fib Retraces are used instead. These Fib levels are more of just "zones" for where the price may eventually stop at. There seems to be decreasing increase % wise from the peaks. It may in fact happen again or may just blow past that and suddenly have a steeper increase than the last peaks. Volatility has a story to tell. Its been bursting higher and higher each round, but % wise decreasing lower and lower. Odd that this round has also not seen the positive higher lows that were seen in the previous bubbles. Then again not all two bubbles are the same. Regardless, this downward trend will break at some point during the coming weeks. But if it continues it may just go sideways for a while. ATR says that the support for going down is continually dying and becoming less and less. Past ATR remained low until the point of where we broke up in parabolic moves.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ItisCalvin
5
Has The Next Phase Of Bitcoin's Growth Started Already?The primary reason I made this chart was to study the durations for the stages of each of Bitcoin's previous & current market cycles or phases. These are the 2 areas marked by the bold white outline. Each phase is clearly made up of 8 stages, or rather 4 stages & their corrections. I'm going to call them: 1) The Boom 2) The Swing 3) The Dome 4) The Incline The 3rd area marked by the bold yellow outline that is still open on it's right side, represents the current phase we are supposed to be currently trading 'in', However you will notice this current cycle has quite rapidly moved through all 8 stages, suggesting we have perhaps already passed into the the next market cycle! If this turns out to be the case this would suggest the 'Gox Drop' marked the transition from the 'dome' stage into the 'incline' stage, technically a 'bottom'. And the recent market 'bottom' we have perhaps just put in, is equal to the transition from the 'incline' stage into a completely new phase! That would mean this current market cycle would be of the shortest duration since these cycles have established themselves. As more & more big money is attracted to Bitcoin the likelihood that the psychology of the market is exploited by whale manipulation will only grow; Therefore I'd expect these market cycles to deviate from established norms as the cryptosphere develops. Also the timing of a rollout of Bitcoin regulation in New York by the end of the 2nd quarter of 2014, may be putting a squeeze on institutional investors & Wall St types to take up rushed positions while coin is still cheap. Thus condensing the time frames of what many consider a normal phase duration. But as I've said before only time will tell. By the way you can click the top right share button, then click the "make it mine" button to access the interactive chart, to zoom in and see the detail.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by UnknownUnicorn59736
4