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Bulltrap

Bitcoin Bullish ProposalBitcoin Bullish Proposal After the recent price action I've decided to re-evaluate my analysis. By using Andrews Pitchfork, I found a channel price seems to respect. Currently, price is showing a reaction to the median, so if your a bull, this might be something to keep an eye on. If price can break through the median, I believe it will go to the next major resistance at around $6100. However! This price action has verified some of my previous analyses. I still think this is a false breakout. Price still needs to drop down to one of the MA's. Either the daily 200 or weekly 200. At which point it will consolidate and then finally gain enough momentum to rally into an official bull market. Trading Bitcoin can be risky. The price channel above could be useful but I will leave that to your judgement whether it's trade-able. Personally, I am a long term holder. If you are a long term holder as well, don't let the recent price FOMO you into buying at the top. If you are too antsy, wait for it to come down to the lower part of the channel before you buy. Or wait until we come back to the lower MA's.
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by AnotherAnalyst
Bitcoin Bull Trap and Big Players Buying BTCThe Bitcoin bottom could be in but I don't think the big players are ready for the price to go higher. Imagine you are a big player with a copious amount of capital and you want to put it in bitcoin before the next bull run. You know this next run will be a big one. Heck, it could be the mania phase of the actual bubble believed to be in 2017. You have a problem though, one that normal retail traders don't have. You can't just go in with one big order, or even a few, slightly smaller, big orders. If you did, you would quickly eat up all the supply and price would move away from you very fast. You have influence over the market with your amount of capital. So why pay a higher price, when you can get the best price? So you decide you will only buy when there is enough sellers to soak up your orders. This is known as iceberg orders. I suggest you do a little research on them and Wyckoff theory to better understand it. As the big players start to get in, they will have to get in at higher prices. The retail investors beginning to notice and the price drops stop going lower. Eventually, the sentiment shifts and there aren't enough sellers anymore. As a big player, this is a problem. You aren't finished buying and you're definitely not going to buy at a premium. Remember, as a big player you still have some influence over the market. So you decide to take a little profit and at the same time stop the price from going higher in hope it will fall back down to your buy zone, where all your iceberg orders are sitting. Your a smart big player. You know how the retail side likes to buy and sell. You know what indicators they look at, what patterns they watch for, and how irrationally they can react. You notice an opportunity to make some good profit. There's a "golden cross" setting up. There is a support area waiting to be broken. The RSI is sending signals. Let's trap the retail side! You decide to wait for the golden cross to happen and you flood the market with buy orders. This will make price spike. Everybody thinks it's about to go parabolic. FOMO (fear of missing out) kicks in and retail reacts and buys irrationally. Perfect time to sell your bags. Cha-ching. This may even be enough to send prices low enough to fill up your buy orders as well! I believe this is the end of the bear market and big players are getting in position. Bitcoin has a lot of emotion behind it. Especially after the last bull run. This next one will be a mania. There is more awareness this time around and it will send bitcoin to the moon. Buying anywhere in this area is still good for the long haul, but if you have limited capital like me, maybe try to get the most bang for you buck and buy the dip. Don't buy emotionally. Always do your own research and form your own ideas!! If you are in it for the long term, having your own personal view and reasons will help your confidence when things don't go your way, and may help paint a picture you didn't see before. Thanks for reading. Please click like if you enjoyed! I would love to hear from you, leave a comment below on your thoughts. I am always looking for other perspectives.
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by AnotherAnalyst
2
Short term price action in detailsOk here's what I think is going to happen. As you can see I drew a fibonacci from the start of this pump on 8th of February. BTC loves 618 fib retracements so in my opinion we gonna tank to 4150 right now (this will lower down RSI to a more healthy range), then it's gonna bounce back to 4650 or go slightly above it This will be the breaking point when everyone turns bullish again and will be screaming "bull run is over we're going up". For a short period of time it will stop at 3500 (200 weekly MA) and at the re-test of 3100 bottom. After another disappointment we will see a final capitulation down to 2700-2300 where my buy order is.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by supremetrejdr
4
AUDJPY Range Breakout May Be A FAKEOUT! Look at the attached image where price is confined in a channel of a weekly chart. We can see the presence of the weekly 50 EMA which often acts as dynamic support and resistance in most cases. The price did breakout from the range but however it failed to close above weekly 50 EMA! The price is now headed back to test the range's resistance and most of the traders would think its a good opportunity to enter at this stage. Well fundamentally its a good setup to enter as the trade deal is almost done which usually helps the AUD in this case however looking at the technical perspective we have to be concerned that the price has NOT yet closed above the weekly 50 EMA! so what can we do to trade this pair cautiously? Well logically we should wait for the weekly candle to close above the weekly 50 EMA and go LONG from there with the upper end of the weekly channel as our primary target. As for now i want to see where the weekly candle closes and how does the price behave in the coming weeks before i take this pair LONG. Hope you find this analysis useful, if you do please leave a LIKE and FOLLOW me if you want to receive future trade analysis. cheers and thanks
by FX618Analysis
Bull Trap, Bear Trap, Impulse, Consolidation, BullrunMy scenario will celebrate the day after tomorrow its 6 months of existence. It has been the subject of 16 publications, all of which have been verified to date. To believe today that we have already entered a real bullrun would be to deny my scenario and these 16 "ideas" published (*). (*) To be exact, there are 32 publications, because for each idea published in English, I published the same in French. It is difficult not to FOMO on these "beautiful green" of April 2019, even for a regular. The actors of the cryptos are "greedy" and euphoric on the social networks, which is obviously very communicative and tempting. But I must act frankly with those who follow me: I sold all my cryptos the day before yesterday to BTC @ $ 5300. And with a long reflection, where I re-husked, and re-checked all my scenario point by point, indicator by indicator, here is a reminder of what I had planned for 2019, chronologically: - A 1st Ultimate Dip close ~ $ 3k mid-December 2018, signing the end of the bearish retracement. - An oscillating horizontal range 3000 ~ 6000 $ from mid-December 2018 to (approximately) September 2019. - Range which therefore includes one or two Bull Trap between 5000 ~ 6000 $ between April and August 2019. - A 2nd Ultimate Dip close ~ $ 3k in the summer of 2019, marking the end of the oscillatory horizontal range. - A bullish impulse towards the month of September 2019 pushing the price above $ 6,000. - An horizontal consolidation range around ~ $ 7000 from (approximately) October 2019 to February 2020. - Entry into the real Bullrun in March 2020 (average impulse like 2016). - Bullrun euphoric like 2017 from March 2021 (strong impulse). The problem is that we would be today at the peak of a Bull Trap with the risk now of re-dropping to ~ $ 3k.
BITFINEX:BTCUSDShort
by MaxHodler
27
Bitcoin: Comparison with 2015.. Are the bulls being trapped?Yesterday I made the case that presuming the end of the bear may be a bit premature. Comparing the weekly chart to the weekly chart of 2015 shows this as well. I'm comparing this weeks candle to the candle of the 29th of June. Now here is where I'm being a bit premature, as this weeks candle is still young and bitcoin being bitcoin could close anywhere between 0 and infinity. But for arguments sake, let's assume that this candle will close above 4600. Keep in mind that if this is not the case, everything I say from won't really be true anymore. The reason for comparing this weeks candle to that 2015 candle is that they are both the first candles to print a bullish level 2 signal (blue L2 on the chart). Comparing the candles, the current candle definitely looks more bullish, but also prints an exhaustion signal (red dot). This give me more reason to be cautious to the bullish side. The bullish L2 signal in 2015 resulted in a minor pullback to just below the ribbon. The ribbon then remained neutral (grey), and turned bullish (blue) after the indicator printed a second bullish L2 signal. That was the start of the next bull market (to me at least..) in 2015. I'm looking for something similar to happen this time: for the first bullish L2 signal to fail to turn the ribbon bullish and the market to pullback. To where? Well, I don't know. And nobody really does.. Will that pullback take us to new lows? Perhaps, and there are a number of cases to be made in its favour. The first and foremost is the amount of hope that the space still has. The catharsis this upmove caused is evident I think.. This does not mean we won't go higher, just that this hope (unfortunately) needs to be crushed before the bear is over. And this sets up for nasty bull traps.. Looking at 2015 you can see that trap laid out clearly, with a drop of about 33% after the first L2 signal printed. If it goes lower, how low will it go? Again, I don't know. I won't bore you with the obvious levels, truth is, it can spike anywhere between 3000 and 500, perhaps even lower. It may be the final axe coming down, and how much force that axe needs to break the hope is unclear. The only clear thing, I do not fancy being on the receiving side of that blade. Waiting it out here seems to be the wisest option.. Will this time be different? How many reasons can you think of why it will be different? How bad do you want it to be different? "Check yo'self, before you rek yo'self" a wise man once said...
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by DariusZen
Everyone is Comparing 2015 Fractal Incorrectly...Some of you listened when I called the crypto crash and BTC Drop from 6k down to 3k. Then I called the Stock Market Bounce 24 hours before it exploded up. I also called the exact bottom of BTC the day before (all related charts linked below for proof.) How did I do it? Combining the right factors of historical analysis, with current trends, including fundamentals and technicals. I believe to be an excellent trader - to use an artist analogy - you must understand all the tools and all the colors... so even if you paint a simple picture, you paint it well with no limitation or bias. Fundamentals When this drops, easy to blame latest hacks, SEC, justinsun, and whatever else stocks are busting through the ceiling again (blame institutions leaving) there is no real bullish indications -- only hope to this current move (bulltrap?) (reminiscent of Nov 2017) Technicals Current pop up above 20 EMA, squeezing between the 40 (blue circle) Double Bottom with Triple Top EMA 150 & 200 dropping while converging (orange circle) Volume on decline since the crash MACD floating higher than before the crash RSI over-bought is higher than RSI from before the crash preparing for a beautiful cup-and-handle formation takes time Don't paint me as a permabear. I remain unbiased and I called the latest Stock Market pump perfectly (look at the comments on that chart if you want to have a good laugh) I am long-term bullish and I know we are going up, but the timing must be right. Good luck! - you're welcome
COINBASE:BTCUSDShort
by racethehare
23
Everything under control. Was it trap? I warned!Come on. Everything under control. Broadening WEDGE enabled. It was a beautiful BULL TRAP coming out of a large Falling Wedge followed by a False BULL FLAG. Great move. Great trap. Bears are still in control, are not they? Take a look at my previous STUDIES and they will prove the armed farce. You were warned. I'M NOT TOP TRADINGVIEW I'm not a FAMOUS I do not want your MONEY I'm here to help you And in the end I'm the CRAZY! It was a BEAUTIFUL SHORT SQUEEZE
BITMEX:XBTShort
by f3rG0D
2
Short squeeze! Thank youWhat is a Short Squeeze A short squeeze is a situation in which a heavily shorted stock or commodity moves sharply higher, forcing more short sellers to close out their short positions and adding to the upward pressure on the stock. It implies that short sellers are being squeezed out of their short positions, usually at a loss, and is generally triggered by a positive development that suggests the stock may be embarking on a turnaround. Although the turnaround in the stock’s fortunes may only prove to be temporary, few short sellers can afford to risk runaway losses on their short positions and may prefer to close them out even if it means taking a substantial loss. I WARNED! SARDINES BOUGHT
BITMEX:XBT
by f3rG0D
UPDATE!!! BOTTOM NOT IN! Last pump to $4100 before BULLTRAP!Hello.. comparing BTC to the last bulltrap.. i can see again another Bulltrap forming. Reasons: Too much resistance on the upper side NVT still didnt show oversold market (i trust this indicator) Its too early for a bullmarket Lower lows means higher highs We are STILL in the big falling wedge (Which i will show in the comments) I expect the pump tomorrow. Price will propably fall down to $3915 and then pump to $4100 After that i expect a big rejection which will lead to a sell off!
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by iBeardy
21
Bear trap before a dead cat bounce?Good day Traders Bitcoin has been battling with our DMA50 resistance, is now printing hidden bearish divergence on the daily, and we have potential for bearish DI cross looming. The recent short squeeze managed a 38.2 fib retracement after our drop from our 24 December swing high, so I have a 168.1 fib extension target of $2780 if we fail to get above DMA50. Although we had a strong volume candle on the squeeze, we lacked any volume follow-through for a continuation of a rally, and once we reached DMA50, our buying volume dropped off, unlike the build up of buying volume when we bounced from our December lows. A healthy rally would entail us taking the stairs up and elevator down but this was an elevator straight to our DMA50 resistance. We could potentially have a drop / bear trap from here, breaking below WMA200 to set new lows, invalidating the triangle from my previous chart and forming support of a large falling wedge, triggering stops just below $3k. Bitcoin should then have a dead cat bounce, first back above WMA200, then to wedge resistance, and then a breakout with a $4200-$4400 resistance target sometime towards the end of March / start of April. When btc reaches $4200, I suspect we'll encounter strong horizontal resistance as we have since we dropped below $4500 in November last year and we should meet our DMA100. Depending on the strength of trend and bottom-calling fomo, we should have a 38.2 fib retracement back to our 61.8 fib support, somewhere around $3670, which will give us 168.1 fib bull trap extension target of $5110 (to DMA200) once we break above that $4240 - $4480 and DMA100 resistance. If we have a deeper 50 fib retracement to $3500, I'll revise my bull trap target to $4770, which would be a 138.2 fib extension target. We should then potentially drop back to our $3k support, extending the bear market, with a move to new sub $2500 lows. Have a look at the NVT indicator which gives us a network value to transactions ratio and has been quite accurate so far on the daily chart for predicting the bottom/top. You'll see that we're in a great buy area on the weekly chart (flashes green for buy red for sell), but we still haven't bottomed yet on the daily chart, and you'll see that there was only 1 day where it flashed green in 2015 and that was during capitulation. Previous chart and potential to new lows from here: Scenario where we've already bottomed: Another bearish scenario:
COINBASE:BTCUSD
by Corn_Reaper
3