Staying Cautious on Bitcoin Until After The ETF DecisionsI don't know about you, but with all of the hype for the Bitcoin ETF going on, I am staying pretty cautious in the markets right now. Even though there are some big movements going in other altcoins, most eyes are watching good ole BTC.
Nobody truly knows what is going to happen, there is a ton of speculation going on and the price action we are seeing is people trying to buy coins before the hedge funds go nuts with their money.
Many say it will be a 'sell the news' kind of event. This may be the case. In 2017, the Grayscale Bitcoin Trust opened up futures trading on the CME, and that is what started the collapse of that market cycle. So who really knows.
In times of crazy news cycles like this, I pay more and more attention to the charts for my direction. Right now I am seeing Bitcoin hitting a very solid line of resistance. It needs to break through the 48K level and find it as support for me to be more bullish. If we get rejected on the news, we could see a big dip down to the high 30's or low 40's which is where, if the ETFs pass, the hedge funds will be looking to scoop up. So don't be surprised to see some market manipulation going on.
So we may see some fireworks for sure in the next couple of days, but whether they are red or green fireworks has yet to be seen. I am just staying cautious and not going to make impulsive decisions either way.
What are your thoughts on the Bitcoin ETFs and where do you think the price will go?
Buytherumor
ETH Ethereum Price Prediction after the BTC ETF approvalThe price of Ethereum (ETH) will be affected by the approval of the Bitcoin ETF this week.
Some of the biggest asset managers on the entire planet are going to release a BTC ETF:
Blackrock $9.3 Trillion
Fidelity $4.5 Trillion
Franklin Templeton $1.53 trillion
Invesco $1.5 Trillion.
BlackRock expects Bitcoin ETF approval on Wednesday, in-line with Bloomberg's January 10 deadline.
I expect the approval to a buy the rumor, sell the news event.
Employing the strategy of "buy the rumor, sell the news," traders strategically capitalize on market movements by entering positions based on speculative information. This approach involves opening positions on rumors and closing them when the anticipated news is officially announced, typically resulting in a profit.
A retracement in the price of Ethereum, after the news, probably to $1900, would be a buying opportunity for a year-end rally, in my opinion.
ETHBTC days away from 1day chart goldencross.Here we see the monthly logarithmic chart for the ethbtc pair so the impending golden cross is not shown here. It is only a few days at most away from crossing and we can see here on the log chart that the ethbtc chart’s priceaction is well above an inv h&s pattern and likely has validated the breakout of this pattern even though we haven’t reached its full measured move target just yet. We can also see how price action is now poking a monthly candle above this monthly bullflag in white here. I think it is very possible for ethbtc to continue pumping past the 1day golden cross on its way to hitting both of these chart pattern’s (bullflag and invh&s) targets. However there is such huge anticipation for Ethereum switching over to proof of stake that there is a high probability since the date for it has been announced so far in the future, that it will be a buy the rumor sell the news type of event that pumps up until the event then dumps the week or day of. The one possibility that could keep this from being a sell the news event however is If enough people post predictions that it will be a sell the news event…in which case if everyone in the herd is expecting a sell the news dump it could even continue to pump day of. For now though, it seems the overall sentiment believes the switch will lead to a pump so sell the news has a higher probability at the moment. That could change the closer we get if more and more analysts and youtube personalities start warning of a sell the news event. Quite the paradox really lol. In the short term however I think continued upside after the golden cross is likely, but if we dump on the day it switched to proof of stake the golden cross can still easily be a fake out that flips back into a death cross soon after, so it’s wise to stay vigilant. *not financial advice*
Bullish scenario for Eth/Usd; Rallying into the Merge As long as we stay above $1500; preferrably finding support at $1800; I'm keen on the idea of strength up into the multiple confluences around $2600; and into the 15th September Eth Merge event
~~Multiple Confluences:
~Eth Futures Gap (on CME Weekly chart)
~0.618 retracement level
~1.618 extension of the recent dynamic down leg
~roughly around the 50% level of the 2yr Range (2020-present)
~fundamental bullish driver being the upcoming Eth Merge; which should take place on the 15th-16th September.
Note: If it does pan out like this, and if we rally sharply into the Merge mid-September; i'd be sure to take profits there: 'Buy the rumor, sell the news' type of idea.
Ex2, Buy the Rumor Sell the NewsLet’s look at the recent news with Ukraine.
Anyone who bought the US rumor about Russian aggression profited in weapons manufacturing stocks from December to present day.
This is example is not meant to lean in any direction of morality as much as it is meant to show how news hints at the direction of the markets.
- The US has been working of possible Russian invasion since December 2021
- Biden publicly proclaimed this warning on Jan 27
- Invasion started last week.
Raytheon Technologies is up 20% from December 2021. Seeing new all time highs
- On Dec 20 $RTX has double bottom and golden cross on Jan 6
- Currently the price is consolidating at upper resistance,
- Upward movement likely to continue if NATO anxiety over Russian aggression will most likely continue to bolster the price of weapons stocks for now and into the near future.
Example of Buy the Rumor Sell the news
Let’s look at the recent news with Ukraine. This is example is not meant to lean in any direction of morality as much as it is meant to show how news hints at the direction of the markets.
- The US and EU has been warning of possible Russian invasion since December 2021
- Biden publicly proclaimed this warning multiple times in January
When you watch the news, you can make money by asking yourself logical questions about how this will impact society, and who benefits. Then go invest in those companies.
- Golden Cross on Jan 10
- Price jumped NEARLY 20% from start of US warnings to Friday
- Moving up 5% in one 4 hour candle on Friday Feb 25
This stock has still not reached last ATH and has the potential to continue going up depending on the duration of the conflict.
On Monday, we are likely to see a small dip before the price continues moving upward.
AAPl: "Buy the rumor" ...but at the right entryAAPL: Waiting to see if aapl goes down more PM or MO.
~Rumor has it aapl is announcing iphone 13 next week. Buy the rumor sell the news.
~If price action continues to fall, we have support at 146.95-147.70.
~A crucial point to watch if price continues to plummet is 146. This is a major support line since August 2020 (peep the highlighted parallel uptrend)
$NVDA EARNINGS RUN UP PLAY!no kap this a buy on monday as long as we see a continuation in this uptrend on smaller time frames but nothing is guaranteed, always have proper risk management... only risk what you are ok w/ loosing. This takes us to our next point... buy the rumor, sell the news, now typically earnings rarely reciprocate results in terms of the stock price so i am not holding through earnings. if you do decide to hold expect the unexpected (both ways)
KTOV announcement soon???Kitov Pharma plans to launch sales of Consensi in the US in May 2020, according to a March press release.
"Company’s marketing partners in the U.S. plan to commence selling Consensi in May 2020.
Kitov expects to receive between $28 million and $36 million in milestone and royalty revenues
from 2020 through 2022."
It is easy to see that the past two months of uptrend are because of the anticipation of this launch.
AH/PM we have seen an 8% price increase which is always a good sign for a continued bullish trend.
A textbook bull pennant is forming on the hourly chart. This has already broken out of the pennant in PM to the 0.236 Fib.
I will be looking for entry after the break of the .50 resistance. Expect heavy resistance at .55. Looking for PT1@.65c PT2@.75c.
ETH Reverting to the Mean?Please don't trade based on my technical analysis alone. This is only meant to provide you with new ideas and new insight to improve your own unique approach to trading. I don't expect to accurately predict what the price will do. I just enjoy imaging different scenarios that could happen. Enjoy!
This is just a quick update on ETH. If you don't know, I'm very bullish on ETH in the long term. I don't know how long it will take but when it happens I for one will be capitalizing on it. The recent bullish action has me especially excited. I think it's just getting started.
ETH is suspected to release the major update Constantinople in mid January. I wouldn't be surprised at all of we see bullish movement until then.
And from a technical standpoint, it appears that we are due to revert to some of the major daily moving averages. I think we'll see the 50 and the 100 soon, and maybe even the 200. What do you think? I'm curious to know.
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Cheers!