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Bullishmomentum

BTCUSD: Randomness At Its Best Waiting For Better Setup.BTCUSD update: This market is trading around the middle of a consolidation. This is probably the most random price action you can possibly get and is best to avoid. The reason is simple: price is consolidating near multiple resistance levels. With the 7896 resistance zone boundary still in play, it is tough to justify swing trade longs at this level. As I wrote earlier on S.C., price is currently within the 7620 to 7687 minor resistance zone which is a .618 of the recent bearish swing. Overlapping this level is the bearish trend line that has been in play for some time. On top of that, 7896 is just over 200 points above, which is very possible for this market to test. This level is a reversal zone boundary which means if the break out of this consolidation is going to fail, that is the most likely area for it to happen. Remember, this does not mean it will fail. Price may very well break through and test the 8185 resistance which I have been writing about for some time. The idea is to be prepared in case price does present reversal patterns. At S.C., we have nothing to do but watch since there are no patterns worth justifying risk. We are keeping close eye on a number of alts and accumulating them for our portfolios, but that is beyond the scope of this article. In my earlier report, I talked about the levels that we are interested in. If the market is able to retest, then perhaps we get an opportunity. All we can do is follow our plan, not force on plan on the market.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
19
ETHUSD: Poised To Break Higher But 641 Points To Vulnerability.ETHUSD update: The slow grind is a pleasant market to watch if you are managing positions over the long term. If you are trying to open a new position, it can be very hard to watch because it can turn at any point, but slowly continues higher. What is not obvious is the risk of retrace which I will talk more about in this report. Price is about to retest the 625 resistance (.382 of recent bearish swing). This level has previously proven to attract selling activity. The question is do these bears return? The higher low established at 575 indicates that price is more likely to push higher, but this is where the risk of retrace comes into play. The 641 reversal zone boundary is relative to the 628 high and is the area to watch for bearish formations IF a fake out is in order for these markets. Keep in mind, this is not a prediction, it is a scenario to be prepared for. If the newly established bullish trend line stays intact, this market may be on its way to a new high and a decisive close above the 628 level. This will change the short term outlook from bearish to bullish. At S.C., we are not taking any new swing trade longs because price is too close to resistance levels. We would rather miss the low probability trade, even if it works out this time. We know that in the long run, the same trade would produce inconsistent results and that is not in line with our goal. Our plan is to wait for better prices which means a retest of 575 would have to happen. If price continues higher, then we will be evaluating for the next swing trade long opportunity.
COINBASE:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
9
BTCUSD: Higher Low, But Climbing Back Into Reversal Zone.BTCUSD update: Dramatic run up back to 7600s after making a low of 7372. About 40 points above the support zone I wrote about previously. It does not matter why it happened. What is more important is what is likely to happen next and is there any opportunity here? In one sentence, the answer is there is nothing here. No level, no trade setup. Just random price action. Price is touching the bearish trend line and appears poised to break, but that is not enough information for us to justify a trade. At S.C., we are not interested in any new long positions at this level. We will especially be steering clear of any prices near the 7896 reversal zone boundary. Also we are not losing sight of the fact that 8185 is still intact. This is the .382 resistance of the recent bearish structure. As long as this level is not compromised, we will be leaning more to the bear side in the short term. Keep in mind this does not mean we go short. We are long term bullish and are interested in swing trade long setups, and extreme prices to add to long term inventory. If you do have the ability to go short, I would keep risk to a minimum by limiting exposure to day trade strategies. And that is beyond the scope of my article. In summary, yes it's dramatic but there is no reason to react. If this market is going to break out, there will be plenty of new opportunities along the way. Until then, be patient and look ahead to see where the next potential inflection points are. If the market reacts at one of these points, you should at least have a better idea of what to expect. The question you must ask yourself: is it within the range of your trading plan to participate? If you don't know how to answer that, then you probably need to work on developing a well defined plan. Watch S.C. for more updates.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
26
ETHUSD: Swing Trade Long And Facing The Bearish Trendline.ETHUSD update: A swing trade idea was triggered at the break of 543.50 which was published on S.C. earlier today. There is also a follow up article that explains the reasoning behind the trade. As you can see, the trade is in the green for now. This retrace should not come as a suprise though. We have been writing about the support zones and risk of short squeeze for at least a week. When price reaches a predetermined level like the 544 to 464 support (.618 of recent bullish structure), it helps us to lean more toward expecting a reversal. Even when there is no sign of one which has been the case for the previous few days. It begins with probability and then is followed by pattern recognition. As far as where this market can go, the next resistance is 625 (.382 of recent bearish structure). There is no guarantee that price will go there, but in terms of proportion, this level is within reason. On S.C., I wrote about a specific target and why we chose that level. Keep in mind, there is a bearish trend line that is still in play. This is why we choose to lean more toward the conservative side when determining where to begin exiting the position. Can price retest the high 600's? Anything can happen, but we focus on probability, not profit. If the market chooses to continue to run, there will be plenty of opportunity to lighten up on the position and let some ride. In summary, this is a swing trade. It differs greatly from a position trade because of it's shorter term nature and specifically defined risk. We have also been building inventory during the general pessimism across a portfolio of coins, not just this one. When markets are ugly, that is the time to accumulate. When they look the greatest, that is the time to unload. In order to operate in line with this concept, you must separate yourself from your own natural impulses. Natural impulses like buying a market at the high, or being bearish at the low is further amplified by all of the hype, drama and social noise. Price is the best piece of information we can get, it is just a matter of learning how to listen to it.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
11
S&P500 Futures: Lack Of Selling And 2751 Breakout This Week?S&P500 update: The June futures contract is extending its consolidation further. Taking into account the context of the bigger picture, this market is still poised to go higher. Even in the face of a retrace to the 2680s, structure points to a summer rally. In this report I will highlight the levels to watch for and touch on one particular strategy we like to employ at S.C. in this environment. It is important to understand where this market is, and how its current behavior tells a story behind the price action. The 2710 to 2751 resistance zone is the .618 area of the recent bearish swing. When price is in an area like this, it is usually better to sell, or avoid, not buy. Unless there is an absence of selling which is what is happening here. Usually, when price reaches a resistance area, it is rejected quickly. When price is not rejected, that means there is no real selling pressure. The shorts that are positioning themselves are going to provide the order flow and momentum as motivated buyers once an appropriate catalyst invites new buyers. This short squeeze is often what leads to a break out and 2740 is the number we are watching for that. Triangles or consolidations serve as trend continuation patterns. And as long as the 2685 level (.382 of current bullish structure) is not taken out, this market is likely to continue higher. This is why we believe the current price structure and formation is a recipe for a summer rally. As I wrote in detail in my article on S.C. earlier today, there are many ways to participate in a market environment like this. Since we manage a number of portfolios at S.C., one of the strategies that we employ is selling naked puts. Yes in general a short put is risky and ties up a lot of margin, but we do this with particular stocks that pay dividends, not speculative stocks. In a slow grind bullish environment, front month puts sold at the right time can provide a nice way to capitalize on the range bound environment. If the market falls apart and you choose to take delivery, you are essentially getting paid to own a good stock that you can then collect dividends and sell calls on. In summary, the S&P is a not only a broad index to measure fund managers against, but it provides a lot of useful information to base other decisions on. Knowing that the stock market is generally strong and still has more potential (2800 to 3K over next 6 months) provides a framework to manage your portfolio within. Whether you want to trade outright futures contracts, the ETF or timing portfolio decisions, there is plenty of opportunity. It all depends on your style and how you manage risk. At S.C. we employ multiple strategies, across a variety of instruments. Options are just one way to play. Make sure to check out today's article and performance page.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarcPMarkets
4
Good News ! Why Mistake ? Consensus Conference - 2018Hi, Trading View - Welcome Followers and Visitors, How nice is to be aware of a good news, before everybody else, and invest in it before goes moon with 100% accuracy? So, Good News ? How could it Go Wrong ? Well, that is not so easy as it seems. Example of Good News: The Initial public offering of Facebook, on May 18, opened on $38 and on August 20, it dropped to $20, even though banks and investment advisors told all around the opposite. www.washingtonpost.com en.wikipedia.org Market is never so easy, but always creative constantly coming up with new moves, and surprises for those who think it is easy. Don't Trust Good News or Bad News to trade, but the Market Flow. The Consensus Conference - 2018 is ongoing - What Now for BTCUSD / BTCUSDT / BTC ? www.forbes.com Good News or Bad News? Bitcoin is it still going Moon? What do you think? For MORE INFORMATION check Related Charts below. Feel free to: comment, suggest better ideas, ask questions inbox, help me improve, post a better chart on the comment, Give A Like and Follow. ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ADVICE: _______ STOP LOSS is something everybody should use, everything is possible in this market. But, that's a responsibility a person should have with their money, I don't have the influence on that. I strongly advise, you to use a stop loss. In this crazy world everything is possible, even a sudden going to 0. Ex: If there is a world war. So, try to catch the waves, but with a secure area, and limit your risks, considering what you can afford. __________________________________________ GOOD LUCK & GOOD PROFIT. Please Press -- LIKE -- , If so, Thank You. Thanks for following.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
12
Spotted:Big Fall & Bull Trap -6 days Before Bad News. Possible ?Hi, Followers and Visitors, Welcome. First of all, thank you for trusting: 3rd TARGET HIT ! Is it possible to spot a Bull Trap, then a Big Fall on BTCUSD , 6 days before Bad News comes and becomes Viral ? The Moving Water - A New Trading Perspective, actually, did spot it, because it does not wait for bad news to spot a fall. Doesn't trust on bad news or good news. Doesn't wait on them. Considers the chart, and all the informations that the market gives. As you can see, after bad news was viral, panic came up, and it was too late to get money, or not lose it. Also, before that, still there was a FOMO. ( Fear of Missing Out). Even though news was already out online, many people believed it was time to buy BTC, because it was time to go UP hard, so don't trade FOMOS. Again, I am sorry for those who are long and bought it at 19k, but when market says it is going down, or going up, no one holds it. So, it is not my fault if it is going down. I just can see it. Don't believe that my small analysis could influence the market. Not even whole Trading View are able to influence and stop a big wave. Posted the bull trap chart on May 3rd, for BTCUSDT , saying it would go to 10k, but just after that, it had an update saying: 10 k is out, because, The Moving Water could spot that BTC was not gonna hit 10k on top of the Bull Trap, and it did not get there but very close, as you can see on the chart. So far so good. 2 targets to go. For more information check related charts below. Feel free to: comment, suggest better ideas, ask questions inbox, help me improve, post a better chart on the comment, and GIVE A LIKE and FOLLOW. ADVICE: STOP LOSS is something everybody should use, everything is possible in this market. But, that's a responsibility a person should have with their money, I don't have the influence on that. GOOD LUCK & GOOD PROFIT. PLEASE: Press LIKE Thanks for following.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
31
S&P500 Futures: Price Vulnerable To Selling At These Levels.S&P500 Update: This market has broken above the bearish resistance line after the appearance of a bearish pin bar within that area. Price is now nearing the 2710 to 2751 resistance zone which makes it vulnerable for the next retrace. The failed low off of the 2615 to 2587 support zone (.618 of recent bullish structure) is an important clue when it comes to the bigger picture possibilities of this market. That broader higher low structure implies that a bullish breakout of this overall consolidation is more likely which sets the stage for a summer rally. The problem is price is now in a short term area that makes it vulnerable to selling. The 2710 to 2751 is the .618 resistance relative to the recent bearish structure and has proven to be an attractive level to sell previously. The thing to consider this time is the fact that higher lows often lead to higher highs, and this market is coming from a higher low. So how is this information helpful? If you are trading the futures, longs are risky at these levels, especially if you are looking for swing trades. If you are using this market to time your stock portfolio, there isn't much to do here. There is no reason to add any longs, and no reason to take defensive measures against a more significant pull back. This market is heavily driven by sentiment that comes from earnings and economic data. If any of those variables come in less stellar than expected, it can take this market back toward the 2650s which is nothing more than range bound price action. In summary, this market is strong overall and the current resistance level ahead is really more for day traders and scalpers to be aware of as far as the short term probabilities go. Otherwise, any retrace in this market can be a good gauge to enter good stocks for the longer time horizon. At S.C. this is how we use this market for portfolio strategies where we utilize carefully selected stocks and options.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarcPMarkets
1
ETHUSD: Higher Low Signals Strength But Inside Resistance Zone.ETHUSD update: Higher low forming inside resistance zone while momentum remains bullish. On top of that, there is a bullish pin bar that may signal further buying for a potential higher high. While BTC has a somewhat similar formation, this market happens to be inside a resistance zone while BTC is not. As I write continuously, best practices say buy supports, sell resistances, but always remember to consider context. In the current situation, there is a bit of a conflict. There is a shallow higher low forming within the 741 to 845 resistance zone (.618 of recent bearish structure). Often higher lows lead to higher highs, and in this case, since momentum is clearly bullish, it is within reason to expect this resistance to break. With that being said, I believe this market will follow BTC which is in a slightly better position to rally which can lead this market into the next reversal zone defined by the 876 boundary. Although a shallow higher low is a very aggressive trade, we are not issuing a buy signal for this market (especially since a signal was issued on BTC. See S.C.). The more attractive location for a swing trade long is the 656 support (.382 of current bullish structure). Price may not retrace back to that level though, especially if BTC pushes its resistance zone. This is a tough call because as all the coins are poised to go higher, this particular market is less attractive because of the risk associated with such a location. Best practices offer a general guide to positioning yourself alongside the intent of the market. Buying a strong market, one that makes higher lows and higher highs is appropriate, but context is an important consideration when it comes to assessing the risk. And when I mention risk, I am not just talking about the possible loss, but also the probability of the trade following through which is a different and tough to evaluate variable. If we are going to call an aggressive trade, we would rather choose BTC since it is in a more attractive position compared to this market. Remember, the purpose of these posts is to provide insight and perspective, because when it comes to taking risk, you have to be able to do that within the boundaries of your own tolerance and trading process. You must be able to make your own independent decisions, and know exactly why you make them and recognize when the market is not cooperating quickly. Check out S.C. for more.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
8
S&P500: Higher Low Can Lead To Test Of 2710 Again Soon.S&P500 Update: This chart puts Friday's strong market close into perspective. There is a failed low and bullish pin bar off the 2615 to 2587 support zone. This bullish configuration can lead to a consolidation breakout and retest of the 2710 to 2751 resistance zone. Earnings, economic data and political catalysts sway sentiment in this market constantly, but it is important not to lose sight of the levels. The 2615 to 2587 support zone is the .618 area relative to the recent bullish structure. This is an area to look for buying activity which appeared Thursday by the close. Friday was when a bullish trigger occurred along with dramatic follow though. This information is valuable even if you are not trading the S&P outright. Since this market generally acts as a broader market gauge, you can use signals in this market to help time decisions in individual companies. For example, the current technical structure implies broader strength in the near term. If this market breaks out of its consolidation and pushes the 2751 resistance level, it may be well on its way toward the 3K level which sets the stage for a summer rally. Keep in mind, this market is very sensitive to many economic and political variables. Don't be distracted by the reaction to this information, instead question how price is behaving at the predetermined levels. Now that momentum has shifted back to bullish, the next relevant area to consider is the 2710 to 2751 resistance zone (.618 of recent bearish structure). If price can close strong in this area, then it is more likely to push into the next zone which is the 2746 to 2804 area. In summary, overall price is still within a broader consolidation but there are signs that imply a broader bullish breakout is more likely. Monitor fundamental catalysts but do not fall victim to exaggerated news or over dramatized hype. Instead, use the levels that this market faces as it moves forward as more of a measure of reality. If price breaks below the 2587 support, then more bearish sentiment should be expected, otherwise, this market is still following the bullish road map that has been outlined by the long term Elliott Wave count available on S.C. There is no guarantee that the market will stay on this path, but watch for fundamentals that reinforce this technical view along the way and plan ahead, do not react. Questions and comments welcome.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarcPMarkets
2
BTCUSD: Poised To Push 10K, But Far From Levels For New Longs.BTCUSD update: Price fluctuates around the 9861 reversal zone boundary as it breaks an inside bar in an attempt to go higher. Great price action if you are long, but as price continues higher, the risk of retrace increases. Price is now pushing further into the 9683 to 10561 resistance zone (.618 of recent bearish structure). For the short sighted, it appears that price will continue higher and higher, which is possible, but more often than not, resistance levels attract selling. The 9861 reversal zone boundary happens to be inside this wide resistance zone which emphasizes the resistance even more. Now keep in mind, there are plenty of bullish signs that are still intact which can present a very conflicting situation. Price is maintaining a clearly bullish trend line, and the 8514 support (.382 of current bullish swing) is still intact. With bullish momentum still in play, higher prices are likely. The problem is the level of risk. When I mention risk, I am talking about risk in terms of initiating new swing trade longs. Buying within this resistance zone is like buying at 18.5K. Yeah there is some upside left, but if you are not nimble, or just distracted by greed, you will more than likely stay in the trade if it weakness sets in. Weakness can take this market back to the 8514 level which will be a perfectly healthy and normal retrace. Do you want buy now and take that chance? In summary, temporary weakness can engulf this market out of nowhere, especially at these levels. Price can go as high as 10561 before any signs of weakness set in which can be very seductive. At S.C., we observe best practices which simply means we buy supports and sell resistances. As great as price action looks, the predetermined levels are what help us maintain consistency, even if it means sitting out during what appears to be "hot" market moves. We want to capitalize on the herd mentality, not be part of it and that means we wait for a retrace, no matter how far the market moves without us. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
37
ETHUSD: Not Buying Highs While Waiting For Retrace To 590s.ETHUSD update: Price pushing into major resistance zone and breaks the 764 key level. Like I wrote in my earlier report on S.C., buying in this area for a swing trade carries a high degree of risk. When a market trades like the way this one is, where it consolidated above the trend line and broke out to new highs, it looks like an easy trade after the fact. What you don't see is the amount of risk if the trade does not work out. As I wrote in a previous report, price needs to either retrace to the relevant support (now 591) or push into the resistance zone which it has. Environments like this, that are trending but carry a lot of risk on larger time frames are better suited for day trading. The reason is time. If you took the breakout above the 700 level, if it faked out, since you are day trading, you can get out immediately for a small loss. If the trade works out, you capture some of the move, and then have the option to hold it longer once you have a nice cushion to play with. Working with smaller time frames, you will have more signals and conditions to consider that can provide a level of nimbleness that is not within the scope of a swing trade. With this being said, I am not looking at this market from a day trading perspective, only the swing trading perspective which means I must stick to my swing trade rules and criteria no matter how enticing a market looks. The 741 to 845 resistance zone is the .618 of the recent bearish structure. From a swing trade perspective, it is not an area to buy, it is an area to consider selling or locking in profits if you are long from lower prices. This is where the reactionary herd of buyers pile in and offer a nice liquidity spike to unload inventory into. The 764 resistance is the .382 of the entire bearish structure relative to the 1420 high. Price has not cleared it dramatically, so there is still a high probability that this market falls out of this zone. If the market does sell, the 591 support (.382 of current bullish swing) is the level to watch for the much more attractive reward/risk swing trade long. In summary, as I wrote earlier in today's S.C. report, patience is essential during times like this. Do not let your greed get the best of you. No market goes in one direction forever. It will retrace at some point, and that is when we can evaluate the next swing trade opportunity. As this market continues to unfold, we will be posting updates and signals (if the market cooperates) on S.C. only. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
28
Ethereum (ETHUSD) bullish price channel update: 4hr tfMy previous post on the bull channel for Ethereum (ETHUSD) can be found here. It was mentioned in the previous post that the next target for Ethereum (ETHUSD) to indicate a continuation of its current bullish momentum was ~ $737.36 and $763.47. Besides, Ethereum (ETHUSD) also reached Support 1 (~ 627.68 and $597.18 ) mentioned in the previous post before resuming the current bullish leg that has seen Ethereum (ETHUSD) advance towards $800. Due to price action breaking the previous trendline and reaching support 1 mentioned in the previous post, the channel boundaries have been redrawn again to reflect a valid bullish price channel for Ethereum (ETHUSD). The new target for Ethereum (ETHUSD) therefore is the upper region of the channel, which is ~ $818.71 and $839.68. Any retracement from the upper region of the channel would likely reach the bottom of the channel at ~$712.98 as indicated by the downward red arrow. A break below the bottom of the channel should find support A between ~$674.52 and $646.24. A lower support (i.e. support B between $623.62 and $597.60) on a break below support A is another region that Ethereum could possibly target on a break below its channel. A breakout above the upper line of the channel should be followed by a consolidation in the price of Ethereum (ETHUSD) before going long and/or adding to already established long positions. This ensures avoiding a possible fakeout breakout.
BITFINEX:ETHUSDLong
by Coin_Analyst
ETHUSD: Mixed Price Action Unfit For Long Signal.ETHUSD update: Pin bar forms in an attempt to break the primary bullish trend line. This candle stick pattern is usually a key requirement for a buy signal, but not the only requirement. This price action is tempting as a long signal, but the location makes it more risky than its worth. At S.C. we apply rules based trading techniques to call our trades. The first rule is that price needs to be at a predetermined level (support or resistance). At the moment, price is fluctuating between the 575 support area (.382 of recent bullish swing) and the 741 to 845 resistance zone (.618 of recent bearish structure). In order to go long, price needs to be gyrating around the 575 area and then establishing a bullish pin bar. The 575 area also happens to be where the secondary trend line is located as well which adds to the bullish argument. Or price needs to be testing the 493 to 434 support zone (.618 of current bullish swing) in order for a long signal to meet the criteria for taking risk. Just like in BTC, there is nothing attractive or special about the current price area which means price action is more likely to behave randomly here. Situations like the one visible on the chart, are what lure traders who are driven by greed and focused on money into the market. They focus more on the potential profit rather than the probability of generating that profit consistently over time. Remember even when everything lines up perfectly, the trade can still fail. So imagine the performance over time of trades that are taken for no reason. The performance is completely random minus your costs. In summary, either price pulls back further and retests the 575 level, or it pushes higher from here and retests a broad resistance zone. Momentum favors the push to resistance, but what kind of risk must you face at current levels? Would you be okay with taking a swing trade now, and then watch it pull back 100 points all while hoping it recovers? That is not the kind of trade that we would call whether it works out or not. Controlling risk is our primary concern, especially when sharing signals with the community. Forcing a trade is one of the more expensive bad habits that newer traders must shake as soon as possible. At S.C. we don't force trades, we wait until market variables line up so that we have a much better chance of coming out ahead consistently and avoiding low quality setups that randomly yield profits. The value is not in the profit, it is in the repetition. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:ETHUSD
by MarcPMarkets
19
HOW IS BTC GOING TO FALL ? THIS IS HOW IT'S GOING TO BE -UPDATEHi Trading Viewers, A few days ago, I posted a similar projection, but it wasn't quite perfect. So, I am updating it here. How to Spot a bear wave ? How to spot the beginning of a Bull wave ? It is probably the hardest job on trading. It means to find the very bottom of the price, before it goes up for a long run. Panic or Excitement are common, and shake the market. Most traders already felt that market is heating up, but to know the best price to enter before the bullish momentum really comes is something difficult. Now, bulls are trying really hard to get the price up, but they cannot pull price through MA 100, this is a wall. RED ARROW DOWN should be the start of the fall on daily chart. For more information check the related charts below. Feel free to: comment, suggest better ideas, ask questions inbox, help me improve, post a better chart on the comment, and GIVE A LIKE or FOLLOW. GOOD LUCK. GOOD PROFIT.
Short
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
95
BTCUSD: Bullish Price Action But Unattractive Location?BTCUSD update: Price is fluctuating within a reversal zone defined by the 9861 boundary level. The fact that price does not reject this level quickly can be interpreted as a sign of strength but being in an unattractive location along with no trade signal prevents us from issuing a buy signal. Even if price appears to by going higher. Price is still fluctuating above the bullish trend line but alone, that is not a reason to justify taking a risk. The purpose of a trade setup is to provide a visual representation of a market condition that offers a specific and repetitive advantage. Setups help to filter out randomness in our trading performance and also help prevent the typical reactionary trade that is so common to the market herd. And right now in this market, there is no setup. As I have written before, reactive trading that results in a profit is nothing more than reinforcement of ineffective behavior. That same trade over a large number of repetitions will result in an overall loss in the long run. That is why even if this market goes higher from this point, it is a losing proposition because of the potential future losses that will result from this ineffective behavior or bad habit that you will be reinforcing. 8514 which is the .382 of the recent bullish structure is the nearest level that we are waiting for in order to go long again. Price has to produce a reversal pattern there, otherwise again there will be no reason to take risk. In summary, until 9861 is taken out and a new higher low formation is established, this market does not offer any attractive opportunities in terms of reward/risk at the moment. Being in a reversal zone increases the chances that this market will pullback even though that often happens much faster at levels such as these. Don't let greed drive you into reactive trading even if the market goes higher without you. You may turn a profit this time, but the next 8 times you attempt to trade a similar situation, you will give back your profit and then some. Opportunities in financial markets are infinite, while your capital is not. Missing a market move is only emotionally painful, as long as you let your emotions drive your decisions. Know your levels, know your setup and wait, that alone will put you in a more advantageous position over the herd in the long run. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
32
BTCUSD: Retracing Into Resistance Makes Longs Less Attractive?BTCUSD update: Price is sitting at the old support/new resistance level of 9225 after an attempt to retrace higher. Even though price is still above the bullish trend line, it is not the best scenario for a swing trade long because there is no clearly defined setup. Setups are important because not only do they indicate an increased probability of a particular outcome, but they also clearly define risk. In the current situation, there is no meaningful setup even though it is possible to define a level of risk. 8652 is the newly printed swing low that the bullish trend line has shifted to, but the bullish candle off of this level is nothing more than a random candle. This condition does not mean a long trade will not work, the problem is there is no distinct advantage. The whole point of using particular trading criteria is to help filter out randomness. The structure in place right now can go either way but has a slight bias to the bullish side since it is above the higher sloping trend line. For us to issue a trade signal, it has to have a higher probability of following through the way we anticipate, and that is why we wait for particular setups, not random formations. Even though price may push higher (with no particular setup) it is going back into a reversal zone that is defined by the 9861 high. This is an area that is attractive for selling, not buying in general (there are exceptions, like our recent long signal, but that comes with a very well defined setup). Longs in this area particularly carry more risk for this reason. The level that I am waiting for is the 8514 support (.382 of recent bullish swing). This is below the trend line, but still within an acceptable location for trend continuation to occur. IF price can retrace back to this area and show a reversal pattern, that is the higher probability area of a swing trade long at this point. In summary, bullish momentum is clearly in control. A higher high is likely, but risk remains high at this level, especially with no setup. If anything, this price action offers a light profit taking opportunity for those traders who didn't reduce their risk the first time price pushed into this area. Let the market find a level that offers more in terms of probability and reward/risk. Random price action offers no distinct advantage which often reinforces ineffective behavior over the long run when the outcome of a trade happens to be positive. Profitable trades for the wrong reasons lead to bad habits which is one of the reasons why it is so difficult to achieve consistency as a short term trader. Be patient, and let the market meet your criteria rather than react to the perceived possibility of a profit. Check out our performance spread sheet at S.C. to see the most recent trade that reached our predetermined target during the peak of this recent move. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
21
S&P500: Avoid The Middle And Wait For These Levels.S&P500 update: This market is consolidating as evidenced by the converging trend lines on this chart. Price is gyrating inside the middle of the range which means this is the lowest probability area to put on a swing trade long or short. The 2652 level is the .382 of the recent bullish structure, it also represents the middle of the range at the moment. There is no advantage to trading the middle since price action is most random here. There was a pin bar, tweezer bottom candle combination off of the 2615 support level which served as a long trigger, but because of the location, this is a low probability scenario for a swing trade long. On the other hand, for day trading or scalping purposes, this trigger offered plenty of opportunity since profits are generally taken quickly when employing such short term strategies. The next most attractive level for a swing trade long is the mid to low 2590s. Not only is this within the 2615 to 2587 support zone (.618 of recent bullish structure), it is also within a minor reversal zone boundary. That is where we want to see bullish reversal patterns that offer well defined risk levels. Keep in mind, if price continues higher from current levels, and breaks the 2690s, a retest of the 2710 to 2751 (.618 of recent bearish structure) would be more likely and that is the area to consider for swing trade or day trade shorts. You do not have to trade the S&P futures outright in order to capitalize on this information. At S,C, we use the S&P to help time stock and options trades, since it serves as a gauge for the broader markets. Make sure to check out our stock and option performance page if you are a more advanced investor.
CME_MINI:ES1!
by MarcPMarkets
2
BTC - Where is the Bottom ?? Buy Signal.To spot the very beginning of a new wave, is probably the hardest job on trading. It means to find the very bottom of the price, before it goes up for good. Because, when it is close to happen, market gets fast trades and moves. Panic or Excitement are common, and shake the market. This is the first time the Moving Water is trying o catch it. Most traders already felt that market is heating up, but to know the best price to enter before the bullish momentum really comes is something difficult. So far The MOVING WATER HAS 98% ACCURACY. Let's hope it keeps rocking the Bots. For more information check the related charts below. GOOD LUCK. GOOD PROFIT.
Long
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
33
GBPUSD: Good Level For Reversal? Candles Need To Agree.GBPUSD update: Price has pushed below the bullish trend line and has tested the 1.3965 previous low. It went as low as 1.3918 which is not far from the 1.3883 reversal zone boundary. This is an area that I am watching for swing trade longs. Even though you can make an argument that the current price is within the middle of a very broad range, the fact that there is a reversal zone boundary nearby carries more weight. Understanding context is what allows me to see the greater chance of a bullish retrace in this area. Any retest of the low 1.3900s or 1.3880 area is the prime area to watch for reversal signals such as a bullish pin bar, or engulfing pattern, etc. The nearest resistance serves as a reasonable swing trade target. 1.4095 is the .382 of the current bearish swing and offers an adequate target if a long signal is taken. Keep in mind, a trade setup is not complete unless a trigger and stop are defined and at this point neither are clear. If price continues through the reversal zone boundary, I would avoid any swing trade longs until stability returns to this market. Remember the bigger picture (Elliott Wave chart is on S.C.) implies weakness which means long trades offer less potential in my opinion. More detailed analysis to follow in the analysis area of S.C.
by MarcPMarkets
1
BTCUSD: Continuation Pattern Forming. Is The Trigger Worth It?BTCUSD update: Price is poised to make a higher high and possibly break the 9225 old support/new resistance level which can lead price up to the 9861 reversal zone boundary. Along with this possibility, an aggressive swing trade setup is developing as I write this. Is the trigger worth entering? In recent reports, I have been writing about how not all signals are equal and how buying supports is more effective than buying highs in strong markets. There are exceptions, and usually they are based on how well defined the setup is, what kind of obstacles the trade is facing, and how clear the momentum is. In other words, context strongly defines whether or not it is worth taking the risk, in conjunction with how aggressive you choose to be. In this case, there is an inside bar that has appeared, supported by a previous higher low formation and clearly positive sloping trend line. Chances are a break out from this inside bar will lead price to the 9225 level which is a historical level that has affected price previously (see chart). Since buyers are in control, it is not unreasonable to expect an attempt toward the 9861 level which is the reversal zone boundary relative to the 9225 high. If the bullish trend line stays intact, and price breaks the 9048 trigger, you can risk about 300 points to potentially make 600 to 700 points based on a conservative target. The reward/risk is attractive and the current price structure (mini consolidation) is typically a trend continuation pattern. What makes this trade setup riskier is the fact that price has not retraced to a reasonable support (which doesn't always happen in strong markets). That is the aggressive trade idea while the more conservative idea is to wait for a retrace back to the 8108 level which is the .382 of the current bullish structure. The immediate trend line would be compromised, but as long as price maintains this level and establishes a reversal pattern off of it, often the next move is at least a retest of the previous high. It is more conservative because you are buying at a more attractive price along with a higher probability of retesting a predetermined level (previous peak). In summary. buying near resistance levels is often a bad idea but occasionally there are exceptions. Experience and understanding context along with your capacity to undertake the associated risk determine if this type of setup fits into your trading plan. A shallow retrace such as this are common in strong market environments and can offer a structured way to participate even at less attractive levels. Make sure to check out our regular updates on S.C. about this potential swing trade and how we decide to participate if it triggers a long. Questions and comments welcome.
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
13
HOW PRICE MOVES ON THE MARKET ?? Why Up or Down ??1. Bid (Demand) X Offer (Availability) The bid price is the highest publicized price a buyer is posting an order to buy at. The offer price is the lowest advertised price a seller is posting an order to sell at. 2. A trader can choose to buy at the ask price, or sell to the bid price. This will create an instant transaction. 3. A trader may also choose to put out a bid or offer at any price they desire, but there is no guarantee another trader will transact with that order. 4. Assume someone is selling 1 BTC at $19.999. If someone buys it, it will no longer be available. The next offer may be to sell 1 BTC at $20.100. If someone buys, or the seller cancels their order, then that order disappears and the offer price moves to the next available price someone is selling at, let's say $20.150. 5. If the buying was big enough to remove all BTC offers up to $20.150, then price moves up. 6. The same thing happens on the bid. Transactions may occur at a furious pace. People are biding and offering at different prices, in different quantities, and they can cancel or change those orders at any time causing the bid and ask to change. Other traders may not post bid or offers, but rather simply transacting at the bids and offers currently available. 7. When transactions occur at the offer, this is called buy volume, and when transactions occur at the bid this is called sell volume. When a sell order comes into the market that is bigger than the number shares available at the current bid, then the bid price will drop, because all those shares at the current bid are absorbed by the selling. When a buy order comes into the market that is bigger than the number of shares available at the current offer, then offer price will move up, because all those shares at the current offer are absorbed by the buying. 8. Price can move quickly or slowly depending on how aggressive the buyers and sellers are. The price can move very quickly is someone puts out a big market buy/sell order. GOOD LUCK. GOOD PROFIT.
by EDWARDCASHTRADER
5
BTCUSD: Great Setup, Not So Great Location.BTCUSD Update: A higher low formation appeared off of the 7823 low and price took out the 8185 high during the previous candle, but we did not issue a trade signal. Why? This price action is occurring within a resistance zone which increases the risk for initiating long swing trades significantly. It took me quite a few years to figure out that not all signals are created equal. Context offers a way to gauge the likelihood of the expected outcome and this has nothing to do with complicated formulas. It is all about having a way to organize market information and compare unfolding ideas to best practices, or specific criteria to justify risk. Our criteria is very well defined and this is what acts as a signal filter. Higher risk trade ideas, even though they produce profitable trades at times, are not consistent enough in the long run. Consistency over the long run is a defining factor when it comes to professional speculation. Best practices dictate that buying into a resistance is generally a bad idea and that is exactly where this buy trigger has appeared. I wrote about this specifically when I updated the BTC analysis on S.C. yesterday. The 8091 to 8543 resistance zone is the .618 area relative to the recent bearish structure. Buying in this zone carries more risk on this particular time frame when it comes to evaluating a potential swing trade long. The more attractive location for this setup is the 7553 level (.382 of recent bullish swing) because of it's proportion to the current price structure and because it is where the recently established bullish trend line is located. This support level is a much better place for a buy signal to appear in terms of reward/risk and expected outcome. The problem is the market may or may NOT retest this level. Waiting for a setup to occur at this level or having the patience to not react if the market continues higher from the current level is what separates the rational traders from the herd. The herd reacts to anything because it is driven by greed. The rational trader wants to make money too, but waits until conditions are most favorable and is willing to forfeit market moves that promote bad habits and reduce consistency over the long run. Just like a fisherman anchors his boat in a "good spot" and waits for the fish to find him, he does not chase after the fish. In summary, this market is showing an attractive structure that implies further strength, but what is not immediately apparent is the risk. There is no particular advantage in a situation like this and the outcome is more random. As price action traders, we do not want random because it does not lead to consistency in the long run. So even if this trade setup produces a favorable outcome, we know that if you take this same trade 100 times, the majority of the time you will lose. If this bullish setup does not get through the resistance zone, it will more than likely drift lower into the support level that is more in line with our swing trade plan. At S.C., we prefer quality over quantity and have no problem watching higher risk setups move without us. Referring back to the fishing analogy, you cannot control the fish, but you can control the action you take to increase the chances of catching one and trading works the same way. This is one of those situations. Questions and comments welcome (We post more technical versions of these details on S.C. first. Make sure to check updates there).
BITFINEX:BTCUSD
by MarcPMarkets
21