GBP USD SHORTPrice has came to retest a previous level of resistance in the market. Its appears we have had a fake out above this resistance level before seeing a bearish engulfing candle close back below this level. This also lined up with rejections at a key fib level.
On lower time frames we will be looking for a break of the next level of resistance before considering shorts.
If things develop how we planned and we take a set up, we will be targeting around the 1.368 level.
Let me know what you guys think!
Cable
GBPUSD - More downside to go?!GBPUSD - Technical view: More downside to go?!
Technical View:
Support: 1.36830, 1.36050, 1.35310, 1.35000
Resistance:1.37930, 1.39515, 1.40455, 1.41570
Pattern: Wedge/Pennant - Broken to downside, Blue line measuring length.
Bears are in control if we get a break below support area of: 1.36570
Bulls are in control if we get a break above resistance area of: 1.38670 (200EMA Above)
Overall, we are currently in between ranges of: 1.36570 (S) - 1.37930 (R) break to either direction for further clarification perhaps a trade for next week to consider.
Keep in mind End of months flows & Keep an eye on Monthly closes.
Fundamental:
Overall, not much impact regarding calendar front apart from NFP on Friday next week. This week we had DXY rising and as majors decline! Finally broke out of the ranges we were in. We aren't seeing reflation trade this week. Market seeking a safe haven aspects.
- 3rd Wave in EU & USA - Rising calls for concerns
- Politics in US - Infrastructure spending 3trillions with be a high cost on cooperate tax rate heading higher
- April equities, usually best month of of the yr. (Seasonality)
- Commodity FX pairs - Weakening may continue as dollar strengthens
- UK Vaccination is going well. However Astra vaccine has been told to provide Europe further with the vaccinations
- First stages of the unlocking eases on Monday in UK - We've even got great weather for the week as well! 🌞
- NFP Next week - Great for scalp.
UK Reminder: Clocks go forward
Key tips: Don't try make your P&L on Friday - Trade what you see, not what you think!
Have a great weekend.
Trade Journal
(Just a trade idea, not a recommendation)
GBP - BULLISHThe focus for GBP is likely to be firmly fixed on the coronavirus outbreak now that the UK and EU have reached a Brexit agreement.
Of course, although the market's focus on Brexit is now likely to markedly fade, the UK and EU's relationship will still remain of importance for GBP. This has been highlighted in recent sessions by the rise in UK/EU tensions over coronavirus vaccine supplies and distribution.
Regarding the UK's coronavirus outlook, this remains encouraging with the UK's vaccine program having administered at least one dose to almost half of the UK population. Given the current success of its vaccine program, the UK is now in the early stages of lifting lockdown restrictions.
While the UK's coronavirus outlook is improving, we expect GBP to remain well supported, resulting in a bullish fundamental outlook.
GBPUSD - MORE DOWNSIDE?This is what I'm looking for next week. Dxy breaking key levels and pound in the bin as a result especially with EU blocking vaccine exports to UK.
Lots of confluences for price to react.
4hr Support
200 EMA
3rd Touch of channel
Clear new LL's LH's structure
61.8% fib
Target is the 800ema and 1.35 key level
A break above the channel see's buys up to 1.41 but given the key breakout on the weekly and daily timeframes could be a bad end to the month for cable
GBPUSD from 1.4 to 1.38 longs inboundwe have the cable dropping from 1.4 and headed to another critical buy zone at 1.38. denied multiple times to go lower in all of march so far we can assume longs can be loaded here in this zone with a tight stop loss and minuscule drawdown for a high probability trade
GBPUSD SETUP 1:5Generally, prices have been remaining disciplined and follow this bullish trend
Currently, prices are at the support level and are ranging between the 61.8% and 50% Fibonacci level.
I'm expecting a breakout of this ranging pattern next week.
Hopefully, we may see prices reach previous highs which would secure us 5R.
GBPUSD | Range | How To Work ItLooking for buys within this range at the moment. Things are looking like what we spoke about in this week's market prep.
Ideal scenario
We attack buy-side liquidity, then we see a minor sell-off from UK close to Asia Open.
Right now the activity within this range looks bullish because we have a void above price and the price has been clearing the sell-side orders.
This means the buy-side should be cleared next.
Price is like Pacman, all it wants to do is eat orders.
I'm actually still bearish overall on this pair at the moment, depending on how this progresses things could change, (targeting 1.3800)
I wouldn't be surprised if we retraced all the way up to those two red zones, then see a heavy dump off,
Keep in mind GBP has some red folders on Thursday morning. Might be safer to work within this until then, then let the news do its thing.