GBPNZD LONG POST ANALYSIS 08/08GBPNZD POST ANALYSIS FROM AUGUST 8TH 2018.
I want to post quality content for the people on TradingView and I believe that one of the most valuable tools is knowledge through experience. In trading there are a lot of failures, trust me. I have made and lost 6 figures in trading. But I have come back from those failures better, stronger, and more consistent than ever. I wanted to share a post-analysis on a trade that I took in August that wasn't posted on TradingView. So lets dive into it.
On this pair I was watching the market conditions on the 4H time frame and I had seen that choppy market conditions were followed by a 100%+ push by the buyers, showing me control and interest in buying this pair. I usually don't give this valuable of information for free but I value everyone's skill and time so I want to mention it. The biggest sign if a trade will be successful or not (in what I've experienced) is the RETEST. It is SO CRUCIAL to watch the re-test because it will explain if this market is truly in the interest of a buyer/seller or if this was a fake momentum move. It's a great way to find more bullet proof trades. If you look at this example the strong push to the upside was followed by another weak, choppy market conditions re-test. This showed me that the buyer who created that push to the upside is in control and not it's a matter of time to wait for the interest to come back on the re-test.
I used recent significant structure on the 4H to build my hypothesis to the fact that if price holds this structure level and I see buyer interest there, then I will look to go long on this pair. As you can see after holding for numerous days buyer displayed his interest again, and the market was taken up into the previous highs and beyond! I wanted to share this example because there is SO MUCH OPPORTUNITY in these markets at all times. It's all about having a plan, staying disciplined, and taking action!
Please like and follow my page for more trades before and after ! Cheers!
p.s. ALWAYS ASK YOURSELF WHO'S STRONGER BUYER OR SELLER? Cheers!
Buyers
USDJPY LONG POST ANALYSIS USDJPY POST ANALYSIS (FROM 8/26)
I had posted a trade on August 26th for a potential long on USDJPY. When looking at this pair I had seen that overall on the Daily time frame it had been an a uptrend. Trading is all about probability so I used the fact that price is more probable, if buyer interest is shown, to go to the upside. The Daily chart had displayed to me that price was failing to break and hold beneath the 110.700 price area. Every trade I approach it as a strategic business decision and this pair had displayed to me that it would be a probable, strategic trade to take advantage of.
After seeing the 100% push by the buyers on the daily (w/momentum) I waited for a pullback to come in and for buyer interest to come back at the 110.700 handle so that the market showed me it was still interested in taking this pair long. Once I had seen that the buyer I was still interested I had entered some positions into the market at the 111.000 handle. This trade ended up hitting both targets for a total of 300 pip trade.
All my setups I post are relatively simple and I always make sure to hold that approach with my trading because with simplicity and consistency it can be very POWERFUL. I also want to bring up the fact that momentum is a key factor in trading whether it is a reversal, fake-out, range, or trend continuation, the 4 market conditions I trade. Discipline is key as well. When trading stay disciplined to proper risk management as well as discipline with your emotions. Trust the process!
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Cheers!
EURAUD POTENTIAL SHORT EURAUD POTENTIAL SHORT
1D Chart:
*on the daily chart price is showing signs of being over-extended based on seller momentum coming in
*price had been rejected at the previous highs leaving a lower low lower close candle for 9/18/18
4H Chart:
* on this time frame chart we have seen that the sellers had come in and caused a large drop in the EURAUD pair
*price has now breached/broken structure at the 1.61500 price area, showing a initial impulse move
*momentum of the seller seems to be stronger than the buyer that is attempting to pull price back into recent significant structure
*watch for strong seller interest at that significant price area on the potential re-test and re-visit of that structure level; this will show us the seller is still interested in this pair and we can look for a decent move to the downside on this pair
Make sure to always have a trading plan when approaching the Forex markets. It can be a game changer when you see your results based on having a strategic business decision versus a hobby like mentality. It is what will take your trading to the next level. Make sure to always implement proper risk management with every trade setup as well. Never risk more than 2% of trading capital per trade.
Keep an eye on this pair! Cheers!
EURUSD WATCH THIS PAIR (POTENTIAL FUTURE SHORT) EURUSD WATCH THIS PAIR
So I have been dealing/battling with this pair for the past month or so, as I think many traders have been. EURUSD on the daily timeframe keeps attempting to break to the upside above structure around 1.17200 but last couple times has been slammed down by the sellers resulting in a fakeout above structure on the 4H around price handle of 1.16500. This pair definitely hasn't been easy to trade but I wanted to post analysis on this for future reference for a future potential short trade opportunity. Based on the fact that the sellers keep pulling it back down in price it's showing me that the sellers do have some interest in shorting this pair. Keep an eye on this pair for a test of 1.16500 recent significant structure and BEFORE we look to sell I'm going to say wait for a break/breach and hold beneath significant structure around the 1.15400 area. This is due to the fact that structure here has been holding very well with good interest from the buyers around this point, so if we're looking to go short we should wait for a break and hold beneath this structure point (so that we have higher probability) on this trade if we have a chance to take it.
I just wanted to post this so everyone can keep their eye out on it and see my outlook for it as well. I have a few other setups I may be posting about this week I just need a little more data to see to be able to make a business decision based on a probable setup. I will keep everyone updated!
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DASHUSD LONG POST ANALYSIS DASHUSD POST ANALYSIS
I had posted a trade idea on DASHUSD on August 27th stating that I believed there was a good potential long opportunity approaching in the market. If you look at the daily time frame on DASHUSD you can see that there was a very strong push by the buyers on August 27th and that had immediately caught my attention. Remember that the #1 sign of REVERSAL is POWER so when you see such a strong push by either a buyer or seller, especially on such a significant time frame KEEP AN EYE OUT, there may be something the market is trying to tell you.
On this trade it was a pretty simple setup. The chart that I'm posting for my post-analysis was the approach I took. Price had just POPPED through structure on the 4H with such strong momentum causing a breach of that structure. I waited to make sure price was going to hold above it so it wasn't a fake-out, and based on the momentum I had a feeling that it was going too. I waited for the pullback back into structure by the sellers, waited for buyer interest again around the 175 levels, I got it and it was good to go from there! Target was hit at 215 price level!
I always make sure to keep all of my trades simple. I approach the market with every trade being a high probable trade setup and also a business decision. I decided that this pair was at a good price along with momentum and I decided to take the opportunity. Remember that everybody is different in trading. My style might not fit your style but I hope it can add some value to your trading!
Please like and follow my page to get more trade ideas here on TradingView! Cheers! On to the next one!
ETHUSD LONG POST ANALYSISETHUSD POST ANALYSIS
On August 27th I had made a post stating that I was looking to potentially go long ETHUSD. I had made this decision based on the fact that ETHUSD had been holding recent significant structure on the 4H chart as well as forming a nice squeeze of price on the 1H chart. Momentum is a great tool to use to be able to find high probability trade setups and it allows yourself to be truly selective with what you decide to trade. Little side note, think of it like this, when you see momentum think of it as INTEREST by a buyer or seller. Since we are all retail traders, maybe some of you are institutional but regardless nobody knows for sure whats going to happen next, we want to be trading WITH whoever moves the market. Waiting for momentum and/or interest in our setups allows us to see what they see. Think of it like that. The market is a RECEIPT of the transactions that have already occurred. OK back to the trade.
On the 1H timeframe I had seen that price was squeezing creating a descending trend line on the 1H timeframe. When I was analyzing the chart price action had showed me a very nice and healthy strong break above this descending trend line (showing me interest). This had caught my attention and led me to believe there may be a high probable setup to go long, so I waited. What did I wait for ? The re-test. The #1 sign AFTER you see strong momentum whether it is true or not. The pullback was very weak by the sellers confirming my bias on potential long opportunity. I waiting for price to come into recent significant 1H structure as well as wait for buyer INTEREST AGAIN, to confirm my final thoughts, and then the trade had made a nice strong push to the 294 price level, recent significant 4H structure. This trade held a good risk/reward ratio as well which is important for statistical probability in trading.
I really try to make these setups simple for everybody and I hope they're helping you out! Please like and follow me on TradingView for more trade posts and ideas! On to the next one!
Cheers!
PGNX TRADE UPDATE POTENTIAL LONG PGNX POTENTIAL LONG
I had made a post on August 28th for a potential long opportunity on this pair. After letting the market play out for a few days it has given me a better structural trade and better looking potential long opportunity for what I like to trade. This pair had made a strong push from the $7.30 price area to the $9.30 price area back in late July to late August. This strong push had been a point of interest for me due to the fact that momentum is a big tell on what the market may potentially do and where it could potentially go, so I waited to see what the pullback entailed. Always remember trading is about probability, nobody could for sure 100% guarantee what the market is going to do next so it's our duty as traders to only trade setups that have a good probability to go in the favor we have analyzed it too. So here is my next thought for this pair.
1D Chart:
*on this time frame chart it had displayed a very strong and healthy push by the buyers back in late July and early into August
*the momentum of the push had been a strong buyer momentum push showing strong interest
*the pullback on the 1D chart by the sellers had been clearly weaker than the push to the upside (better probability)
*once this pair had pulled back almost 100% you can see it started to form an ascending trend line with interest from the buyer
4H Chart:
*on this time frame chart it shows how once the pullback had occurred the buyers started to take interest again by forming an ascending trend line with stronger momentum on the buyer side
*this displays the fact that the buyer may most definitely be still interested in purchasing this pair (now at 100% discount from peak)
*watch how price reacts at this ascending trend line and look for strong buyer interest again at the trend line
Based on the setup of this trade, I dont usually give stop losses because risk is different for every trader, but if price hits 7.50/7.10 price level I would hold off on looking to go long on this pair. But aside from that as long as its above that price and we see that strong buyer interest again look for this stock to make a nice push to the upside.
Remember ALWAYS have a trading plan when approaching the markets. You never want to come into the market unprepared because it will take your $ every single time! ALWAYS make sure to also implement proper risk management never risking more than 2% of trading capital as well as a good risk/reward ratio to make your trades more statistically probable for profit.
Cheers! Keep an eye out !
Can CAC40 Breakout?The French shares have been moving higher so we believe this may be a breakout overpowering the sellers at around the 5505 area and continue to an upward trend and benefit our trade.
However it does appear that price is moving in to a triangle trend line so price may get squeezed by the pressure of the Bulls and the Bears before the CAC 40 Breakout is achieved.
DASH/USD POTENTIAL LONG DASH/DOLLAR POTENTIAL LONG
If you look at this cryptocurrency pair you can see that recently there has been some very strong buyer interest from the 137 price area, causing price to have a strong upward spike in the last 24 hours. This shows me that the buyer is very interested in this pair and we have a higher probable chance of this pair rising to the upside. IF this pair breaks the 130 price handle you DO NOT want to be looking to buy this pair.
I haven't been able to formulate a strategic plan for a potential long on this pair yet. I just wanted to send our an early post to be able to show people there may be potential buying opportunity here. Once future price action allows me to be able to effectively formulate a trading plan for this pair I will definitely be posting it!
Cheers! Keep an eye out !
ETHEREUM/DOLLAR POTENTIAL LONGETH/USD POTENTIAL LONG
4H Chart:
*the 4H timeframe chart is displaying ETH breaking out of a triangle pattern that it had been holding for 5 days or so
*the momentum of the 4H candle is showing me that this break above the descending trend line and break out of the triangle is a legit momentum break
*watch and make sure price holds above that trend line and wait for buyer strength of interest after a pullback into the 275 price area
1H Chart:
*on this timeframe it had clearly displayed a strong buyer momementum break above the descending trendline
*use this chart to gauge and make sure price holds above so its not a fakeout and look for strong buyer interest on re-test of recent significant 1H structure around 275 price area
REMEMBER TO ALWAYS HAVE A TRADING PLAN WHEN APPROACHING THE MARKETS. STAY DISCPLINED WITH THE PLAN AND IMPLEMENT PROPER RISK WITH EACH TRADE SETUP. CHEERS!
LETS WATCH AND MAKE SURE IT HOLDS, WATCH FOR BUYER MOMENTUM/INTEREST TO COME IN ON RE-TEST OF STRUCTURE AND BUILD A PLAN FROM THERE IF POTENTIALLY GOING LONG!
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EURUSD WATCH THIS PAIR! EURUSD ANALYSIS
So on the EURUSD we have had some interesting action happening in the past couple weeks. If you look on the weekly chart of this pair you will see we made a nice head and shoulders and about 2 weeks ago the right shoulder (where it is now) had breached to the downside and broke recent significant structure on the daily timeframe. What we saw last week was some decent strength from the buyers come in and pull price back and above that structure level of 1.15500 area. I didn't like how this looked so im posting this analysis because before that had happened I was on the short side bias for this pair, and I think it could still be a possibility of happening. BUT we need to see that seller interest come back in and play a role in this downside momentum. So lets break it down.
1D Chart:
*on this timeframe you can see that price broke recent significant structure at 1.15500 level
*did price hold? not very well. Due to this fact we want to just be watching this pair on the daily timeframe at this moment.
*if you look at the daily chart you will see that ther IS descending trend line that has been holding since beginning of June
*watch this pair once it comes into that descending trend line and if we start to see some signs of buyers dying out and strong sellers coming in, we may have some probability and sentiment to support a short on this pair
*there is also significant structure at 1.17500, watch this level too in case EU tries a fakeout above the trendline
4H Chart:
*on this chart it will give us a better idea of the momentum going on on the smaller scale
*this chart still represents a good amount of data but gives us a little better look into the buyers and sellers strength
*watch this chart for buyers to die out and strong seller strength to come in
ALWAYS have a trading plan when approaching the markets. Stay disciplined to this plan and make sure to always use proper risk. Never risk more than 2% of trading capital per trade and make sure you have a back-tested systematic approach in which you apply to the markets. If you come un-prepared then the markets will own you.
Cheers! Keep your eyes out !
AUDUSD SHORT ACTIVE/POST ANALYSIS AUDUSD SHORT 8/12/18
1D Chart:
* On this daily chart AUDUSD had made a strong breach below structure that had been holding around the .73400-.73600 handle
*the momentum shown by this pair was strong by the sellers on the break below structure
4H Chart:
*On the 4H chart the pullback into structure had been weaker by the buyers than the strength of the breach done by the seller to the downside
1H Chart:
* On this time frame chart it had shown that when price had pulled into that significant structure point the seller had started to create a lower high sequence on the 1H timeframe chart; which had showed their interest in this pair.
*On the 1H there had been a strong bearish candle giving a good opportunity for a sell
* The trade was performing very well once it hit the .72400 level after over 100+ pips of downfall there had been a strong reaction by the buyers come into play. This could have been due to many factors. In my opinion was caused by USD weakness.
Keep an eye out on this pair. My trade on this is still active with my stop loss for 50% of position in profit and other 50% with stop loss at .73840. Lets keep watching to see just how strong the seller/buyers are!
Cheers!
BTCUSD LONG POST ANALYSIS BTCUSD LONG 8/11/18
On August 11th I had made a post on analysis for a potential long opportunity on BITCOIN/DOLLAR. I had based my analysis on the momentum that was shown by the buyer on the 1H Time frame chart. The momentum showed me that the buyer was interested in this pair around the 6200 price level. Whenever you see such strong interest in a financial instrument its something to take a minute to look at.
The #1 sign of a reversal is POWER. So anytime I see a very clear distinct sign of some true POWER or strength from a buyer or seller I look for what opportunity it may bring about. This pair was sitting at a recent significant structure around the 6200 level. I saw the very strong push by the buyer on the 1H chart time frame. Even though BITCOIN has been in a downtrend since December of last year, it doesn't mean there are shorter term opportunities to go long.
Based on the momentum on the 1H time frame chart and the momentum of the pullback I had decided to look for a long opportunity in this pair. NOW I usually don't give this good of a tip for free but I appreciate everyone who supports me on here so here it is; WHENEVER THERE IS A SIGN OF A REVERSAL TO GO IN THE OTHER DIRECTION ALWAYS LOOK FOR A POTENTIAL FAKEOUT TO THE UPSIDE/DOWNSIDE BEFORE A REVERSAL OCCURS. As you can see with this pair there was a fakeout below that strong buyer before this pair had decided to rollover.
Once this had happened BITCOIN went on the hit all 3 targets from 6580, 6700, and finally hitting 6900 level on August 22nd (my birthday;). Price was holding structure at the 6200 very well for over a week giving multiple opportunities, if taken, to get in this trade. For everybody that did then cheers! On to the next one.
Cheers! Please like and follow me for further analysis!
USDCAD POTENTIAL LONGUSDCAD POTENTIAL LONG
1D Chart:
*Daily timeframe chart is in a strong uptrend, if you look left to price 1.29600 you can see the interest and strength of the buyer that caused the market to rise 400 standard pips (heavy volume move)
*1D candle is going to be a higher high higher close (bullish engulfing) above previous day candle
4H Chart:
*4 hour chart is showing that the buyer is still interested due to the fact they spiked the market causing a 100%+ rest from the previous sellers move(s)
*Momentum is way stronger on the buyer side, the buyers are displaying that they're still interested in buying this currency
*100%+ rest = Aggresive V-formation
1H Chart:
*1H chart is displaying the same momentum and a staggering strength on the buyer side taking out all sellers from the past couple days of seller price action
*Past week of seller action taken out by few hours of buyer strength
Entry: Look to enter around structure at 1.30300 handle. This is a recent level of significant structure
Stop Loss: Look to keep stop loss below the strong buyer at 1.29600. If it were to break this level we wouldn't want to be looking to buy
Target 1: 1.31200
Target 2: 1.31900
Target 3: 1.32800
Make sure to never risk more than 2% of account value as well as keeping a good risk/reward with all trades.
Cheers!
Where to buy Bitcoin? There was a volume accumulation area right before a strong buying activity on Bitcoin. I think that a lot of buying positions were accumulated there because of the bullish activity that came after the accumulation. Now i wait for this small long correction up. I think this is a pretty solid level to go long from because of all the reasons mentioned above.
Short Sell then Strong BuyOn the 4HR time frame we see the market testing the top resistance-zone twice right after a strong rally upwards in price. After the second test of the resistance-zone we see so many buys that no one else is selling so the sellers jump in and give it a strong rally downwards creating a fake out right before a huge pullback straight through the top resistance-zone. This tells me the buyers are strong and waiting for an opportunity to take this market higher. Next we see a short sell of about 30% hitting a support and then pulling back and re-testing the upper resistance. At the moment the market seems to be making another short sell and if the buyers are still waiting to jump back in (which they seem like they are) it's going to be at the middle resistance line (at a 30% discount) where they'll jump in and boost the market to higher highs. A perfect time to Buy, and a strong one at that. If the markets don't rally up as strong as anticipated then there are possible exits between 111.000 and 111.500.
Sellers Control LITECOINThe interesting moves on LTCUSD H1 chart. There was strong bullish move (green long bar) few hours ago, but it was rejected by bears and pushed the price down. It means, there was the shift of powers from buyers to sellers. The price is going down last few hours and it means the sellers control the price at the moment. There is a major resistance level at 192; the price respected multiple times and it is more likely it will do it again. The LTCUSD already bounced backed after touching that level. I expect the price will continue going down and maintain its bearish momentum.
iML TV TradeHouse NFP Price Projection Bullish AUDUSDAUDUSD Price Projection for Non Farm Payrolls March 9 2018
DXY Signaling Possibility of a Bearish Push later in the week and NFP would be the best way to push price towards expected bullish target level at .79200
Potential 20 pip Buy Zone at 0.766 - 0.764 with a comfortable stop loss beyond 0.762 (consider your broker spread etc)
Intraday trend of AUDUSD is currently Bearish.. but we will see how the story of this chart evolves during the week!
Key Fundamentals that I believe influence the movement of this trade idea are as follows:
EST TIMEZONE
Tuesday March 6
4:35pm AUD RBA Gov Lowe Speaks
5:30pm USD FOMC Member Brainard Speaks
7:30pm AUD GDP q/q
Wednesday March 7
8:15am USD ADP Non-Farm Employment Change
8:20am USD FOMC Member Dudley Speaks
10:30am USD Crude Oil Inventories
7:30pm AUD Trade Balance
Friday March 9 @ 8:30am
USD Average Hourly Earnings m/m
USD Non-Farm Employment Change
USD Unemployment Rate
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Bitcoin: BTCUSD Running on Empty - needs buyers - don't followBitcoin: BTCUSD So far only Corrective/Continuation Running on Empty
Bitcoin has at least rallied from the double bottom fake-out low this morning in London but the rally has been feeble so far.
Since the low it's formed another little parallel with a bearish upslope, though it does at least have a few pin bars forming
off the lower parallel, showing some interest at lower levels.Any green bars quickly hit as the upper parallel is hit as
Bitcoin lies trapped in a narrow range too tight to trade even by day-traders now as mean spreads stop the thing almost
dead as this is written. It should still grind higher but this is ridiculous now. WTF at 7178? If long be careful, unless we see
some green bars emerge soon this is going to fail again. Get out on a break below lower parallel or on test of 7274 if it
stays above the parallel from now for 200 points profit if we see it. Only a big green candle is going to save Bitcoin now... It's back in the balance...it really needs a push here. And if it does now fall out of the parallel it's probably time for day
traders to start selling too, initially back to 7070-7060 and then harder still if 7050 gives way back to critical support at
6960-6930. As before, this range is last-gasp support for Bitcoin. Any fall below 6900 should be followed by swing
traders not too burned by yesterday's debacle, with a stop just above 6960 for a collapse back to 6312 at least and
potentially to 6165.