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Cadlong

USDCAD Could provide a nice bullish move due to CAD CPIThere are several reasons why we could see a bullish move in the USD/CAD currency pair: 1. **Moderating Canadian Inflation**: Multiple sources, including RBC Economics, NBF, and CIBC, suggest that Canadian inflation is expected to moderate in November. This is primarily driven by factors like a drop in gasoline prices, easing food price growth, and a slowdown in core inflation measures. A moderation in inflation can weaken the Canadian dollar (CAD) as it reduces the pressure on the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates, potentially leading to a bullish move in USD/CAD. 2. **Headline CPI within Target Range**: RBC Economics points out that the expected drop in inflation would bring the headline CPI back within the Bank of Canada's target range of 1%-3%. This suggests that there may not be excessive inflationary pressures, which can be interpreted as a positive for USD/CAD bulls. 3. **Economic Backdrop and Interest Rates**: The analysis mentions that further softening in the economic backdrop and slower price growth should reinforce the idea that the Bank of Canada is unlikely to hike interest rates further in the near term. This anticipation of a pause in rate hikes can weigh on the CAD, making USD/CAD more attractive to traders. 4. **Core Inflation Deceleration**: The expectation of continued deceleration in core inflation measures, such as CPI-trim and CPI-median, indicates that underlying inflationary pressures may not be a concern. This can weaken the CAD and support a bullish move in USD/CAD. 5. **Caution Regarding Rate Cuts**: It's worth noting that the central banks, including the Bank of Canada, are expected to be cautious about declaring victory over inflation too early and pivoting to rate cuts. However, the anticipation of an extended pause in rate hikes rather than an immediate pivot to rate cuts can be seen as a positive factor for USD/CAD bulls. In conclusion, the expected moderation in Canadian inflation, the potential return of headline CPI within the target range, the economic backdrop, and the likelihood of a pause in rate hikes by the Bank of Canada, along with continued core inflation deceleration, are factors that could support a bullish move in USD/CAD.
Long
by Wiiso
CADCHF - Are We Still In An Upwards Trend?Analysis: Looking at the chart things may look bearish to the untrained eye as we've had a strong recent move to the downside, however price to us still looks bullish and this is the last line of defence so we expect that this is where most of the bulls will be wanting to push price higher from. We still think that price is in an upwards trend as we haven't broken the most recent higher low. Whilst some people may think we put in another higher low at the top of the move, we didn't as price didn't break higher so we never formed a higher low, just a higher high, meaning that our area we have marked out is where the most recent higher low is. This may be difficult to understand but this is how we see the market trend. At this area we have marked out, in the past we can see that this level has held as both support and resistance so we'd expect this to happen again, making it a great possible entry zone. To add to our idea we also have the 50% fib retracement level which has been tagged so we expect to see some sort of bullish pressure from this level as this is where some bulls will be sat at wanting to hold price and push it higher, which goes in favour of our idea. Fundamentally the CAD is the 4th strongest major currency compared to the CHF which is the 3rd weakest major currency, so this is already favouring our bullish idea. As of the most recent report for institutional positioning we did see a big decrease in long positions but we saw a 2 times bigger decrease in short positions so this is bullish for the CAD. For the CHF, in regards to institutional positioning we did see an increase in both long and short positions so this is slightly bullish for the CHF, but not as bullish as the CAD is. Tomorrow we have some big news coming out for the CAD so this could give us the catalyst that we need to see price head to the upside and for the CAD to make its bullish run. Fundamentals are what actually drive the markets, so whilst the technicals don't look that clear to the untrained eye, the fundamentals are clear. The CAD is stronger then the CHF. This is why overall we are bullish on CADCHF. Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read and responded to. We any comments at all so thank you! Stay Safe - The JPI Team Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does too. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Long
by jpeacockfx
12
AUDCAD - CAD Strength On The Horizon?Analysis: Price has been in this downwards trend for a while now and we're expecting this to continue. Price has been forming a series of lower highs and lower lows which confirms our thesis that price is trending to the downside. Recently we saw price break below a key level of support and we're now seeing that same level get retested for resistance and we suspect that it will hold, as support can quite often become resistance and this level has held as resistance in the past before. To add to our idea we've also got the 50% fib retracement level at our area which we expect bears will be sat at wanting to push price to the downside which works with our idea. We've also got a downwards trendline which again we expect sellers will be waiting at, holding and pushing price down further. When we look at the fundamentals the AUD and CAD are both very similar in strength and weakness so there isn't any real bias here however we do still favour the CAD over the AUD as more institutions are exiting out of their short positions on the CAD and are in fact going long instead where as for the AUD we're seeing an increase in both long and short positions by institutions. Another factor why we prefer the CAD over the AUD is the the CAD is heavily related the oil prices. With Canada being the 4th largest oil exporter in the work and with the possibility of oil prices being on the rise again we could see the CAD start to gain some more strength. The AUD did have some positive news that came out yesterday however we don't see this bullishness continuing, especially after the AUD news release later on tonight which we expect will be bearish for the AUD. With all of the confluences factors that we have we get a short bias on this pair at this level so this is a pair that we are interested in. Please feel free to leave any comments you have and like this idea if you agree with us. Any feedback or comments will be read. We appreciate it all. Stay Safe - JPI Disclaimer: This does not constitute as financial advise. We are not responsible for any monetary loss that you endure. Trading is hard to be profitable with and we take losses just like everyone else does to. Our ideas won't always be correct which is why we urge you to always do your own analysis first before entering into the market but please feel free to use our analysis to assist you with yours.
Short
by jpeacockfx
14
CADCHF looking upCADCHF was in a big downtrend but major support zone around 0.67800 made price redirect up The young Uptrend channel is evolving Price has bounced today from the lower channel line at 0.68604 and is coinciding with the 50 EMA So we are most likely waiting for the price to bounce higher up to the 0.692x area. Maybe further to 0.71 To add to this analysis, last week's Thursday and Friday Day candles rejected closes below the 0.69 or 0.688 high levels contributing to the Weekly TF close as a bullish engulfing candle with a positive growth twice the size of the previous week. =========== * If you like this idea please leave a comment so we can talk about it * Remember that it´s never a straight line to the target. * BIG profits to you ALL!!! === I am happy and grateful to the Universe and myself for both teaching me how to trade and multiply my money by thousands My money grows every day. Thank you
Long
by Memo_Mountain
Outlook on USDCAD: Bearish play seenOn the H4 time frame, prices are testing resistance at 1.2650, in line with the descending trend line and 50% Fibonacci retracement where we could see further downside below this level to our support target at 1.2530. This support target coincides with our Fibonacci confluence levels which include the 50% Fibonacci retracement and 100% Fibonacci extension. Stochastic is testing resistance as well where we could see a reversal below this level.
Short
by Salzworth
CADCHF Market Commentary | 1st Jan 2021 First of all I would like to wish to every one who reads this a good year with lots of success and happiness. Now let's get in our topic. CADCHF has not really recovered from the covid market crash, which indicates a slow but steady - yet predictable - direction. We are watching price moving in an ascending channel since the start of August. So for the time being we expect the same direction. With the help of Wave theory, a clean double combo is apparent enough. By using the wave principles and analyzing lower degrees of the movement (see charts below), a sharp bullish move is our best bet.
Long
by GeorgeZii