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Cable

Cable Pushing Higher After UK CPI Data Cable is back in an uptrend after a capitulation back in September, with the current price making some extended move up after breaking above 1.2 psychological level. We see Cable unfolding a five-wave bullish impulse from the lows, with more upside coming after recent pullback from the highs that unfolded as a correction. Ideally, that was subwave four that can not send the price back into an uptrend after a break above 1.2150 resistance. Ideally thats now the beginning of a new fifth wave higher. Some spectators are also betting on GBP as they believe BoE should be more hawkish with CPI at 10.5%.
by ew-forecast
GBPUSD (Cable) H4 Reversal likely here if this HappenGBPUSD, the cable is finding resistance at a price range of 1.19428 to 1.19140, as highlighted in our previously shared idea. We anticipate that the GBPUSD pair will reverse at the critical support level. See the chart image for clarity. The market is expecting some volatility later today due to the ISM Manufacturing PMI, JOLTS Job Openings, and FOMC Meeting Minutes reports. The details of these reports will determine to a very large extent if the support levels at 1.19428 and 1.19140 will hold or not. Let's keep our fingers crossed. Please like this idea to help reach others and also follow me for support. Many thanks for your time, and I hope to report back soon.
Long
by ClintOnos
Economic logWith the New Year here with the Fed fighting aggressively to battle inflation i know there are a lot of rumors floating around the FED either lowering, maintaining, or increasing the FFR (federal funds rate). none of this matters in my opinion. why? price goes up and buyers slow down. Because, the FED jacked up interest rates so fast that they did not allow the markets to adjust. it seems as is the fed noticed that the inflation was indeed not "Transitory". anyone who believed the idea of transitory inflation is honestly quite foolish. something as absurd as "transitory inflation" is lip service for "give us a second to decide what to do". And "do" they did. As traders we do not care whether its political, all we care about is "the Set-up" there are a few fundamentals that lead me to believe this could potentially be a solid set-up. 1. during 2020 the FED lowered interest rates and here in the states there was a huge surge in demand for housing. So, homeowners bought houses at super low interest rates around the 3's. prior homeowners refinanced their homes at lower interest rates. Around the same percentage. Commercial Real Estate Investors bought RE during this time thinking the good times were going to continue to roll and when the bridge money is complete the inexperienced RE investors probably did not account for the massively higher interest rates on their Exit Caps when they ran their due diligence. So whats going to happen is now that the FED has made money way more expensive it has locked these investors and the sorry souls that invested with the guys in with the property. they will not be able to offload the property, because they will have to take a loss on the property because the cap rate went up and the buyer will not be able to afford the asking price at the 6-7% interest that is currently at in Jan of 2023. Nor will a lending institution lend Grade A money on grade B or C property. 2. Banks are in major trouble. the lending institutions that made riskier loans are about find out where their weak links are located. if borrowers did not lock their interest rates down the borrower and the lender are about to be at odds. This goes for people who took out a home equity line of credit out on their primary residence to buy some thing stupid like an expensive car, boat, girlfriend whatever. typically HELOCs are floating rates (not always) but most of the time. Banks are businesses and make their profit on the spread. Just like your market makers in trading. So the spread is the difference between the interest rate the bank has with the federal reserve and the interest rate you the consumer are willing to pay for the loan. example: if the FFR is 6% then the bank is going to charge you (typically around 2% over the FFR) 8% on a mortgage, car loan, whatever loan product. if you lock your interest rate down at 8 % you're good, but if not you're in trouble. Why? 3. Going back to the business part and the mortgage part. all the buyers and refi-ers that locked down at 3% are staying where they are at. the mentality is "why pay more for the same amount of house or the same house" So new home loans and refinances (the banks cash cow) are drying up. So how does a business survive the drought? they take their floating loans and shoot the rate sky high. to make up for the loss volume of new loans. Commercial Loans, HELOCs, HEILs, Refinances. The potential problem with this is the borrower accounted for the interest at the stated rate of lets say 3-5 percent. 3 percent everything is good, 5 percent the family is eating butterless toast. Well the contract states the bank can charge you up to (example) 20% on the loan after a seasoning period. on a 30 year 100k$ loan thats $20,000 dollars. so now the loan is 120k$ and the loan payment went from 286$ to 341$ naturally a 20% increase on your payments. Now I know alot of people are excited about mortgage rates coming down, but im not sure this is a good thing. i havent seen the paper on these loan products but im guessing one of two things A) these are floating ARMs (adjustable rate Mortgages) B) the banks are getting desperate for business. the FED doesnt control mortgages (YET) its up to the individual banks that borrow from the fed. The fed charges them the borrowing bank the FFR its up to the borrowing bank to decide what to do with cost they can either eat it and absorb the cost or they pass it on to the consumer. so when i hear mortgage rates being 6% or 7% which is near the current FFR its telling me the banks are trying to drum up business. it is by no means a good thing like i keep seeing. 4. Commercial loans are the same way. instead of giving the business the loan based on the borrowers position they are based off the businesses health and business plan. and the terms are a bit different. in commercial loans you have what they call balloon payments and thats when the loan matures. the balloon is typically 5-7 years and again rates can fluctuate. But to make the payments more affordable they lock you in at a payment rate of typically 20 -25 years but could go high as 30 years and even better they're typically interest only loans. So an example of this is on a 100K loan at a 20 year payment rate at 3% with a 5 year balloon youre only paying like 12$ month to month but at the the end of 5 years you have to pay back the entire 100K$. so, that leaves the business a few options to either refinance or liquidate. Now this is not all commercial loans but the ones im familiar with are like this, so if you're holding any businesses in your paper portfolio you need to be paying super close attention to their 10Ks and 10Qs, because a lot of businesses in-cooperated either the influx of cash or lack thereof during this weird COVID time. So if you're seeing their assets drop and their debt rise or maintain or even drop it means the business is selling off its assets to meet these increasing loan demands or even worse their taking new loans to pay off old loans. 5. the fed is in charge of the employment rate as well. kind of odd or counterintuitive to be frank on the matter. but it does kind of make sense. when you look at #4 you can see where the problems start to arise. once the businesses start to liquidate their physical plants they begin to square off the excess fat to bridge the gap. so all unnecessary employees and departments begin to get cut. So when you look at the unemployment rate i think every percent is a million people. So, when you hear things like 4% or 5% unemployment its basically saying 4,000,000 or 5,000,000 people are unemployed. the FED has stuck hard and fast on keeping inflation at 2% its in Powell's speeches on the FEDs website the writing is on the wall in essence. He has also been quoted to be unhappy with the employment rate and wanting higher unemployment. 6. Student loan bubble. I dont know how this is not being discussed in major outlets. But we have a major student loan bubble on our hands here in the states. the problem arises with the issue of the recession we are currently in at the moment. I whole heartedly believe that the US is in a period of Stagflation. productivity has leveled off or dropped off and prices are increasing. The problem arises (as i have said in prior posts before) is the last recession of 2008 businesses never really increased wages after that period i believe out of fear. they learned they can suppress wages and increase productivity so there is no need to increase wages if we can get more for less right? SO, we have kids leaving university with degrees and student loans with the promises of better paying jobs than their vocational trained counter parts, and the plan back fired. students are graduating university and taking jobs that are paying the same amount that a high school drop out is getting payed. (with the exception of STEM based degrees) Why? Because of wage suppression and the older work force staying in the work force longer locking up those higher paying positions due to inflation. So, these kids are forced to take lower paying jobs, live with their parents, and then 6 months later the bill is due for the loans. Im no conspiracy theorist im just a trader that uses a highly debated technique of trading, but if you just remove yourself and look at the bigger picture its clear to see that the world is moving toward a centralized economy. it will probably be a digital one that the central planners can control so they can limit the funds available to their opposition. AKA the FEDcoin. a digital dollar is a terrible idea. but thats a post for another time. long story short the pattern is a bearish butterfly. with all the fundamentals listed above with the rising interest rates i see the dollar gaining strength and in essence following this pattern and coming down over the long haul. thanks for reading my conspiracy! if youre a homeowner lock your mortage rate if you can or pay to lock the rate. even if its 1% or 2% higher than it is currently i dont see the FED slowing down until we get under 5% inflation (if the US government doesnt change the items listed in the CPI)
Short
by ARegularGuy
1
GBPUSD Bearish Impulse - Minor CGBPUSD is starting a Bearish Impulse in Minor C (orange). Wave B (orange) is most likely a Running Flat. However, based on Elliott Wave patterns, it could also reflect as an Expanding Flat. But I don't think so. I am going short on the Pound Dollar. GBPUSD tech. Analysis: * Elliott Wave: Ending Diagonal on Intermediate (C) (white). * Running Flat in Minor B (orange) * Sep '20 Bearish Fractal * 38.2% Fibonacci Retracement of Minor A (orange) * Up-Trend Breach * Channel Consolidation GBPUSD Trading Signal: * Entry @ 1.2170 * SL @ 1.2500 * TP1 @ 1.1800 / TP2 @ 1.1600 / TP3 @ 1.2500 * BUY STOP @ 1.2050 * Aggressive Entry @ Market Price * Moderate Entry @ 1.2320 *Safety Measure: when in the green, moving SL to BE. Many pips ahead! Richard, the Wave Jedi.
Short
by Lionheart-EWA
4
Potential Long Opportunity on CableBased on my past experience in the market, the price action algorithm has given us a potential long opportunity for GBPUSD. When price begins to reach into my POI at this area, I will be watching price action for signs of exhaustion and absorption. If I see the type of price action discrepancies that I like to see before entering a setup, I will be pulling the trigger on this move here for a low risk, high reward setup of over 1:10. I do my best to keep all my setups beyond 1:10 so I can ensure myself as many opportunities to profit as possible. A high reward typically trumps a high accuracy in the long run. Never risk more than what you can stomach losing on any one trade. The game is based on capital preservation 1st and risk management 2nd. Trade wisely.
Long
by jefferytheartist
sell the poundstagflation is the base case for the UK! I cant see the Tories winning in 24months time, so I expect the pound to start pricing in a Labour victory, which also means a spending round to get public services back to par! I really think the pound is now like a 3rd world country, when Labour comes into power, it will target the very rich, those who are mobile, and I suspect financial planning will start as early as 2023 and London house prices will take a massive hit. The BoE will have no choice but to cut rates and the government will have to rollback taxes, they are now the highest in peacetime. It could go the other way, but I don't know what will make it, certainly wont be Sunak, it has to be something like paying off all of its debt while the US and EU plunge into some kind of war or economic depression and the UK stays out!
Short
by Macro-Traders-Strategies
1
Potential GBPUSD Rollover Buy SetupThe Market Price Action Algorithm has presented us with a potential long opportunity at London Session Rollover. Depending on how price reacts at this level, I may place a buy trade. I'm expecting this area to be approached close to London session. If I start to see exhaustion of selling energy and nice wicks to the downside in this area, I will be entering the trade. Regardless of how tight the stop loss is on this trade, do not overleverage. The reason so many traders lose is because they choose to place unnecessary risk on each trade. The name of the game is staying in long enough to compound, not getting rich overnight. Trading is quite literally the tortoise and the hare parable. The market transfers wealth from the impatient to the patient. ...Which group are you in?
Long
by jefferytheartist
#GBPUSD - GO LONG AFTER THE FALL? - *SMT**SMT = smart money theory = see relasted tutoprial regarding what smart money is. Sm,art money is how the charts can be manipulated, and how y0ourself can be manipulated into believing a false sense technical analysis. With the price dropping in one day what iyt gained over the course of the week. The price has dropped below sell side liquidity levels, but to remain bullish needs to stay above a CERTAIN BULLISH ORDER BLOCK LEVEL, otherwise we could see the price turn right back around and go down for GBP, but I think the BOE will be quicker to adapt to the FED knowing the consequences now. S I would guesss that it is moving up into the the hourly fvg and then will get rejected above the premium by smart money, amnd that point it dips a little further, as to where y09ou can enter a second time afgter taking profit the first time around 1.22665 Enter again near 1.21420 if possible and continue to ride this up to 1.26090 to be safe. I have two entries both at 1.21420 First one reaches what is said above and you take your fiorst profit there, it could slip back down to the entrance or even further, into a small fair value gap below which I have prepared for on the second entry,. and ther stop losses at 1.21120 & 1.20525 the second run with the deeper stop loss also has a much larger target at 1.26090 ner the top of the bearish order block. the R:R is 6:1 and 5:1 respectively, so if this woprks out t he way I ho [e it doers in the next week or two, 10% can be added top the account if played correctly. I was once the smarrt money student who has become an instructor. Let's Hope my intuitions are correct about thias. With that said if you hit the first take profit but go out on the second sdtop loss, you should still be at a winning ratio. It's about how to grow yojur account. Everyday you won't hit a homerun. But if y0ou hold the bat long enough, the ball will go far. Cheers, Good Luck and Good trading.
by BodiesXWix
Joe Gun2Head Trade - GBPUSD grinding higher?Trade Idea: Buying GBPUD Reasoning: Grinding higher Entry Level: 1.2239 Take Profit Level: 1.2334 Stop Loss: 1.2196 Risk/Reward: 2.19:1 Disclaimer – Signal Centre. Please be reminded – you alone are responsible for your trading – both gains and losses. There is a very high degree of risk involved in trading. The technical analysis , like all indicators, strategies, columns, articles and other features accessible on/though this site is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice by you. Your use of the technical analysis , as would also your use of all mentioned indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features, is entirely at your own risk and it is your sole responsibility to evaluate the accuracy, completeness and usefulness (including suitability) of the information. You should assess the risk of any trade with your financial adviser and make your own independent decision(s) regarding any tradable products which may be the subject matter of the technical analysis or any of the said indicators, strategies, columns, articles and all other features.
Long
by Signal_Centre
1