Post-Fed Update: Ignore Fed RedWe likely just finished Minor wave 2 with the low today or if another low is reached shortly after the open. The prior low at 4049 is the level to watch. A drop below this would likely place us on my prior analysis PATH TWO and continue Intermediate wave 2.
Intermediate wave 3 still remains the likely location and the drop today would have been the Minute wave C we needed to finish Minor wave 2. As of now, strongest model agreement has Minor wave 3 lasting 6 days with next strongest models at 4 days. For waves ending in C33, first quartile move extension would be 150.48% of Minor wave 1, with the median move at 202% and third quartile at 396.60%. There is a horizontal trendline just above 202% so the end of wave three will likely remain below 4330. The drop today presents plenty of ground to be gained starting tomorrow.
The overall end of Intermediate wave 3 could occur sometime before the final week in May. Right now the final market top appears on track for mid-June so a debt ceiling issue by June 1 may not be likely....yet.
I should provide another update around the middle of next week if not one over the weekend.
