BET ON DXY LONGTERM DECREASE IN VALUE?Back again. FED will be on their target next interest rise, so with that information I suppose that Market starting pricing in this fact. Important will be BoE reaction on this and I assume that they will atleast few times rise, sending Cable upward faster. Corrections meantime are sure thing to grab and shake out retail in wrong direction.
If I missed something which can change my longterm bias, let me know in the comments please!
Wish you only greens,
Jake
Cable
Cable Is Moving Into 5th WaveCable is moving into 5th wave, as we see it unfolding a five-wave bullish impulse from the lows by Elliott wave theory.
Cable with ticker GBPUSD reached a multi-year low after a capitulation back in September 2022. Notice that the price is now looking impulsive on a daily chart, clearly within a five-wave cycle, which indicates for a change in the trend from bearish to bullish by Elliott wave theory.
Now that Cable is trading in 5th wave, we should be aware of a corrective slow down, however, there can be still room up to 1.26 – 1.30 area before correction shows up.
From Elliott wave perspective, every five-wave impulse from lows/highs suggests a change in the trend, but most importantly, after every five waves there comes a three-wave correction.
YOU HAVE SAME VIEW ON GBP/USD? SHARE IT WITH US!Short term - BEARISH
Im getting on bearish bias. Cable grapping liquidity from here and will be in need of correction which i consider as needed before another grow. Fundamental to this can be that DXY is also bleeding a lot and will be in need to correct itself before next FED announces/events.
Long term - BULLISH
As I already wrote. DXY manipulating whole market but is getting weaker. One of few main things will be that there is last rate hikes infront of us and FED will be on their target. I dont think it will leade to massive sell off DXY right away, manipulation at this moment is very in game to me. But also I see market already absorbing (pricing in) next rise of interest. Investors will longtermsell DXY leads to upward move of /USD pairs. Next things is the Yuan thing and BRICS and other.
Let me know if I think about it right in comments,
Wish you green ones only!
Jake
Breaking Down the GBPUSD PairThe GBPUSD cable pair hit our projected target at 1.24171 without first pull-back to the minor support identified around the 1.21007 price level. With a bearish close on the daily timeframe, the pair is likely to trade back to the first demand zone at 1.20975 to find the necessary support to move out of the trading range condition. The 50-SMA and 200-SMA can act as support levels for the price action. The resistance level or the supply zone playing out on the 4-hour chart with divergence signaling price reversal. If the price closes below the 1.22989 level, we can see it trading to the 1.21084 level. On the 1-hour chart, price forming a potential head and shoulder pattern. There is no high-impact news for the Great British pounds in the coming week that can result in high volatility, but the US dollar is likely to be volatile considering expected high-impact news.
CABLE RETEST B4 WAVE #3GBP/USD looks as if some weakness is creeping in to the chart.
On the smaller timeframes we had a TEST of the resistance at 1.235 area during large session volumes, followed by a subsequent retest where it looks as if buyers are exhausted, as they have failed here to push above the resistance during multiple sessions.
Looking for volumes to start pulling CABLE DOWN TO SUPPORT, around the 1.20 area which is VERY solid support structure. Any longs should be resumed in this area, assuming that the price action does play out. From a fundamental level we have Powell who just hiked the dollar 25 base points which should provide some short term support to the ROCKY DXY
GBPUSD - Bear Play Hi everyone
We currently entering into a strong sellzone for Cable. Protective stops noted in the blue shaded area
Based on the 4hr movement - showed us strong bullish momentum. We had a market structure shift to the downside but stops are being targeted and raided.
strong believe price will start reaching for lower areas now - BEAR power
Target area
- 1.21790
- 1.21130
Stops
- 1.23100
I will update on this as the week plays out
Stay safe
GBP/USD: KEY 1.2420 AND 1.2500 LEVELS CAN BE TESTED QUITE SOONAccording to analysts at ING, GBP/USD is currently fluctuating below the 1.2300 level after the Bank of England's recent decision to raise the policy rate by 25 basis points. The economists predict that the pair will soon test the key resistance levels of 1.2420 and 1.2500.
Despite the rate hike, the Bank of England did not provide much guidance in their statement, and it seems that the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) has left all options open. It was anticipated that the BoE would not offer any substantial guidance, leading to a brief impact on the Pound. As predicted, this has been the case.
It is likely that the BoE will take a pause in May, despite the recent rise in inflation. The analysts believe that with around 30 basis points of tightening in the price, there is potential for a repricing lower to favor a slightly higher EUR/GBP.
The BoE's decision does not seem to have much of an impact on Cable, and with the view for Dollar downside risks, the key resistance levels of 1.2420 and 1.2500 are expected to be tested in the near future.
Diagonal completed and gave directional changeWe hold this view as a long term view for the Cable. An ending diagonal in wave C signified the end of the bearish move and a start of Bullish Impulses, we keep holding long positions. First Target at touch of upper channel, Remember we in major wave 5. Long Term Buy!
Cable, four-hourCable reached the peak of its recent range last week and formed a downward engulfing pattern before moving back to lows around $1.193. While a breakout is possible here depending on sentiment, with potential targets around round numbers like $1.19 or even $1.18 further ahead, the absence of any obvious driver ahead of the NFP might suggest that continuation of the range could be more favourable.
Last week's American PMIs brought some volatility on this chart but did not shift the technical picture significantly except in the case of a notable surprise. Instead, 10 March is particularly important for cable because British GDP and the US job report both occur then.
GBPUSD: Daily Flows This demand should be a springboard for buyers.
Although I don't think the buy will go far, I think it will go far enough to lure in a large portion of the market before the huge liquidity zone sweep.
Once buyers are screwed over, we can look at joining the market makers with the true buy position.
Have a great trading week gang...
CABLE BULLISH 3 DRIVEAfter some careful consideration of the price action I realized that CABLE was making a very RARE, DOUBLE HARMONIC pattern called the 3 drives.
In this case it appears as though CABLE is creating a BULLISH THREE DRIVES DOWN harmonic pattern. Which would frame our sells at this point and give us a nice potential EXIT to any CABLE sells at point #3.
From point #3 it is a very high likelihood that CABLE will experience some form of bullish impulse wave. The current trading plan is to ride the THIRD DRIVE TO THE BOTTOM, which is wave 3 of the second harmonic pattern that is contained WITHIN a 3 Drive pattern.
After completion of wave 3, the size of the resulting impulse wave should give clues to the next step in CABLE
GBPUSD! WEEKLY DOUBLE TOP TO CAUSE CABLE REVERT TO ITS MEANGBPUSD has created double top & a re-test of the bearish-order-candle likely to cause the pair to revert to its mean...
N.B!
- GBPUSD price might not follow drawn lines . Actual price movement may likely differ from the forecast.
- Let emotions and sentiments work for you
- ALWAYS Use Proper Risk Management In Your Trades
#gbpusd
#cableEEKLY