CAC40 Rejoins Channel, Technicals Flash OverboughtWhile the CAC40 gave traders an almost perfect technical upward channel for January February and most of March, that channel was broken last week only to be somewhat regained over the past few sessions. It still does not know however if that channel support line is now resistance or still support. Moving averages all signal upward momentum while bull bear sentiment and RSI flash that this index is overbought. I'm not confident in equities right now. They all seem overbought and tend to be universally stagnant. Let's see how much further we can go though.
CAC 40 CFD
Former Support Channel as Resistance?This is such an interesting technical channel that we saw stemming back from December 2018. While, it failed to continue and broke through, it seems like now price action wants to use that former lower section of the channel that was support as resistance. However, this one is not as perfect as the channel that had formed as price action is creeping back into the channel. Either way, this one is still a fun one to watch considering how technically perfect it was acting for quite a while.
Channel broken a bit early, but could indicate bear marketMy call on CAC40 is changed from long to neutral now that global markets are increasing their fear on a global slowdown. This is evident in markets around the world as Asian markets plunged today as did European. US is set to be down as well. Overall, the channel break is incredibly disheartening for those expecting higher gains as it was a huge move down (3 percent). If you were not in this trade closer to the bottom, you may have missed your chance. If you didn't sell before this dip then you may have made some money. For those shorter-term traders, you may have already missed the train. We could get back in this channel tomorrow, but that seems unlikely. I'm actually more neutral to short than neutral, but Trading View only gives us three options so I prefer not a drastic shift from long to short. Let's see what happens over the next few days.
What is the next target of #CAC 40 ?The trend of the CAC 40 in recent years is an uptrend.
in October 2011 the Cac has undergone a technical correction of 1200 points and then very quickly he returned to his upward trend, in October 2015 after a long rise the Cac has made technical correction of 1000 points pretty much like the first time and quickly took it back bullish trend, in October 2017 the Cac has made a technical correction of 800 points and at the moment it is in progress and normally should be redone as the last two completed times a rise is exceeded the last record price.
The Cac will seek a goal to reach and the point of the Double Top (6100) in 14% of the current price is probably possible
Buy Cac 40:
Entry Price: 5290
Take Profit: 6100
Stop Loss:5000
SHORT SHORT CAC40 approaching resistance, potential drop!CAC40 is approaching our first resistance at 5184.1 (horizontal swing high resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , 100% Fibonacci extension ) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 4950(38.2% Fibonacci retracement , Horizontal overlap support, 61.8% Fibonacci extension )
Stochastic (89,5,3) is also approaching resistance where we might see a corresponding drop in price.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
SHORT CAC40 approaching resistance, potential drop!CAC40 is approaching our first resistance at 5184.1 (horizontal swing high resistance, 61.8% Fibonacci retracement , 100% Fibonacci extension ) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 4950(38.2% Fibonacci retracement , Horizontal overlap support, 61.8% Fibonacci extension )
Stochastic (89,5,3) is also approaching resistance where we might see a corresponding drop in price.
Trading CFDs on margin carries high risk. Losses can exceed the initial investment so please ensure you fully understand the risks.
CAC40 approaching resistance, potential drop!CAC40 is approaching our first resistance at 4931 (horizontal overlap resistance, 38.2% & 38.2% Fibonacci retracement, 61.8% Fibonacci extension ) where a strong drop might occur below this level pushing price down to our major support at 4556 (61.8% Fibonacci retracement , horizontal pullback support)
Stochastic (34,5,3) is also approaching resistance where we might see a corresponding drop in price.
SHORT: Monthly 50-EMA hit, among other thingsThere are a lots of alignments. I believe it is time to go short deeply for aggressive traders by going against the bullish "wave analysts" advocates. There is clearly an hierarchy here. People are starting to be bullish post "low vol" breakout. Don't go long the climax. Study what happened in previous decades before stock market crashes.
SHORT: Pullback to the weekly 200-EMA among other thingsThe CAC40 pulled back to the breakout level, completed different patterns and reached their targets. I know that some people studying waves believe we could still go up, but I think there should be quite a good sell-off during the next week. I could indeed be wrong, so we shall see. I've noticed that a few rarer or uncommon patterns appeared. Need to study hard on those. Elliott Waves are also more important than one may think.
Either a triple top or an inverted H&S: Crucial week1) Most indices retraced 50%, and we are at a very important turning point: if indices breakout cleanly there resistance (for instance SP500 at 2610.8, among other ones) then I would reassess my short bias as we would go back to potentially bullish territory (however, this would mean that the world and its economy become rosier --- no more issues!). The DAX could then retrace everything back up and reintegrate previous broken support levels.
2) In case it doesn't work out, then a triple top could be validated if a clean breakout occurs as well. We could retest all the leg down (80-100%). As volume is decreasing, I believe we had fake rallies and simply witnessed a great technical bounce (see monthly charts) while retracing a down run on US indices.
We shall see, everything has to be decided tonight and in the following days in my humble opinion.