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Bulltrap

TESLA BUY the Rumor Sell the FactTESLA is currently one of if not the Strongest Stock and is helping to hold up the Markets. Strong Move today on Lower Volume. I believe that the Rally is close to wrapping up at this stage of the "Mark-UP" *Wyckoff Distribution" I can see Possible Bullish Continuation through Wednesday. Technicals/Indicators/Patterns: $200 Daily MA & 0.382 Fib are psychological zones that Bulls will want to ensure TSLA gets too .. -^Bullish double bottom pattern places TSLA move to $220 area -^Potential Island Reversal to the bullish side BEARISH: -Bearish Rising Wedge on Daily- if pattern completes, measured move will go to fill gap @ $147.61 --Bearish Divergences are formed on lower time frames (4hr-1hr) -Daily Bearish Divergences are looking to follow suit -OBV & Momentum indicators are diverging to the negative (OBV is High but Momentum is contrary) -Price has been moving down but A/D Line continues rising *I analyze this as Higher Distribution _____________________________ -***TIME FRAME: Analyzing consolidation patterns and impulse moves (Mark-UP) - I am seeing Consolidation on average of 25-27 days and Impulse Moves lasting 14 days *Tesla is going to hit 27 days of consolidation on Wednesday I can foresee the Markdown Phase Beginning for 2 weeks and moving into consolidation until before next earnings in April before the Next Mark-UP This aligns up with Seasonal Market Trends (Bullish in Jan - Decline mid Feb to mid March) - Options Current Options info: *$200 Call Option Wall -Contrarian view is that with High Call Options @ $200 price will close below that by end of week (Market Makers do not want to pay-out) Max-Pain is currently at 197.5 -Bullish view: amount of options could create a "Gamma Squeeze" -Squeezing Tesla to test or surpass Highs in the short-term, ***Short-term pump & Dump Weekly Expected Move: $215 High $197 Low Positives: -Investor Day is Hyping up the bullish trend as everyone is preparing for Elon to showcase "GEN 3" platform -a new commodity vehicle for $25-30k before mark-up. This has retail piling into TSLA stock with an enormous $200 call Option wall again.. -Berlin Higher production levels --QQQ Potential Island Reversal to the bullish side - Help to continue Rally Analysis: Short-Term Neutral/Bearish (Long-Term Bullish) My bias is Bearish with a possible pump & dump scenario in play ... $200 Daily MA & 0.382 Fib are psychological zones that Bulls will want to ensure TSLA gets to .. If Tuesday shows strong Commitment and closes at the highs.. We could see Bullish continuation to $234. Tomorrow is VERY CRITICAL - Monthly close above $200 shows strong buyer commitment - if there is a sell-off and we see a close below $197, I feel confident that Tsla will retrace to $145 area to fill gap (0.618 retracement) Tsla Closing strong tomorrow will lead me to believe that consolidation may continue through next week until we get March Payroll Data (this puts my target price to $232-$234 before we see "Mark-Down" *watch how TSLA reacts to Weekly Expected high at $215 area -I am staying away from Options except for "Day-Of" -Day Trading has been exceptional - waiting 15min after market open has proved beneficial
NASDAQ:TSLA
by Black_Sheep1
2
Bitcoin Bull Trap??? Bitcoin blasted thru all bunch of major resistance then sells off like crazy.... Bull Trap!!? Bitcoin needs to hold the yellow trend line, at least. Not surprised to see Bitcoin doing this here. Upon all seriousness the markets are still uncertain due to the Macro economic environment. I think the reason for the BTC upside is the fact that a lot of Shorts got liquidated (Short Squeeze) plus there are some positive stuff happening in Crypto in other countries. All this Celsius, BlokFi, FTX, Voyager, 3 Arrows Capital and probably a bunch I missed, has already been priced in IMO. This is a very interesting time in the world with one of the biggest shift in monetary policy we will ever see in our life times. Any who, hope you are positioned well as we head into uncharted territory as the World is changing faster and faster by the days passing. Good Luck Out There!
by BuddaCo_LifeStyle
2
BTC ready for is a TrapHello Birdies, EPIC SHORT ALIGNING!!! A exciting week this was. But stay cautious this is a bull trap in progress. As you all know we trade what we see RIGHT! So here is what we are seeing on our weekly chart. The falling wedge going to work as a bull trap. There is a huge trendline which was broke down and converted into resistance The trendline starts in Jan 2021 Converted to resistance in Jun 2022 Retested as resistance in Aug 2022 Its going to test it again somewhere in Feb 2023 Work as a trap and boom Don't beat the line after snake is gone. Trade what you see
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by BlackBirdTrading
10
**Possible BITCOIN bull trap scenario**BITCOIN TA - BULL TRAP?? For this current run, I am anticipating a 5 wave move to $23,000, stemming from the previous run C wave bottom ( shown in the yellow ). However, BITCOIN did not sell off all the way to the previous DEMAND ZONE of $20,600. And alternative scenario to watch for is if the current run is stemming from : 1. the bottom of the ( A ) WAVE, 2. peaking at $23,000 for the end of the ( B ) WAVE, and ... 3. coming back down along the red ( C ) WAVE, bottoming in the DEMAND ZONE of $20,600. **not financial advice** just something I noticed. Leave a LIKE . Leave a COMMENT and tell me what you think.
by Asra84
2
BTC dump is coming? Hi dear community, I hope you are fine. I will be short. I will update my ideas about current situation on BTC chart. I'm looking at 2W BTC log chart by Heikin Ashi candles. I'm comparing 2022 bear market with 2015 coz they are very identical by many factors which I told in my previous analyses. So as you see after making double bottom with strong bullish div BTC pumped from 15.5K to 24.3K as I had mentioned in my previous analyses. There is huge resistance at 24.5-25K zone/200weekly EMA, range high, diagonal and horizontal resistances, monthly diagonal bearish trendline test etc. Approaching to key resistance bullish candles became smaller/check 3D or W chart/, buying volume was diminishing, the momentum was losing creating multi bear divergences on multi timeframes, as a result of the mentioned the price rejected at 24.3K & dropped to 21.6K filling created imbalance, and FVG zones bellow 22.3K. As you see after bottom, BTC created 3-4 big green Heikin Ashi candles marked in pink box and dumped to the main market structure making HL, at the moment you can notice the same green candles in a pink zone with RSI identical move as it did in 2015)). To be honest , we need this healthy correction putting HL in current structure. There is weekly FVG zone at 17.2-20.4K zone as well. In coming days and weeks, I expect BTC to dump to the mentioned zone and fill at least 50% of FVG which is 18.7K. More likely 18.5-19K zone will hold not only as a FVG zone but also strong horizontal support and we'll see strong reaction and bounce from that region which will lead the price to new highs)). If you like my ideas don't forget to like and follow me for further updates. I will appreciate any kind of support. Also check my other analyses.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDShort
by ergal91
BTC Ranging and my plan of actions (long and short ready) Keeping this chart and idea pretty simple as those are always the best plans in my opinion. I have been observing the current BTC range which I have shown by purple lines. I am personally not interested in trading within this range, although there are plenty of trades to take, I am choosing to opt out and let this range run its course especially with a lot of major news releases upcoming. My strategy is simply to wait for buyer or seller strength to overcome the other, meaning a strong candle close outside of the range. When that range is broken (long or short) it will be important to have some altcoins prepared to trade so they should be prepared beforehand. I'll show an example of what I am watching for altcoin trades using this example of YFII-USDT: This is a chart with a strong and obvious resistance overhead. My strategy here is if BTC breaks it's range higher, then I will go through my flagged charts such as YFII and see if they have also just broken that resistance and use that to time the trades. It's important to have setups prepared for longs and shorts so that we are prepared for BTC to break the range either way. The only additional note I will make for the BTC range, is that it will be critical to pay attention to the breaks of any support and resistance I have drawn. Particularly regarding liquidity traps, essentially false breakouts. So if BTC makes a break outside of the range and then comes back into the range after a clear breakout it will be crucial to be able to flip your trading bias and recognize this as a fakeout.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by Obscure_Trading
BTC Super Guppy's super prediction)) 24-25K then 28-30K or 19KDear community and my lovely followers, this analysis covers my previous one analysis about Gaussian channel and 1-7 step price action in 2015 and 2021-2022 bear markets. So if you read this one, don't miss the previous one as well. They are highly correlated. Pay attention that the same 1-7 price action movement happened bellow weekly super Guppy indicator. In 2015 when Price reached to upper red channel of Supper Guppy(#6) it dumped making double bottom(#7), now Price is approaching to the same red upper band of Supper Guppy which is about 24.5-25K(#6), which is also mid point of 5D gaussian channel(#6) + monthly diagonal resistance, range high+ 200 & 50 weekly EMA. A lot of confluences at the mentioned point . So it is less likely price will break the mentioned level at first attempt, So I expect 2015 scenario to be repeated and dumping to 18.5-19K making #7 movement and Higher Low. If you like my analyses, don't forget to like, share, comment and follow please. I need your support. I appreciate any single follow.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSD
by ergal91
2
1D BTC chart and volume volatilityThis is how I see it. Two months ago when FTX crash happened, it created a hole in daily S/R levels, as we can see on VRVP on the right, which was easily used to rise the price again, but no significant increase in volume between big moves. The brightness of the candles on my chart is showing volume per candle. Last three days, we got new highs without volume. Judging by the BTC dominance, those highs were created by bleeding from the alts. So... We had the last local bottom on Jan 1st, and it was at the -45 RSI level. Since yesterday we have printed local top at 100 RSI level and reversal of the trend on my indicator. And a hole in VRVP remains. All that tells me a big correction is needed to get another big leg up. If not, a new low.
Short
by RockinHood
4
BTC. Some correction incoming? Based on their previous analysis, after the double bottom has fully worked out, we can expect to work out the inverted H&S. But there is a strong order block above us, so it is quite logical to expect some grab of liquidity from a bull trap. Therefore , for this setup , it can be painful to use large leverage since the stop is wide enough . The main target of this setup will be a retest of the confluence point of the horizontal and inclined levels and a possible retest of D1 55 ema. DYOR and trade safely
Short
by NT_crypto
2
Will we ride wave 5 up for 4 days?Similar to last night, the market appears to have hit its cue for a more convincing bottom today. Using the 3918 bottom as the end of Intermediate wave 4 until proven otherwise, we will begin to look at the end of Intermediate wave 5 and Primary wave A inside of this Cycle B. Based on waves ending in 2BA5, the models agree the most that wave 5 could last 10 days, with the second most agreement at 1, 3, 14, and 32 trading days in length. The quartiles for movement extension off Intermediate wave 3 are 114.64%, 159.625% (median), and 204.63%. These are the blue levels on the chart above and they respectively correlate with 4159.42, 4340.42, 4521.50. Based on historical waves ending in BA5, the models agree the most on wave 5 lasting 4 days, then 10 days, while the next tie at 1, 2, 3, 11, and 18 days. The quartiles for movement extensions are at 114.64%, 116.69%, 155.66% which brings the values closer to my original forecasts around 4200. Respectively the news levels are 4167.66 and 4324.46 while being the yellow lines above. Lastly, the valuable while less precise data is based on waves ending in A5. Models agree with 2 days first, then 3 days, 10 days, 4 days, 19 days, and a solid tie at 1, 5, 9 and 11 trading days for potential lengths. The quartiles are slightly less while the third quartile repeats at 155.66%. First quartile is 112.36% (4150.24) and the median extension is only 119.84% (4180.34). Most of the targets fall below 4200 which keeps the top within 250 points of today’s low. Even 250 points in 5 days or less is a tall feat and unlikely as the next inflation report waits around the corner. Trendline resistance is decreasing quickly and is all below the prior Intermediate wave 3 top. This could insinuate three scenarios. 1) Where I marked the end of Intermediate wave 3 could be the end of Intermediate wave 5 and we are only heading lower from here. 2) The trendline proves a solid resistance and we do not take out the prior high at 4100.51. 3) We briefly break above the trendline resistance forming a bull trap and hitting other levels of resistance between 4150-4250. If the first case is true, the declines should continue tomorrow, and we will not head toward 4100 this week. The second case could hold true if we slowly move upward without conviction. The third case would likely require larger movements over the next two days to even have a chance at holding true. Regardless we shall see which one occurs. My initial call of Intermediate wave 5 lasting 5 days does not appear to be an option from the models, even though 3 days for Intermediate wave 4 was not a strong choice I stuck with it. The models had strength at 2 and 3 days in length, but we need to at least get above 4100 which is nearly 160 points from today’s close. That would equate to a 100% retracement of Intermediate wave 3 which is rare. There is a strong pocket of data placing the top between 4150-4180 which is where I will target. Three days is not enough time, so I think it takes at least 4. Four days will be sometime next Monday, which still puts the top before the pre-market release on Tuesday of the latest inflation reading. If the days and levels hold true, we are looking for an average daily gain of 52-60 points per day. We likely wont get those gains each day so some would have to leap beyond that. If these gains do not begin tomorrow we are either delayed or the inflation report WILL NOT be the downward catalyst. Let us see what tomorrow brings!
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
Elliott Wave indicates another hot inflation reportWe believe we have finished Intermediate wave 3 after an extended Minor 5 and are somewhere into Intermediate wave 4 which should bottom soon. The full wave identity is 152BA4. Based on waves ending in 2BA4. Intermediate 4 will likely last no more than 3 trading days which would end tomorrow. The quartile movement retracements are at 20.04%, 26.20%, and 32.36%. We surpassed the 26.05% level today which was 3995.07. The 32.36% is the third quartile and that would place the bottom around 3970.31. These values are light blue. Based on waves ending in BA4, most model agreement stands at a length of 1-2 days while 3 days remains likely. Regarding the retracement levels, the first quartile and median are repeated values while the third quartile is at 48.55% for a potential retracement. This would place the bottom around 39.05.20. These values are yellow on the chart Finally, historic waves ending in only A4 provides many more datapoints, however they may be less concise from the precision provided in the prior two paragraphs. Strongest model agreement places the length at 2 days, followed by 1 day, then 6, 3, 10, and 4 days. Regarding the retracements, quartile values repeat again for the first two while the third quartile is near the 61.8% Fib (low at 3851.85) Based on these datapoints, the models are leaning to a length of two total days for Intermediate 4 which would mean the bottom has already occurred at the time of writing. I am still leaning on a possibility of 3 days meaning we could see a new low early tomorrow before a likely rise into Intermediate wave 5 for which I will consider tops later. Early thoughts has Intermediate wave 5 lasting around 5 trading days before we begin the next downturn. Early thoughts to the top should be slightly above current resistance setting up a bull trap and snap back down. These five trading days not including tomorrow (if we achieve a new low for Intermediate wave 4) would begin on Wednesday and end around early next week. This aligns with the Inflation report on Tuesday. If this is the catalyst, inflation likely rose higher than expected and Fed backtracks on cooling down in December which would re-spiral the market for the next month or two.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
3
SPX Final moveI think there's a good chance fat cats will push or at least spike in the area of 4360 in a last short squeeze and a deep desire to show some "not so nasty returns" to wealthy clients. I believe after that will be the beginning of the final move down spiking around 3290. That number is big intersection point of a lot of trends and support. It's also the going back to the first leg down of the Covid crash. On the macro aspect, a lot of bad stuff is converging towards a nasty start Q1 and Q2 of 2023. I think Putin will most likely play a final move to push the world leaders on the edge of WW3 early January in the winter peak. Simultaneously, occidentals corporate and personal credit will run into a wall as liquidity is coming out of the system and earnings coming down mixed with unemployment rise. On the positive side, it will be quick in the grand scheme of time. The 21st century world runs way too fast to be stuck in the same hole for too long. The conclusion is simple. FEDS want to reset the world to where the economy was in 2019 so people get back to work basically fixing their own mistakes. That’s my take on it. In many way, it’s wrong but this has to be done.
SP:SPX
by MTL_INC
6
Don't miss the greatest buying opportunity. When BTC bottom? Dear community and my faithful followers, if you want to make life-changing decisions and become super rich don't wait lower prices. It isn't financial advise but I don't want you to make the same mistakes I made some years ago and don't miss the best buying opportunities. Otherwise you will blame and slap yourselves couple months later not buying #BTC and #altcoin at current levels. As I mentioned many times in my previous analyses #BTC bottomed at 17.5K in June 2022 and the recent dump to 15.5K is a fake breakdown/ bear trap/ with double bottom like 2021 November top which was a bull trap/ fake breakout/ with double top. My worst case scenario is 13.7-14K but I expect new rally from this point. As you see on my chart, green rectangles are accumulation zones. Best buying opportunities happens when price moves inside green rectangle and 1st indicator flashes green dot penetrating in a green zone and 2d indicator flashes vertical green line and blue line appears in 25-30 zone. It happened 3 times in the whole BTC history. If you like my ideas, don't forget to like and follow me please. I will appreciate a lot.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ergal91
7
Make or break. Elliot wave count for the capitulation eventUpdate on my previous idea. The C wave up ended up extending into 4 waves. But that has now completed. It's make or break for the bear market right now. Personally, I don't see us breaking out of the downtrend. But a fake-out is always possible. Note that this technical analysis is a small part of the bearish case. The wider macro-economic environment bear case speaks for itself. I'm long volatility via VIX Call options and CFDs. What do you guys think? *not financial advice.
SP:SPXShort
by Doge_Dean
3
Bitcoins bottom is not in yet? Possible H&S formingWhile many investors are hopeful and cheerful about this somewhat positive price movement, be aware. This could very well morph into a classic head and shoulder pattern. Bitcoin can test the lower blue trendline, to consequently get rejected by the upper trendline making the H&S pattern complete. Also, there are quite some important levels to break for BTC. BTC is nevertheless still trading in a very important triangle (see upper and lower trendline), take into account that it can breakout in both directions. Let's see if this H&S will become reality.
by MrKittyPTL
1
BTC weekly falling wedge pattern breakout and retest!!Hi dear community and my faithful followers, let's pay attention to this weekly falling wedge pattern which has broken and retested with false breakdown/bear trap/ and double bottom+ RSI bullish divergence. At the same time RSI diagonal resistance has been broken and retested as well. On the chart you explained why I think so)). Read bellow text to understand why I think this is a false breakdown/bear trap/ with double bottom. The bellow ideas are from my previous analysis coz the circumstances and the situation are the same. I think the recent dump to 15.5K is a fake breakdown/bear trap/ with double bottom + RSI bullish divergence like 2021 November top, which was a false breakout/bull trap/ with double top+ RSI bear div . So I think the real bottom was at 17.5K in June like the real top in 2021 April. I'm considering that BTC has succeeded to break RSI diagonal trendline and now It is making a retest, I think it will hold and send BTC to 28-30K. On chart you can find my explanation why I think RSI diagonal resistance has broken.
BITSTAMP:BTCUSDLong
by ergal91
2
ETH Headed to New Lows Unfortunately, $569 PT Primary Chart: 2D Chart of ETH Showing Fibonacci Targets ETH and most cryptos are moving fast so this post will be brief. But ETH is headed to new lows. It has sliced through every single major retracement of the rally off the June 18, 2022 low. Squish has remained bearish on BTC and other cryptos despite very brief counter-trend forecasts on occasion to take into account the strength from bear rallies. ETH is plummeting along with the rest of the crypto market due to a well-publicized liquidity crisis that has seen SBF's net worth fall over 95%. Further, crypto market cap just broke below a long-term logarithmic TL. That strengthens the bearish outlook for the entire crypto space given the nature of the break. Supplementary Chart: Total Crypto Market Cap with Long-Term TL Squish's first price target is the YTD low around $880. The second price target is $569 , which is still conservative. Yes, that sounds extreme, but for those who lost 80% from buying at the peak, consider that buying at $1000 can quickly lead to a -50% to -60% loss. Caution is warranted for anything other than well-managed, disciplined trades for counter-trend bounces, which are actually low probability as @Scheplick discussed today in a livestream (highly recommend his livestream events in the future). The most aggressive downside target target is $367, which should not be considered unless and until price falls below $569 decisively. This is the measured-move area as well as a Fibonacci 1.00 projection of the first major segment of the decline projected from the peak of the summer's rally. ________________________________________ Author's Comment: Thank you for reviewing this post and considering its charts and analysis. The author welcomes comments, discussion and debate (respectfully presented) in the comment section. Shared charts are especially helpful to support any opposing or alternative view. This article is intended to present an unbiased, technical view of the security or tradable risk asset discussed. Please note further that this technical-analysis viewpoint is short-term in nature. This is not a trade recommendation but a technical-analysis overview and commentary with levels to watch for the near term. This technical-analysis viewpoint could change at a moment's notice should price move beyond a level of invalidation. Further, proper risk-management techniques are vital to trading success. And countertrend or mean-reversion trading, e.g., trading a rally in a bear market, is lower probability and is tricky and challenging even for the most experienced traders. DISCLAIMER: This post contains commentary published solely for educational and informational purposes. This post's content (and any content available through links in this post) and its views do not constitute financial advice or an investment or trading recommendation, and they do not account for readers' personal financial circumstances, or their investing or trading objectives, time frame, and risk tolerance. Readers should perform their own due diligence, and consult a qualified financial adviser or other investment / financial professional before entering any trade, investment or other transaction.
Short
by SquishTrade
11
Trading RSI Divergences LIKE A BOSS (I may have failed you)Get your copy of the Free Heiken Ashi Algo Oscillator I'm not going to lie. There is WAYYY too much technical stuff to type up in this for you guys. its best if you watch the video. Always Always Always ask questions below. I am always more than happy to show you what's what. This is some UPPER LEVEL STUFF in this video and i know a lot of you won't fully understand it but i want you to understand what it is that you DON'T KNOW about. Unless you know these things, you won't know what questions to ask about. So here we go. Let's get into it. Trading the RSI Divergence like a BOSS After the RSI Divergence is found: On the chart: (KEYS) 1 = last HH 2 = current HH 3 = 1st HH Closing Price 4 = Confirmation of candle closing BELOW 1HH close price 5 = Find your targets 6 = Pinpoint any target with multiple confirmations Steps to take: 1. See last Highest High 2. Draw a line across the last Highest High close price. 3. Confirm second HH is higher price but lower RSI value. Now wait.... 4. Wait for candle to close below price of step (2) 5. Enter SHORT if (Heiken Ashi Candle is closing RED) 6. Your 50ema is Take Profile #1 (Set it up) 7. Your swing high is your stop loss 8. What does the RSI Formula tell you? Is it in the positive? So what! Use the same numbers but trade SHORT. Yep, that what i said, TRADE IT IN REVERSE! This is Take Profit #2 9. Do the Fibonacci trick to confirm which is closer (tp 1 or tp2) 10. Look left for the most recent area of Liquidity. It's a candle with a long wick up or down where price reverses sharply. 11. Scan the Algo for a price level WITH volume. You have found your target. Adjust your take profit and walk away.
Education
by CoffeeshopCrypto
81