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BTC Outlook 2023 - 2027BTC Outlook 2023-2027 (Revised) I think its almost confirmed with high confidence that this rally is bear market rally, not a rally of a new cycle that ends the BTC bear market. 25k is already its highest peak, it will going sideway for a while before resuming the drawdown to a lower level. Q1 2023 is one month left before it ends. This rally is the corrective move of wave 4 of the 4th cycle ABC move. After we have the truncated bull market of 2021, now we also have a truncated bear market. Its a textbook Elliot Wave cycle but its just not the ideal one. But it is the ideal one to model the current cycle. We can see that the peak of the current rally has touch multiple important moving averages. That's it, the unbreakable wall of the rally. Next move we will see again another massive drawdown, the wave 5, the last wave of the ABC move. My prediction is that BTC will be asking for a major support between 12-14k liquidity area, touching 1M 100 SMA and 50% of Fibonacci retracement level, and surely a weekly bullish divergence will be formed, and that would be the best time to buy before a new cycle started. Approximately the bottom will be formed around Q2-Q3 of 2023, but I think Q3 is preferable considering the macroeconomic condition. The identification of almost-confirmed-with-high-confidence wave 4 of ABC move also stating that the current cycle has been going a time period of more than 4 years tradition and still counting due to a longer bear market. The first time that BTC breaking this tradition after going 3 Elliot Wave cycles and 3 halvings. For the next cycle, we will have the first wave peaking between 32-37k, the 3rd wave peaking at around 2021 ATH and for the 5th wave, the blow off top will be around 130-170k. Let see if this post will age really well in the coming years.
INDEX:BTCUSD
by derahmanov
Bitcoin hourly analysis 1/16Hello everyone I'm going to start sharing my crypto analysis because people keep calling me a larp and a scammer when I try to share my opinions in this god awful chatroom so here we go. Some things to know: BTC has had one of its largest 1 week green candles to date relative to current price bringing us up into the 21k range. This is a very popular and closely watched zone by many crypto investors, widely considered to be a key level in bull market sentiment if not levels like 24k for example. BTC has made it up to 'pre FTX crash levels', also SBF does not have his trial until October. Now onto the chart itself, BTC has been in this range for over 48 hours now and has been ranging with strong reactions around 20675 and 21000, Throughout this we have failed to confirm such as a bull flag and pennant but continues to follow trend with very strong bounces. Will all this being said I continue to hold a bullish sentiment throughout this tight range until we have a candle close below trend on 1h and 4h. If so I think its safe to assume micro bearish with a likely pullback to 18.5k as rejecting from here will keep us in the 21k-18.5k range which can be clearly seen on daily charts. As of now I am out of all long positions and will look for an entry with confirmed range breakout. Not financial advice just reasoning behind my sentiment, thanks.
Long
by MilkLover69
Potential start of the bull marketFOREXCOM:SPXUSD As of 01/16/2023, I believe the birth, or first sign of a potential return to bull market to be today. In the process of reviewing ema, macd, and cycle based indicators, we should see uptrend begin to take off leading back into 4300 by February '23. This can all change with fed's taming of inflation, or any external circumstance. But if trajectory remains strong, we should have a confirmed uptrend by start of this February. Refer to the 2 weekly chart, as this is the core of my thesis for the return to bull market.
FOREXCOM:SPX500Long
by JuanLagos94
2
1871-2022 S&P 500 Secular Bull vs. Bear Markets SPX SPY I wanted to share this chart, as a couple of things stood out when thinking about past bull & bear secular market cycles vs. the current secular bull market that we’ve been in for the last 10+ years since the 08-09’ GFC (Great Financial Crisis). First , for those who say “investors can't or shouldn’t time the markets", I very much disagree with this logic (or Wall Street marketing) as there are plenty of signals, cyclical trends, leading indicators, etc., that give investors clues as to what likely lies ahead — based on probabilities. And while nobody can be 100% certain as to the exact pathway of markets, given the macro cross-currents that are in front of us — we can 100% say that we have been & still are in a secular bull market. Until this trend changes, the “crash” that many were calling for in 22’, if not expecting for 23’ could possibly take longer to play out than many realize when looking at previous bull vs. bear secular market cycles. Second , looking at the attached chart(s), this is also why timing and duration matter. If you are entering retirement toward the latter part of a secular bull market, it might be best to reduce risk & shift from capital appreciation to capital preservation. Examples of this include leading up The Great Depression, 1950’s post-WWII boom prior to the 1970’s Stagflation Era, & into the end of the Tech Boom of the .com era leading into 2001. On the flip side, if you are in your saving years (20’s-30’s+), then it is during these secular bear markets that you really want to be accumulating & building your asset base for the next bull market phase that is likely ahead in the coming years as the trend higher always begins during the bear market bottoming process (see dotted black lines on charts). Third , looking at the current cycle & zooming in on the charts from yearly (large picture) to monthly chart — we can see that we are still technically in a secular bull market. And considering the previous two major bull market cycles of the 1950/60’s (18 years) & 1980’s up until the early 2000’s (19 years), one could make a case that we are only about halfway through this current bull cycle (9 years). Do I think this is absolutely the case? Personally , I do not as there are issues regarding demographics, de-globalization, inflation/stagflation/deflation, boomers retiring en-masse, etc., that will likely put further pressure on asset markets throughout this decade. What do you think about this historical analysis? Are we going to break this secular bull market cycle & enter a secular new bear market? Or, are are just in a corrective phase within the broader bull market cycle? CHART NOTE: Recessions = Shaded Red Areas Chart #1 (Yearly): *1871-2022* 📊 *Inflation Adjusted Returns Chart Data via Advisor Perspectives* www.advisorperspectives.com Since that first trough in 1877 to the March 2009 low: Secular bull gains totaled 2075% for an average of 415%. Secular bear losses totaled -329% for an average of -65%. Secular bull years total 80 versus 52 for the bears, a 60:40 ratio. Chart #2 (Yearly): *1871-2022* 📊 *Inflation Adjusted Secular Highs & Lows via Advisor Perspectives* www.advisorperspectives.com Chart #3 (Yearly): *1871-2022* 📊 *Inflation Adjusted Regression to Trend via Advisor Perspectives* www.advisorperspectives.com Chart #4 (Yearly): *1871-2022* 📊 *Inflation Adjusted Regression Channel via Advisor Perspectives* www.advisorperspectives.com Chart #5 (Monthly): *1920-1972* (Great Depression & Post-WWII) 📊 *Note that during the Great Depression/WWII, as Ray Dalio has pointed out in his recent book "The Changing World Order" this was a prolonged period of negative to very low returns.* 📖 www.economicprinciples.org Chart #6 (Monthly): *1972-2022* (70’s Stagflation, 80’s "Greed is Good" markets & 90’s dot.com Boom, 08’ GFC, & 2010’s QE 1/2/3, 20’ Covid Crash, & 21-22’ Inflation/Interest Rate Shock Correction) 📊 *Note that we are still in a secular bull market uptrend, when looking at the monthly charts. Until this trend breaks down, there is market support for a continuation of this trend.* Pre-Covid High = Red Dotted Line ($3,393.52) Post-Covid High = Green Dotted Line ($4,816.62) Chart #6 (Monthly): *1871-2022* (MACD) 📊
SP:SPX
by kylemusserco
3
Bitcoin past & futureI discovered some major periods. Mark this: 371 day and 553 days. Plusminus couple days or weeks. When was the first halving, we have got new significant peak after 371 day, and a second peak at 553 day. It happened again in 2016-2017 and 2020-2021. The bearmarket started after halving 553 days, and it was 476 day long two times (2015,2018). There was an accumulation zone, which was 258-406 long two times. So if I count these periods, the descent slowly ends, and we jump to the accumulation zone, which will starts in March 2023. After the next halving i count a rapid rising between 100k-300k. If the history repeats itself, we will got new peak in April 2025 and October 2025. Fingers crossed.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Kopipaszta
2
That's one small step for satoshi, one giant leap for crypto (2)Math will never lie unless you can't do math. This calculation has been going on since the day we started and we so far it's perfectly correct. What I want to share with you is the following: Gold is always 1 and 9 or 4.5. Gold at a top is 9 and thus the end of a bull run. Gold at a bottom is always 1 and therefore the end of a bear run. Blue/Pink between these 2 is neutral, we continue with the trend or not. The lines between them are called noise numbers. Here you often lose the most ..trading it. The answer should be clear enough. Study the map. Kind regards, the Woelf of crypto street Whale you Later! p.s. Visit the old post for more information (link to related idea)
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Member-berrie
1
#BTC Weekly Technical Analysis.Hi guys, This is CryptoMojo, One of the most active trading view authors and fastest-growing communities. Consider following me for the latest updates and Long /Short calls on almost every exchange. I post short mid and long-term trade setups too. Let’s get to the chart! I have tried my best to bring the best possible outcome to this chart, Do not consider financial advice. #Bitcoin Long Term Technical Analysis:- In this weekly time frame, BTC is trading inside this rising expanding triangle pattern and is currently at the lower level of this pattern. Which is at 1428D long Strong support BTC must hold this level. If BTC breaks down to this level then $11k to $12k is the next stopping point. I am accumulating BTC in this range and what if BTC drop towards 11k to 12k then I will buy more, no one can catch the accurate bottom. This chart is likely to help you make better trade decisions if it does consider upvoting it. I would also love to know your charts and views in the comment section. Thank you
Long
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
7
BTC: Should hold this support!!Hi guys, This is CryptoMojo, One of the most active trading view authors and fastest-growing communities. Consider following me for the latest updates and Long /Short calls on almost every exchange. I post short mid and long-term trade setups too. Let’s get to the chart! I have tried my best to bring the best possible outcome to this chart, Do not consider financial advice. #Bitcoin Long Term Technical Analysis:- In this weekly time frame, BTC is trading inside this rising expanding triangle pattern and is currently at the lower level of this pattern. Which is at 1428D Strong support BTC must hold this level. If BTC breaks down to this level then $11k to $12k is the next stopping point. I am accumulating more and if we see more dips, I will buy more. This chart is likely to help you make better trade decisions if it does consider upvoting it. I would also love to know your charts and views in the comment section. Thank you
by CRYPTOMOJO_TA
4
What to look for during a Bear Market Correction?JS-Masterclass #4: What to look for during a Bear Market Correction? Many undisciplined traders have suffered significant losses during the current bear market correction. Professional and disciplined traders are staying on the sidelines and preserve their hard-earned capital while waiting for better times. The good news is that every bear market will eventually turn into a bull market and new opportunities will show up when only very few people expect it. Leading stocks emerge from bull markets, sometimes long before the major indices reach their lows and start a new uptrend. History shows that more than 96 % of superperformance stocks emerge from bear markets or general market corrections. Most stock market experts are aligned that the current bear market will end soon, some say it bottomed already. So what to do now? Continue to do your homework while the market is down and you will be prepared to make big profits when it turns up. Stay disciplined and look for the following: 1. Stocks hitting the 52-week high list. 2. Stocks that corrected the least amount during the market’s declining period trading within 25% of a 52-week high (the closer to a new high the better). 3. Stocks that surged in price off the market lows (the largest percentage movers). 4. Stocks that are base-building and consolidating within the context of a long-term uptrend. 5. A proliferation of stocks setting up and emerging through proper buy points out of bases. 6. Accumulation in the major averages at or around the time the leaders start breaking out.
Education
by JS_TechTrading
Simple Projection of Second Top (Hidden Bearish Trend) Simple Long-Term Prediction: Since its highest price, BTC has been in a downtrend but It is hard to label it as a bear market. I am seeing it as a reaction that brought us to the significant support level which has been seen as the last pillar of hope with an enormous amount of fear. If BTC can defeat the emotional level of 21.5k, It will give more buying opportunities to the bull runners. I believe that the real bearish market would be from the second top after the price reaches between the 30k-40k. I believe sellers lost a little bit of momentum. In addition to that, the U.S dollar index (20-year high of 114.78) is the major factor in driving the BTC price over the last few weeks which dropped below 111 points. As a result, It can boost market recovery for crypto and stock. My previous BTC analysis was for the long-term strategy which pointed out the long duration of consolidation that means highly choppy trades. To sum up; I am still on the side of my second top scenario and not Fomo bungee jumping for 100k-300k price levels. Thank you, guys!
Long
by Flowrowboat
1