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Buy_the_dip

AAPL Signals Short Term DropOf the 71 times AAPL triggers a sell on my RSI indicator (the magenta arrow at the bottom of the chart), the stock drops 97.143% of the time in the following 25 trading days. During 37% of the successful drops, the stock moves upward for 1-4 more days after the signal occurs in what I call the delay period. What qualifies as a successful drop? The sell signal was triggered based on the closing price of AAPL stock on July 10, 2024 at 232.98. This means 97% of the time the stock will move below this closing price in the near-term. 2.85% of the time, the stock does not drop below this price over the following 25 trading days. The stock has always dropped below the signal closing price by at least 0.266% over the next 100 trading days. On the chart above, the red boxes at the top are the delay zones of interest. The larger red box contains 100% of all delayed movement. The smaller box contains the stock's top or peak of the delay for 50% of the occasions. The same holds true for the two large green target boxes on the bottom. The final downward movement bottoms in the smaller green box 50% of the time, while the much larger green box contains bottoms or valleys for all downward movement. This delay period of potential continued upward movement has historically had a maximum 3% gain before the stock eventually dropped. Regarding the bottom of the drop. Over the next 25 bars, it can occur on any day in the range with the median bottom occurring by day 8. 75% of the bottoms have occurred before day 18. The stock drops a minim of 0.266%, and median of 5.021%. 25% of the bottoms are no lower than 2.152%, while 75% of the drops are 8.3% or less. The four shallowest drops over the next 25 days have been 0.266% (September 2010), 0.312% (February 2017), 0.827% (March 2019), and, 0.868% (August 2020) while the four deepest drops have been 63.23% (August 2000), 26.58% (December 1999), 26.51% (January 2006), and 24.80% (September 1999). The most recent double-digit percentage drop was 15% in April 2019. All shallow drops occurred in the most recent strong bull market, while the largest drops were part of the dot-com bubble burst. While this current potential drop will likely avoid the sharper end of sell-offs, it is always interesting to see the strength and accuracy of signals. Historical movement is not indicative of future movement, but it is good to have as a data point.
NASDAQ:AAPLShort
by StockSignaler
Two Signals For MGM Provide Rollercoaster ActionI had two trading signal trigger for MGM last week that could set the stage for some good up and down trading. My MACD overtraded signal fired on the daily chart on January 31, 2023 indicating the stock should move down over the next 10 trading days. This signal is accurate 94.297% of the 264 studied occurrences. There is a delay to the downside action that occurs during 3% of the successes. This means the stock moves upward before reversing course and obeying the signal's projected movement. The delay area for this specific signal is the white box on my chart above. The target box for the bearish movement is the larger green box to the downside. On February 2, the closing price created a bullish signal based on my multi-timeframe indicator. This bullish signal indicates MGM will likely move to the upside in the next 10 and 25 trading bars. However, this indicate has a high delay rate at 62.791% over 10 days and 73.256% over 25 days. This means the stock moves down first prior to moving up. The typical delay area for this signal is the yellow box which overlaps the white and green boxes. I have also placed the likely bullish target box as the lighter blue outlined one. We can use the delay box for the second signal to shrink the possible target area for the bearish signal. The overlap of the yellow box in the green likely indicates future downward movement will likely occur between 5 and 12 February with a bottom between 42.00-43.24. Once this bottom is in, the stock may then move upward to the bullish target box which begins around 46.63. This could provide an interesting trading setup if we buy on this dip. As far as movement once or if we hit the bullish target box? There is a key resistance line (the dotted magenta line) around 51.17 which stood strong since November 2021. It was broken through to a new all-time high on July 31, 2023 up to 51.35, however, the stock has never closed above 50.77. We will see what happens with this ceiling. My modified wave theory does have this stock nearing a top for now, however it remains to be seen.
NYSE:MGMLong
by StockSignaler
3
Profit Taking On Friday?Minor wave 3 has possibly ended on cue with the high at the open today. If this holds, next stop should occur quickly with a Minor wave 4 bottom. The historical models of common retracement percentages are on the right. The three maximum models are red at the bottom. The pink levels are the quartiles for the most specific relational data and generally contain the bottom among the three levels. Light blue lines are next slightly broader data set and the yellow are the broadest dataset. The second study has the largest agreement for the bottom in a very tight range of 4685-4690 which is the top green box. The larger green box contains the top and bottom of the next range and likely a more probable location for the bottom. This is between 4645-4680. The same set of modelling is also used to determine duration for Minor wave 4. The strongest agreement is at 24 hours long with second at 7 hours. These are the lengths of waves 2 and 3 respectively and possibly unlikely as mentioned in prior analyses, however, we are in more of a micro wave with the Minor waves and those levels cannot be ruled out as they would be in a long duration macro wave. Next agreement is 14 hours (possibly encouraged as a multiple of 7 hours) and then 21 hours. Just like there are two boxes of interest when it comes to price I have the same for duration. The top box is the 7 to 14 hour area and the larger green box is 7-21 hours. The next study is my newer derivative model. The bottom should be contained in the light blue box (which is yet to be entered indicating more downward action tomorrow). This is between 2-20 trading hours. The price should be between 4636.95-4693.03. A more specific area for the bottom is the orange box between 3-13 hours and 4638.53-4679.26. The most specific target region tiny pink/magenta box) from median data is between 4652.01-4665.49, however, the duration has already been busted. The final study seeks specific ratios of the other micro waves in the current macro wave to identify common historical waves. Minor wave 3 so far gained 192.07 points while Minor wav 1 gained 60.97. Wave 1/ Wave 3 is 0.317436. Similarly working Minor wave 2's loss of 52.89-->Wave 1/Wave 2 is 1.15277. I sought all micro wave 4s in which the prior micros held a 1/2 ratio between 1.1 and 1.2 AND 1/3 ratio between 0.28 and 0.35. I further determined what those wave 4s did and developed potential targets for the current wave 4. This data puts the duration between 6-8 hours and 8-19 hours. The bottom is contained between two pockets at 4673.9-4693.1 and 4663.4-4673.9. Ideally this has the bottom no lower than 4663 and lasting less than 19 hours. Considering all of the data and projections from the studies. It looks like the bottom of Minor wave 4 could occur as soon as tomorrow but no later than Monday. My forecast for the bottom is inside the white box between 4663-4680. This could be as simple as profit taking from the amazing bull sprint in the past 6 weeks. If this target zone is hit on Friday, I should lay out forecasts for Minor wave 5 and the final market top this weekend. I continue to lay all models out as part of my testing and refinement to see which ones work or are working, versus which models can be discarded. Although the biggest key is historical data may not be indicative of future behavior.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
3
Two Large Rallies Before the Bottom Falls Out in 2024If Primary 1 finished today, it hit the forecasted mark from here: And here: The original call for the end of Primary wave 1 ending in October was here (August 2 idea #1): However, I knew the bottom of Primary 1 would be a little later than the initial forecast once Intermediate wave 1 was late in hitting the mark. The initial forecast for the end of Primary wave 1 was based on the theory the complete bear market would end between August 2024 and April 2025. Based on 6 likely end locations (from relational data based on Cycle wave A and B behaviors), I back calculated what each Primary wave would have to do to achieve this movement which were the pink boxes in this idea (August 2 idea #2): Basically waves 1-5 fulfill a particular amount of the overall wave’s length and movement and I took first and second sigma values to determine the range. From those pink boxes I estimated Primary wave 1’s likely end location if the final market bottom occurred in September 2024. Primary wave 1 should end around October 5, 2023 to hit this final market bottom. From this date, I back calculated what Intermediate wave 1 should do to hit this target as outlined in the first August 2 chart above. Once Intermediate wave 1 finished a week after the first estimate, I figured Primary wave 1 must be at least a week and a day later than planned. Once Primary wave 1 ended, I can then go back to the idea with the pink boxes to make the first assumptions about the final market endpoint in late 2024 or Q1 2025. Based on the end of Primary 1 occurring after the right side (outside) of the first two boxes, the end should occur after September 2024. Based on the movement occurring above the top of the sixth box, the market top should occur above 2733. The furthest end point in April 2025 is less likely with the drop not occurring below 2733 and it is also ruled out. The current forecast for the market bottom is between September 23, 2024 and March 30, 2025 likely in the range of 2878.89-3183.44. I am leaning more toward the date of the 2024 election, possibly the day results are finalized. These values will change and likely narrow as each subsequent wave is completed over the next 12 months until the final target is fairly precise like the current bottom called out today. With these updated forecasts in mind, it is time to make the first projections for Primary wave 2’s end location. Pre-estimate was early- to mid-December last week. The current projection is between December 12, 2023 and January 2, 2024. Most models keep the end point before the end of year holiday weeks but more data should clean up the date. The models are much stronger with large agreement in a tight window between 4460-4480. The secondary window and more conservative target is a top between 4420-4450. These are determined based on the below methodology. The derivative model does not provide values for waves 1-2 and A-B. The Intermediate wave A and B endpoints are nominally placed and not currently based on calculations (do not expect them to be official/accurate). The overall path to the bottom looks like: METHODOLOGY: I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data. Derivative models take the annotated waves from the above methodology and compare specific ratioed-relationships to predict future movement based off of smallest standard deviations in processed models. ***Currently in beta testing to determine efficacy***
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
Down For Two More Days and then...Today’s break below 4238 all but sealed the deal on Minor wave 4 going up higher. Most likely path now is the index is well into Minor wave 5 en route to the bottom below 4130 in the coming days. Some signs that Intermediate wave 3 does not have much more to decline is the multiple wave 3 signals visible on the Daily chart. A gap between wave 3 signals indicates the end of a wave 3 of 3 and the beginning of the end of the wave 3 itself. The first signal clearly occurred where Minor wave 3 was believed to have ended. A return of the signal based on today’s trading means we may get a few more days of signaling before the bottom is established. But this firmly hints that Minor 4 is no more. The data for forecasting Intermediate wave 3 remains valid from yesterday as nothing has changed to impact those values. The slope to move up to yesterday’s forecasted Minor 4 endpoint to the Intermediate wave 3 endpoint looks much more realistic today after confirmation Minor wave 4 ended many hours ago. METHODOLOGY: I operate a modified wave theory composed of Dow Theory and Elliott Wave Theory. All data is determined from comparing current wave locations with historical wave relationships. The listed percentages are based on previous movement extensions and retracement quartiles of the data. There is too much data to list all points but overlap of the quartiles based on specific relationships tends to point to more likely targets. The light pink levels are based on most specific data, light blue is slightly broader, and yellow levels are the broader set of data used. A red level typically indicates maximum historical move for the current wave throughout the historical data. MINOR 5: Minor wave 1 was 21 hours, wave 2 was 40 hours, wave 3 was 62 hours, and wave 4 was a measly 10 hours. There are zero requirements left in play for Minor wave 5’s length meaning it can end tomorrow or a week from now (less likely, just getting the point across). Minor wave 5 is currently 20 hours old. The models point to a duration for Minor wave 5 to be less than 59 hours which would be the morning of October 11th. Some models indicate 45-50 hours for duration, with a renewed uptick around 52-54 hours long. Another pocket of strength is at 35 hours which is just over 2 trading days away. Models are indicating a bottom between 4115-4150 for Minor wave 5, with a bottom as early as 4200. The overlap in the Minor wave 5 bottom and Intermediate wave 3 bottom is a small area between 4115-4140 between the end of trading on Friday and midday next Monday. While both the yellow and magenta boxes could contain (or neither) the bottom, this small white overlap box will be the focus. ECONOMIC CALENDAR: If the bottom is Friday or Monday, Friday is very busy from a news standpoint, while Monday appears calm. If the bottom is Friday, it may go down initially as the early morning numbers are digested but then beginning to slowly move up later or Monday begins to drift upward on no news and a holiday for some folks.
SP:SPXShort
by StockSignaler
Good Start To Wave 3, More To FollowNow that last week has settled, it looks like PATH TWO was the chosen path from Like most of my analyses the original analysis is normally the correct one. Most premature analyses tend to rush a process that should otherwise be left alone. What does this mean? Intermediate wave 2 was later than initially projected and did not go as low per In fact, the analysis from last weekend using Minor wave A and B data indicated it would no longer drop to 3950. The likely floor would be no lower than 4000 and could break just below the end of Minor wave A which was 4049.35. The call for the bottom could have been at 4049.03 and for now the bottom was 4048.28. This low provides Intermediate wave 3 the room to gain the original projection of 300 over a few weeks, however Friday got a chunk of that. The projection for the end of Intermediate wave 3: Based on waves ending in 2BC3, Intermediate wave 3 could last 17, 42, or 48 days. The quartiles for potential movement (light blue lines) are a 110.75% extension of Intermediate wave 1, 302.37%, and 371.04%. Based on waves ending in BC3, strongest model agreement for length are at 12, 25, and 48 days. The quartile movement extensions (yellow lines) are 142.75%, 244.81%, and 261%. Based on waves ending in C3, strongest model agreement has Intermediate wave 3 lasting 12 or 25 days. Next strongest is at 24, 36, 50, and 62 days. The models become more diluted after that. The quartiles (white lines) are 144.13%, 209.13%, and 302.37%, respectively. In digesting the models, a slow wave 3 is not likely to occur especially with a diagonal trendline (thicker dashed red at top) which has been a pillar of resistance since Cycle wave B began in October 2022. 42 days long would put the end of Intermediate wave 3 around July 6th. The aforementioned trendline would be around 4424 at that point. 25 days long would place another potential wave ending around June 9th. The trendline would be around 4390. For Fibonacci traders this is pretty much at the 161.80% “Golden Ratio.” 12 days would be around May 19th, aligning with a 150% extension of Intermediate wave 1 at 4350. Another possibility is the diagonal resistance line is temporarily broken as a bull trap. This would mean the index strongly goes above the trendline before correcting significantly. We are near the end of the larger corrective wave which began in October. After the impulse wave up, we should have a drop in the index possibly over a single week before a quick move up again. If Intermediate wave 3 is shorter than Intermediate wave 1’s length of 25 trading days, then Intermediate wave 5 must be equal to or shorter than Intermediate wave 3 as Intermediate wave 3 cannot be the shortest wave. This is crucial to keep in mind. This is my most expected scenario if the index moves above 4300 within the next 7-10 trading days. I have laid out many possibilities and only time will tell, but I doubt Intermediate wave 3 is longer than 25 days, especially after a strong day 1 on Friday. I further expect the top to remain below 4393. I will continue to provide updates as the index moves along and completes the Minor waves inside of Intermediate wave 3. I am not settled on the end of Cycle wave B yet, but the current estimation is before the end of June. The potential catalysts for tops the summer remain Debt Ceilling Debacle and China action against Taiwan. A potential scenario for the end of Intermediate wave 3 is a temporary impasse on the debt ceiling vote in which the US defaults for a few days leading to Intermediate wave 4 or wave 3 ends when a band-aid 3 week extension is permitted. End of cycle wave B could be brought on if there is no solution by the end of June and no band-aid bill is passed. The China scenario would be a decision to invade Taiwan and taking control of the semiconductor chip market. All countries and products requiring chips would be impacted. Some companies have been working quickly to establish plants, factories, and resource mining in other places throughout the world, but China could cause chaos by taking more control of Taiwan.
SP:SPXLong
by StockSignaler
Hard to ignore this many oversold signalsMy models say the Fed cannot raise rates beyond 0.5 points tomorrow or they cannot be trusted in the future. We should see a quick rally to end this week and perhaps begin next week, before the reality of $6+ fuel prices set in again and we continue the bear market. Based on historical movement, the trough could occur anywhere in the larger red box. The final targets are in the green boxes. The pending top should occur within the larger green box as has been the historical case. Half of all movement has ended in the smaller green box. In this instance, the signal indicated BUY on June 10, 2022 with a closing price of 54.66. If this instance is successful, that means the stock should rise to at least 54.97 which is the bottom of the larger green box. Three-quarters of all successful signals have the stock rise 2.28% from the signal closing price. This percentage is the bottom of the smaller green box. Half of all successful signals have the stock rise 4.5675% which is the end point of the black dotted arrow. One-quarter of all successful signals have the stock rise 8.4275% from the signal closing price which is the top of the smaller green box. The maximum rise on record would see a move to the top of the larger green box. These are the same concepts for the levels in the red boxes as well. The ends/vertical sides of the boxes are determined in a similar fashion. The peak of the rise can occur as soon as the next trading bar after signal close, while the max rise occurs within the limit of study at 50 trading bars after the signal. A 0.4% rise must occur over the next 50 trading bars in order to be considered a success. Three-quarters of successful movement occur after at least 10.0 trading bars; half occur within 27.0 trading bars, and one-quarter require at least 45.0 trading bars. The black dotted arrow represents median historical movement. Medians are a good metric, but they are just one of many I use when forecasting future movement. As always, the stock could decline the very next bar after the signal without looking back (therefore the red boxes would not come into play) or the stock may never decline (and the green boxes may never come into play).
NASDAQ:WDCLong
by StockSignaler
DSONIC, Another Potential Reload??Unlike KRONO which posted quarterly results almost a month ago, DSONIC's results could be coming soon, based on historical Q2 release dates between 24th to 30th Nov. Similarly, DSONIC 's price had also experienced technical correction, and the drop slowed as price approaches support zone. However, beware of #quarter_results_bomb which might cause volatilty in either direction. Bias: Short term bearish, yet moving averages (MA) in bullish formation. Potential entry around 2nd MA, as well as whole number psychological support. Stop-loss: 0.965 // Previous resistance zone could be new support. If this hypothetical support is broken, high chance of stronger bearish correction as 3rd MA is much further away. #QRBombWarning 1st target: 1.18 // Previous high as resistance. May have further bullish potential if resistance if broken. #breakout Gentle reminder: Plan the trade and trade the plan. Trade at your own risk. Stay tune! Guys, if you like the idea, please "like" it, this will be the best thanks. If you have any questions or trading ideas, please post them in comments! Thank you for your support, we appreciate it. We also offer coaching lessons, PM for details. Public Telegram Group : t.me Our Facebook Page: www.facebook.com
MYX:DSONICLong
by ShareWorldConsulting
DAYANG, Buying at correction AND breakout examplesBias: Weakening bull. When prices broke the 2.09 high, the price could not sustain and had another correction but managed to form a higher low around 1.90 region and is likely to further consolidate. Previously, the 1.78-1.80 region presented an oppurtunity for buying at correction while at 1.92 was a #breakoutsignal. Stop-loss: 1.89 // This region is the breakout point of the previous resistance, candlestick lower shadow rejection (higher low), and new swing fibonacci lower level. 1st target: 2.14 // Previous high as MAJOR resistance. 2nd target: 2.38 // Projected target from fibonacci extension. Gentle reminder: Plan the trade and trade the plan. Trade at your own risk. Stay tune! Guys, if you like the idea, please "like" it, this will be the best thanks. If you have any questions or trading ideas, please post them in comments! Thank you for your support, we appreciate it.
DLong
by ShareWorldConsulting