Cableshort
Keep calm and sell GBPMacro fundamentals
Uncertainty remains until GE on June 8.
Even after GE, Brexit uncertainty remains.
This is GBP negative in the medium term.
Sentiment
Speculative short positioning is NOT overextended, as was the case a few months ago. There is room for large speculators to build net short GBP positions.
Market sentiment was very GBP positive until recently. Market has been caught off-guard. More room for Sterling downside.
Technicals
Broken key support levels as in chart. Next target 1.26
US dollar
Dollar strength may resume from oversold territories heading into NFP. In any case, risk for further USD downside is diminished in the near term.
Sell #GBPUSDLooking for the bearish shark at currently level to get the ball rolling then the H&S longer term to drop it further
Target 12777
Cable Exhaustion: Fundamentals back in playBulls getting exhausted.
This was simply a short squeeze with no fundamental catalyst.
Strong bearish divergence on 4H chart.
Fundamentals should come back into play.
Brexit likely to have negative effect on UK growth. Monetary policy divergence vs Fed and global USD shortage remains.
Real money will begin to flow out of the UK, serving as the catalyst for the next short leg in Cable.
GBPUSD SHORT on 4HOUR CHARTPrice action rallied up into the 1.2769 region and began to consolidate between that level and the 1.2859 level. There is major resistance just above this consolidation zone with an equal measured move completing at 1.2864, a 1.618 extension of the AB leg coming in at 1.2903, and a 61.8 retracement level at 1.2854. I am looking to go enter on a confirmed break of the consolidation to the downside, with initial targets just above the 1.26 level
GBPUSD Short at/near 1.30Cable breaking out of range and closed the week above prior high suggest the move up is not done yet.
How high can cable go before a recovery / continuation down?
1.3000 Why? Because its the yearly central pivot point and look left its also a gap where price accelerated lower.
The conservative target is around 1.2550. The more aggressive target is back to range low around 1.22 - 1.20
Tactical traders can buy the move into 1.30 ofcourse. But its not the ideal long in terms of asymmetric risk/reward.
GBPUSD SHORT: Forget technicalsBrexit = uncertainty until 2020.
USD = rate hikes, fiscal stimulus, normal mean reversion of 10Y term premium, $10 trillion global dollar debt.
This divergence should continue to push GBPUSD lower, even if the BoE decides to hike rates in the face of rising CPI.
GBPUSD Bull FlagWe can see a bull flag that formed inside the chanel indicating a move up, and price already closed outside the flag during market close. But I will be looking to short this at the top of the channel.
SL: 1.2570
TP: 1.2050
Sterling heading for the 1.21 level?Good Evening Traders,
The pound has broken through key support and resistance, now at the sloping support level. After the key S/R being broken, we had a retrace and then a continuation of the down trend. I believe the sterling now has the momentum to head back to the 1.21 level, previously seen post October flash crash. With only months before Prime Minister, Theresa May triggering article 50, the cable lacks strength with uncertainties remaining high. In the meantime, I'll be watching for a potential price squeeze, otherwise a break of the sloping support.
TWITTER: BrightForex
Many thanks,
Ike
GBP USD My 2017 first setup for cableHi
Invalidation level for this setup is 1.2385 ,, If the wave ii breaks above invalidation level than this setup is no more valid .
Take the trade as soon as the c of ii completes . ( Potential area = 1.2350 )
SL = 1.24000
Target = 1.21850
Move SL to break even at 1.23000
Regards
$GBPUSD Brexit fractalFollow the pre-Brexit into current price/action gives you a little bit more recovery, say 1.30, and then another 15c crash as we hit hard Brexit before March 2017. Just a fractal - the fundamentals have to happen as well!
This does NOT conflict with my short-term long post.
$GBPUSD looks like run-in to Sep 16 meetingI have listed the BoE rate set dates, and the pattern of price/action is similar to run up to the 9 Sep meeting. The parallel channel provides additional evidence.
Be warned, my record on cable isn't that great. For example, more Brexit delay news would trump technicals. Funny how everyone is using that word these days.
Head and Shoulder PatternHead and Shoulder Pattern has completed on the cable, however I'm curently waiting for the break of the neckline, then a re-test of the neckline for entry.
GBPUSD; Long Term Bearish ScenarioCable seems to have long way to go south. After breaking out of the massive range on Brexit fears, the bearish plunge has a target of around parity for this pair. Any upward move could be considered a short opportunity for long term traders.
Good luck,
Ali Sharifazadeh, CFTe
CABLE SHORT TO 1.30: Fundamental and TechnicalGBPUSD is trading above 1.33 today, despite the broad risk-off sentiment which has seen JPY up on the day.
Fundamentally: Fed members are hawkish, and at least 1 rate hike is on the table this year. September is a close call - and if we believe the hawkish rhetoric of the FOMC recently - the market is underpricing a rate hike in September. This is bullish for USD.
The UK has seen a slew of good data, however the risks of Brexit remain, as well as the uncertainty about the process itself. Furthermore, it is likely that BoE cut rates in November to protect the economy from such risks, in the event they do arise. QE is still ongoing, however GBPUSD trades above pre-QE levels. This may mean Sterling is overvalued in the near term.
Technically: there is strong resistance at 1.345 / 1.35. The hourly chart shows strong divergence above 1.34. There is much risk to the downside - 500 pips till the post-Brexit low of 1.28.
CFTC data: a few weeks ago, GBP shorts were at record highs. Since then, shorts have reduced. This suggests there is potential for shorts to start building positions again, and that the GBP short squeeze came to an end when Cable was abruptly rejected from 1.345.
Many major banks forecast Cable below 1.30 by the end of the year. I agree with this, and am short from 1.33 until 1.30, after which I will re-enter short on pullbacks or on a clear break of 1.30.
GBP/USD SHORT? ENTRY@1.33070 STOP@1.34720 TARGET@1.29729Strong rebound seen here on the daily chart. Before I look to enter this trade, I would have to be sure that sellers are in fact in control of price. Therefore I will keep an eye on the lower time frames to gauge confirmation, and look to enter on the daily time frame.
GBPUSD H&SNice H1 Head and shoulders forming. will be looking to get short at the right shoulder. once price breaks the neck line i expect a retrace back the neck and then drop again
CABLE SHORT TO 1.30: Fundamental and TechnicalGBPUSD reached 1.326 today off the back of a strong manufacturing PMI (53.3 vs 49.0 consensus).
Fundamentally: Sterling should remain pressured, as manufacturing has a limited contribution to UK GDP, and the uncertainty of Brexit still looms. As long as this uncertainty remains, BoE should still look to cut rates and maintain QE.
Technically: There is strong resistance at 1.325-1.327, from which Cable was rejected on the 24th and 26th of August.
Furthermore, end of month (August) flows were unusually positive for Cable, suggesting that there may be room for further downside in September.
Risks: the major risk for Cable shorts at present is the UK Construction PMI and US NFP on Friday. However, an above-expectations NFP report would set the stage for continued dollar strength heading into the FOMC decision on September 21.
Also, a break of 1.328, sustained through 1.33, may make a short trade on Cable invalid - at which point we would look to hedge our short position until 1.35.
GBPUSD - Potential SHORT - Week Commencing 29th August 2016Last week, Yellen stated that positive US reports have opened up the idea of a rate hike in September and we will need to see more positive US reports for the rate hike to be confirmed.
This acted as a huge catalyst on Friday allowing the US Dollar to break TL on most pairs. As it stands the Dollar is looking bullish with investors waiting for US reports to solidify expectations of a rate hike. The next big report will be the US non farm payroll, scheduled to be released on 02/09/2016. This report is forecasted to be lower than the previous month but a higher than expected result will definitely provide the right catalyst and help the dollar continue its bull run.
On Friday, price broke the bullish TL on GBPUSD after retesting and failing to close above the 71% fib line. In the coming week we expect price to retest the recently broken TL and continue down to the 1.29000 level as speculation for a September rate hike increases.
GBPUSD High Potential ShortSell on the Pullback after Breakout of trend line.
TP 1 @ 1.312
TP 2 @ 1.302
SL above pullback high.
