We are going to intentionally cycle through many Yield chart updates, which will be rolled out over the next few days. The game of currency speculation must include Yield analysis to have a compromising effect. It is evident that the exchange in control at the 0.48x lows has lead to a change in momentum. Buyers have forced the technical break and negated the...
Looking at the chart we can see the 3 month yield inverted with the 10 year yield a few weeks ago so recession could be anywhere from 12-18 months out. The question is, where do we stabilize in this current down swing? Things will probably go sideways for a while before we break support and rates dive to zero. The catalyst will be nGDP figures and Bank of Canada policy.
The 10 year Canadian yield is now below the 1 year and 3 month yield, which is a good indicator of a potential recession ahead. Rates follow economic growth, so we can interpret yields as a function of the economy. These interest rates also impact the price of money (CAD interest rates). One way to interpret lower interest rates in the Canadian economy is that...
Back in November (2018) the yield on the 10 year Canadian treasury hit the upper boundary historical trendline and reversed sharply after briefly overshooting. Fundamentally, interest rates follow GDP figures so we can use these technicals to give us a bit of a prognoses for the financial and economic wellbeing of the country... and its not looking good. Today...