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ridethepig | Oven Ready GBP Chart PackThe economic landscape and political development 📌 What the less advanced participants must know about the Brexit saga and economic development First a few reminders. We call the resistance area drawn across the first chart our ' Loading Zone ', and here the word 'loading' is used in a trading sense and not its progressive sense. The 1.23xx and 1.15xx are considered the 'absolute lows' in the current range (once again in a strictly trading sense). It is easy to find the centre, positioned where the scaffolding supports our price structure. By defining our centre, we have created technical borders around the price, in other words the map of our flows (1.35xx, 1.23xx and 1.15xx). 1️⃣ By political development, I mean the reckless retreat of UK market access in the short-term The procedure to return to WTO rules is the same as the advance towards the house of economic bondage; whether you want to argue about sovereignty or debate migration, the loss of market access in the immediate term will damage the UK real economy. No-deal Brexit is coming in October despite the political fairy dust and attempts from the Supreme Court to 'take back control'. A ruthless Downing Street hijacked the entire country and are at the wheel aiming to cause maximum pain to the economy in the near term with their edenistic view of rebuilding into 2030 and beyond. So "development" of UK exposure is not really in play for the next 1-2 or even 3 years, but the idea is much rather that UK assets should be redeveloped from lower levels. It is good - if I may say so - from a markets perspective with the spirit of volatility in mind. However, from a humanist and democratic perspective there is a major threat. For example, think how undemocratic it would be to break international laws, destabilise the union and undermine previous commitments (we are not talking about a Banana republic, rather the country of the Magna Carta!!). It's very difficult to find any Brexiteers on the ground that truly wanted no-deal - let alone support for Johnson. 2️⃣ The global economic landscape must not be considered in itself to be healthy, but rather simply an environment which helps politicians pass the blame. This is an important notion for all those following the covid dominos . The advance of Covid has given cover, where possible for politicians globally to develop counter arguments for nationalism without the criticism from the public. Because, as we have discussed together before, the end of the economic cycle is an unavoidable chapter in the sense that the economy, as with all things in life cycles naturally. For that reason, we should first position for a breakdown in the UK currency. The following chart demonstrates the unavoidable cycle down: Since the economic cycle down will last into 2021/2022, we may characterise the advances in equities as noise for our purposes as the equity market is not a reflection of the real economy via artificial CB intervention. Now the UK CFO, Rishi Sunak, can be seen like a deer in the headlights. The effect of years and years of policy mistakes? Tax hikes are coming, and the consumer will pick up the bill. On the cable front, sellers position is comfortable from the point of view that the macro direction and confidence in the public sector are blocked via NDB. A breakdown of the wedge would trigger flows towards the centre at 1.23xx and in addition, unlock 1.14xx and 1.05xx the 1985 lows. Invalidation for the bear case would only come from a breach of 1.35xx. So, we can rightfully continue to look for selling opportunities across UK assets, including the currency. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
11
GBPUSD - Things could take a turn...GBP - Cable...Yes, we do have further Brexit talks this week...! Regarding Brexit we do have till 15th October - For further information, check Brexit schedule online.. Brexit has been an on going thing that really both sides don't agree on much at all. However, there is time to resolve although for a deal could be looking slim the further we approach the key date if we continue the same flow they've been going which could decrease GBP depending on the type of deal if negative or no deal at all. Daily Time frame - Technical aspects: - Pattern, within a longer term channel - Pattern, smaller rising wedge within channel - Fib Retracement - We could decline near support area of channel = 1.31300 areas ..Although I have my eye on 0.618 = 200 EMA 1.27/1.26 areas (That's if we do come out of this bullish channel...! - Fib Retracement - We could even go towards support areas of this channel 1.31300 areas then further rise towards 261.8, which measured the wedge formation towards the length of those areas and good resistance area of the channel as well. However, keep in mind that is a large move heading towards 1.40 if we do go towards those areas. For further confirmation, if the bulls get in control we could need to retest the 1.35 areas closing above. On Thursday, we have the ECB meeting regarding policy matters and various other topics as we are aware Feds have shifted the market towards a dovish view and ECB does not like higher monetary price it will be interesting how they approach this meeting and what kind of outlook will be given, which could shift the major pairs, that might be perhaps easier to trade....but most importantly do keep an eye on EUR we could either go back towards 1.19 or 1.1750-1.16 areas, and if there is no change 1.19-1.20. Key Tip: Don't rush to trade, add further confirmation towards your plan...! All the best & have a successful week of trading. Remember: just a trade idea, not a recommendation. Trade Journal.
by Trade_Journal
Potential Long GUThe market is in an ascending channel on the Daily time frame and has respected the lower support trend and rejected it and gained bullish momentum. Furthermore, on the daily time frame the 200EMA is below price which is a strong indication of bullish momentum and bias continuing. The larger area of resistance has proved itself as a key level of resistance on multile occassions on the market timeframes, a re-test or strong bullish momentum of this area alongside a crossing of the 50EMA above the 200EMA on the hourly woud serve as strong area of confluence and signal to enter a long position. However, GBP is ranging due to uncertainty in Brexit negotiations and further pressure on the Test and Trace system compounded by weak inflation in the UK. Furthermore, there is a high volume of US economic statistics being released today. Namely; Retail sales at 1:30BST, Oil stocks at 3:30 (recently demand has been weak for oil) and FED interest rate decision at 7:00 BST. There is likely to be alot of volatility in this market today, so strong confrimation of bias should be made before entering a trade.
Long
by Tical1
GBPUSD Retracement - Waiting for High Impact News. *OHLC* As I had mentioned in my previous idea, I was looking for a lower objective for the week, but I also accepted the idea of a possible retracement. If my objective was going to be reached, Cable would have needed to immediately expanded to that on Monday. As of right now, the objective I had for the week on Cable may need to wait. I am still overall short on Cable, but I am now open to the idea of being nimble (scalps) with longs.
Short
by TheMystiqueTrader
WHERE DO WE STAND WITH GBPUSD??I felt like posting this so that some of the traders on here can see where we are in terms of the quarters of the year. Its important to see this because around yearly, monthly, weekly, and daily highs and lows those prices are sensitive! We can see that the market ran out the high that was created in the beginning of the first quarter and dropped. As of now. I have my bias for GU for this upcoming week I will post it in a few moments. I recommend traders mark up there charts like this it's helpful to know where you stand in terms of quarters and so on. Enjoy.
by JohnnWick
2
Potential Long Position GUArea of interest, price has tested the support trend line and rejected it on lower time frames. Price is at an area of confluence due to support and resistance trend lines and 200EMA indicating an area of value. Moreover, it is still bullish according to the 200EMA (Daily). However, fundamental analysis may indicate pound weakness due to Brexit negotiations reaching significant stumbling blocks and NHS workers striking. Furhermore, Dollar may be gaining stregth due to what seems to be a potential second spike emerging globally (France recording highest cases on record and India hitting 100,000 daily infections) indicative of liqudity shifting to the Dollar. Acting as a safe haven. Overall, strong confirmation must be shown before entering a long position on this trade as there is potential for a complete breakout of the current market structure which would offer selling opportunties. Either way, this area of confluence will likely offer good trading positions with a good R:R.
by Tical1