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Options Idea: Buy The Oct '20 JWN Call Calendar Spread @ $2.35Nordstrom has been a big loser since COVID-19 and is on a long-term downtrend. However, it's been on a short-term uptrend since late August and just blew through its July highs. The next objective will be the early August highs around $17.50. Our goal is to ride the short-term trend for as long as it lasts during September and October. We don’t want to own this stock long-term, but we’ll hitch a ride on this short-term trend with a long-call. Since we’re not long-term owners of JWN we’re buying an Oct. 16 2020 call and we will sell weekly out of the money calls against it to lower cost basis. Look at the yellow trend line for a reference as to where JWN might be and that’s the area to sell weekly out of the money calls against this long call. Make sure your weekly short calls don't run up against the trendline. Here’s how we set-up the trade: Sold the September 11, 2020 $17.5 Call @ 0.25 Bought the October 16, 2020 $15 Call @ 2.60 Our objectives for short call income generation against this position are as follows: Initial Objective: $1.23 (Extrinsic Value of Long Call) Stretch Objective: $2.60 ($0 capital outlay) We on the way toward meeting our initial objective by selling the Sep 11, 2020 call at $0.25 and next week we’ll sell another weekly out of the money call to get closer to our initial objective. 20-JWN-01 Opening Date: Sep 8, 2020 Expiration Date: October 16, 2020 DTE: 38 IV: 93% IV Percentile: 56% Odds of Winning: 36.60% (before selling more short calls) Odds of Losing: 63.40% (before selling more short calls) Win: > 17.35 @ Expiration (before selling more short calls) Loss: < 17.35 @ Expiration (before selling more short calls) Cash Requirements: $235 Chart Legend Green Area: 100% Win Zone. If we finish above or in the green area, we’ve made a profit on our trade. Since our position has a long call that means our potential gain is unlimited after Sep 11, 2020. Up to Sep 11, we are limited in our gain by our short call. Red Area: If we finish in this area we have a loss. The size of the red area is the size of our maximum loss. Since we have no uncovered options, our loss is limited on this trade to the price of our long call minus the credit taking in on our short calls. 1 standard deviation, 2 standard deviation, 3 standard deviation projections from Opening Date to Expiration Date are included. Make sure to follow us on Tradingview for updates on this idea as we continue to reduce our cost basis in this trade.
NYSE:JWNLong
by OptionsCoach
Trade Log NIFTY August 25In my yesterday’s trade log, I said "NIFTY is on it’s way to the upper boundary of the gap -11633. I don't know how fast it can travel, But I expect that target to get achieved in this expiry. If It gets to 11633 in the next two sessions, I plan to take a reversal trade with tight stop loss. Till then, just ride the trend using intraday breakouts." Nothing much has changed. My trades I sold 11500 CALL when the opening range broke. It was covered later. My observations NIFTY had a choppy day. It was 4th straight higher high higher low day. It closed 0.05% up. BANK NIFTY gained 1.13% VIX up 0.44% Advance Decline ratio 21 to 29. Reliance Industries continues to drag by losing 0.65% My view for tomorrow For tomorrow, I don't have clear bias. I think there is not going to be a gap up opening tomorrow. NIFTY did 3 consecutive gap ups. Tomorrow, it may be flat to gap down opening. It needs to be seen how the gap gets bought. Intraday, short trade is more probable if there is no large gap down and NIFTY fails to keep opening range. The support is placed at 11400 and 11360.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
PPL Finally Breaking outI've been waiting for PPL to set up breakout of a few months now, and its finally here, unfortunately it formed a gap to $27.30, so it will go back down to fill that gap, but after the gap is filled the target will be: $31.02, and if it breaks from there we are going back to $36.20. Also me and one of my buddies decided to make our own Trading Community, it is free but right now it's only about 5 people large. Message me if you'd like to help liven the place up a bit. Also I just built a Computer and will be able to do more things... Yay
NYSE:PPLLong
by GoEasyScoobs
Trade Log NIFTY August 13From August 11,12 I had the same view NIFTY likely to have a pending upside for the climax to 11380. And then possible formation of an intermediate top which has to be confirmed by moving down below at least the recent low of 10880. Overall, NIFTY is slow moving and the climax move has not happened yet. There is sideways movement in the tight range of 11240-11360. My trades today I sold the next expiry call on the break of the opening range low. I covered that near the end of the day. My observations for the day NIFTY closed flat again with less than a percent down. BANK NIFTY closed -0.30 % down. VIX down -1.33% Advance Decline ratio is 26 to 23 Tight consolidation range between 11240-11360. NIFTY has given 3 daily closing in the 20 point range. My view for tomorrow I have a bearish view for tomorrow. I consider the 1 hr candle (11.00 AM) which failed the opening gap and for the day, there was no attempt to recover above 11320. This view is invalid when NIFTY stays above 11360.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Observation of Moving Average Order in the SPX on 2HR (Updated)Updated & More Accurate- Interesting alignment between my selection of EMAs, SMAs, and Fib MAs. 2 HR chart. Market could keep going higher as long as this curve upwardly steepens. Resolution --> 3 weeks in during September of 2018, and three weeks in during Feb 2020 are the last two times this distinct sequence occurred. Still getting used to TV; not sure if the chart is clear on the screens of others. 3 weeks in during August 2020, what happens next?
SP:SPX
by apb270
Trade Log NIFTY August 10Review of my weekly opinion Possibility 1 : On Monday, observe the price action in the first hour. Any gap up or break of 10250, will confirm bullish inclination and further upside possible in the 11380-11440 zone. Eventually, when and if Reliance has reached around 2300 levels and NIFTY in this zone, then I’ll enter positional short- reversal trade with SL of 100 points. This possibility played out, only partially. Because closing was not very strong. ======================================================================= My trades today There was a break in the opening range. But it was very weak (2 indecision candles barely above the level) This actually made me look for reversal trade which came soon with breakout failure. I squared it off near the end of the day. Some routine notes NIFTY closed at 11270, nearly same where it opened for the day. BANK NIFTY consolidated and finally settled 0.67% higher. VIX lost 0.30% Advance Decline 32 to 18. Reliance Industries declined 1.16% Open interest data is showing 11200 is being pushed as strong support. Today’s price Action means Today NIFTY sustained a gap up and had failed breaks on both sides of the range. This shows buyers and sellers are in equilibrium. My view for tomorrow I expect a positive day tomorrow with the possibility of a new high. My plan for tomorrow The best opening I expect is flat to mild negative, which should work in favour of bulls where the strength is built for newer high and possible breakout. Gap up attempt above 11330, may not be easily tradable. Weekly view post
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
1
Starbucks (SBUX) - Hangs Around 21 EMAAs you all know, I regularly post pullback trade ideas as stocks pullback to their 21 day EMA. Today, I am looking at Starbucks NASDAQ:SBUX . What's different about this pullback is that Starbucks usually doesnt hang out at the 21 for more than a day or two. However, its been 4 days... so I wonder if the powers that be are on to us! ... just kidding. But in all seriousness, I like this chart. I think that it really shows that support at the 21 EMA is being tested hard and should SBUX close the day out above the 21 EMA or even the 8 EMA on the daily chart (putting it in the Green), then I think next week we could see SBUX go even higher.
NASDAQ:SBUXLong
by UnknownUnicorn6775423
Trade Log NIFTY August 4In my August 3 post, I had said Today is the fourth day for the down move. When I see the reliance chart and NIFTY chart I think touch of support zone 10780-10830 is possible in tomorrow’s session. This zone is where there is a possibility of some sort of bounce. This is the first bounce after correction, so likely to fail. It is better to wait and let the pattern form before in long side trade. I was wrong here. I anticipated 50 more points before the bounce. But NIFTY bounced hard from the 10900 zone. ========================================================================================================================================================== My trades today I bought CALL when NIFTY sustained an initial high. And sold at resistance. I exited early as it was the reverse of the trend. My observations for the day NIFTY reversed the trend on the hourly chart by closing above 11080. It gained 1.87% BANK NIFTY supported 1.99% VIX dropped 5.44% Advance Decline is 32 to 18. Reliance Industries gained 7%+. This alone contributed 117 points Open Interest buildup at 11000 Put option is strong. Indicating conviction amongst the buyers. My view for tomorrow. Considering the momentum NIFTY had on 4 days of downtrend, I treat this bounce as the first bounce, which is likely to fail. But considering the chart of Reliance and BANK NIFTY, I feel there is some more upside up to 100-150 points. For tomorrow, I expect sideways market mostly with touch of 11050 - 11000 area, which should find some buying before NIFTY moves into the second leg of rally towards 11150+
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY August 3I my weekly review post (Link below), I commented, I take consolidation with a negative bias view. The pattern target is 10860. I sense that this week, NIFTY is likely to hit that zone. I need to see if this happens with momentum. There should not be any closing above 11130, If there is any closing above this level, short bias is challenged. If NIFTY crosses above, 11195-11200, actually bias is on the long side. Summary : Bearish consolidation view with target 10860-10900, reversal in view at 11200. ***If there is a gap down below 11000, that will confirm that this time correction may not be shallow. And any close below 10800, means the possibility of more downside.*** There was a gap down opening, so this correction may not be as shallow as others from May 18. From levels and target of pattern perspective, I think NIFTY got there in a day. =============================================================================================================================================== My trades today I sold 11000 CALL anticipating bearish day, I squared it off for the profit near the end of the day. My observations for the day. NIFTY closed the day with the loss of 1.64% BANK NIFTY closed 2.62% lower. VIX gained 4.10%, back above 25. This is not a good sign. Advance Decline ratio for NIFTY is 13 to 37, not as bad as the fall. Reliance Industries caused nearly 44 points on downside. Open Interest showing 11000 -11200 zone is agreeable resistance zone. My view for tomorrow Today is the fourth day for the down move. When I see the reliance chart and NIFTY chart I think touch of support zone 10780-10830 is possible in tomorrow’s session. This zone is where there is a possibility of some sort of bounce. This is the first bounce after correction, so likely to fail. It is better to wait and let the pattern form before in long side trade. My weekly view
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
2
Trade Log NIFTY July 31In my yesterday’s post I had said Tomorrow, I assume a downward bias with the possibility of 11040 and 11000. I’ll see the price action around this area to decide the next steps. If this is really some sort of intermediate top, there should be a gap down and the gap will be sustained for the day. NIFTY touched 11040. The price action around this level is indecisive. There was a bounce, but it was not a sharp bounce. So I need to look at Monday’s price action. If this is a usual correction in a large up move, it is less likely that there is any gap down etc. If there is a gap down with a break below 11000 with force, then I’ll start thinking about the intermediate down trend. ========================================================================================================================================================================= My trades today. Range bound day and filled the gap. I sold 11100 CALL in the morning and later covered it exactly at gap fill support. Since there was tight range consolidation during the initial day, I was careful about reversal around 11040. My observations for the day NIFTY continued its downwards grind, closed 0.26% down. BANK NIFTY closed 0.03% VIX fell 2.16%. Market players sense no uncertainty at this level. Advances to Decline ratio is 34 to 15. Reliance fell around 2%. It dragged the market by 31 points. Option data showing bearish tilt with resistance building around 11200 I’ll do detailed post about my next week’s view over the weekend. Have a great weekend! Link to my yesterday;s post
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY July 29In my post (link below) I expressed my view Typically, such range breakouts have caused 2-3 days of rally in NIFTY in the last 2-3 months. This time we can expect something different. If it is the last leg of the up move, then NIFTY can see a sudden surge in the next 2-3 days into July 30 Expiry. If it is more like an ordinary day, there may be some consolidation confirming the breakout. ======================================================================= Indeed, NIFTY behaved differently. Breakout of the range has failed now. My trades today. When an attempt failed to test morning high, I sold 11250 CALL. I was sure that NIFTY is likely to test 11235 where I had set the target and SL was at the high of the day. NIFTY actually moved much below what I anticipated. I ended up taking out profits at the target. My observations NIFTY closed at 11202 , -0.86% down. BANK NIFTY closed -0.13% down VIX gained 1.99% Advance decline ratio is at 22 to 28 FII and DII data on negative side My view for tomorrow The breakout has failed. I think NIFTY is likely to test other extremes -- retest of 11000 and 10900 initially. This may not happen tomorrow as tomorrow is an expiry day. There may be another attempt towards 11270 which needs to be watched carefully. Tomorrow I am more biased towards consolidation day. July 28 Post
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
4
Trade Log NIFTY July 28 In my post (Link below), I had said NIFTY is in the tight range of 11105 - 11220. It is really difficult to imagine the structure within this range, but considering today’s price action, I think NIFTY may break down tomorrow just a little. But there are multiple support zones from 11000-11050 where support is expected. Review: NIFTY did not break down. It was a clean trending day and breakout of the range. ================================================================================================================================================================== My trades today As per my plan, I bought 11200 CALL on break of 11220 and squared it off near the end of the day. My Observations for the day NIFTY broke out of the range today with 1.52% gain. It has closed above 11300. BANK NIFTY also gained 1.17% VIX cooled off and is now at 23.64 The Advance Decline ratio is good 42 to 8. Option Data indicating range of 1100-11500 for expiry. ================================================================================================================================================================== My view for tomorrow Typically, such range breakouts have caused 2-3 days of rally in NIFTY in the last 2-3 months. This time we can expect something different. If it is the last leg of up move, then NIFTY can see sudden surge in next 2-3 days into July 30 Expiry. If it is more like ordinary day, there may be some consolidation confirming the breakout. My plan for tomorrow No clear bias for tomorrow. So I’ll mostly watch opening and avoid jumping into trade in the initial hour. Reversal trade above 11380. If there is a retest, I need to see how it supports the breakout. My July 28 post
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think