Airtel Vs (TTML, MTNL, IDEA) - Pre-Rally Vs Post-RallyHere’s an assertive revision of your content:
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**Why Airtel Dragged While TTML, MTNL, and IDEA Blasted?**
The government’s consideration of waiving 50% interest and 100% penalties on AGR dues created a buzz, and certain "gurus" began hyping a potential rally in **Bharti Airtel**, a fundamentally strong telecom stock compared to **TTML**, **MTNL**, and **Vodafone Idea**.
**But the market did the exact opposite.**
TTML (+16.5%), MTNL (+10.5%), and IDEA (+9.11%) soared, while Airtel struggled below 1%. The question is **why?**
**The Answer: The Importance of Technical Structures, Supports, and Resistances.**
Market participants often assume that fundamentals drive prices. This is the **biggest myth.** Fundamentals (valuations, PE ratios, book value, order books, quarterly results) can create momentum but never dictate its **direction.** Supports and resistances are the **primary drivers** of price movement. Relying solely on fundamentals is like pressing the accelerator while trying to reverse park—damages are inevitable.
Now, let’s review the technical factors behind the explosive moves in TTML, MTNL, and IDEA compared to Airtel’s stagnation.
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### **TTML**
On the **monthly chart**, TTML formed a **bullish flag pattern**, breaking out in **July 2024**. However, the lack of momentum in the telecom sector kept it range-bound until now.
**Key Points:**
1. A **77% correction** from its all-time high (ATH) formed the flag.
2. Sideways consolidation since March 2024 created a **strong base**.
3. This base aligned with the **Fib 0.618 retracement** from the previous high.
TTML was primed for a move. The AGR news provided the necessary trigger, leading to the much-anticipated breakout.
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### **MTNL**
The **monthly chart** of MTNL shows a **multi-decade bullish inverted head and shoulders pattern**. After breaking out, the stock faced resistance at ₹103 and retraced **58.5%**, aligning perfectly with the breakout zone and the **Fib 0.618 retracement level.**
**Why the Rally?**
MTNL’s bounce was overdue, and the AGR news acted as a catalyst, triggering the massive move.
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### **IDEA**
Vodafone Idea, the weakest of the group, also surged 10% (hitting an intraday high of 15% before closing at 9.11%). Despite its struggles, IDEA displayed critical technical alignments:
1. A **65.54% correction** from its previous high.
2. Support at the **Fib 0.786 retracement** level.
3. A bounce from the **bottom of a rising parallel channel**.
Though IDEA lacked the fundamental strength of TTML and MTNL, it still rallied due to the technical setup.
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### **Bharti Airtel: Why Didn’t It Rally?**
**Quarterly Chart** (Right):
1. Airtel has been traveling within a **multi-decade parallel channel**.
2. After consolidating for 13 years, it broke out in **October 2018**, delivering **613% returns** since then.
3. The stock reached an **extended Fibonacci target (Fib 2.618)**—an exhaustion zone.
**Weekly Chart** (Left):
1. Airtel corrected only **15%** from its ATH.
2. It is still in a **lower high-lower low (LH-LL)** bearish formation.
3. The price was at a critical juncture of **two resistances**:
- The **falling trendline** from ATH.
- A **weekly resistance** at ₹1640.
**Verdict:**
Airtel had already rallied significantly before the news and was in an exhaustion phase. Strong resistances at current levels obstructed its movement.
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### **Key Takeaways:**
- TTML, MTNL, and IDEA rallied because they **completed major corrections, formed strong bases, and awaited a trigger.**
- Airtel, having already rallied, was in a consolidation phase with significant resistance levels.
**Conclusion:**
Blindly trading based on news or fundamentals without considering technicals is a recipe for disaster. Fundamentals may create momentum, but the **direction** is always governed by supports and resistances.
A sector-wide news event will not trigger the same momentum across all stocks unless their **technical structures** align. Always combine fundamentals with technical analysis for informed decision-making.
**Disclaimer:**
With over **3 years of teaching experience** in the stock market, including **Technical Analysis**, **Behavioral Analysis**, **Advanced Patterns**, **Emotional Management**, and **News-based Trading**, we are dedicated to educating, not advising on buy/sell decisions.
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