Cablelong
GBP/USD Small Short Before Long or Maybe Just Long From Here?I really think GBPUSD is set to go long! Regardless of the whole Brexit deal going on. I really see a lot room for bullish activity on this pair. I can see some support being built up and some bearish trend lines have been broken. Overall this pair still has the potential for going down a little further.
Money management will be a key factor here. Because you could wake up in a complete down draw based on news headlines alone!
GBP/USD Weekly Long Prediction This one prediction may or may not take long to form at all. I decided to take this pair on a weekly outook to be sure of no noise on the smaller time frames. With everything going on with this Brexit deal I'm sure there will be some volatility in this pair. I would play it safe but setting a small trade on this pair. Once the pair breaks through the 1st resistance zone and becomes support I would think about doubling up on this pair for the long haul.
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GBPUSD: Recovery in Sight near term?GBPUSD is now falling for 9 straight trading days. At this moment, It is at the Long-term bullish trend line. Besides, it has also hit the bottom of the newly created channel(blue channel).
So, it would be interesting to see if you see the formation of any bullish candlesticks here from where traders can long.
I am personally looking to BUY here at 1.2830 and scale buys all the way till 1.2770 if it goes there.
Cable almost ready for a small bounce up - Breaker setup Taking this long setup on the cable. We have filled in the gap we are testing the Daily breaker now which is bullish.
But there is a nice level (8h breaker) in the daily breaker. Wich i expect price to go to before going up.
It makes perfect sense if you look at the DXY where i expect price to go up a little more to fill in that liquidity gap where price traded inefficiently look image below
"IF" descending Triangle Breaks Upwards, BIG BUY on GBPUSDDuring the last 3-4 weeks, we have been seeing a subdued price action on GBPUSD due to lack of any Brexit related Headlines or meaningful progress.
However, looking at the H4 chart, you can clearly identify three things:
1) A DESCENDING TRIANGLE indicated by the light pink area in the chart.
2) A strong resistance trend line(royal blue line) which has stopped the rallies in GU multiple times.
3) A support zone(yellow rectangle) which is VERY STRONG. It has managed to stop the fall 6 times(indicated by green arrows).
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Based on these factors, there are two distinct possibilities:
1)Bullish Case: The support zone holds, price breaks the resistance line(blue line), consolidates above it and then moves towards 1.33.
2)Bearish Case: The support zone breaks down, and the price continues to go down.
However, I prefer the bullish case and I will explain it in a moment.
For the BULLISH scenario, aggressive traders can BUY between 1.2980-1.3000 and set TPs at 1.3080, 1.3150 and 1.33 respectively.
SL should be placed below 1.2920.
Conservative traders can wait for the price to break the trend line(blue line) and BUY after a successful retest. (I have indicated it with arrows in my chart)
This is the daily chart. As you can see, we have a Golden cross on the daily chart which is usually a very bullish sign.
The Golden cross happened around 1.2920. So, as long as price manages to stay above this, we can continue to look for "BUY ON DIPS" trades.
NOTE: The last time a Golden Cross happened on GBPUSD, Price rallied almost 1800 pips that year.
GBPUSD - Coiling like a SnakeThe cable has slowly being coiling like a snake, ready to break higher out of its range. We have a divergence between MACD and price to confirm the move.
Trend lines are only draw to highlight the divergence between the MACD and price so they are not use in my analysis.
All other higher time frames are bullish, where we have a target of 1.6390, which is the POC( point of control) on the monthly chart.
UK is Still Careening Towards A No Deal BrexitA few points to keep track of before the potential final vote on May's deal.
First, whats being voted on is entirely different from previous votes. The details are complicated, but essentially the previous failed votes are now broken up into two main sections (which is apparently contrary to previous UK laws passed, but whatever) and the EU asserted that it would only grant an extension if one of those two parts (the Withdrawal Agreement) is passed. The Political Declaration is less important and can be renegotiated later.
Second, if she doesn't get it passed, then the likelihood of a no deal Brexit will be much more priced into cable than previously. Traders are already seeing this with yesterday's deep losses which was the worst single day loss since December 10th 2018. We can also see the shift in the trend from the sheer number of exponential moving averages edging above the price of the pair.
Third, although May not getting her deal passed would be quite negative for financial markets (which is somewhat more expected at this point despite her offering her premiership for her passing her deal) this does not automatically mean the UK will leave the EU without a deal. In fact, I would even argue that without passing a deal the two most likely options then become either an extension of the April 12 deadline to May-June or steps will be taken to progress towards not leaving the EU altogether.
Fourth, what happens if (probably when) May loses Friday's vote is up in the air. She could then resign, or there could be another vote of no confidence, or there could be another renegotiated process with the EU, or she could try to get the vote passed again, or...you get the picture. Its really up in the air what happens after Friday, clearly this whole process is a mess and quite confusing, and seemingly the desires of the EU, of May's government, and of the House of Commons differ so significantly that even after almost three years of this whole process we still do not know if, when, or on what terms the UK would leave the EU.
If May's vote fails, it has been suggested that she could simply aim for a customs union then and in fact this was the least unpopular indicative vote in the HoC yesterday. Because of this, it likely remains the most likely deal that could pass HoC. In this case, it seems that an extension beyond April 12 will be required and the EU will probably hold an emergency meeting after Friday if her vote fails.
If her vote doesn't fail, then its all said and done. The UK would leave the EU on April 12. But don't expect such an anti-climactic outcome to come to fruition in this real life political drama. For more, check out www.anthonylaurence.wordpress.com
Brexit has More Bad Outcomes Than Good Ones At This PointFrom the BBC an hour ago, "Wednesday saw Mr Bercow once more cite parliamentary precedent to rule that another vote could only take place if the proposal tabled by the government was "substantially different" from the previous one."
Without PM May's deal, there is no obvious direction for Brexit to go forward with regarding any significant deal between the UK and EU. If Bercow does not let May put forth her deal again later this week, he may not let her put it up at all. In that event, the UK is headed towards a no deal which is still not priced into cable.
Like I've said many times, I'm not all in short just yet, but my general view is that cable is way overpriced especially since there are many more bad outcomes than good ones at this point.
Cable Long!Ahead of the big date : 29 March 2019, the pair has shown to be increasingly volatile with highs of approx. 1.3350 & lows of 1.2500 due to uncertainty in the market related to a no deal Brexit.
We anticipate that Brexit will be further delayed as Betfair is offering 1.2 for the UK to not leave the EU by the 29/3/19 and 5.7 for otherwise. A delayed Brexit would be bullish for the pair as the "fear" relating to a no deal Brexit would be temporary postponed.
Entry at this price is possible but carries a high risk as support is weak at this level.
Target Entry : 1.28491
TP : 1.32685
SL: 1.26477
R/R - 2.08
GBPUSD - Trend Continuation Trade *Fibonacci & Trendline*Here is a fairly high Reward:Risk trade set up for next week.
GBPUSD is approaching the outer bullish trendline for a 3rd touch and this also coincides with the Fibonacci 0.618 retracement zone. This is a very simple trend continuation set up with a target price of 1.35 achieving a high reward ratio.
However! - It takes 3 touches of a trendline to confirm it. So as of now... price could break out and prove this trendline to be false. There are 2 ways you can handle this information.
1) Go for it anyway and accept the risk in return for the reward.
2) Wait for a confirmed bounce off the trendline, wait for the bearish CTL to be broken and then go long to 1.35 which should still provide a good R:R ratio anyway.
Enjoy :)
EURGBP: buy signalOn the H4 chart of EURGBP, a bullish divergent squat bar has been formed. This signal is supported by the fact that there is the AO indicator divergence and, with high probability, the price has finished the 5th Elliott wave in a down cycle. Going long with the expectancy of the ABC zigzag using trading levels marked on the chart.
Cable Relies on Brexit NewsWith no major data releases today, Cable is expected to react on non-economic news, notably any developments coming from Theresa May's visit to Northern Ireland to meet political parties. The meetings will provide them with the opportunity to discuss the Ireland backstop, the political impasse which still plagues any potential Brexit agreement. Yesterday, European Commission President Jean-Claude Junker allowed the possibility for adding to the existing agreement, something that the UK Prime Minister will seek to exploit.
Technically, Cable is trading between 1.2986 and 1.2935, the Fib. 23.6% and 38.2% levels respectively. The overall short-term trend, according to the MACD indicator, appears to be on the upside, with a similar reading coming from the Stochastics. The two levels appear to be quite important for the pair, especially on the Support side, given that it has been trading in this channel for hours, despite a small breakaway yesterday morning.
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