15/07/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $61,431.5
Last weeks low: $54,288.74
Midpoint: $57,860.12
Last week BTC had a strong rally from the beginning of the week by printing the low in the first hour, and then closing at the weekly high at the very last hours on Sunday, a +13% climb over the 7 days.
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) results came in very positive with a better than forecast result.
CPI (YoY):
FORECAST: 3.1%
ACTUAL: 3.0%
The Producer Price Index (PPI) results came in higher than forecast.
PPI (MoM):
FORECAST: 0.1%
ACTUAL:0.2%
Despite a positive CPI and negative PPI the chart reacted in an opposite direction to how we would expect. Eventually after Friday's PPI results the MIDPOINT of the range got flipped and has been rallying ever since.
Usually a weekend pump is not something to be trusted alone, the lower volume can often paint a false picture and because of this the Monday close is very important. Should Mondays close be above the last weeks high I think this could be a catalyst for flipping the Bearish trend back to Bullish.
Another indicator of a trend change is the 4H 200 EMA which has now been broken and awaits confirmation of acceptance above, again this leads into the Mondays close being key.
Close above $61,500 = BULLISH
Bounce and reclaim of both 1D & 4H 200EMAs, set up nicely for HTF continuation of Bullrun.
Close below $61,500 = BEARISH
A swing fail of last weeks high could also imply a rejection off 4H 200EMA and continuation of the chop/ LTF downtrend.
Bullrun
BITCOIN LINE IN THE SAND BTC has lost the 1D 200 EMA for the first time this year which is a major TA trend Indicator.
On the daily timeframe we can see a clean breakthrough below on the first touch since October of last year, which initially is surprising as this level is seen as key support for keeping a bullmarket going. Now that BTC has fallen under the moving average we've seen attempts at breaking back above for the last 3 days in a row, and with FED chair Powell set to testify today and tomorrow along with CPI &PPI on Thursday and Friday respectively. It's quite a FED heavy week with can bring volatility to the market.
The ETH ETF is rumoured to begin trading next Monday (15th July) which could be the catalyst to get both BTC & ETH back above their 1D 200 EMA's. For now the general worry is that the selling pressure caused by the German Government and Mt. Gox is what is dragging price down. However, yesterday recorded a net inflow of $295m for the Bitcoin spot ETFs, the most in 21 days which suggest there are buyers looking to absorb those Bitcoins that are being offloaded.
I am still a little confused as to why the German Government have decided to market sell through an exchange instead of any OTC transactions, perhaps it's a play to shake out weak hands and make retail panic?
The FA is always complicated but I still believe that the bearish factors are more short term when compared to all the bullish more long term factors. Short term market selling vs long term supply shock caused by the halving, institutional investors and ETFs buying, US election and rate cuts.
CPI & PPI can be volatile news events for the market, I think it could be one of these events that could be a catalyst to reclaim the 1D 200 EMA, we've seen a full reset of the RSI since the rally of earlier this year. Historically these are all good long term entry criteria.
XAU/USD Longs from 2,380 back up (ATH Soon)My gold bias for this week is bullish. After observing a reaction off the 22-hour supply zone, I expect a further drop to complete a retracement to a nearby demand zone, likely the 16-hour or smaller zones below it.
Given my bullish outlook, I will be looking for buy opportunities. Once price reaches my demand level, I will wait for lower time frame confirmation to take it back up, potentially to the old all-time highs (ATH) or even higher.
Confluences for GOLD Buys are as follows:
- Price has broken structure to the upside and left a 16-hour demand zone.
- Price is near the old ATHs, which is a major liquidity point.
- The overall and current trend for gold is very bullish.
- The DXY is looking bearish, supporting the gold buy ideas.
P.S. If the price continues to rise without a retracement, I will wait for further price action to determine if I can sell down to a demand zone.
BITCOIN VS ALTCOINS Since the beginning of 2023 BITCOIN has been on a relentless upward trajectory. As the highest market cap cryptocurrency it often sets the tone for the entire market. When Bitcoin goes up it tends to drag the rest of the market up with it and the same when Bitcoin falls is the general rule of thumb.
This post is to showcase the difference between Bitcoins market cap (TOTAL) Vs the Altcoin market cap which excludes Bitcoin and Ethereum (TOTAL3) . As the market leader Bitcoin is often the first mover and that can be seen in the chart on the left, we have at first glass a mirror image on the TOTAL3 chart on the right but with a few key differences:
- When Bitcoin fell from its ATH in November, price found it's bottom at the previous cycles ATH as seen by the blue horizontal ray. Whereas the altcoin market continued to drop below its previous ATH by another 19.67% . It's an important difference because it shows that altcoins are worse off in a bear market when compared to Bitcoin, and they start from further back once the Bullrun arrives.
- We can see that both charts are very similar, the next biggest difference is clearly the progression made in this Bullrun so far. Bitcoin has already moved past its "right shoulder" of the head and shoulders price pattern, TOTAL3 however is still some ways off that mark, the chart shows altcoins have a 38% gap between current level and the top of that "right shoulder" .
The reason for the gap in the race can be explained the same way each cycle because they're exactly the same patterns each cycle. Bitcoin is the first mover as it is the biggest by market cap, the same cycle of capital injection happens each and every time:
BITCOIN ----> LARGE CAPS ----> MID CAPS ----> SMALL CAPS
Profits get rotated into the next more risky investment over and over until the blow off top and retail are left holding their positions all the way down. This will most likely still be the case this cycle however there is a new player on the field...
BTC ETF's...
This is new and exclusive to this cycle and I believe this will partly change the dynamic of the cycle when compared to years gone by. With over $10 BILLION DOLLARS of net inflows into BTC the institutional buyers are now here in a much bigger way than ever before, how will this disrupt the money flow? It could prevent profits from rotating somewhat into the large caps, but not completely. Naturally the ETF providers will have a large stake in the holding of BITCOIN and are going to be less inclined to sell when the cycle looks to near its end as they are still providing the service to their customers. Having less sellside pressure will help BTC hold its value.
The altcoins may get the negative side of this as less profits in theory will rotate into smaller cap coins and result in a smaller 'Altseason" . This is the cost of institutional adoption. There is always the possibility of altcoin ETF's but that is another discussion. For now I can see altcoins playing catch up later this year and going into 2025.
ADA Bull Run Insights: Historical Patterns and Future ProjectionIn this detailed analysis of Cardano (ADAUSD), we examine the current support level at $0.333, which is proving to be a significant point for potential gains. Should this support hold, ADA could see a substantial increase. However, if it breaks, the next strong support is around $0.24, where a bounce is highly anticipated due to upcoming positive events and the nearing approval of Ethereum ETFs. These events could trigger a rally in altcoins, likely to be observed in Q4 2024. Historically, bull runs have been characterized by high volatility and substantial price rises, which we expect to see again.
For the upcoming bull run, Cardano's target is projected to be at least $7, based on historical performance and calculations. If ADA flips the $7 resistance by February 2025, we could see a maximum target of $9.11. Cardano, listed during the September 2017 alt season, yielded a 7322% return and an impressive 15556% return during the 2021 bull run. For 2025, we are anticipating a return of approximately 3750%. ADA is currently forming an uptrend with its maximum resistance projected at $9.11. Historically, bull markets have seen unexpected price pumps, and we can expect similar volatility this time. It is crucial to monitor S&R zones to keep trades active and plan to exit long positions around March or August 2025.
For more detailed analysis and future trading ideas, follow us on TradingView. Share this idea with your friends and family to maximize profits. Please like, comment, and engage with our posts for more insights. Thanks!
Analyzing NMR Bullish Symmetrical Pattern: Breakout ForecastThe NMRUSD pair holds strong support at $11.80, presenting significant potential for a bullish move. If this support level holds, we can expect a notable gain. However, if this support breaks, the next strong support is at $10.66, where a bounce is anticipated due to the proximity of a bull run and the nearing approval of the ETH ETF. We can expect market bullishness in Q4 2024, accompanied by high volatility and substantial rises typical of bull runs.
Anticipated Bull Run Targets:
Based on historical data and calculations, NMRUSD's minimum target during the bull run is projected at $360. If it can flip the $360 resistance by February 2025, we might see a maximum target of $1000. NMRUSD, listed in 2017, has formed a symmetrical triangle pattern expected to break out during the 2025 bull run. Historically, prices have shown unexpected pumps during bull markets, and similar volatility is expected this time.
Strategic Long Position Management:
Considering the resistance zones and the potential pattern breakout, it is crucial to maintain active trades while monitoring these levels. Plan to exit long positions around March or November 2025, as the bull run is likely to end during this period.
For continuous updates and in-depth analysis, follow us on TradingView to stay ahead with our trading ideas and market insights.
08/07/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $63,884.22
Last weeks low: $53,536.87
Midpoint: 58,710.54
A continuation of BTC selling off has lead to a loss of nearly $10,000 from Bitcoins price from high to low. This sell off is mostly propelled by large selling pressure caused by the German Government selling, however they still have $2.2B of BTC to sell and Mt.Gox begin repayments of stolen funds from 2014 causing increased selling pressure.
From a TA standpoint BTC is still LTF bearish, but the interesting part is the HTF's as BTC is retesting the 1D 200EMA as resistance since breaking below it last week. In a Bullrun you really don't want to see too much time spent under the 1D 200EMA, it should really act as strong support and a place to add to LONG positions.
This week I would like to see the Bullish OB+ @ $52,000 tagged before making a judgment on where BTC is going next. It's a strong support area that will attract price too it, TA says this is a good area to go LONG but this is definitely not a blind bid environment. It also happens to be a 30% drop from ATH which has been a common Bullrun correction in the past.
This week my focus is on the ETH ETF updates, the S-1 forms rumoured to be due tomorrow, then it's down tot the SEC to turn them around. ETH is around $3000 with sentiment at yearly lows, definitely an opportunity there.
Also the BTC1D 200EMA is a point of contention and an important S/R level.
01/07/24 Weekly outlookLast weeks high: $63,700.01
Last weeks low: $58,451.16
Midpoint: $61,075.58
Q2 ENDS - Q3 BEGINS
After a rough quarter of sideways chop, ranging between ~$56K-73K it's safe to say that the last 3 months has been a tough one for the crypto markets. Despite the frustration with price it's important to realise the positive elements of the last quarter. The ETH ETF approval, THE HALVING, consolidation at the '21 ATH level are all bullish for the industry as a whole.
As the weekly, monthly and quarterly all close, July 1st almost feels like a new chapter, one that needs to begin strong. Last week we saw BTC dip to the 1D 200EMA for the first time this calendar year. This is not uncommon in a Bullrun, a bounce off that moving average while it is trending up is often a good R:R entry level for a HTF position. This lines up well with how last week played out and until price breaks below the moving average and changes its trend direction, I do not believe we have reason to panic.
As the first few trading hours of the new quarter have completed we can see that there is a clear S/R level at the 0.75 range line that was flipped, I would like to see a positive reaction off any retest of that level. As I stated before starting a new quarter positively can have a positive impact. Staying above $62,400 is important in the short term, $65,000 is resistance and an important S/R zone.
In the altcoin market tomorrow is an exciting day as the ETH ETF goes live , we've seen what an ETF can do with BTC and potentially the same thing can happen with ETH, the difference in my opinion is that institutions and larger investors were all expecting the BTC ETF to be approved when it did. However, I do not believe that those same players expected ETH ETF's to be approved as soon as they did. It is no secret that the SEC has been arguing that Ethereum is a security and therefor comes under the SEC's regulatory power which was always a point of contention and made ETF approval unlikely. Now that the probe has been dropped by the SEC and they have relinquished power over the cryptocurrency, the ETF is set to go live and I believe the big players just weren't prepared for this to happen so quickly hence the delay in price movement comparable to BTC. We shall see if this delayed response continues as trading goes live but I have no doubt that over the long term this is a net positive for ETH and the altcoin market.
In the broader alt space we can see clear signs of seller exhaustion . BTC dropped 10% last week and most alts didn't react anywhere near as negatively as this move usually does. That to me is a clear sign that sellers are all sold out and that buyers are happy to DCA in at these levels to balance price.
This week I am keeping an eye on those altcoins that outperformed BTC last week on their BTC pairs with good fundamentals as these alts will perform the best on the next rally. ETHEREUM ETF trading is the main talking point of the week and I will be monitoring that closely.
GOOD LUCK FOR Q3
$BOME | Here is another 10-20x meme coinIf you remember CRYPTOCAP:PEPE , we made 20x profit from it📈
Here is another 10-20x meme coin. Check out ECONOMICS:BOME if you're ready to take a small risk. It can give us multiple x return!
Like Pepe and Shib, it also listed on binance with a billion dollar market cap and we saw a big selling pressure after listing!
After a big dump there will be a few weeks of accumulation. Then we may see the expansion move 📈
Meme token is very high risky so go with small investment!
ECONOMICS:BOME DCA Level : 0.0060 - 0.0040 - 0.0025
Target : 5x 10x 15x 20x
#Dyorrr
IF YOU LIKE THIS POST PLESE DO FOLLOW & BOOST. THANK YOU.
Crypto Bull Run (2024-25) | ARE YOU PANIC SELLING NOW?Is your coin 50%, 70% down?
Are you crying?
Are you panic selling now?
Remember the last bull run (2020-21)?
Whatever is happening in the market now, it happens during every bull run! So these are normal in the crypto market. Let me share an example of the last bull run 👇
During the last bull run (2020-21), #ETH price dumped around -70%, just before the start of bull run!
In just 30 days, #ETH dumped from $300 to $80 😹
At that time, 90% retails holder sold everything out of fear! They were thinking, Eth price will be ZERO! No bull run will come. Market Scam, Crypto Scam blah blah
After that the rest is history🚀🚀
ETH printed a bottom at $80. Then a big up rally started! Price pumped around +5560%.
$80 to $5000, ETH did +55x in 2020-21 bull run😎
Many will make the same mistake in this bull run (2024-25). Many coins are 70% down from your buying price! Think about those who sold eth at $80 in fear🙈
Even if not +55x pump like #ETH, every good projects will do minimum 10-20x from here Inshahallah
VET Set for Major Gains: Preparing for Alt Season SurgeVeChain (VET) is part of a blockchain platform that enhances supply chain and business processes. It improves transparency, traceability, and efficiency across various industries, including healthcare, agriculture, luxury goods, and logistics. With the VET coin serving as a transactional token, companies can ensure the authenticity and quality of their products.
Currently, VeChain shows significant potential. With a maximum circulating supply of 86.713 billion tokens, about 93.39% already in circulation, VET is poised for growth. The alt season is between Q4 2024 and Q1 or Q4 2025, during which the market is expected to see a substantial increase in volume. This period could present an excellent opportunity for VET to make significant gains.
At present, VETUSD's strong support level is at $0.02443. If this support holds, we could see a significant upward movement. However, if it breaks, the next strong support lies at $0.2028, from where a bounce is expected. We anticipate market volume to start increasing from October 2024 onwards, signaling the beginning of a bullish phase.
Based on our calculations, VET's bull run targets a minimum of $1 by Q1 2025. If VET flips the $1 resistance by Q1 2025, the maximum target could reach $11.2 by Q4 2025. Alt season often brings unexpected price surges, and we might see similar volatility this time. It's crucial to monitor the resistance zones and manage trades accordingly. We recommend exiting long positions around Q1 or Q4 2025 to capitalize on the bull run and alt season's end.
For more detailed analysis like this, follow us on TradingView to stay updated with our latest ideas. Share your thoughts in the comments, and let us know if you need analysis on any specific coins. We're here to provide insights and help you make informed trading decisions.
GNOUSD Analysis: Strong Support and Bull Run Targets for 2025Gnosis (GNO) is a promising new project with significant potential during the bull run. Historically, new projects tend to surge during bullish markets. GNO's role in the Gnosis network is pivotal for maintaining and operating various activities that generate value through market events and speculation. With a maximum circulating supply of just 3 million tokens, GNO stands out for its scarcity and growth potential.
Currently, GNO has strong support at $278, making it a key level to watch. Should this support hold, we can anticipate a substantial gain. If the $278 support breaks, the next strong support lies around $232, from where a bounce is likely, especially as the altcoin season, typically characterized by high market volumes, approaches in Q4 2024.
Based on our analysis, GNO's bull run targets a minimum of $2424. If GNO flips the $2425 resistance by Q1 2025, the maximum target is $2682. The altcoin season often brings unexpected pumps, and we expect similar volatility in this market cycle. Therefore, monitoring resistance zones closely and planning exits from long positions around Q1 or Q4 2025 is crucial, as the bull run may conclude by then.
For more insightful analysis, follow us on TradingView. Stay updated with our latest ideas, benefit from our analyses, and let us know your thoughts in the comments. If you want an analysis of a specific coin, feel free to ask in the comments, and we'll be happy to provide our insights.
Altcoin Season Alert AAVEUSD: Key Levels and Bull Run PredictionAAVE is currently holding a strong support level at $70, presenting significant potential for gains. If this support holds, we could see a robust upward movement. However, if the $70 support breaks, the next crucial support lies around $50. This level is expected to provide a necessary bounce, especially with the altcoin season approaching.
According to historical data, AAVE's bull run targets a minimum of $1600. Should this resistance flip by January or February 2025, the maximum target could soar up to $15,378. This mirrors the unexpected price pumps observed during previous bull runs in 2017 and 2021. The market's volatility could again present lucrative opportunities, provided we navigate resistance zones effectively.
It's crucial to remember our exit strategy: aim to exit the market by March or October 2025, regardless of the prices at that time, as the altcoin season is expected to end during this period.
For more in-depth analysis and to stay updated with our latest trading ideas, follow us on TradingView. Benefit from our insights and maximize your trading potential.
SILVER Massive Run Coming (Timeframe 1-7 years)
I think TVC:SILVER might be preparing for a Massive Breakout from a 45 YEAR consolidation period. This will happen gradually over the next few years. I think current prices are great for getting in to this. I have been buying up silver weekly for the last 2 months on Revolut as an auto-purchase, and will continue to do so. GOLD has had its breakout already. Silver will follow.
Here's the macro to my theory:
Industrial Demand Boom: With the rapid expansion of green technologies, especially solar panels and electric vehicles, the demand for silver over the next years is set to skyrocket. Silver’s unique properties make it indispensable in these growing industries.
Economic Uncertainty: Amidst global economic volatility and geopolitical tensions, silver remains a reliable safe-haven asset. As investors seek refuge from market turbulence, silver will shine as a go-to investment.
Inflation Hedge: With inflationary pressures mounting globally, silver offers an excellent hedge. Its intrinsic value and historical performance during inflationary periods make it a must-have in any portfolio.
Supply Constraints: Mining and production challenges are limiting silver supply, creating a perfect supply-demand imbalance. This constraint will drive prices higher as demand outpaces supply.
Technological Advances: Innovations in medical technology and electronics continue to find new uses for silver, further increasing its demand.
📈 Technical Analysis: Chart patterns are indicating a very bullish trend. Text book 45 year cup and handle formation, Ascending Triangle with strong support levels and upward momentum. Silver is breaking out of long-term resistance zones, setting the stage for an explosive upward move.
💡 Investor Sentiment: Sentiment is turning overwhelmingly positive. Market analysts and experts are predicting a significant price surge, with some forecasting silver reaching unprecedented highs. ($100-200)
COMP Key Support Levels and Potential Bull Run Targets for 2025COMPUSD is currently demonstrating strong support at the $43 level, presenting a promising opportunity for significant gains. If this support holds, it sets the stage for a robust upward movement. However, if the $43 support level is breached, the next critical support is $32. There is an 80% probability of a bounce from this level, especially with the alt season approaching rapidly. Historical trends indicate that the alt season will likely culminate by November or December 2025.
The potential targets for COMPUSD during the anticipated bull run are impressive. Based on historical data, the minimum target stands at $1,730 to 2000$. Should COMPUSD break through this resistance by February or March 2025, we could see a maximum target of $3,000. It is crucial to remember that the alt season is expected to end in November or December 2025, and it is advisable to exit the market in November 2025.
For more detailed analysis and regular updates, follow us on TradingView to stay ahead with our latest trading ideas.
ETHBTC Set for 3X Gain: Strong Support Levels & Bull Run InsightETHBTC is showing strong support at the 0.0477 to 0.045 level, presenting a significant opportunity for traders. This level could provide an excellent entry point, with the potential for substantial gains. If ETHBTC breaks below 0.046, the next confirmed support level is 0.0355, where there is an 80% chance of a bounce, especially with the upcoming bull run projected to extend until November or December 2025.
ETHBTC is a crucial indicator for identifying alt season. If ETHBTC flip the 0.06 level, we could see a robust rally in altcoins. Historically, the targets for ETHBTC during a bull run have been a minimum of 0.09 and a maximum of 0.126 by late 2025.
For more insightful analysis, follow us on TradingView to stay updated with our latest trading ideas.
Matic Coin Analysis: Potential Gains of 13x, During Alt SeasonMatic coin currently holds a strong support level between $0.48 and $0.49. This level presents a promising opportunity for significant gains as we enter the altcoin season. Historical data suggests that if this support holds, Matic could potentially reach a minimum target of $3.415, offering an impressive gain.
However, if the $0.48 to $0.49 support level is breaking, the next major support can be found between $0.29 and $0.31. This level is crucial for Matic's long-term stability.
During a bullish alt season, Matic has the potential to soar even higher. Based on historical trends, the maximum target could reach up to $6.47, representing an extraordinary return of nearly 13x from the current support level.
For more detailed analysis and updates, follow us on TradingView to stay informed about our latest trading ideas. Don't miss out on potential opportunities in the crypto market!
PEPE - Are You Ready?Hello TradingView Family / Fellow Traders. This is Richard, also known as theSignalyst.
📈 PEPE has been overall bullish , trading within the rising channel in blue.
Currently, PEPE is undergoing a correction phase and it is currently approaching the lower bound of the channel.
Moreover, it is retesting massive demand zone and round number $0.00001 in orange.
🏹 Thus, the highlighted blue circle is a strong area to look for trend-following buy setups as it is the intersection of the orange round number and lower blue trendline acting as a non-horizontal support.
📚 As per my trading style:
As #PEPE approaches the blue circle zone, I will be looking for bullish reversal setups (like a double bottom pattern, trendline break , and so on...)
📚 Always follow your trading plan regarding entry, risk management, and trade management.
Good luck!
All Strategies Are Good; If Managed Properly!
~Rich
DOT Coin at Strong Support Potential for 24x Gains in Alt SeasonDOT Coin is currently positioned at a robust support level between $5.1 and $5.4, indicating a significant opportunity for a substantial gain during the upcoming altcoin season. Historically, these support levels have proven to be a launchpad for impressive bullish movements, suggesting that now is an ideal time to consider an investment in DOT Coin.
As we anticipate the altcoin season, the potential targets for DOT Coin are particularly promising. Based on historical data, the minimum target for DOT Coin during a bull run is $122, with a maximum target reaching up to $138. These targets highlight the considerable upside potential for DOT Coin, making it a compelling choice for traders looking to capitalize on the altcoin market.
In conclusion, DOT Coin’s current position and historical performance make it a strong candidate for substantial gains. With solid support levels and ambitious targets, DOT Coin is well-positioned to thrive in the upcoming altcoin season. Traders should consider this opportunity to potentially maximize their returns as the market conditions align favorably for DOT Coin.