GBP/USD Faces Short-Term Volatility with Long-Term Bullish AnticThe GBP/USD pair is poised for a pivotal phase as a slew of significant macroeconomic events unfolds. Investors are preparing for crucial data releases from both the UK and the US, anticipating their impact on the currency pair's trajectory. This week and the following promise to be defining periods, with market attention drawn to pivotal reports and interest rate decisions.
The looming US nonfarm payrolls report and forthcoming CPI data, alongside interest rate verdicts from the Federal Reserve and Bank of England, stand as key markers for the GBP/USD. These events could profoundly sway market sentiment and currency valuation. Notably, the pair has closely mirrored stock market movements, aligning with the rally in major indexes during November.
Despite recent US market pauses, the DAX's continued ascent suggests a prevailing bullish trend in stocks. This trend may bolster the GBP/USD once profit-taking abates, potentially outweighing short-term volatility arising from impending macro events.
In recent trading sessions, the US Dollar Index slightly receded against various currencies, particularly the Japanese yen, following speculation about a potential shift in the Bank of Japan's policy. However, the dollar's overall direction remains uncertain pending the US jobs report, CPI data, and the Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Market indicators suggest investor readiness for a subdued NFP figure, possibly resulting in a stronger dollar if the data remains moderate. However, sustained risk appetite could prompt a sell-off of any notable dollar rally in favor of risk-sensitive currencies like commodity dollars and the pound.
Regarding immediate data releases, expectations for today's jobless claims are subdued, likely maintaining the GBP/USD in a holding pattern ahead of the pivotal US nonfarm payrolls report on Friday.
From a technical perspective, the GBP/USD's upward trajectory since October, with higher highs and lows, indicates a bullish trend. Key support levels around 1.2550 and 1.2500 present potential bullish setups, with 1.2450 marking a critical threshold for a potential bearish reversal.
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Cable
EURUSD - Short/Long SignalEURUSD H8
We might not have highlighted this particular trade yesterday, as our attention was primarily on AUD/USD and GBP/USD. It's worth noting that EUR/USD tends to exhibit a pattern more closely aligned with GBP/USD than with AUD/USD. Despite this, we've observed a significant upward spike, and we've identified a promising setup for a new long order. Today's developments will reveal whether this opportunity is one we can capitalize on.
GBPUSD BULLISH MARKET PROJECTIONThe Cable broke out of a Range structure and we can be expecting bullish rally at least to the high of the RANGE STRUCTURE before the overall high.
I am expecting a retracement backt to discount of the Dealing Range to get into a trade and ride it till the target areas.
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Is The Cable Going Bearish Again...?On the 1 hour, we have seen how the market has danced back and forth in the past few days.
In our last analysis from yesterday, we noticed a strong threat by the bulls to invalidate our zone. The zone was finally invalidated and the bulls took over without giving us a chance to take the trade to the downside.
Following the bullish shift, we witnessed the market stay bullish for a very short term as it again u-turned bearish with the invalidation of our 1 hour zone and PB. It would be safe to say that the seeming bullishness was nothing but the market aiming to make a deeper retracement on the 4 hour timeframe.
THe 4 hour chart is still bearish and we expect prices to switch into the extension swing and stay so. With the 1 hour now aligning bearish with the 4 hour, we are confident the extension is here and that prices will ultimately begin to dip towards our liquidity target below.
We will look to catch this bearish trade and milk the market as it moves towards our target.
Cable Next Resistance Level Is @ 1.27000!GBPUSD closed above another daily swing high, may likely targeting above 1.27000.
N.B!
- GBPUSD price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast.
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
- ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
#gbpusd
#cable
GBPUSD H4 Structure Is Bullish Into NFP, What Happens After?Since Oct 26, cable has been exhibiting a bullish structure, and with the Non-Farm Payrolls later today, will this structure persist or face a shift?
While a temporary dip in prices may occur, it appears unlikely that the overall bullish trend will be disrupted.
N.B!
- GBPUSD price might not follow the drawn lines . Actual price movements may likely differ from the forecast.
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
- ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
#gbpusd
#cable
Still Holding Bearish... But for How Long...?This pair is bearish on the 1 hour and the 4 hour. We choose to limit ourselves to just the 4 and 1 hour charts for now; those are the charts we will be considering the most when taking our trades.
On the 4-hour, we found a bearish push last week, and we were able to catch a bearish trade. We have held on to that position till now, believing that the market still has a bearish trend.
On the 1 hour, we see the market in a bearish PB. The current bullish push has not been able to overthrow the bearish setup. We can see from the charts that the bullish push has come deep into our refined PB zone. We agree that the zone is threatened, but it is still yet to be breached. Until our Bearish zone is breached, we cannot say the bulls have taken over, and as such, we will still hold on to our bearish perspective.
Now for the further analysis:
We hope to see the bearish zone hold. Where it holds, prices are expected to drop bearish toward the 1-hour liquidity target.
Where our expectations fail, we will see our zone breached. In that circumstance, we hope to see prices soar higher for a bit to give us a deeper retracement into the 4 hour PB. From there, we will hope to see a deeper retracement reversal, after which the market will be expected to run the 4 hour liquidity target below.
GBPUSD D1 - LONG SIGNALGBPUSD D1
We had this markup last week, we took a loss on the trending setup, but we bounced 1.5R from that 1.21 handle, which we are now sitting on again.
Same as before, don't fix it unless it's broken, in the case DXY starts to reject that 106.500 (as per the analysis), we could expect 1.21 to hold and get off the ground again.
GBPUSD D1 - Long SignalGBPUSD D1
We had this markup last week, we took a loss on the trending setup, but we bounced 1.5R from that 1.21 handle, which we are now sitting on again.
Same as before, don't fix it unless it's broken, in the case DXY starts to reject that 106.500 (as per the analysis), we could expect 1.21 to hold and get off the ground again.
Investor bailout on CableA very prominent reversal is spotted on GBPUSD considering the following:
1- Head and shoulders appeared as a reversal structure which is an indication that long positions are being closed i.e. GBP might start to lose the battle against USD.
2- Broken lower trendline indicating a shifting bias to downside.
3- We are still stuck inside the daily tf ichimoku cloud, it has not indicated a reversal yet.
4- Last two monthly candles were a bearish engulfing after a shooting star (inverted hammer) i.e. trend converting to bear
What to expect?
1- I have marked a few structure based targets. First of them is 1.2310 which is the target of the head and shoulders as per the definition.
2- The extended target of head and shoulders 1.1802 is actually a support line based on historic response of the zone.
3- The yellow target box is the all time low marked by cable in the history, there is a chance to nail perfect double bottoms there unless it breaks low further.
4- The retracement levels sketched on the chart are the basic fibonacci levels. I am quite sure you already know how to interpret them.
When is this idea invalid?
1- If the price blows the top at 1.3140.
2- Head and shoulders are invalid if price breaks higher than 1.2820 but that does not invalidate the trend bias as long as 1.3140 is intact. Should head and shoulders invalidate, look for the rejection from the retest of the red trendline to sell again. It is important to have a prominent rejection!
Best of luck and happy trading :-)
$Dollar bears?!TVC:DXY Dollar bears may come into control swiftly if we break down within this channel, reaching the red support zones. However, while we are still within the amber zone, patience.
Whilst analysing the dollar, think of other currency pairs such as £.
Ignoring the outside noise and concentrating on price action is key at this moment in time.
Trade Journal | Empowering Your Trading Journey
GBPUSD: Bullish reaction is coming?Although we cannot yet rule out a new bottom on daily chart, from a technical point of view, we are approaching an interesting support area, and this should trigger a bullish reaction on the pair. That said, our short-term view is bullish and we will follow the development in the next few hours on intraday chart (Reversal Pattern formation is necessary to trigger the rally).
Trade with care
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GBPUSD - Long/Short Trade IdeaMy bias is still lower prices for now (refer to my higher-timeframe ideas). However, am interested to see if these trade ideas play out, at least one of them. What is important to me is the day of week, and the time of day, engineered liquidity, along with any scheduled economic news drivers.
GBPUSD D1 | Falling to Fibo confluence supportGBP/USD is falling towards a pullback support and could potentially bounce off this level to climb higher.
Buy entry is at 1.20707 which is a pullback support that aligns with a confluence of Fibonacci levels i.e. the 78.6% retracement and the 127.2% extension levels.
Stop loss is at 1.18248 which is a swing-low support level.
Take profit is at 1.23087 which is a pullback resistance level.
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GBPUSD: 1.2179 is strong so be careful! Hello traders,
1.2179 is strong enough to retrace the GBP. We'll wait for any breaks out of the level before putting sell orders.
There is one entry and1 TP for this pair.
Levels calculated order_block, regarding support and resistances, channel and pivot points.
CABLE - shortsshort cable on trend resumption.
pull back to between 12220 trend resistance to 12250 FIB0.23 resistance.
target 11930 stops above 12400. RSI to act in confluence, turn down around 40 level for validation.
THEME expect UK macro data to disappoint contract to US data showing relative strength.
GBPUSD H4 | Approaching overlap resistanceGBPUSD is rising towards an overlap resistance and could potentially reverse from here to drop lower towards our take profit target.
Entry: 1.25278
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level
Stop Loss: 1.25839
Why we like it:
There is an overlap resistance level that aligns beyond the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level
Take Profit: 1.24457
Why we like it:
There is a pullback support level
Please be advised that the information presented on TradingView is provided to Vantage (‘Vantage Global Limited’, ‘we’) by a third-party provider (‘Everest Fortune Group’). Please be reminded that you are solely responsible for the trading decisions on your account. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. Any information and/or content is intended entirely for research, educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment or consultation advice or investment strategy. The information is not tailored to the investment needs of any specific person and therefore does not involve a consideration of any of the investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any viewer that may receive it. Kindly also note that past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results. Actual results may differ materially from those anticipated in forward-looking or past performance statements. We assume no liability as to the accuracy or completeness of any of the information and/or content provided herein and the Company cannot be held responsible for any omission, mistake nor for any loss or damage including without limitation to any loss of profit which may arise from reliance on any information supplied by Everest Fortune Group.
Cable: Short Idea At 1.2820 So far this year, the pound has made significant progress to the upside. However, there's now a chance that the pair completed the final wave (5) of a five-wave bullish cycle, especially if we consider an ending diagonal formation within wave (5) and a broken trendline, so traders should be aware of more weaknes. A drop from 1.3145 can be counted in five waves for wave (A), so weakness will most likely resume, but after rally in wave (B) which has a nice resistance near 1.2818 for a flat. Higher levels to watch is at 1.3.
I may look for shorts on this one, at the upper side of the current range, form around 1.28 then.
GH