Get started

Buyeurusd

EURUSD escalating tensions between the EU and ItalyEURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1487 Key Resistance: 1.1487 - 1.1522 - 1.1540 - 1.1558 Key Support: 1.1460 - 1.1435 - 1.1412 - 1.1396 Day Trading Range: 1.1420 - 1.1535 Technical Indicator: RSI: The RSI shows mixed bearish trend ahead. Moving Average: SMA 100 (1.1506) & SMA 50 (1.1499) both are strong resistance for EURUSD today. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1487 with targets at 1.1512 & 1.1536 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.1487 look for further downside with 1.1458 & 1.1434 as targets. Fundamental: Italian Risk Continue: “Italian Deputy PM Salvini yesterday met with far-right former French presidential candidate Marie Le Pen, where the two publicly agreed that ‘dancing-man’ Juncker is the “real enemy” of Europe: perhaps that’s why the guy was shuffling from side to side in public, to make himself a harder target for populists?” “With the Italian bond and stock market making its own negative judgement on the Italian desire not to have to embrace Teutonic hair-shirt fiscal policy in a febrile socio-economic environment, Salvini added “If one had evil thoughts, he would think there are people betting on the spread because they don’t want Italy to grow and create jobs.” And there was also little sign of any retreat or surrender to the bond market or the European Commission: “We will not backtrack, we will not backtrack,” Salvini insisted, adding that “Speculators acting like Soros are betting on Italy’s collapse to buy at discount prices the healthy companies, and there are many of them, that have remained in this country.” The EURUSD closes yesterday on bearish note yesterday owning to high level of dovish pressure on common currency influenced by escalating tensions between the EU and Italy, over the budget approved a couple of weeks ago. European equities collapsed to multi-month lows on Monday, with banking-related equities leading the slump, as Italian government bond yields surged to over 4-year highs, with Italian Salvini pointing a finger on Brussels for the bonds’ sell-off and Deputy PM Di Maio claiming that anti-austerity views will grow stronger across the continent, meanwhile the pair hit a new 6-week low at 1.1459 during yesterday’s market hours. The EUR/USD is trading flat and steady in early Tuesday action just shy of the 1.15 handle as the pair holds close to near-term lows. Italy headlines remain a drag on the EUR, with Italian bonds continuing to under perform against their major benchmark peers as political confidence crumbles, and the downside pull of the Italian government’s budget concerns is poorly timed, with broader markets already suffering a lack of confidence at the hands of rising US Treasury bond yields and increasing discomfort surrounding global trade, and this week could see the EUR/USD take a further haircut. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
EURO under pressure from higher interest rateEURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1516 (CMP 1.1499) Key Resistance: 1.1520 - 1.1540 - 1.1558 - 1.1580 - 1.1610 Key Support: 1.1491 - 1.1476 - 1.1448 - 1.1428 - 1.1410 Technical Indicator: RSI: Indicator shows mixed bearish trend ahead. Moving Average: SMA 50 (1.1510) & SMA 100 (1.1522) strong resistance for EURUSD today. Technical Trade View: Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1500 with targets at 1.1530 & 1.1560 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.1500 look for further downside with 1.1476 & 1.1450 as targets. Fundamental: EURUSD bulls have managed to hold support, next, they are likely to start thinking of increasing the buying and trying to push the euro higher. It may not be an easy task against the dollar which has been getting a lot of support from the Fed, of late. We have seen the dollar being well supported as the Fed has been hiking rates as per schedule and as per expectations of the market which has only increased its status as being one of the most stable currencies around, to invest in during times of crisis. This has been the case with the dollar for long but that feeling has only increased in recent times. The dollar has been further supported by the talk from the Fed Chief Powell who has made it clear that the rate hike cycle is not close to its end as yet and this has only further boosted the dollar. Under these circumstances, it is to the credit of the euro bulls that they have managed to hold the support region around 1.15 but the move higher is only going to get more and more difficult in the days ahead. The economic news on the calendar is pretty much limited as of today and hence we can expect the euro to consolidate and range for most of the day. Chinese equities took a big hit after traders returned from a week-long holiday. Efforts by the People’s Bank of China to free more than $100 billion in liquidity through cutting the reserve requirement ratio were not enough to offset the fear of slowing growth, the escalated trade dispute, and the rise in U.S. interest rates. The CSI 300 fell 3.6% late morning led by the technology sector as investors had the chance to respond to reports claiming that Chinese intelligence agents planted microchips to hack big tech firms and U.S. government agencies. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
EURO looking ahead US NFP TodayEURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1490 Key Resistance: 1.1520 - 1.1545 - 1.1568 - 1.1590 Key Support: 1.1490 - 1.1455 - 1.1532 - 1.1512 Day Trading Range: 1.1440 - 1.1560 Technical Indicator: RSI: Indicator shows mixed bearish trend. Moving Average: SMA 50(1.1511) & SMA 100(1.1539) strong resistance for pair today. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1490 with targets at 1.1522 & 1.1548 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.1490 look for further downside with 1.1450 & 1.1422 as targets. Fundamental: Concerns on Italian politics eased somewhat on Thursday and allowed spot to rebound from recent lows in the 1.1460 region. In addition, news citing the ECB was discussing its reinvestment policy also lent some support to the single currency. However, the bull run met strong resistance in the 1.1540/45 band, forcing the pair to recede to the current 1.1500 zone. In the meantime, spot is expected to remain under pressure amidst rising US yields while further range bound should be seen ahead of the release of US Non-farm Payrolls for the month of September. Earlier in the session, German Factory Orders expanded 2.0% MoM during August, surpassing estimates. In addition, Producer Prices rose more than expected 0.3% inter-month during the same period and 3.1% on a yearly basis. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
EURUSD comes under further pressure and navigate the 1.1480 areaEURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1530 (CMP 1.1584) Day Trading Range: 1.1535 - 1.1420 Key Resistance: 1.1498 - 1.1520 - 1.1535 - 1.1555 Key Support: 1.1465 - 1.1440 - 1.1408 - 1.1388 Technical Indicator: RSI: The indicator having hidden bullish divergence but still moving below 50 level. Moving Average: SMA 50 (1.1530) & SMA 100 (1.1562) strong resistance for EURUSD today. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: short positions below 1.1518 with targets at 1.1460 & 1.1410 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 1.1518 look for further upside with 1.1565 & 1.1595 as targets. Fundamental: This helped the dollar to gain some strength over the last few months and just when we were thinking that the bulls were getting tired and that we could see a reversal in the fortunes of the dollar, we are seeing another boost being given to the dollar by the Fed Chief Powell. His speech was scheduled late in the day yesterday and though not much was expected from it and the impact from that was expected to be minimal, it was anything but that. He said that the interest rates were still accommodating and made it very clear that further interest rate hikes could be along the way in the coming months. What we are looking at now is some serious strength in the dollar with some strong support from the Fed, which was quite unexpected as far as the market is concerned. The Fed under the new Chief Powell seems to be doing a good job of speaking its mind and giving some clear messages to the market and it had followed the path that it had laid out for itself at the beginning of the year. Looking ahead, there are no scheduled events in Euroland, whereas September’s Factory Orders, the usual weekly report on the labour market and Challenger Job Cuts are all due across the pond. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
Battle for the bulls and the bears for control of EURUSD EURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1538 (CMP 1.1573) Key Support: 1.1555 - 1.1532 - 1.1510 - 1.1490 Key Resistance: 1.1588 - 1.1612 - 1.1628 - 1.1645 Day Trading Range: 1.1628 - 1.1490 Technical Indicator: Moving Average: SMA 50 (1.1566) strong support & SMA 100 (1.1603) strong resistance for the day. RSI: The indicator shows bullish divergence for the day. Technical Trade View: Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1538 with targets at 1.1610 & 1.1645 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.1538 look for further downside with 1.1510 & 1.1488 as targets. Fundamental: After bottoming out in the boundaries of the 1.15000 neighborhood in the first half of the week, the pair seems to have recovered some attention and is now up around a cent since those lows. However, Italian politics remains a hot topic for the time being, with the budget deficit still in centre stage. It is worth mentioning that the official budget submission to the EU will be on October 15. In addition, some renewed weakness around the greenback is also bolstering the corrective up move in the pair. Looking ahead, final September Services PMIs in Euroland is due next seconded by EMU’s Retail Sales. Across the pond, the labour market will come to the fore in light of the release of the ADP report, while the key ISM Non-manufacturing will also grab attention. Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte has called a budget meeting with his ministers to go over Italy's budget discussions further, as holiday-impinged markets tread on the volatile side on reaction to Euro-centric headlines. Key highlights Conte will be meeting with select members of his cabinet as they look for more ways to squeeze some wiggle room out of the European nation's books, with headlines on Tuesday sending the EUR lower after Italy decided to stick to their guns and plan for a 2.4% budget deficit in fiscal year 2019, bringing Italy's budget deficit beyond the 2% target set out under EU guidelines. Conte and his posse have attempted to smooth over frictions in markets regarding Italy's budget, promising to reduce Italy's deficit to 2.2% in fiscal year 2020 and dropping it further to the 2.0% barrier by FY 2021, but these proposals lie several years down the road, and traders will be keeping a close eye on the Italian bond yields this week, bearing in mind that the previous government was targeting a deficit of just 0.6% in 2019. The region around 1.15 is likely to be the key and this would be the region of battle for the bulls and the bears for control of this pair and there is likely to be a lot of stops below this. Any break below this region would trigger these stops and would accelerate the move lower and then the bears would be in control. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
Today EURUSD eye on Fed Chair Powell SpeaksEURUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: 1.1594 Key Resistance: 1.1568 - 1.1594 - 1.1622 - 1.1645 Key Support: 1.1522 - 1.1498 - 1.1465 - 1.1445 Day Trading Range: 1.1622 - 1.1498 Technical Indicator: Moving Average: SMA 50 (1.1593) & SMA 200 (1.1653) strong resistance for EURUSD today. RSI: The indicator moving oversold level below 30, soon it will go up side Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: short @ 1.1594 with targets @ 1.1535 & 1.1512 in extension. Alternative scenario: above 1.1594 look for further upside with 1.1622 & 1.1658 as targets. Fundamental: The euro countries' eco. calendar is pretty light with EU PPI being the only data due out. However, we have ECB Galhau speaking in Paris at 14:30GMT. There is EU Eco. and Financial Affairs Council meeting (ECOFIN) today which starts at 09:00GMT and ECB VP de Guindos will participate. The Euro is inching lower against the U.S. Dollar early Tuesday after plunging 0.22% on Monday. Pressing the single currency were renewed concerns about Italy’s budget deficit. According to reports, Italian Deputy Prime Minister Luigi Di Maio accused European Union officials of deliberately upsetting financial markets with negative comments about Italy’s budget plans. He was essentially firing a shot at European Economic Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici, who earlier in the session said that Rome’s plans were “obviously” deviating from EU rules on fiscal discipline. The markets opened on Monday to the news that the United States, Mexico and Canada managed to agree on a new deal. The new trade deal replaces the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and is now called the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) deal. The deal is said to give greater access to the U.S to Canadian dairy markets in return for allowing extra imports of Canadian cars. Economic data from the U.S. was slightly. Construction spending was seen rising less than expected August. Official data showed that spending on construction rose just 0.1% in August on a month over month basis. The ISM’s manufacturing PMI showed the index easing to 59.8 in August compared to 61.3 in July. The data also missed estimates of 60.1. However, the USD managed to close on a high note, maintaining the gains from last Friday. The day ahead will be marked by the RBA’s monetary policy meeting. No changes are expected to the interest rate which stands at 1.50%. The European trading session is relatively quiet. Spain will be releasing its unemployment change followed by the construction PMI data from the UK. The median estimates put the activity in the construction sector to ease slightly to 52.8 from 52.9. Later in the evening, the NY trading session will see the Fed chair, Jerome Powell speaking. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Short
by yoCryptoManic
EURUSD After ECB Holds, Italy to Come Back into Focus for EuroTechnical Overview: Weekly Pivot: 1.1581 Weekly Resistance: 1.1631 - 1.1663 - 1.1713 - 1.1765 - 1.1790 Weekly Support: 1.1531 - 1.1501 - 1.1449 - 1.1420 - 1.1369 Technical Indicators: MACD: MacD starting for more down side moment & show volume for seller side. RSI: The indicator moving below 50 level, means more downward movement. Moving Avg: SMA55 (1.1612) & SMA200 (1.1569) strong support for EURUSD. Fundamental: The most important news for EURUSD are following: >> The European Central Bank continues to aim for ending its QE program in December, then raising rates by the end of “summer 2019”, citing “receding” uncertainty around its inflation outlook. >> Any goodwill provided by the ECB’s confidence in its policy path was quickly erased by Friday as concerns over the Italian government’s upcoming budget resurfaced. Price action at the end of the week was revealing in a number of ways. The European Central Bank is sticking to its preset policy course as uncertainty around its inflation forecasts is receding, and that’s certainly good news for the Euro given the swirling concern about potential contagion from the Turkish Lira meltdown. But with Italy back in the news, any goodwill injected into the Euro from the recent policy decision was quickly neutralized. Mario Nava, the head Italian stock market regulator, abruptly resigned at the end of last week amid mounting pressure from the governing Five Star Movement and Northern League citing an “issue that is only political.” As a standalone development, the resignation is meaningless; however, in context of a pattern of increasingly harsh anti-EU and anti-Euro rhetoric, market participants pushed up Italian bond yields and reined the Euro back in from its post-ECB meeting highs. Now, attention is on the upcoming Italian government budget and whether or not a showdown with Brussels is a fait accompli – particularly if technocrat Giovanni Tria, the Minister of Economy and Finances, is similarly pressured out of his job. Beyond rising concerns over Italy effectively neutralizing dropping concerns over the ECB’s inflation outlook, the economic calendar should only impact the Euro in a minor fashion. Next Week, Tuesday & Wednesday ECB President Draghi Speech is very important for EURO future. Thanks YoCryptoManic
by yoCryptoManic
European Session EURUSD, Still in RangeEURUSD Technical Overview: Day Trading Range: 1.1570 - 1.1730. Pivot: 1.1615 Key Resistance: 1.1655 - 1.1682 - 1.1732 Key Support: 1.1605 - 1.1565 - 1.1520 Technical Trade Idea Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1.1615 with targets at 1.1660 & 1.1675 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1.1615 look for further downside with 1.1595 & 1.1570 as targets. Technical Indicators: MACD: Indicator shows upside momentum. Moving Avg: SMA100 (1.1560) & SMA200 (1.1583), strong support for today. Fundamentals: Falling Spread Between German and Italian Bonds Boost EURO in Broad Market Besides the ongoing Italian budget noise, it’s pretty quiet going in terms of local drivers for the EUR and Investors seem to have put off chasing any ECB policy normalization story. However, there is little out there that supports the case for long euro, albeit there have been some less negative wires on the political front with respect to Italy and Brexit updates and there have not been any EM nor fresh trade headlines to sink the dollar’s peers so far this week. US Greenback lost some ground on recovering momentum in EURO & GBP however skittish emerging market currencies helped limit the greenback’s retreat. The dollar may have pulled back from two-week highs but it is expected to stay well supported in the longer term, continuing to garner safe haven bids in the wake of weakness in emerging market currencies. On release front, today’s European calendar remains silent however macro data across key European markets were dovish yesterday while US Trade balance was well in line with expectations. Today’s market hours will see release of ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Crude Oil Inventory and ADP Non-Farm employment change data and a hawkish outcome in same could help USD gain upper hand against the shared currency. Thanks YoCryptoManic
Long
by yoCryptoManic
EURUSD potential 2618 trade setup on 4H chartWe are already in the killzone to buy here at market prices. The orignal idea and setup was to buy at the 61.8 which would have been the aggressive option. But looking at the sharp reversal from recent highs, particulary visible on the weekly and daily chart I would suggest a more conservative entry here. It was worth the waiting as we have blown way past the 61.8% retracement. Right now we have a splendid risk/reward profile and I would be a buyer if we get a double bottom on the hourly time frame and then a higher high higher close candle. I expect this will lower the R/R but at least it leaves one more comfortable. On the other hand, those who reduce their stops after a double bottom could increase their R/R instead.
Long
by PHL