$SPX Fractal IdeaI've been watching this 2023 fractal play out very similarly since Summer '24.
It would mean a drop around 5,500 by late March/early April before continuation of the uptrend into late 2025.
Bullmarket2025
Bitcoin TA Alert: Perfect $97K Long Setup Incoming?Bitcoin remains range-bound between $107K and $100K as we approach the weekend. Let’s break down the current key levels and trade setups based on the data available.
Support and Long Setup
The GETTEX:97K level emerges as a strong support zone for a long trade setup:
0.618 Fibonacci retracement from the recent swing low to high aligns perfectly at GETTEX:97K
The POC (Point of Control) from the 70-day trading range also sits at this level, adding confluence
If the price reaches GETTEX:97K by Sunday or Monday, the trendline support will further strengthen this zone
A laddered long position can be placed around GETTEX:97K , with:
Stop-loss: Below $93K
Take Profit: around $113K
Risk-to-Reward (R:R): 4:1 - an attractive trade setup
Resistance and Short Setup
For the short trade setup, the current price around $106K offers an opportunity:
Enter a short trade targeting the GETTEX:97K level
Stop-loss: Above the all-time high (ATH) at $107K
Take Profit (TP): GETTEX:97K
R:R: 2:1 - reasonable given the tight risk management
$ETH Bull Market StrategyThis is my operating idea for this bull run.
CRYPTOCAP:ETH claims new ATH in Dec-Jan, and posts blow-off top in early Spring '25 (Apr-May). Peak somewhere between $7K and $10K...higher is possible up to $19.5K, but not likely. It really depends how high CRYPTOCAP:BTC goes (my range assumes $130K BTC).
I expect CRYPTOCAP:ETH to bottom at prior S/R of $1.9K in the bear market, sometime in 1H'26.
a lifetime logarithmic cycle in quartersthe quarterly chart in logarithmic price shows the cyclical arrangement of bull market breaks to new all time highs on the curve. the current bull market has the typical shape of each other breakout in the time cycles along a logarithmic pattern. shown are the logarithmic trend max and channel. this indicates a move inside the curve. during these periods btcusd tends to gain 80% over 3-6 months. im remaining buy sided btcusd for the foreseeable future targeting $124k by april 2025, stop loss as low as $59k.
a two year bull market. what has changed?its been 756 days since the bottom in the s&p500. the weekly is on an extended bull run to the 6000 region. last week has been the biggest drop in volatility in this trend.
large risk on weeks come with pullbacks, but this week hasnt bearishly diverged from the trend yet.
fib time zone tells us the trend hasnt reached a local maximum yet. the general trend hasnt changed since monday may 15 2023.
since signal hasnt changed i wouldnt try to short this market yet.
a breach of this dopen would probably lead to a pullback around pmVAH, and i would look to do this by ftz 13. still a local bear move toward the 5800 region isnt unthinkable.
i would still rely on this broader market move setting higher weekly lows and vreaking to new all time highs for the foreseeable future, which is why im leaning long here, even with the advanced age of this bull market (even post election).
