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Cad-jpy

💡Don't miss the great sell opportunity in CADJPYTrading suggestion: ". There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested resistance line (105.60). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . CADJPY is in a range bound, and the beginning of a downtrend is expected. . The price is above the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic support. . The RSI is at 46. Take Profits: TP1= @ 105.00 TP2= @ 104.71 TP3= @ 104.21 TP4= @ 103.70 TP5= @ 103.26 SL: Break Above R2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated!❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader? Now, It's your turn! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Short
by ForecastCity_World
12
💡Don't miss the great sell opportunity in CADJPYTrading suggestion: ". There is still a possibility of temporary retracement to the suggested resistance line (105.60). if so, traders can set orders based on Price Action and expect to reach short-term targets." Technical analysis: . CADJPY is in a range bound, and the beginning of a downtrend is expected. . The price is above the 21-Day WEMA, which acts as a dynamic support. . The RSI is at 47. Take Profits: TP1= @ 105.00 TP2= @ 104.71 TP3= @ 104.21 TP4= @ 103.70 TP5= @ 103.26 SL: Break Above R2 ❤️ If you find this helpful and want more FREE forecasts in TradingView . . . . . Please show your support back, . . . . . . . . Hit the 👍 LIKE button, . . . . . . . . . . . Drop some feedback below in the comment! ❤️ Your Support is very much 🙏 appreciated! ❤️ 💎 Want us to help you become a better Forex / Crypto trader ? Now, It's your turn ! Be sure to leave a comment; let us know how you see this opportunity and forecast. Trade well, ❤️ ForecastCity English Support Team ❤️
Short
by ForecastCity
4
CADJPY going lower for the next 2 monthsThe CADJPY pair has broken below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on July 29 and has stayed below it since then, being unable to made a break-out and return to the bullish trend of the past year. The longer it fails to do so, the more selling accumulation we will see. In fact both in terms of RSI and MACD, this resembles the sequence of June - September 2021, where the price again fell below the 1D MA50 and being unable to recover it, it made consistent Lower Lows. Based on the RSI Lower Highs and MACD Cross symmetries, it appears that, relative to the 2021 pattern, we are still near the start of this bearish move. The target is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) - 1W MA50 (red trend-line) cluster, which has been the pair's long-term Support Zone since November 2020. On the other hand, a candle close above the 1D MA50 can provide a short-term rise towards the Higher Highs trend-line where an even more comfortable sell position can be taken. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short
by TradingShot
3
CADJPY H1: Bullish outlook seen, further upside above 104.30On the H1 time frame, prices are holding above an ascending trend line and approaching the support zone at 104.30, in line with the 100% Fibonacci extension which presents an opportunity to play the bounce to the next resistance target at 105.20. Prices are holding above the 50 EMA as well, supporting the bullish bias. Failure to hold above the 104.30 support zone could see prices push lower to the next support zone at 103.90.
Long
by T3-Consultancy
CAD/JPY BULLISH PATTERNCAD/JPY currency pair had formed a breakthrough on a triangle pattern on the 4H graph which might suggest a bullish movement of it. MACD Histogram is above the 0 line and both RSI moving averages are above the neutral 50, both indicating potential bullish movement. If this movement gets confirmed the pair might try to reach back its levels of 106.5 but if the opposite scenario occurs, the pair might test its previous low on 102.95 Risk Disclosure: Trading Foreign Exchange (Forex) and Contracts of Difference (CFD's) carries a high level of risk. By registering and signing up, any client affirms their understanding of their own personal accountability for all transactions performed within their account and recognizes the risks associated with trading on such markets and on such sites. Furthermore, one understands that the company carries zero influence over transactions, markets, and trading signals, therefore, cannot be held liable nor guarantee any profits or losses.
Long
by legacyFXofficial
CAD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSCAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE The CAD has enjoyed far more upside in the past few weeks than we anticipated. We’ve been cautious on the currency given Canada’s dependency on the US (>70% of exports) where the clear signs of a faster than expected slowdown and possible recession should deteriorate the growth outlook for Canada. Apart from that, the risks to the Canadian housing market can negatively impact consumer spending as interest rates rise higher at aggressive speed. Potentially damaging the wealth effect created by the rapid rise in house prices since covid. However, despite the risks to the economy and the outlook, markets still price in a very favourable growth environment for Canada, also supported by a big push higher in terms of trade due to the rise in commodity prices. Furthermore, despite clear warning signals, the BoC has chosen to ignore the negatives and has stayed surprisingly hawkish, hiking 1.0% in July. The market’s reaction after the 1.0% was quite telling though, with the CAD pushing lower aggressively afterwards. This suggests that those players that were long the CAD took the hike as a good reason to take profit at the highs, or it could be the market pricing in a possible pause for the BoC in the months ahead because hiking so aggressive now means reaching a level to pause their cycle much faster. Either way, we remain cautious on the CAD and favour short-term catalysts that provide us with shorting opportunities. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Catalysts that see further upside in Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. The correlation has been hit and miss in recent weeks though. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. Even though lots of tightening has been priced for the BoC, any overly hawkish comments from the BoC this week could trigger some short-term upside, but with a 75bsp hike already priced the risk is more titled to the downside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. With a lot of tightening priced into STIRs, and a 100bsp hike providing no support for the CAD, we think risks are skewed lower, and any big downside surprises in CPI this week could offer decent shorting opportunities for the CAD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook due to the slowdown in the US, as well as rising risks to the consumer and the housing market, and potential negative impact for commodities like oil, we remain cautious on the currency (even though it’s moved much higher than we anticipated). With a lot of good news priced in, our preferred way of trading the CAD is lower on clear short-term negative catalysts. JPY FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH BASELINE The Yen has seen a lot of depreciation this year driven by very negative fundamentals. Yield differentials has by far had the biggest negative impact. With other major central banks starting aggressive hiking cycles, it has lifted yields quite dramatically, which has seen yields like US10Y push considerably higher than 10-year Japanese yields capped at 0.25% by yield curve control. That means dovish monetary policy remains a key negative driver. Despite inflation starting to push higher in Japan, and despite the lessons from other central banks now struggling with inflation last seen since the 70’s, the bank has once again at their June meeting stayed stubbornly dovish keeping yields capped at 0.25%. At this stage the bank is playing a very dangerous game by allowing the JPY to weaken, further adding to inflationary risks. Their dovish persistence remains a negative for the JPY. Even though the JPY is considered a safe haven, inflows has been limited compared to other cycles. The reason is Japan’s current account surplus (a main reason for safe haven appeal) has deteriorated due to the rise in commodity prices. Japan imports over 90% of their energy commodities, so continued rise in oil prices has added to downside and eroded some safe haven appeal. The BoJ and MoF’s reluctance to intervene to stop the rapid depreciation in the JPY in recent weeks has been noticeable. As long as they just voice their dislike but fail to act, the market will keep testing them and shorting the JPY. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalyst that triggers speculation that the BoJ could drop YCC or hike rates or both (big upside surprises in inflation) could trigger upside in JPY, which means inflation data will be important to keep on the radar. Catalysts that trigger meaningful corrections in US10Y (less hawkish Fed, faster deceleration in US inflation, faster deceleration in US growth) or meaningful bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions from the JPY. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in key commodities like Oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage) could trigger bullish JPY reactions. Any intervention from the BoJ or MoF to stop JPY depreciation (buying the JPY or giving firm and clear lines in the sand for USDJPY) could offer decent reprieve for the JPY. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With yield differentials playing such a huge role for the JPY, any catalysts that push US10Y higher (more aggressive Fed, further acceleration in US inflation, better-than-expected US growth data) could trigger further bearish price action for the JPY. Any catalyst that creates further upside in oil prices (further supply concerns, geopolitical tensions) poses downside risks for Japan’s current account surplus and could trigger further bearish reactions in the JPY. Further reluctance from the BoJ and MoF to address the concerning depreciation in the JPY, and further reluctance from the BoJ to pivot away from very dovish policy is a continued negative driver for the JPY to keep on the radar. If the BoJ pushes back against calls for a policy shift despite upside surprise in CPI could trigger further JPY downside. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture remains bleak for the JPY, especially after the BoJ once again stuck to the same overly dovish script at their June meeting. As long as US10Y gains ground and as long as the BoJ stays stubbornly dovish and no push back is made against the JPY weakness from the BoJ or MoF, the bias remains lower. Take note that positioning has been stretched (tactically and CFTC) for some time, which means we don’t want to chase the JPY lower and bullish reactions can see outsized upside. It also means watching incoming CPI data closely as any huge upside surprises could trigger speculation of a possible policy shift.
by thunderpips
1
CADJPY Trading plan based on simple break-outs.The CADJPY pair has been consolidating within a Triangle pattern since the June 08 High and basically supported by the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since early March. The 1W MACD is close to a Bearish Cross and with the 1D RSI practically neutral, the pattern draws similarities with the peak formation of June 2021. That sequence eventually broke below and turned the 1D MA50 into a Resistance, before marginally breaking below the Support. Currently the new Support is at 98.100 and this is best traded on break-outs. A break below the 1D MA50 again, will be a sell, aimed at 98.100 and quite possibly contact the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). On the other hand, a break above the 107.100 High, will be a buy signal, targeting the -0.5 Fibonacci extension around 111.500. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
1