GBPAUD Short possibilityTimeframe: 4H
Expecting uptrend due to Three Outside Up Bullish Reversal and Engulfing Bullish during last session.
Corrective Fall expected.
Resistance @ 1.6331, 1.6422, 1.6494
Support @ 1.6168, 1.6096, 1.6005
Choose Entry Point within rules/strategies accordance
Previous session:
H = 1.6361
L = 1.6174
O = 1.6305
C = 1.6237
Pivot Point = 1.6257
Personal analysis only. Please use your own rules and strategies prior to entering market.
Bullishreversal
Short-Term Upside For Retail?The SPDR fund tracking S&P Retail has been trending up for years. Lately the industry and fund have been on some rocky footing. Currently the fund is at a potential key support level with value to the upside. The projected future movements are highlighted below based on technical indicators.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 36.0704. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The RSI has established two upward trending levels of support. Currently the RSI just bounced off of one of these lines. The last three times this occurred since this RSI support trend began resulted in quick gains of 5.36%, 7.83%, and 9.60%. This is the first indicator this fund could turn bullish.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently 4.0070. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The TSI has also been trending up since the beginning of 2016. Although the current TSI level is not near this supporting trendline, the delay in the indicator could be the reason. It is important to note the TSI has come down from its most recent peak and its current position normally occurs as the fund is sliding downward. This indicator may be telling us the downward movement may continue for a little bit longer before the fund progresses upward.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.6967 and the negative is at 1.1494. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. Even though both indicators are unfavorable to bullish movement, they have both begun to reverse course. This reversal does require more movement to favor new bullish movement for the fund. If this movement occurs within the next 3 days, the fund should begin moving upward.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 4.0425 and D value is 11.0491. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the stock is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value the stock is trending down. This indicator is clearly in oversold territory. Previous oversold levels for this indicator during the fund's upward trend have always lead to a reversal. This is another strong indicator the fund will move upward.
Considering the RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction favors a move to the upside, although definitive upward movement may take a few more days to develop. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position, the fund could gain at least 4% over the next 27 trading days if not sooner.
Short-Term Bullish Cross For VeriFoneOn April 20, 2017, VeriFone Systems ( PAY ) crossed above its 150 daily moving average (DMA). Historically this has occurred 49 times and the stock does not always move up. It has a median gain of 4.104% and maximum gain of 33.911% over the next 10 trading days.
When we take a look at other technical indicators, the relative strength index (RSI) is at 43.0767. RSI tends to determine trends, overbought and oversold levels as well as likelihood of price swings. I personally use anything above 75 as overbought and anything under 25 as oversold. The current reading declares the stock is becoming neutral, but recently moved up and away from oversold territory.
The true strength index (TSI) is currently -24.5922. The TSI determines overbought/oversold levels and/or current trend. I solely use this as an indicator of trend as overbought and oversold levels vary. The TSI is double smoothed in its calculation and is a great indicator of upward and downward movement. The current reading declares the stock is moving down.
The positive vortex indicator (VI) is at 0.6864 while the negative is at 1.2745. When the positive level is higher than 1 and higher than the negative indicator, the overall price action is moving upward. When the negative level is higher than 1 and higher than the positive indicator, the overall price action is moving downward. The current reading declares the stock has been moving down. Its upward reversal is overdue and may actually have started.
The stochastic oscillator K value is 25.3573 and D value is 13.3096. This is a cyclical oscillator that is highly accurate and can be used to identify overbought/oversold levels as well as pending reversals and short-term activity. I personally use anything above 80 as overbought and below 20 as oversold. When the K value is higher than the D value, the price action is trending up. When the D value is higher that the K value, price action is trending down. The current reading declares the stock is on the verge is moving up and out of oversold territory.
Considering the moving average crossover, RSI, TSI, VI and stochastic levels, the overall direction appears to have just begun a reversal to the higher side. Based on historical movement compared to current levels and the current position in its trend channel, the stock could gain at least 1.24% over the next 6 trading days.
USDCAD (L) 2016.12.01Looking to catch bullish reversal. Upward trend on 1 day chart, but currently in a pullback and bouncing off support. 15 min chart has broken through 20 SMA and PSAR, entry of 1.332 will break through 50 SMA and CCI should be hitting 100+. Half position entry since a reversal isn't guaranteed, 2nd position will be at 133.40 just above 2nd point of resistance on 15min chart.
USDCAD (L) 2016.12.01Looking to catch bullish reversal. Upward trend on 1 day chart, but currently in a pullback and bouncing off support. 15 min chart has broken through 20 SMA and PSAR, entry of 1.332 will break through 50 SMA and CCI should be hitting 100+. Half position entry since a reversal isn't guaranteed, 2nd position will be at 133.40 just above 2nd point of resistance on 15min chart.
USDCHF Hammers Out of Support ZoneUSD bears became disheartened Thursday, when the Swissy surged out of a daily support zone, moments after falling to new lows. Pair remains wedge bound, but yesterday's Hammer reversal and developing Inverse Head and Shoulders pattern bolster the case for a break higher. Bulls will be looking to push the pair toward the inverse neck zone between .9810 & .9845. A daily close below Wednesday's open at .9694 would invalidate.
#UNICREDIT - NEXT EUROPEAN BANK WITH A BREAKOUTUnicredit is the next European Bank to stage an impressive base breakout. EU Banks are at a turning point, outperforming, and have a lot of catch-up to do. Technicals look great. Unicredit appears to move into a vacuum and I see immediate upside into 2.75/.77
I'm a chart analyst, not a fundamental analyst, but here are a few thoughts what could drive EU Banks outperformance. Fundamentals continue to look awful, however there are a few tailwinds from:
- bank CEO acknowledging structural weaknesses (DBK CEO y'day)
- serious consolidation talks
- FED rate hikes