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Gold continue to pay attention to several things at onceXAUUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: $1205.20 Day Trading Range: $1200.00 - $1218.50 Key Resistance: $1210.66 - $1214.59 - $1217.33 - $1221.20 Key Support: $1205.20 - $1203.25 - $1200.00 - $1196.28 Technical Indicators: RSI: Indicator lacks downside momentum, moving around 64 level. Moving Average: SMA 20($1203.63) & SMA 55($1200.71) strong support for Gold. Technical Trade Idea: Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1205.20 with targets at 1212.45 & 1215.38 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1205.20 look for further downside with 1203.25 & 1199.89 as targets Overall, Gold continue to pay attention to several things at once, as there are fears about the trade war, questions about whether the Federal Reserve will be able to raise interest rates in that environment, and then of course a lot of fear in the emerging markets. This has made the precious metals sector very difficult to trade at times, if you are looking at short-term charts. However, all one has to do is zoom out to the longer-term charts and recognize that we are in a major downtrend. This isn’t to say the gold can’t rally, most certainly can and it has. However there are levels where we see a lot of resistance previously. This is seen just above at the $1215 level, which should be a bit of a challenge to get above. That’s not to say that we can’t break above there, but we need some help from the US dollar. Thanks YoCryptoManic
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by yoCryptoManic
XAUUSD completed Bull Flag, Looking For Rally $1218XAUUSD Technical Overview: Pivot: $1202.25 Key Resistance: $1208.45 - $1212.00 - $1217.89 - $1222.24 Key Support: $1202.25 - $1198.45 - $1195.55 - $1192.00 Technical Indicator: Chart Pattern: Bullish Flag Completed, looking for upside direction. RSI: Indicator shows upside bias. MACD: MacD having upside momentum. Moving Avg: SMA100 ($1199.02) & SMA55 ($1198.27) strong support for Gold. Technical Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1202.25 with targets at 1208.50 & 1212.50 in extension. Technical Alternative scenario: below 1202.25 look for further downside with 1198.00 & 1192.50 as targets. Fundamental: Gold markets were very noisy during trading on Wednesday, as we continue to see a lot of volatility around the world. The US dollar got a bit of a beating during the day as James Bullard suggested that an inverted yield curve could cause a recession. Everybody on Wall Street knows that, except for currency traders it seems. However, at the end of the day the Gold markets continue to face a lot of selling pressure due to the US dollar strength longer-term. There have been a lot of concern with emerging markets, and that should continue to be the case. I also recognize that we are a bit range bound, although I think there is some upward pressure to be found eventually. If we do break above the $1208 level, that would be a good sign. In the meantime, I think that rallies are selling opportunities on signs of exhaustion, as gold simply can’t seem to get its act together longer-term. Thanks YoCryptoManic
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by yoCryptoManic
6
Europeand Session Yellow Metal Bullish Flag ?XAUUSD Technical Overview: Day Trading Range: $1186 - $1208 Pivot: 1195.00 Key Resistance: $1204.45 - $1212.00 - $1218.85 Key Support: $1195.45 - $1188.45 - $1182.00 Technical Trading Idea: Most Likely Scenario: long positions above 1195.00 with targets at 1201.00 & 1204.00 in extension. Alternative scenario: below 1195.00 look for further downside with 1193.00 & 1189.50 as targets. Technical Indicator: MACD: MacD advocates for further upside. Moving Avg: SMA100 ($1194.63) strong support $ SMA200 ($1205.79) strong resistance for the day. Fundamentals: Gold markets rally during the trading session on Wednesday as it was reported that the UK and Germany were possibly coming together a bit on the Brexit negotiations, and this of course in the EUR/USD pair in the GBP/USD pair higher. In other words, drove down the value of the US dollar which of course is good for gold overall. With that being the case, the market looks very likely to test the $1205 level. If we can get above that level, it could free the market to go to the $1210 level next. In the meantime though, I would expect a lot of volatility, and just as much selling pressure as buying, as the markets are very erratic in general. I would trade this market in five dollar ranges, going back and forth to keep your P&L safe. If we do break down below the $1200 level, I think somewhere near the 1196 level there should be some buying support. Today’s market hours will see release of ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, Crude Oil Inventory and ADP Non-Farm employment change data and a hawkish outcome in same could help USD gain upper hand against the shared currency. Thanks YoCryptoManic
FX_IDC:XAUUSDLong
by yoCryptoManic
USDJPY V GOLD: BEST VALUE - RISK-ON SELL JPY; RISK-OFF BUY GOLD Why Gold is lagging Safe have losses & Yen is outperforming 1. When looking at Gold vs Yen or XAUJPY it becomes apparent why Gold is lagging the broad safe haven losses that we have seen during this risk-recovery rally - investors are buying gold over Yen - so gold appears to be their preferred safe have asset to hold in a risk-on rally - likely a function of perceived future weakness of Yen? BOJ/ JPY Govt stimulus? - This may be the case for three reasons; 1) Investors speculate JPY is due further downside gains compared to gold (Gold is the stronger Risk-off asset) and they speculate that BOJ may deliver a big devaluing package and/ or 2) They believe JPY is more overvalued than Gold so they sell their JPY holdings over their Yen. 3) Gold is more illiduid compared to Yen e.g. investors have been able to sell their Yen faster/ easier than their Gold as Gold is a physical asset and FX markets are the most liquid markets in the world - whereas Yen is pure currency which is convertible at any level. Implications: 1. This infers that investors expect Gold to continue to outperform in risk-off rallies going forward - which makes sense given Gold is already up 30% this year vs Yen's only 20% up - so they see further upside for Gold. This could be the case as the market discounts the probability that the BOJ/ JPY govt delivers a large easing package which devalues the JPY. - Therefore Gold shorts should be careful during this risk-on rally as when the tides change back to the trend of risk-off, Gold is more likely to rally aggressively in comparison to Yen. Trading strategy: 1. Buying Gold on the risk-on reversal (to risk-off) - we should allocate the liquidity to Gold over Yen to take advantage of this investor sentiment. 2. The market is clearly discounting quit aggressive JPY weakness when relatively compared to other safe havens - likely due to BOJ/ JPY Govt stimulus worries. - Knowing this, we should potentially position for JPY shorts - since the market clearly is positioning for some serious JPY weakness relatively - a big BOJ package? 3. Whilst safe havens have outperformed risk by 14% (20% safe havens 6% risk-on assets - pre-brexit) - Gold has also outperformed Yen by 7%. - Therefore in risk-off rallies we SHOULD expect Yen to underperform Gold e.g. GOLD should be brought over Yen. - In risk-on rallies (now) we should expect Yen shorts to outperform Gold as Yen is considered the poorer asset - USDJPY longs are better/ safe than Gold shorts (hence supporting my long $yen view). *Check the attached posts that also support the long $Yen view in this market*
FX_IDC:XAUJPYLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
5
RISK-OFF YEAR: BREXIT & US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION: BUY GOLD @12592016, the year of the Risk-Off Asset Historically Gold has performed +10-20% in the 6 months into US Presidential Election years AND also by longing Gold on this pull-back it opens up the opportunity to benefit from the potential tail risk that the UK votes to "Brexit" in which Gold will likely trade through $1400. Gold is one of my favourite plays for 2016 for these reasons so I suggest a strategy of: Buy GOLD - 1@1259 2@1237 3@1210 Long term TP $1395 SL $1195 Short term TP $1310 SL $1195 - Near-term on a UK Vote to stay we will likely see Gold risk-on sell off towards the $1200 handle - this is a great opp to get a good average price by buying Gold on its way down as I expect Gold to trade close to $1400 by years end and into the Election. - A UK Vote Leave will put Gold close to the $1400 level within a week. - The time-risk are asymmetrically skewed to the upside for Gold IMO as 1) in the near term, Brexit and Global economic unbalance uncertainty buoys the precious metal; Further, the recent failure of risk markets (SP/DJ) to set new highs despite posting recovery, likely signifies the end of the equity bull run, and thus the start of the Gold bull Run. - and 2) The US FOMC Rate Hike Cycle, US Presidential election and wider Global Economic concerns of Deflation and low-growth which is a systemic issue and is also likely to be the case for the foreseeable future (with the 2nd and 3rd largest Central Banks - ECB and BOJ under pressure - among much of the developed world) all contribute to drive the increase in risk-off/ safe haven demand for Gold over the Long-Medium term. - Gold is selling-off due to the increased risk appetite in the market currently as the near-term Brexit risk is soothed by "Stay" biased polls - HOWEVER, with Gold Volatility trading 50% lower than it was a week ago (reflecting the settled risk this week) with current ATM at 15%, and with 1M Risk-Reversals trading with a positive call skew of 3% we can expect an upward bias over the coming weeks/ months. - As lower Implied Vols are projected across the 12m options curve and the 12m Futures curve is also trading contango which both imply the Gold market sentiment is for the price to rise. - Finally, as the FOMC Rate hike cycle intensifies over the medium-term, bond prices will come under pressure, thus driving further demand for Gold as the higher quality and higher return asset is sought.
FX:XAUUSDLong
by QuantumLogicTrading
6