USDJPY-Weekly Market Analysis-Sep22,Wk2If you remember the analysis that I made, you would remember that I said that the Bearish Bat on the Daily Chart won't be fulfiled. Real trading means, sometimes after weeks of waiting, there is no trading opportunity, and that is ok. I always said, it is better not to engaged a trade that doesn't seems to work out rather than regrets after engaging those trade that you know you shouldn't have.
Trend traders can wait for the retest within the buy zone(blue box) and wait for a 3-bar reversal before engaging on the trend trading setup.
Buyzone
Can $ADM hold support and move higher from here?Notes:
* Very strong up trend on all time frames
* Good earnings in the recent quarters
* Basing for the past ~6 months
* Coming up on the right side of its base
* Recently broke back above a key level around ~$87.2 and has been holding this level as support with higher than average volume
* Printed an inside day with higher than average volume
* Bouncing off of its 20EMA
Technicals:
Sector: Consumer Defensive - Farm Products
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 2.78
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 1.55
U/D Ratio: 1.81
Base Depth: 37.27%
Distance from breakout buy point: -10.61%
Volume 22.31% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can enter now as the price is bouncing off of its 20EMA and a key support level around $87.2
* If you want a better entry you can look to enter around $87.2 or if it pulls back closer to the 20EMA
* This stock usually has local tops when the price closes around 12.92% above its 50 EMA
* Consider selling into strength if the price closes 12.72% to 13.12% (or higher) above its 50 EMA
* The last closing price is 4.89% away from its 50 EMA
$STLD is pushing higher on the right side of its ~5 month base!Notes:
* Very strong up trend on all time frames
* Great earnings track record
* Basing for the past ~5 months
* Was rejected around the ~85.3 area and pulled back to its 20 day EMA
* Now it's broken above that resistance level with high volume
* Printed a pocket pivot indicating institutional demand
* Seems to have also formed an inverse head and shoulders pattern
* Showing lots of strength and accumulation
Technicals:
Sector: Basic Materials - Steel
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 3.15
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 1.44
U/D Ratio: 1.75
Base Depth: 55.04%
Distance from breakout buy point: -13.12%
Volume 148.59% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can enter now as the price is just breaking above resistance with volume
* If you're looking for a better entry you may find one on the retest of ~85.3
* This stock usually has local tops when the price closes around 21.32% above its 50 EMA
* Consider selling into strength if the price closes 21.12% to 21.52% (or higher) above its 50 EMA
* The last closing price is 12.53% away from its 50 EMA
Is $PSTG ready push higher on the right side of its base?Notes:
* Steady up trend on all time frames
* Great earnings track record
* Basing for the past ~8 months
* Pulled back to its 20 day line and is now moving higher with volume
Technicals:
Sector: Technology - Computer Hardware
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 3.54
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 6.42
U/D Ratio: 1.24
Base Depth: 64.4%
Distance from breakout buy point: -15.42%
Volume 41.61% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can enter now as the price is recovering from its pull back on high volume
* If you're looking for a better entry you may be able to find one around the ~$30.7 area
* This stock usually has local tops when the price closes around 19.92% above its 50 EMA
* Consider selling into strength if the price closes 19.72% to 20.12% (or higher) above its 50 EMA
* The last closing price is 9.1% away from its 50 EMA
Is $ARCB ready to start coming up on the right side of its base?Notes:
* Very strong up trend since March 2020 on all time frames
* Great consistent earnings since 2020
* Basing for the past ~9 months now
* Broke above and retested $86.7 which has acted as a pivotal area for bulls and bears
* Consolidating just above $86.7 for the past ~4 weeks with decreasing volume
* It was consolidating around the bottom of its base with decreasing volume as well; meaning sellers lost steam
Technicals:
Sector: Industrials - Trucking
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 4.04
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 5.53
U/D Ratio: 1.32
Base Depth: 86.73%
Distance from breakout buy point: -28.74%
Volume 1.77% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can enter this now as the price is close to its 50 day line and it's also close to the broken resistance of $86.7
* If you're looking for a better entry you can try catch one around $86.7 as that should hold as support moving forward
* This stock usually has local tops when the price closes around 27.14% above its 50 EMA
* Consider selling into strength if the price closes 26.94% to 27.34% (or higher) above its 50 EMA
* The last closing price is 7.21% away from its 50 EMA
$HSDT Next Target PTs 2.25-2.75 and higherHelius Medical Technologies, Inc., a neurotechnology company, focuses on developing, licensing, and acquiring non-invasive technologies for the treatment of symptoms caused by neurological disease or trauma. Its product, Portable Neuromodulation Stimulator (PoNS), is a non-surgical medical device intended for use as a short term treatment of gait deficit due to symptoms from multiple sclerosis and balance deficit due to mild-to-moderate traumatic brain injury, as well as to be used in conjunction with supervised therapeutic exercise. The company is headquartered in Newtown, Pennsylvania.
$CAL is breaking out of a ~15 month long base. Can it go higher?Notes:
* Strong up trend since March 2020
* Good earnings in the recent quarters
* Basing for the past ~15 months
* Broke out around the end of May but pulled back to its 200 day line
* Currently breaking out of historical resistance of $29.85 with higher than average volume
* Next historical resistance comes in around $31.38
Technicals:
Sector: Consumer Cyclical - Footwear & Accessories
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 1.8
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 5.0
U/D Ratio: 1.44
Base Depth: 67.62%
Distance from breakout buy point: 1.31%
Volume 11.71% above its 15 day avg .
Trade Idea:
* You can enter now as the price is just breaking out of its base and historical resistance with higher than average volume
* If you're looking for a better entry you can look for one around the $29.85 area as that should hold as support moving forward
* This stock usually has local tops when the price closes around 21.29% above its 50 EMA
* Consider selling into strength if the price closes 21.09% to 21.49% (or higher) above its 50 EMA
* The last closing price is 11.01% away from its 50 EMA
$EQNR is breaking out of its base with a Pocket Pivot!Notes:
* Very strong up trend on all time frames
* Good earnings in the recent quarters
* Created a double bottom base for ~5 months and is now breaking out with higher than average volume
* Not much else to say... it's a great looking chart ;)
Technicals:
Sector: Energy - Oil & Gas Integrated
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 6.09
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 1.64
U/D Ratio: 1.17
Base Depth: 22.23%
Distance from breakout buy point: 0.44%
Volume 31.67% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can get in now (at $38.44) as the price is just breaking out
* If you want a better entry you can look for one around the 37.7 area if it comes back down
* Right now it does seem to be gaping up so I wouldn't chase the price... Lets see how it behaves after the gap up and offers another entry
* This stock usually has local tops when the price closes around 15.28% above its 50 EMA
* Consider selling into strength if the price closes 15.08% to 15.48% (or higher) above its 50 EMA
* The last closing price is 7.64% away from its 50 EMA
Is $DE ready to move higher from here?Notes:
* Very strong up trend
* Great earnings track record
* Was basing for about a year before volatility kicked it around to both the up and down side of the base
* It's currently back within that base (between 394.4 and 323.5)
* Last weeks close had strong volume coming in (above average)
* Recently came back above the $357.1 mark on the weekly, which seems to be a battle ground for bull and bears (with higher than average volume)
* Was consolidating tightly all of last week with increasing volume and broke out of that consolidation on Friday with abnormally high volume
* Currently offering an early entry and a pocket pivot
Technicals:
Sector: Industrials - Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 1.02
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 1.18
U/D Ratio: 1.2
Base Depth: 53.52%
Distance from breakout buy point: -16.72%
Volume 208.01% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can enter now as the price is just breaking out of consolidation with higher than average volume
* If you want a better entry you may be able to get one around the 361.9 area if it comes back within the consolidation range
* This stock usually has local tops when the price closes around 13.34% above its 50 EMA
* Consider selling into strength if the price closes 13.14% to 13.54% (or higher) above its 50 EMA
* The last closing price is 8.67% away from its 50 EMA
Can $DLTR push higher from here?Notes:
* Very strong up trend on all time frames
* Great earnings in the recent quarters and in general
* Creating a base on base pattern for the past ~8 months
* Price is mostly keeping above its 50 day line since mid April with a few dips below
* Volatility is contracting with signs of accumulation
Technicals:
Sector: Consumer Defensive - Discount Stores
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 2.58
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 3.05
U/D Ratio: 1.24
Base Depth: 36.34%
Distance from breakout buy point: -3.83%
Volume 17.45% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can enter now as the price is just above its 50 day line with increasing volume
* If you want a better entry you can look for one around the $163.7 - $162.1 area as that should hold as support
* This stock usually has local tops when the price closes around 15.72% above its 50 EMA
* Consider selling into strength if the price closes 15.52% to 15.92% (or higher) above its 50 EMA
* The last closing price is 2.4% away from its 50 EMA
Caution:
* Earnings are coming up and the stock could move either way. If you want to play it safe, wait till after earnings to jump in.
$KBR is showing signs of moving higher!Notes:
* Very strong up trend since 2016
* Great earnings track record
* Basing for the past ~5 months
* Created a double bottom and is now approaching the top of the handle
* Recently bounced off of its 50 day line
* Offering a low risk entry
Technicals:
Sector: Industrials - Engineering & Construction
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 2.23
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 2.26
U/D Ratio: 1.52
Base Depth: 28.54%
Distance from breakout buy point: -7.85%
Volume 10.62% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can enter now as the price is still close to its 50 day line on stable volume
* If you're looking for a better entry you can look for one around the 51.8/9 area as that should hold as support
* If you're looking for a safer entry you can wait for a break and hold above 53.26
* This stock usually has local tops when the price closes around 15.01% above its 50 EMA
* Consider selling into strength if the price closes 14.81% to 15.21% (or higher) above its 50 EMA
* The last closing price is 4.37% away from its 50 EMA
$ZGN an IPO coming up on the right side of its base!Notes:
* Coming up on the right side of its IPO base
* Has been using its 50 day line as a dynamic level of support
* Recently broke above an important resistance level around 11.22 with higher than average volume
* Has been increasing steadily in price and volume
* Printed a pocket pivot with squatting price action (not ideal)
Technicals:
Sector: Consumer Cyclical - Apparel Manufacturing
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 1.04
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 2.37
U/D Ratio: 3.51
Base Depth: 39.96%
Distance from breakout buy point: -9.73%
Volume 117.75% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* I particularly don't like the squatting price action at the moment so I personally wouldn't enter now.
* If the price holds above 11.22 and stops squatting I may consider entering
* If you want to enter now you can as the price is just above the broken resistance level of 11.22
* If you're looking for a better entry you may just want to wait and see how the price behaves around this level
* I'll post about this again if it makes better progress.
Is $CCJ ready to start coming up on the right side of its base?Notes:
* Strong up trend since March 2020
* Good earnings in the recent quarters
* Has been basing for ~5 months now
* Seems to have formed a double bottom with a handle
* Printed a pocket pivot with a bullish pin bar in the last session
* Red lines denote historical levels
Technicals:
Sector: Energy - Uranium
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 2.32
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 1.64
U/D Ratio: 1.02
Base Depth: 57.8%
Distance from breakout buy point: -21.39%
Volume -6.15% below its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can enter now as the price is close to its 50 day line and is offering a potential early entry
* If you want a safe entry you can wait for a break above 26.16 as that is immediate resistance
* This stock usually has local tops when the price closes around 20.97% above its 50 EMA
* Consider selling into strength if the price closes 20.77% to 21.17% (or higher) above its 50 EMA
* The last closing price is 5.76% away from its 50 EMA
Is $GIS ready to move higher?Notes:
* Very strong up trend on all time frames
* Great earnings track record
* Breaking out of a base on base pattern of about 4 months
* Has been testing broken resistance of 76.57 as support for the past several sessions
Technicals:
Sector: Consumer Defensive - Packaged Foods
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 7.77
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 1.08
U/D Ratio: 1.33
Base Depth: 16.62%
Distance from breakout buy point: 1.14%
Volume 61.4% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can enter now as the price is still close to the broken level
* If you want a better entry you can look for one around the 76.57 area as that should continue to serve as support should $GIS continue to range
ETSY, Another successful prediction using Elliott waves !It was unbelievable talking about 70 USD as a major low when it was at 166 USD or even at ATH (See related ideas) ! however we predicted it carefully and time proved the power of our analysis.
Also I warned about possibility of a major fall when it was near ATH as my worst case scenario :
This is not to give myself a compliment ( Although some may believe I deserve it) . This is to provide you an example which shows the power of Elliott waves for major predictions ,of course, if used correctly.
Please note I do not claim that predicted upside move began from last major low will continue and it will not make a new major low. As written in the chart, there are some alternative scenario for now. For example a wave X can be formed which connects two corrective patterns however, as amount of Retracement in ETSY is enough and acceptable there may be a time correction in future considering general market condition.
And please note this is not a LONG position recommendation since ETSY is now far from last major low ( Although it may go higher) If you are going to open a long position in this stock it is wise to wait for a major correction and Retracement. It is worth to keep in mind usually wave 2s Retrace much of wave 1. This means if being patient enough ETSY can be bought in lower prices.
Good luck everybody.
Can $HRMY break historical resistance once again?Notes:
* Steady up trend on all time frames
* Okay earnings track record
* Trying to break above historical resistance of the ~52.8 area
* Pulled back to the 50 day line
* Printed a bullish outside day in the last session
* Earnings report reaction sold off to the 50 day but bounce from there indicating demand around the $50.34 area
Technicals:
Sector: Healthcare - Biotechnology
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 17.65
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 41.59
U/D Ratio: 0.96
Base Depth: 70.33%
Distance from breakout buy point: -8.1%
Volume 8.87% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can enter now as volume comes in after the earnings report reaction
* If you want a better entry you can find one around the $51.7 area
* If you want a safer entry you can wait for a clear break/hold above the ~52.8 area as that is historical resistance.
* This stock usually has local tops when the price closes around 16.84% above its 50 EMA
* Consider selling into strength if the price closes 16.64% to 17.04% (or higher) above its 50 EMA
* The last closing price is 5.44% away from its 50 EMA
$AMPH is building a nice pivot area!Notes:
* Strong up trend since late 2021
* Great earnings track record
* Building a base for the past ~4 months
* Building a pivot area around $37.8 for the past three weeks
* Bounced off of the 50 day line with higher than average volume
* Has been using the 50 day line as a dynamic level of support for the past month or so
Technicals:
Sector: Healthcare - Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & Generic
Relative Strength vs. Sector: 3.28
Relative Strength vs. SP500: 7.72
U/D Ratio: 1.5
Base Depth: 49.24%
Distance from breakout buy point: -17.32%
Volume 20.79% above its 15 day avg.
Trade Idea:
* You can enter now as the price is just bouncing off of its 50 day line
* If you want a better entry you can look for one around the $36 area as that seems to be acting as a pivot also
* If you want a safer entry you should wait for a clear break and hold above the $37.8 resistance area
* This stock usually has local tops when the price closes around 23.22% above its 50 EMA
* Consider selling into strength if the price closes 23.02% to 23.42% (or higher) above its 50 EMA
* The last closing price is 3.03% away from its 50 EMA