Buy-sell-signals
SHIBUSD UPTRENDHere we are again guys ... another triangle breakout and Shiba Inu seems to be ready for run. I think there is chance for move to 0.00000979 and even higher, and I will be adding another position if the pullback to the BUY LIMIT level occurs. Check the related SHIB idea to get the bigger picture. 🦴🐕
Enter the market with absolute risk management
ENTRY: local high @ 0.00000842
SL: local low @ 0.00000605
TARGET: height of the triangle projected from midpoint of the local range (BUY LIMIT - SL) @ 0.00000972
INVALIDATION: when SL level hit
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EUR/USD for July 05: FOMC Meeting Minutes Key for DirectionEUR/USD Daily Update for July 05. Here is what you need to know to trade the pair today.
FUNDAMENTALS:
A strong gain in jobs but rising unemployment rate and unchanged wages in the US led to some selling pressure in USD, but profit-taking ahead of the extended weekend and US holidays was likely the key driver of US weakness on Friday. Look for a short-term correction, but the direction for USD will likely continue to be bullish.
In the euroarea, wories about the new Delta virus variant and softer German PMIs could extend the downtrend in EURUSD. The FOMC Meeting Minutes on Wednesday will be a key event for the future direction of the pair, as markets will scrutinize how Fed hawks and doves are arguing their cases for a potential rate hike in 2022. For now, there is little reason for markets to lower their Fed hiking expectations.
Latest Headlines:
USD News:
US Dollar Index remains on the defensive near 92.20
US Dollar Index Price Analysis: DXY probes rising wedge breakdown above 92.00
US inflation expectations fade recovery moves
Fed and ECB events to keep an eye on this week
EUR News:
EUR/USD to resume its falls amid covid worries and a rethink about the Fed's moves
Eurozone Sentix Investor Confidence improves to 29.8 in July, misses estimates
Eurozone June final services PMI 58.3 vs 58.0 prelim
Germany Markit Services PMI came in at 57.5, below expectations (58.1) in June
Germany Markit PMI Composite below expectations (60.4) in June: Actual (60.1)
Upcoming Market Reports:
Here are the most important market reports for EUR/USD to follow in the coming days (all times are UTC timezone):
Monday at 12:00: USD Bank Holiday
Tuesday at 09:00: EUR ZEW Economic Sentiment (Expected: 79.0 , Previous: 81.3 )
Tuesday at 09:00: EUR German ZEW Economic Sentiment (Expected: 75.0 , Previous: 79.8 )
Tuesday at 14:00: USD ISM Services PMI (Expected: 63.9 , Previous: 64.0 )
INTERMARKET:
2-year yield differentials point at further downside potential in the EURUSD pair.
SENTIMENT:
CoT:
The net positioning in EUR among leveraged money remains bearish, although this category of traders reduced their bearish bets in the previous week. USD positioning (as measured by the value of total contracts) is less bearish after the Fed adopted their hawkish stance, although the majority of traders are still short on the currency. Watch out for a short-squeeze here. Positioning is bearish for EUR/USD.
TECHNICALS
The pair broke above a longer-term bearish trendline on the 1-hour chart, although on quite light volume. The overall trend remains bearish until we see a break above the 1.1974 level, which also acts as a key resistance to the upside.
Other levels to watch:
Major resistance: 1.1974
Minor resistance: 1.1900-10 (61.8% Fib)
Minor support: 1.1852
Major support: 1.1805 (last week's low)
== SUMMARY ==
From a fundamental standpoint, the pair has potential to move towards 1.17 during the week, but a short position can only be established if we get a clear signal that the bearish trend is resuming.
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MATIC BUY/Sell ideasMATIC is rising according to last growing pattern (15min. 14.05.2021 - 16.05.2021)
Horizontal lines shows when I sell (red) and when I buy (green).
Time For Splunk To Bounce Up?Based on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on May 4, 2021 with a closing price of 119.41.
If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 120.045 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 3.1735% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 5.92% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 8.0325% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well.
The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 50 trading bars after the signal. A 0.4% rise must occur over the next 50 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 18.0 trading bars; half occur within 36.0 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 46.0 trading bars.
The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement.
As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
All movement could technically be over after the second bar from signal as the larger green box was breached and followed by a retreat. If this is not the case, it is interesting the close today occurred in line with the bottom of the smaller red box, meaning the drop could be over and a week or two of gains may start as early as the open tomorrow.
All statistics and the full analysis are available for free as always at the site below.
Brent Crude: $44.50 is breaking 🛢TECHNICALS: Morning traders! Brent crude is reaching its highest level since early March on US stimulus hopes and ahead of the EIA oil inventory data. Strong breakout candle forming on the 1-hour chart.
RISK SENTIMENT: Risk-on this morning, supporting higher oil prices.
HOW TO TRADE: Looking for a pullback to previous resistance and trading pullback weakness. Strength in the correction might send oil back into its previous range, so be aware of a possible fake breakout!
AUDJPY Detailed Analysis - Short SetupAccording to this week’s JPY COT report we can see that the Yen is stacking up even more long contract positions. We can expect it to hold a strong position among most of the pairs surely till the end of the month.
AUDJPY has been in an uptrend since the false breakout in March 2020 where it reached the 60.000 mark near the monthly critical area. Now it has passed several critical zones without doing any correction and from a technical perspective it is a good time to do so before moving up towards the 85.000 area.
The following structures give us a clue of how it will happen:
1. A formation of a reverse head and shoulders can be seen on the weekly timeframe.
2. A “M” formation can be seen on the 4H timeframe.
On the 4H timeframe we are in a closed triangle structure which is coming to its end. After the strong close on Friday we can expect a second top in the daily critical area near 76.500. Afterwards the rejection will take place.
Our target will be the 70.000 mark.
Happy Traidng!
Silver Short Setup (XAGUSD) - Detailed AnalysisAccording to the last Silver COT Report we can see that it continues dominating “long” contract size positions. And that’s why I expect the price to go for a second top near the 22.50000 area.
After price closed above the 4H critical zone at 19.60000 we saw a strong upward momentum towards the monthly critical near 22.80000. Price closed above two critical zones without doing any corrections, so now it is the right moment to do one.
We have 2 good trading opportunities:
1. Since we can see the bullish dominance from a COT perspective, we can expect the price to receive support from the monthly critical near 21.00000 and then create a second top near 22.80000. After that, a strong correction will come into the play. It will most likely go down towards the daily critical near the 18.00000 mark. But we must be cautious with the 4H critical zone near 19.50000. A second top will be a good indicator for the build-up of a “M” structure.
2. The second possible sell entry will be at the neckline of our new “M” formation near 20.80000. It also aligns perfectly with the 0.618 Fibonacci level of the previous downwave and with the monthly critical area.
Good indicators for an entry will be strong rejection from the critical zones!
Happy Trading!
GBPJPY Weekly Analysis - Long SetupRed zones- critical zones based on the daily time frame
Blue zones – critical zones based on the 4h time frame
Orange zones – critical zones based on the 1h time frame
According to last week’s GBP COT report we can see a strong increase in the long “contract” sizes. Even a decrease in short positions can be seen within the long-term investors. This can lead to a strong break above the 136.000 mark.
From a technical perspective we are in a closed triangle on the daily timeframe since the beginning of March. Its bottom and upper trendlines have been respected multiple times and right now we are just above the bottom one. On the 1H timeframe we are in a closed triangle structure since the July 6 and we are at its end. According to the COT data we can expect a second attempt for a close above the daily critical 136.000 area.
Crucial is here to enter at the right moment and for that we have 2 good possibilities:
1. Price respects the daily and 1H bottom trendlines near the 134.100 area and goes straight towards the daily critical 136.000 mark, creating multiple higher highs along the way.
2. Price does a false breakout from both triangles and goes towards the “W” neckline on the 4H timeframe near 133.600 where it gets rejected. Afterwards it will go for the 136.000 mark and as mentioned above, it will create multiple higher highs along the way.
A strong rejection on the 1H/4H timeframes from one of the zones will be a good indicator to enter.
Happy trading!
BTCUSD Multi-Timeframe Analysis Orange trendline – critical zone based on the weekly timeframe
Red zone – critical zone based on the daily timeframe
Blue zone- critical zone based on the 4H timeframe
Blue dash line – showing the closed triangle on the 4H timeframe
For the past 2 months we can see that the monthly trendline played a huge role as a resistance point for the BTC price. After it reached it, a strong rejection followed right away. Since the end of June, a closed triangle formation can be seen and right now based on volatility and price structure we are finally at its end. Most likely price will break above it in order to try reaching the monthly trendline once again. After this happens a strong rejection needs to take place. And a false breakout near the 10000.0 will be a good sign + a close bellow the monthly trendline.
After we see the rejection, a good TP1 will be the first daily critical near the 8700.0 area. If the price continues downwards, TP2 should be the second daily critical near the 7500.0 mark.
Happy Trading!
EURUSD - Multi-Timeframe Detailed SetupYellow zones- critical zones based on the monthly/weekly timeframe
Red zones- critical zones based on the daily timeframe
Blue horizontal lines – critical levels based on the 4h timeframe
According to last week’s EUR COT Report we can see that the long contract sizes are not only dominating the long/mid-term trends, but also there was a huge increase from last week as well. Crucial for the future price development will be the next COT report.
After price got rejected from the monthly critical near the 1.14200 area on the 10. June, it made a small correction towards the daily critical at the 1.11800 mark.
No further strong sell pressure was noticed after the rejection. Multiple attempts were made to break into the monthly critical and none of them had a strong rejection as the one on the 10. June. This created a new uptrend on the 4H time frame and it has also built new higher highs. The correction towards the higher lows was done due to the new upper-trendline which also plays the role of a resistance zone.
Now we have 2 possible scenarios and next week’s COT Report will be the decisive factor for which one will happen:
1. Price is already doing a small correction after the attempt to break the monthly critical. Then it goes for a close above it, respecting the upper trendline. After that, a touch with the upper trendline of the closed triangle near the 1.16200 will happen. And then finally the price will be able to do a strong correction towards the 1.11000 mark.
2. Price loses its buy force after a second attempt for a close above the monthly critical is made. This will result in a new downtrend towards the 1.11000 mark, while creating a “M” formation on the 4H timeframe. In order of this to happen, a strong rejection from the liquidation zone above the monthly critical (1.14300) must take place.
Happy Trading!
CHFJPY Multi Time Frame Detailed Analysis - Short SetupYellow zones- critical zones based on the monthly/weekly time frame
Red zones- critical zones based on the daily time frame
Blue zones – critical zones based on the 4h time frame
Orange line - critical point based on the monthly time frame
According to last week’s COT Report- the Swiss Franc is in a strong position, based on its bullish positions, but the lack of increase of dealer contracts may be a sign of a sudden change in directions. The COT Data on JPY is also bullish , but a more precise picture on the future direction will wait for another 2,3 weeks.
From a monthly perspective we’re in a channel since the beginning of 2001 and it has been respected multiple times throughout the years. The last contact with the channel was in November 2015 when it made a false breakout above the upper-trend line. Now we should be in a downtrend till we touch the bottom trend line .
On the weekly time frame, we are in a closed triangle formation which can be the trigger for the continuation towards the bottom of the channel. For the past month there have been 4 rejections from the nearby monthly critical area. This week was the strongest rejection among them all.
On the daily time frame, we have 2 critical zones that can be decisive for our scenario to work. We need to monitor them frequently. On this time frame we can see the possible build up for a “M” formation which will be a good confirmation for our plan.
On the 4H time frame: The close above the monthly critical was a definitive sign that the price will continue climbing, but it then got rejected and so the reverse head & shoulders structure also failed. Surely a lot of buyers got stuck in that zone. The entry point at the neckline of our future “M” formation must be confirmed with a strong rejection. After that the price must go towards the bottom trend line of the weekly closed triangle.
Hope you enjoyed my analysis. If you did, please leave a like, comment or follow. Thank you!
Happy Trading!
XAUUSD Long Yellow zones- critical zones based on the monthly time frame
Red zones- critical zones based on the daily time frame
Blue zones – critical zones based on the 4h time frame
Like I said in my 1H Gold analysis before the price went up - last COT Gold report came out bullish and no changes that could indicate a short momentum are noticed.
We are at the highest price since 2011 and the 1800.000 area has been finally reached. Which means that we have a 4h candle close above the monthly critical area. Now it is important that we see a strong bullish confirmation above the upper-trendline of the closed triangle structure. This will be a strong bullish confirmation.
There 2 scenarios:
1. Most likely the price will go towards the second monthly critical above the 1855.000 area and when it reaches it a strong rejection may come. If this happens, support from the 1800.00 zone is expected.
2. Less likely to happen: a rejection from the 1800.000. This will make the price fall towards the 4h critical point near the 1745.000 mark, where a second bullish attempt may take place.
Happy Trading!
DAX pushing above key resistance, but more hurdles are waitingThe DAX managed to push above the key 11,200 level today, but it could have difficulties to keep up with the recent bull run. The 200-day MA, 61.8% Fib and a rising trendline resistance all await near 11,700.
Although some major market reports came in better than expected, such as PMIs, the eurozone is still far away from a recovery. I am sitting on my hands for this one.