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BTCUSD: Structural Clues Lean Toward Bullish Breakout.BTCUSD update: Price action is going nowhere fast. A consolidation within a consolidation. A tough market for those who do not have the ability to wait. The question is: are there any clues as to which way it will break out? Just like trending markets do not continue forever, neither do ranging markets. Consolidations are an expression of balance in terms of order flow. Buying and selling pressure is generally equal. The thing is, eventually one side will be wrong. And that natural order flow should provide the momentum for a significant break out. Are there any clues or hints that may tip off which side is the right side? In terms of price structure, yes. And it comes in the form of a higher low formation. Higher lows often lead to higher highs during trending markets. In range bound markets, they may not offer the same likelihood because of the high amount of randomness, BUT they often appear before a break out. In the case of Bitcoin, there is a clear higher low in place at the 6450 area. Below that is the 6350 area which serves as the base of this structure that leans toward the bullish side. In fact the structure was compelling enough for us to take two swing trade long positions. One of them reached their first target, before stopping out on the other half for break even. As long as this structure (represented by the newly formed bullish trend line) is maintained, we believe the break out has a greater chance of being bullish. We are positioned for that scenario and anticipate a move to at least 7K. In summary, this is the type of market where brokers and exchanges make the most money from people looking for action every day. There is no action. Impatience and the need for action are expensive emotional conflicts that put people in a financial hole. When the better market returns, they have to spend their time and effort making money back rather than advancing the growth of their capital. These are the same people who blame the market, the whales and the exchanges for their problems. Meanwhile they do not realize their own mental framework is at fault. It all begins with having criteria, categorizing trades and waiting for the market to play along. This is what active listening is all about when it comes to adjusting and preparing for the next move. The fact that this is a game of psychology, not charts and numbers is why it is easy to understand the concept of "waiting" but so difficult to practice.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
57
BTCUSD: The Break Out? Or Just More Noise?Bitcoin update: Recent price action has everyone excited, confused and most likely losing money. First the confusion set off from the recent outside bar, followed by partial continuation, but the lack of conviction still lingers. This is typical of a consolidating environment. Trying to catch the "big move" before the market provides evidence is a losing proposition. At S.C., we don't just interpret lines on a chart and call ourselves market technicians. We look beyond the lines and evaluate factors that dictate typical market conditions. By doing this, we have a much better idea of when our strategies are most likely to perform. Market environments play an important role when it comes to the success or failure of a strategy. That is why during strong bullish trends, all the current amateurs appear to be experts. Anyone can make money in a forgiving environment, but most cannot hold on to it when the market returns to reality. The varying level of difficulty that we have seen since February is a good example of a typical market. Anyone can learn to recognize basic setups, formations and signals. The common mistake is not evaluating these setups within the context of the environment that they appear in. We recognize the degree of noise in these markets and have the ability to steer clear. While the herd continues to chase the "breakout" that never seems to follow through, they exhaust their capital and confidence. When the market eventually makes a decisive move, we will be prepared to capitalize on the opportunities that follow. Meanwhile we exhaust nothing by waiting. At S.C., we remain long term bullish but recognize the short term conflict. We have defined particular scenarios that we are waiting for in order to take action and share these ideas with our community. For starters, Bitcoin needs to close above a recent resistance before we even think about adding risk to our portfolio. The more bearish scenario involves a test of the 6K psychological support or lower. Unlike many of the other "experts", we don't react to movements, we wait for the market to fit our criteria. In other words we let the market show its hand, not force its hand. In summary, knowing your environment is just as important as checking the weather each day. Why do we bother? So we can make a more informed decision as to what we should wear. Do we need a jacket? An umbrella? Or can we just wear a tee shirt and shorts? Why would you not attempt to protect your capital from the market environment the same way? The answers will not come from oscillators or small time frame charts. They come from being in tune with market sentiment as it expresses itself in varying degrees through price action. Professional landscapers are experts at mowing lawns. If they are so good, why can't they get the job done while it's raining? The environment is not conducive, no matter how skilled they are. So what do they do? They wait until weather is more favorable. Trade the same way.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
24
ETHUSD: Higher Low New Strength?Ethereum update: A market that is weak sells off quickly. The bullish inside bar in this market is a sign of a fake out, and not a characteristic of weakness. On top of that, the current structure may be turning into a higher low formation. Bad for shorts. This is the first sign of improved structure since this market made an attempt in July. It is still too early to make any changes to our strategy at S.C., but it is certainly a welcome sign. The reason why it is too early to call this a bottom is because Bitcoin needs to improve also. If the higher low fails to follow through, the formation will more likely evolve into another bearish continuation pattern. This is not something that is predictable, it is something that the market must demonstrate. Predicting and timing a market are not the same. People who claim they are "predicting" are still learning. Anticipating a market is the practice of interpreting available information in a way that identifies some form of advantage. We express this in terms of probability. People who predict imply absolutes and there are none in a highly random environment such as a financial market. When the environment is clearly UNFAVORABLE, we sit on the sidelines. Being aggressive at the wrong time is much more expensive than being conservative at the wrong time. The herd may criticize us for waiting it out, but our funds will still be available for when the favorable environment returns. Of course the herd will be made up of entirely new critics that will take the place of the current ones. In summary, the question that we are waiting for the market to answer is: if Bitcoin tests its low, will Ethereum make a new low? So far the higher low or failed low scenario is gaining favor. The fact that price did not collapse as usual can also be interpreted as a new sign of strength. If this market is going to recover, there will be plenty of opportunities to board this train. Especially if important resistance levels like 300 are taken out in the process. While the market builds the structure that we want to see, we wait rather than react. Waiting is free and can be practiced indefinitely. Reacting is not, just ask all the bears that jumped into the sell signal.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
13
BTCUSD: Indecisive Price Action? Sidelines.Bitcoin update: Price action is holding just under the 6626 resistance level. This minor consolidation can establish a shallow higher low, but in light of the general conditions, follow through is less likely. In my recent S.C., article I talk about the herd's need for action. There are people that are in this for the thrill of the emotional highs and lows, and then there are people who are serious about making money. Since we belong to the second group, we recognize there is a time to be aggressive and a time to be conservative. Until conditions improve dramatically, we will continue to be conservative. This means SELECTIVE. This means not taking every signal, trigger, candle pattern or any other rationalization to "catch" the next move. Yes, there is nothing exciting or glamorous about waiting. Our capital is preserved and prepared for deployment when the infrequent but high probability setups appear. The price action at the moment is random, it can go either way and there is no distinct advantage to buying here. 50/50 trades are not conducive toward building accounts over time. In the market timing arena, the player defines the game, not the other way around. We like to compare this to the types of poker players that you will find at the average table. There are loose players who play every hand for the thrill, and there are conservative players who are there to make money and will throw away hand after hand until a more favorable opportunity unfolds. An opportunity that fits their criteria for their style of play. In summary in order for us to take on new risk, particular scenarios need to materialize (shared with our members). The scenarios we anticipate are ones that offer a clear and natural advantage. Whether they pay off or not is a function of probability, but when you have pocket aces, you bet on them. Every time. We employ multiple styles of trading and investing, neither of which come anything close to day trading. High frequency will fulfill your need for action, but the high costs will not fulfill your trading account. The occasional wins that do come out of such strategies are no different than the small rewards that come out of a casino. They are just enough to encourage you to keep betting, which is what keeps the house in business. Can you clearly articulate your style of trading?
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
28
ETHUSD: Nice Try, Long Way To Go.Ethereum update: The retrace attempt may look impressive at first glance, but the broader structure provides a more sober perspective. A move from the 160 area to 224 is nothing to sneeze at, but how much did you have to lose in the process of betting on this random event? This is one of those situations where good is not good enough. Although the move to 224 has the impulsive traders hungry for more, both broader bearish trend lines are no where near being compromised. Like I have been writing in recent Bitcoin articles, the initial move is the most costly. At S.C., in order for us to come off the side lines, this market needs to close above 300 at minimum. Otherwise it will have to take the time to build a much more convincing structure. The initial move is the most costly because in order to prove itself, price needs to test a support to demonstrate the possibility of further strength. Buying too early means you are not only exposing yourself to this adverse movement, but also to the possibility of momentum continuation. Which in this case means a lower low. In summary, market reversals are not a single event, they are a process. Now that the initial move is in place, our objective is to wait for the market to prove a broader reversal is likely. It can demonstrate that in a variety of ways with the most recognizable way being a double bottom formation. Getting sucked into the initial move motivated by the fear of missing out is a common mistake, even if it pays a random profit. If this market probes higher, the broader structure is still not favorable for the type of swing trades we aim to take. If this market is going to recover, it will take time to construct the evidence. Waiting for this requires patience in the face of movement that looks promising, but offers no distinct advantage. We would rather sacrifice what appears to be better prices, for conditions that are generally more favorable. This perspective specifically pertains to our swing trade methodology, and not our inventory management. We do not mix strategies. That is how we effectively minimize losses and maintain positive longer term performance. In this game, you have the opportunity to only play when the conditions are best for you. Take advantage of it.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
36
BTCUSD: Price Aims Higher As Risk Increases.BTCUSD update: Minor consolidation forming above the positive sloping trend line which is likely to lead to a bullish break out. Triangles are trend continuation patterns and so far the momentum as defined by price structure remains bullish. As price is poised to climb higher, our concern is the over head resistance located in the high 7400's and above (not on chart). This along with the fact that the higher price goes, the higher the risk of retrace. At S.C., we do not react to price action, we evaluate and anticipate. For our swing trade methodology, the current location makes putting on new trades too aggressive. Less experienced traders do not realize that not every setup is high quality, especially since they hunger for action. One of the toughest lessons to learn is the market will occasionally reward bad habits. Over trading, low probability trades, buying highs, etc. This phenomenon is no different than when a casino game randomly rewards a player. This ignites hope, and stimulates further play. There is no such thing as a professional slot machine player is there? This is why having criteria and sticking to it is so important, no matter what the market is showing. And Bitcoin is in one of those situations where it is showing a potential setup, but the risk is high. Best practices prevent us from buying into such conditions. In summary, at S.C. we have a swing trade plan that governs what trade setups we can take. Bitcoin may push higher, but the risk outweighs the potential reward at this point. Like I wrote in my article earlier today, a retrace to 7K or into the 6800 area presents a much more attractive opportunity. What separates our research from many is that we do no pretend to know where price is going next. Instead we are open to the possibilities of where it can go, and then let the market prove itself. If it aligns with our criteria, then great we have a trade. If it does not, then we sit it out, no matter how great the chart may look. This simple form of discipline is why our performance record is in the positive. Much of it has less to do with hitting home run 10,000% trades and more to do with avoiding many would be losses. I often remind our followers that successful market timing has as much to do with a good defense as it does a good offense. No one wants to hear it though, because defense is never fun or appreciated since the majority of traders are focused on profits. True the purpose of putting money to work is to gain a return. The mistake is in following the natural instinct of obsessing over the return which is what contributes to its elusiveness. All of this translates into: timing is about organizing information, following rules, and waiting for the market to conform to criteria. And yes, it is far from the excitement and glamour portrayed by the financial media. If you want excitement, casinos offer a much better experience for your emotional needs.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
19
ETHUSD: Improving Structure, But Relative Weakness Prevails.ETHUSD Update: Even with the Bitcoin surge, this market cannot push above 300. Even though short term structure is attempting to improve, this market looks like it is leaning toward a bearish continuation more than anything else. At S.C., we have been bullish on Bitcoin. We bought at 6189 when the herd of "experts" were sure it was going to 5K. We still own some in our inventory along with a few of the alts. Ethereum is one of the alts and we will not be looking to add until it can close above 320 at a minimum. This does not mean we buy at 320. A close above 320 allows us to begin evaluating price structures and patterns again for potential trades. Many newer traders do not understand the concept of having a good defense is just as important as participating in high probability trade setups. The problem with Ethereum is the consolidation that is forming can turn out to be a continuation pattern toward lower prices. A close below the 280 level will further confirm this scenario. This is why we wait for the market to prove itself before continuing to add or look for new trades. If price instead breaks back above 300 and closes beyond 320, then that will help to negate the potential bearish structure. Keep in mind there is a negative sloping trend line around the 350 area which is another obstacle this market must face. In summary, while other alts like BCH and LTC have shown significant improvement, Ethereum has not. This can change, but at S.C., we let the market prove itself and do not get caught up in irrelevant opinions or feelings. Our objective is to deploy capital across markets that are displaying strength. Although this market is trying, it is currently in a position that lends itself to more of a bearish bias. What happens if Bitcoin retraces significantly? We continue to hold our inventory and remain bullish in the long run, but until structure improves, we will continue to wait on the sidelines with it comes to this market.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
7
ETHUSD: Lagging Price Action Hints At Relative Weakness.ETHUSD update: Price is beginning to perk up as Bitcoin pushes the 7K level. 300 continues to serve as a psychological resistance and does not offer an attractive location to buy by our standards. In fact, this market is still relatively weak compared to Bitcoin since it has not made a new high. At S.C., we are still waiting for these markets to at least show a structure that represents strength. Even though this price action is bullish, the overall configuration is unfolding as more of a consolidation. 320 defines the range high and needs to be taken out in order to prove this market is stronger than it has been. Like I wrote in my Litecoin article earlier today for S.C. followers, lagging markets are more vulnerable to a Bitcoin retrace. If BTC pulls back to 6700, this market can easily retest the 260s. If we are wrong, and this market is truly strong, it will prove itself first by closing above 320. Less experienced traders do not realize that stacking favorable probabilities is worth more than a random signal to buy or sell. We would rather wait until structure favors longs before continuing to add more inventory or participate in swing trades. This means there are occasions when giving up the better prices in favor of a higher probability environment is most appropriate. This market is in one of those situations. In summary, many often equate short term trading to gambling. One of the key differences is trading is a game where all the rules are defined by the player. And the player can choose to play only when conditions are most favorable. In contrast to casino games, all of the rules are defined by the house and the conditions ALWAYS favor the house. Ethereum and Litecoin are still presenting unfavorable conditions even though they are pushing higher. They should be taking out their recent high or better as Bitcoin pushes higher, and they are not. This hidden weakness often takes newer traders by surprise because they focus on time frames that are too small and have no sense of context. At S.C., we do not make up trades especially when the environment does not justify the risk. We will continue to wait on the sidelines until price structure improves. Keep in mind we still maintain inventory in both of these coins and have no intention of selling at these prices. Patience is the most valuable skill a trader can employ and this is a great situation to practice it.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
3
ETHUSD: Relative Weakness Means Wait.ETHUSD update: Since the close below 300, this market has proven to be one of the weaker alts. In typical fashion price is now finding resistance upon retesting the 300 psychological level. Any further recovery will likely be lead by BTC which is in a stronger position. At S.C., we shared a swing trade idea to go long BTC with members because we believe that is where the greatest potential is. A common mistake is to buy the most beat up candidates under the logic that they have more room to recover. This is flawed logic because usually, the super low prices are that low for a reason. I published an article (on S.C.) about Litecoin demonstrating how low too low is. There comes a point where it is no longer worth betting on until it can meet specific technical criteria again. This market has also reached that point by our standards. Keep in mind, this does NOT mean we are bearish, or have sold our inventory. All it means is we stop accumulating or looking for short term trades because there are other candidates that offer more favorable probabilities. For example, Bitcoin failed to push the 5750 low while this market and most of the alts blew through their key supports. Bitcoin is showing relative strength and if this space recovers, in theory it should rise the fastest and furthest. Why? It's structure says that it is stronger. This concept of a "too low" filter is a form of protection. ETH has been one of the weakest of the alts. Why continue to allocate capital toward something that has a greater chance of probing even lower, or not recovering to the same degree as other markets that are in a stronger position? In summary, we are not giving up on ETH. We are just no longer adding to inventory until it proves its technical worth. This is a situation where it is better to sacrifice better prices for better chances of a favorable outcome. When managing a portfolio like the one we have, our main priority is to allocate scarce capital into the markets with greatest potential. And that determination is made using market generated information and techniques to interpret it. Not feelings or opinions. Like I wrote in my Bitcoin article earlier, trading probabilities is what facilitates alignment with market intent. When this market shows an improvement in structure and presents a more favorable context, we will have no problem with building inventory further and participating in shorter time frame movements.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
8
BTCUSD: Failed Low Plus Key Support Spells Short Squeeze.BTCUSD: Price breaks the 6K psychological support only to close back above. This type of price action spells one thing: squeeze. The failed low formation off of this major support is a telling sign especially in an environment where sentiment is heavily bearish. Many do not realize that while the alts were selling off, this market refused to push the 5750 low. If weakness was dominant in this market, price should have closed below 6K at minimum. There is still bearish structure in place like the trend line just under 6300 and the 6879 level which is the .382 resistance relative to the 8500 high. A break and close above the trend line and push through 6500 can lead price into the high 6Ks in a matter of hours. The fact that the short interest is at extreme levels is also another telling sign. The crowd is often wrong at tops and bottoms and this is certainly not the top. At S.C., we have been writing about the probability of a bullish reversal around this location since June. The fact that price has returned to the location and is still proving to hold, reaffirms our analysis. Plus the reward/risk of the immediate structure is very hard to ignore. This is why at S.C., we sent out a swing trade idea to our members. In summary, when everyone is betting on the short because it is the obvious trade, that is the wrong trade to take. The pressure from the short interest alone makes the reward/risk very unattractive on the short side. What is going to drive the price the fastest are all the margin liquidations that go off in the mid 6Ks. Can this market still go lower? Sure, anything is possible. A close in the 5900's or lower will certainly negate the current strength building up in this market. Until it provides evidence of continued weakness, we will remain long. BTC has proven its resilience in the face of extreme selling. The fact that many of the alts broke below major supports while this market has not is a clear sign of strength. At S.C., we do not short these markets for a variety of reasons. When the severe squeeze liquidates a large portion of the short interest, many of the less experienced participants may then realize why. Best practices prevent us from selling into an area where the risk can't justify the limited reward potential. The only shorts you will see us in are the wearable ones.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
17
Why is it so difficult to Trade BTC? What is next? 8% up last Hello followers, There was a big drop on BTC, but volume started to pick up, and market decided that it was ready to go Long. It is always very dangerous and difficult to trade on Cryptocurrency and Bitcoin, but there are signs of changes, and on good thing to look is the market flow. On Aug. 11 we posted a go long chart, to subscribers, because we could se a big move up on BTC, and so far, they are on 8% profit. Now, market could make a great move up, but we have to monitor what is going to happen in between. There are some factors that could happen that could take price down hard. So, what's next? Be careful next days, and be careful. Good Luck and Good profit.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDLong
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
15
ETHUSD: Avoid The Middle. Looking For Fake Out.ETHUSD update: Price is consolidating around the 464 level as this market is pulled back and forth by the indecisive BTC market. Symmetrical triangles are tricky formations since the closer to the middle price gyrates, the more random it is. The best thing to do in a situation like this is wait it out which is not what the crowd wants to hear. Earlier on S.C., I wrote about patience and how being flat is also a position. It is far from glamorous, but market timing is mostly about waiting. The typical strategy for a triangle is to buy or sell the break out. So we look to do the opposite. We do not short these markets. If you were watching the short squeeze earlier today in BTC, you may now have an idea as to why. At S.C., if we want to short something we look at the forex markets which are much more stable and mature. This makes our objective simple. Wait for the next long setup. Even though triangles are known to be continuation patterns, they are also known for their failed breakouts. And that is what we are looking to capitalize on. Any significant retrace is going to shake a lot of weak hands and that is where we look to buy, not the resistance breakout. I wrote a report earlier on S.C. that covered the specific levels that we are watching. In summary, patience is what leads to consistency over the long term. High probability setups are more than a candle stick formation. They also account for the underlying formation and the context of the price location. These are factors that are often overlooked, especially by less experienced traders who put too much weight on oscillators. Tired of missing out? How about accumulating inventory when the market is hated like it was just a couple of weeks ago? Short term trading is not just all in, all out, all your capital, in one trade and hope for the home run. Allocating capital across multiple strategies and time frames helps to capture moves that are otherwise tough to trade into. This requires organization and a plan, but it doesn't have to be complicated. There are basic elements of timing markets that you don't hear about. Things like having a specific procedure not just for entering and exiting a market but for your analytical process as well. If it sounds like too much, then begin with a broader investing strategy which helps develop a better foundation for perspective. Small time frames like the 1 hour or less requires a ton of experience to utilize properly. And I mention this because many traders get caught up in the confusion. Just something to consider.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
4
BTCUSD: Buy The Supports, Not The Hype.BTCUSD update: Inside bar is established just after the 8500 peak. This points to the beginning of a retrace but how far? The most common mistake is to attempt to short this market because of the perceived bearish potential. It is a mistake because the momentum is clearly bullish. Probability favors shallow retraces and supportive levels. This is a time to be patient and wait for longs, not take high risk shorts. At S.C., we locked in an 11% profit on some inventory that we were accumulating while the "experts" were shouting BTC 3K. We were simply following best practices which say buy weakness and sell strength. We also employ strategies across multiple time frames and don't depend on one like swing trading alone. Like Andrew tells our followers, its about base hits, not the home run mentality. Many more aggressive and impatient traders figure they will make money on the short side. Especially now that this market has so much room to pull back. This perspective may be appropriate for day trade strategies but any larger time frame and you are asking for trouble. Why work against the momentum when all you have to do is wait for price to offer an opportunity that is packed with potential. Like a retrace to a support. The 7500 area is the nearest relevant support (.382 of bullish structure). You are looking at 500 point potential on a short vs. about 1000+ points potential on a long if a reversal appears somewhere between 8K and 7500. Trying to play both sides often leads to confusion, forced trades and unnecessary fees. Not to mention the slippage you must pay when your stop orders don't fill at a fair price. This is typical when caught in a short squeeze. Patience on the other hand costs nothing, requires very little energy and if you are wrong and the market leaves you behind, your account is still intact. Patience pays off when the market eventually presents that infrequent high probability setup. In summary, at S.C. we constantly push for best practices. We are still bullish on this market just like we were 3 months ago. We believe in the merit of these technologies and follow probabilities as revealed by our charts, not nonsensical hype that this space is polluted with. When momentum shifts like it has in BTC, the probabilities of the coming support and resistance levels also change. Instead of fighting the market, we simply wait for it to align with our criteria. You do not have to be an expert to utilize the skill of patience. You do need to have a decision making process in place, no matter how simple or complex. This process is what leads to the criteria that needs to be matched by the market. No match, no trade. That makes patience much easier than trying to compete with the fear of missing out. Our plan is to buy the pull back when price presents an attractive level, formation and setup. At the moment we are anticipating the mid 7500s. Any lower and we will be looking for more accumulation opportunities as well.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
56
BTCUSD: Bullish Confirmation Means Wait For Better Buy.BTCUSD update: Short squeeze straight to the 7381 resistance level. Impressive move and the kind that has not been seen in some time. The move serves as the confirmation that a broader recovery is in progress, but the high is no place to buy. The objective now is to identify where the next buying opportunity is likely to materialize. As I wrote in my previous BTC report, a break above 6850 activates the inverted head and shoulders and that is now in the realm of Captain Obvious. All of the "experts" who were all shouting BTC 3K are now all shouting BTC 10K. Where were they in June? The confirmed inverted head and shoulders signifies a broader bullish movement is now in progress. This means support levels are more likely to hold and resistances break. 7381 is the .382 resistance of the bearish structure relative to 9990 high. This is a key level that needs to be cleared in order to pave the way for a recovery back to 10K. There will be minor resistances along the way, and they will serve as potential targets, not levels to short. As of now, this is a location to lock in profit if you have some. Do not be distracted by the noise emanating from the talking heads or your own urge to buy. Patience pays, not forced trades. At S.C., we are waiting for the next swing trade setup. Based on current structure, the first attractive location is the 6823 support (.382 of the recent bullish structure relative to the 5750 low). In summary, no one can predict when these types of moves are going to unfold. It is all about the probability of the location. At the lows I specifically pointed out that sentiment was completely inverse to where we were at the December highs. Now that price has established clear bullish structure, we can form new expectations about behavior in the near future. It is reasonable to expect higher lows and supports to hold. We know where the most attractive prices are, but we don't know if the market will test them. No market rallies in a straight line. Over the next week or so, a retrace of an unknown magnitude is likely. At S.C. patience is our guide as we follow best practices and wait for a favorable setup. Also there is a rumor that I am leaving TV. I am flattered that the community would notice something like that, but it is NOT true. This community has been very warm and supportive and I am grateful for the ability and experience to be able to help others on here. I was new to this game once and understand the struggles all too well. There is no better reward than people reaching out to thank me for providing a better learning experience. All I wrote in my previous report was at S.C. we are making some changes in regard to the availability of our content.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
53
BTCUSD: Playing Noise On The Way To 6850.BTCUSD update: The 6320 inside bar high has been taken out which equates to a long trigger. Since then price has been slow to rally which is not surprising in this environment. Even though the inverted head and shoulders is still in progress, there is a lot of indecision. And this indecision offers opportunities if you know what they look like. Earlier today I published a trade article on S.C. for Litecoin. The article highlighted another swing trade idea which is in the form of a limit order. We have been fishing for better prices with limit orders because we are not in an aggressive freight train market. Instead we are in an order flow environment that is unsure of itself. This means buying breakouts is going to be a tough game. Why take pain when you can take advantage of it instead? That is the premise behind placing limit orders under the market in this environment. As long as our bigger picture scenario is still in play, we are willing to take the risks associated with these types of orders. We have an order sitting at 6120 which almost triggered a couple of days ago. This is within the 6167 to 5999 minor support zone (.618 of recent bullish swing). Any retest of this area will present a new buying opportunity as long as a reversal sign appears such as a pin bar. Reasonable potential for this market is 6850 which is the recent swing high. If this market can get through that, the 7120 reversal zone boundary serves as the next target. In summary, the next week should be an interesting one. All BTC needs is an unexpected catalyst to spark the squeeze. And this is not something an oscillator will help you with. Only the probability of the location along with best practices can at least guide you along the right path. If our limit order never gets filled, that is okay because at S.C. we simply wait for the next opportunity to present itself. Missing trade setups will not wipe out your trading account, but forcing trades will. The only penalty you get for being patient is the one you put on yourself. We are going to restrict our analysis and reports on S.C. to members only. Make sure to learn and observe what you can before we changeover.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
10
ETHUSD: 442 Inside Bar Trigger Setting Up For Low 500s Target.ETHUSD update: Price has tested the 423 reversal zone boundary for a second time. Following BTC, it appears this market is also gearing up to establish a higher low formation. There is now a new inside bar in place. If the next candle takes out the 442 high, it will activate a buy trigger and The next leg higher can run into the resistance zone around the low 500's. Earlier today I published an article on S.C. that touched on the inverted head and shoulders pattern that is in progress in the BTC market. Price is currently establishing the right shoulder and missed my limit buy order by 5 points. If BTC manages to maintain the higher low, it will signal a new wave of bullish momentum in general. An inverted head and shoulders pattern in BTC is a significant sign of broader strength. This is the type of pattern that can be anticipated in a high probability reversal location like BTC has been in for some time. And if BTC chooses to test 6850, that would coincide with this market testing the 494 to 518 minor resistance (.618 of recent bearish swing relative to 548 high). That would also result in the break of the more recent bearish trend line in the 470s which further adds to the bullish argument. What makes this market even more compelling is the attractiveness of the reward/risk. Risk can be measured from the 417 low or 392 low, which ever one is more in line with your tolerance. From current levels that is anywhere from 14 to 40 points of risk while the reward potential is at least 60 points. At S.C., this certainly fits within the parameters of our swing trade criteria. In summary, like I have been writing in my S.C. articles, a market that is going through the bottoming process will be noisy. Understanding how to use technical analysis to measure probabilities is key to navigating an environment like this. Keep in mind, the inside bar low can also be taken out which would generate a sell trigger. This is when you must consider the probability of the broader location and is part of the reason why we place more weight on the buy trigger. Consider focusing on tools that help you anticipate rather than react. Support and resistance and candle sticks are two elements that offer a better read compared to your standard oscillator. Often the best opportunities start out as the ugliest prices.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
4
ETHUSD: Triangle Points To Strength. Noise Offers Better Entry.ETHUSD update: As price consolidates, the formation that is unfolding signals further strength. A break above 476 and this market will be facing the 494 to 518 minor resistance zone. Obviously a break out in BTC is key. We are more interested in any retest of lower prices for either a failed breakout or higher low scenario. Triangles are typically trend continuation patterns. The standard buying of breakouts during these formations is not a bad idea if you are feeling aggressive. At S.C., we have been long term bullish for months but it is not in our plan to be aggressively bullish on the short term. We anticipate high probability opportunities IF this market, along with BTC, offers any retest of lower prices. This can unfold in the form of a failed range breakout on the bearish side, or a higher low structure around the 423 reversal zone boundary. We choose this more conservative stance because the 571 resistance level is still intact. This is the .382 resistance of the recent bearish structure relative to the 838 high. It helps us determine if a broader bullish movement is in progress or not. Since it is not, yet, the short term is more likely to be in a larger range bound environment. Like I have written numerous times, bottoms are a process and that process offers plenty of entry opportunities if you know what they look like. In summary, there is nothing wrong with taking a bullish break out if the next leg higher unfolds. We will not call it as a trade because it is better managed as a day trade in light of the risk and speed of change in this market. We navigate these markets according to the criteria set forth by our plan and so should you with yours. We also have to consider risk in light of the fact that our choices can also affect the actions of our followers which is why we lean more to the conservative side. As the short term price action transitions back to bullish, there will be a lot of noise. The most attractive opportunities will be the lows of this noisy range as long as a decisive new low is not established. Plan ahead for the possibilities and be prepared for those scenarios if they appear. If any swing trade opportunities present themselves, they will be shared with our followers.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
4
BTCUSD: Break Of Bearish Trend Line Means Bulls Taking Control.BTCUSD update: Inside bar formation leads to price spike into the 6431 to 6614 resistance zone. This should not be that surprising if you have been following my recent articles on S.C. and on here. The bearish trend line which was compromised in this move is the first confirmation that a broader bullish move is in progress. It all started with the pin bar 8 days ago. I wrote about the significance of it's size and location. The 6431 to 6614 resistance happens to be a minor .618 zone relative to the recent 6850 high. The simultaneous break of this zone and bearish trend line are significant signs of strength. As I wrote in my S.C. article earlier today, the shallow higher low which has been established by the inside bar, is a riskier location for a swing trade. Our plan is to wait for the next retrace in order to enter a swing trade long. An attractive location for a setup would be the 6126 to 5977 support zone (.618 of current bullish swing). In light of the probability of this broader area, we are anticipating a higher low formation rather than a retest of the lows on the next pull back. The mistake to avoid is to chase this market now. Even though it has potential on the bigger picture, the risk of retrace increases as it climbs. At S.C. we have been writing about accumulating inventory for weeks across all of these coins. As this market bottoms, we are in a general position to benefit, whether we catch the smaller individual trades or not. And that is the whole point of employing strategies across multiple time horizons. In summary, do not worry if you missed this squeeze. As I wrote on S.C., opportunities are infinite but at the same time infrequent. Patience is your best friend in these markets. One of the most valuable skills you can develop as a trader is the ability to wait. If a broader move higher is truely in progress, there will be more opportunities to get long that offer much better reward/risk. The next retrace will be a very important test for this market. Prepare for it now rather than fretting over the movement that has resulted from signs that appeared days ago.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
11
BTCUSD: Short Squeeze As USD Peaks. Is This The Beginning?BTCUSD update: After the 6170 long trigger, price tested the 6431 to 6614 minor resistance zone quickly. This also happens to be where the bearish trend line is located. This type of price action is not a surprise since we have been writing about the high probability location for at least two weeks now. The 6K psychological support, reversal zone boundaries at 5956 and 5669 along with the 8171 to 4938 broad support have been the focus. At S.C. we have been building inventory and continue to look for long trades in these markets. What appears to be the key driver behind this surge in momentum is the U.S. Dollar. If you take a look at a larger time frame Dollar Index chart, you will notice the same type of price action, but inverted. Instead of a failed low, you will observe a failed high. Interestingly enough, this reversal can been seen across forex pairs that counter the Dollar like EUR and GBP. Do not forget, the major coins trade against fiat, and the world reserve currency is still the USD. That means it carries the most weight. Any broad moves in the Dollar can have dramatic effects on these coins. If there is now a higher correlation to the USD, I want to be aware of it. For this reason I will be publishing a technical report on the USD on S.C. tomorrow so make sure to look for it. In summary, at S.C., we are waiting for the next swing trade entry long. Since bearish structures are still in play, a retrace is likely, but the probability of a subsequent higher low has increased. Any pull back into the 6K area, followed by a long trigger will prompt us to participate in another long trade idea. Stops and targets will continue to be conservative until broader bearish structures are taken out such as the 7381 resistance (.382 of current bearish structure). The probability of the broader location outweighs the smaller time frame noise. And it has been reiterating long over and over. Do not lose sight, especially if this market decides to retest the lows once more. The next pull back will either make or break the broader reversal that appears to be in progress.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
10
ETHUSD: Short Squeeze Setting Up. Can Lead To 490s.ETHUSD update: This market is poised to rally. The break of the 443 previous candle high was a long trigger. I am not calling any trade ideas on here because that is what S.C. is for, but I will highlight the potential. Price went as low as 405 which looked ugly, but the key is how the candle closes. This candle that established the low closed strong, and it this materialized off of the 423 reversal zone boundary. A bullish sign to say the least. I have been writing on S.C., that these markets are bottoming, but it takes time and a lot of patience. The structure and location have been weighing probability on the side of strength, even in the face of the recent bearish price action. The current low of 405 is not dramatically lower than the recent 450 swing low. Along with that, all of this price action is still occurring well above the 374 historical low. This sums up to a broad higher low formation and BTC is doing the same thing basically. If these markets rally, a short term expectation is at least the 490s for this market. That is a conservative view since the short term bearish structures are still intact and must be considered until they are taken out. In summary, broader structure and location are panting a picture of reward/risk that is skewed toward the bullish side across these markets. The bearish structures that are still in play suggest conservative expectations would be most appropriate for size, target and stop. Remember that market bottoms are a process and take time to develop. In that process lows can be tested and retested before any meaningful progress on the long side unfolds. Any new swing trade long ideas that we take on S.C., will be shared with our followers.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
9
ETHUSD: Bottoming Formation Materialzing Around 423 Level.ETHUSD update: Similar to the bottoming pattern in BTC, this market is now in a high probability area to retrace. What makes this market even more interesting is the fact that the current low is still no where near the 374 low. A rally here is not only a broader sign of strength, but offers greater potential compared to a counter trend retrace. Earlier today on S.C., I published a BTC article about bottoming patterns. They are usually made up of a series of structures, but what makes them most significant is where they are developing. The pattern is actually clearer in this market than it is in BTC. The 418 low is not that much lower than the 450 low, a pin bar is present off the 423 reversal zone boundary and now a spinning top is materializing off the same level. Together, these structures could be the beginning of an inverted head and shoulders formation which is bullish. If this pattern continues to unfold around the current price level, it would also be establishing a very broad higher low formation. I wrote about this in a previous report that looked at the Elliott Wave count. The potential target for a broader higher low formation is the 581 resistance (.382 of recent bearish structure). This will not happen over night, but certainly within reason over the next month. In summary, like I have been writing on S.C., we always consider the broad probability of the location when evaluating levels and trends. We do not rely on oscillators or moving averages for these situations because they are not the most effective tools for anticipating broad reversals. For that reason we manage inventory as well as short term swing trades when the risk makes sense. At the present, the reward/risk is favoring both position and swing trade strategies long. It is all a matter of having a process to quantify that risk and decide if it is within the scope of your tolerance. If the current spinning top closes and the next candle takes out the high, that is a technical trigger to go long. We are long BTC so we will not be officially calling this trade idea in order to keep risk within the scope of our overall plan.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
14
#BTCUSD - TIME TO GO LONG ! Medium Term - It is Free - Enjoy !Hi Followers and Friends, Finally=> Go Long for a Big Wave. PROs Surfers Can see a Big Wave formation far ahead and the best spot to stay to get on it, as regular surfers cannot see anything coming. Actually, beginners and intermediate surfers spot fake waves and waist energy and time, riding short and bad waves. To get on a good wave, that will last long and give you the best ride, is not something easy. You need to spot it very far ahead, because you need to paddle to the exact place to be able to ride it. Then you have to believe on it, and paddle hard to stay on it, until the the wave starts to break. It is the same thing here on crypto trading. Moving Water is working really hard for you to spot the market flow. As you all know, MOVING WATER does not grounds it's Technical Analysis on graphic trading patterns, or drawings, but on the market flow, just like the waves flow. The main mistake that traders repeat is to consider the same graphic patterns to different market moments. The ocean has many patterns, but they are different almost every time. So, before using a pattern is necessary to understand the market flow. Market is not rigid, and does not respect rigid forms, because, like the waves, it is Not Rigid. BTC / Bitcoin just hit a very strong support area and now has ground to search and test higher prices. Like the Moving Water predicted a long time ago, it was necessary for BTCUSD re-test 6K, that just happened. Target is on the chart. Could go a litter higher or lower, depending on the market flow and the broker you use. Let's see if the Moving Water can Spot a Big Wave. Hope the Best for you All. M.W. Good Luck and Good Profit ___________________________________________________________ ADVICE: __________ => DON'T LOSE: Remember This is Very Dangerous Market so try to not Lose All Your Money on This, and You can already call yourself a winner: Beginners: Don't Trade (Bullish/Bearish) Market - Don't Trade Bull Trap - Don't Borrow Money Intermediate : Trade Bullish Market Only (Low Risk) - Don't Short - Don't Borrow Money Advanced: Trade Bullish or Bearish Market ( Low Risk) - Don't Trade Bull Trap - Don't Borrow Money Experienced: Trade Bullish or Bearish Market ( Medium Risk) - Trade Bull Trap (Low Risk) - Borrow Some Money Top: Trade Bullish or Bearish Market (High Risk - Big Money) - Trade Bull Trap (High Risk) - Borrow Some Money Follow This and the Risk of Losing Everything Falls to 90%. ______________________________________ => MARKET FLOW: Market never happens at once, there will always be many moves inside the waves if you look close enough. When I spot a Trend and post it here, it does not mean it will go at once, or at that exact moment I post. These Charts I post are Medium/Long Term - so takes weeks/months to complete. => CHARTS = (MEDIUM/LONG) TERM - Please Don't Be Confused (Takes weeks/months to Complete) ___________________________________ => PLACING ORDERS: At this moment, I am NOT offering buy and sell signals, you need to Do Your Own Research when Placing Your Orders and Stop Loss. You must do your own due diligence. => STOP LOSS: That's a responsibility a person should have with their own money, I don't have the influence on that. I strongly advise you to use a stop loss. Try to catch the waves, but with a secure area, and limit your risks, considering a loss you can afford. _________________________________________ => MORE INFORMATION: check Related Ideas Below. => PLEASE: Comment, Suggest better ideas, Ask questions inbox, Help me improve, Give a Like and Follow.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
284