EUR/GBPFundamentals:- The trade war between the US and China will put pressure on the EURO as it imports a lot of goods from China. The GBP has been hit hard with Mark CArneys comments after the rate rise but a good average earnings figure and y/y CPI next week could change the path.
Technicals:- I am looking for a pull back on the recent sell off to the psychological number of 9000 where we can expect a reasonable sell off to the 8700 area.
Buygbp
Long GBP/USDFundamentals:- We are taking a short term Fundamental view on the GBP/USD at the moment. The USD has gone from strength to strength for many months now; every so often it will produce a pull back and some profit taking. The short term data has been a little worse than expected and with the MPC changing its interest rate vote recently we could see a continuation of the GBP strength, at least for the short term.
Technicals:- As you can see from the 1 hour chart we are hovering around an area where there is plenty of support and resistance levels. The recent push up is a sign of buyers coming back into the market, however at an over bought price on the 1 hour chart and current resistance would suggest a slight pull back in its upward path. there is a nice stepping upward pattern on the 1 hour and 30 minute chart as in the pic below
I would expect a poke at the bottom line and a fake breakout as the week draws towards the NFP figures at the end of the week. Overall a retest of the 13330 on short term sentiment is a strong possibility which I intent to profit from
buy limit:- 13177
stop loss:- 13107
take profit:- 13340
EUR/GBPFundamentals:- After a failed trade on this currency pair today we still believe the downside is imminent. Why? After a subdued super Thursday from the BOE and no change in either rate hike or votes by the MPC. Mark Carney later said in an interview with the BBC that it was likely rates would rise before the end of this year. With the outlook for Europe pushing possible rate hikes back to 2019 I would expect the GBP to gain the edge over the Euro in the coming days.
Technicals:- After the rate decision from the BOE the price pulled back to a previous resistance level. You could take this trade at market or wait for it to retest the high on the 4th of may. The stochastic is now overbought and sellers are trying to push the price down from this level.
Long GBP/USDFundamentals:- As the alternative scenario from our original trade plan looks to be playing out we are now looking to trade the GBP/USD as a long position. The retail sales figures as expected where better than previous but no real shock to the market. This means that the GBP could still be adding value based on the rising wage forecast tomorrow.
Technicals:- After the break above 14300 I am now looking for a pull back to that area for a buy entry. targeting the next resistance level. Get the full analysis entry levels, stop loss and take profit on the my main website boafx
LONG GBP/JPYLooking to buy the GBP/JPY this morning as the CPI y/y figure is expected to show an increase in inflation which could bring forward the expectation of an interest rate hike from the BoE. On the other side of the trade the JPY is particularly weak at the moment with a poor Prelim GDP reading on Sunday evening and expected intervention from the BoJ in the FX market to keep their currency weak in order to aid exports; which in turn should help bolster the economy. there is alos talk of a a further rate cut from the BoJ.