Trade Log NIFTY July 20My view for this week
My Trades
As planned, I did a reversal trade around 11000. I was not quick enough to square it off on the first deep and made losses on the trade.
My observations for the day
NIFTY did not get rejected at 11000. It closed above 11000 by gaining 1.11%
BANK NIFTY gained 1.62%. But It formed a doji candle + Gap opening.
VIX increased 2.30%. This shows some sense of uncertainty amongst the market participants.
Advance Decline ratio is 30 to 19. Not very supportive of the gains.
My view for tomorrow
Trend is up. There is no resistance till 10269. I’ll mostly trade intraday on upside.
As I mentioned in my weekly view, I’ll wait patiently till I see some signs of exhaustion. In line with my Monthly view posted in June, NIFTY is close 400 points away from challenging my monthly view. Hence I don't move fast on either sides.
CALL
Banknifty on the path of Break and make Its a happy short covering since last two days in the BN however a sense of confusion will evade only above the pink box (large). We will take Sell of Call options above this area aggresively and on Monday can witness retracement to test near term support level.
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Trade Log NIFTY July 17In my yesterday’s post I had said
Not much to conclude today. The larger picture does not change. I’ll trade when NIFTY breaks out of the 10550-10820 range.
Some intra day short opportunities only below 10640.
Overall, for the last 2-3 days I was inclined towards a bearish view. I was proved wrong by close above 10815.
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My trades
I bought call on opening when trend change level is crossed, I squared it off near end of the day.
My observations for the day
NIFTY closed 1.5% higher. It formed a bullish candle and closed above 10900.
BANK NIFTY closed 1.7% higher.
VIX supported this up side with drop of 4.75%
Advance Decline ratio positive 41 to 8
Option data suggests a range of 10700-11200.
FII and DII data neutral.
Overall, NIFTY daily structure is looking positive. But still overall I think some caution is required. I’ll detail my view out in the weekly view post.
Have a good weekend!
Trade Log NIFTY July 8Review of yesterday’s view
1. With BANKNIFTY leading, the stage is set for a perfect rally tomorrow. It’s dead simple on charts now that NIFTY will go to 10900-11000 levels.
2. If there is a massive gap up, I won't trade.
3. For brave traders, the reversal opportunity is near 10989.
It was a wrong expectation. NIFTY’s price action is bearish on daily charts now.
My trades today
I did multiple trades today. And survived the last one hour of selling. I plan to do a tutorial post on the same. It turned out to be not so good day for the tutorial trading, as the last 1 hr selling was very strong and not anticipated.
My observations for the day.
1. NIFTY closed -0.87% down. It formed two back to back bearish candles.
2. BANK NIFTY also closed in the red -0.19%.
3. VIX rose 4% indicating uncertainty in the market.
4. Advance Decline ratio is 14 to 35.
5. Sentiment has turned bearish confirmed by open interest data.
Today’s price action was pivotal in many ways. Though some confirmation would be great in the next 2-3 sessions by big red candle.
NIFTY formed dragonfly doji on Tuesday and created bearish engulfing of that doji today.
NIFTY closed below the bearish wedge pattern breakout today. This breakout has failed now.
BANKNIFTY also formed a bearish candle for the day.
All three previous tops had similar price action swing, climax and then fall.
My view for tomorrow
Tomorrow is a weekly expiry day. I am not sure if NIFTY pauses here for tomorrow or continues and fills the gap.
Overall, I’ll trade now with bearish bias for the coming week. 10800 is a clear level which needs to be broken decisively for any thought of an up move.
Trade Log NIFTY July 7Review of my view from yesterday’s post
Strong momentum day in trending market. If there is some consolidation tomorrow below today’s high, it is actually a good sign in favour of continuing positive momentum for 11000.
If NIFTY rallies to make new high again towards 11000, it is very possible that it is near intermediate top. In that case it is better to trade strictly on very short targets. Better to stay out.
Possibility 1 of consolidation. So overall, the setup looks good for a strong up move tomorrow.
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My trades today
In the initial few 15 min candles, I assumed consolidation day. I entered short on the break of support and squared it off at gap support.
Observations for the day
NIFTY closed near high of the day with 0.33% gains.
BANK NIFTY completed some lag with NIFTY which will add fuel to NIFTY now. It closed +1.93%.
VIX fell to 25.10
Open Interest shows a 10500-11000 range for the week.
My view for tomorrow’s session
1. With BANKNIFTY leading, the stage is set for a perfect rally tomorrow. It’s dead simple on charts now that NIFTY will go to 10900-11000 levels.
2. If there is a massive gap up, I won't trade.
3. For brave traders, the reversal opportunity is near 10989.
The conflict I expressed in my weekly post is now resolved, and the chart is telling firm bullish sentiment.
My Weekly review post
Trade Log NIFTY July 6In sync with my weekly view posted
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Possibilities next week
1) BANK NIFTY starts performing in coming two sessions very strongly and NIFTY rushes to 10800-10900 levels. VIX further drops around 22-23 levels.
2) NIFTY fizzles out the rally and drops back or consolidates.
Now for trading action, I do not think this is a good enough reading. Hence I wait. I wait patiently till I get some confirmation
1. If I see BANK NIFTY >> NIFTY and VIX dropping, I participate using intra day positions mostly buying options. I’ll avoid it if there are opening gaps.
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Now possibility 1 played out. And I did action 1.
My trades today
1. I bought a 10700 CALL option which was squared off at the first sign of weakness.
My observations for the day
NIFTY gained 1.47% ~ 5th straight day of higher high daily.
BANK NIFTY gained 1.59%. But did not cross earlier high.
VIX dropped to 25
Advance Decline ratio is 40 to 10.
Option data showing room market participants expect on upside.
My view for tomorrow
Strong momentum day in trending market. If there is some consolidation tomorrow below today’s high, it is actually a good sign in favour of continuing positive momentum for 11000.
If NIFTY rallies to make new high again towards 11000, it is very possible that it is near intermediate top. In that case it is better to trade strictly on very short targets. Better to stay out.
SPY Call SignalSpy might breakout here soon and it has gaps to fill on the upside, very bullish here
Target is 312, then 318, then possibly 322
I called this in the group chat at 309.58
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Trade Log NIFTY July 3In my post yesterday, I had said
1. Today's breakout is not a convincing breakout. Mostly because of it was weekly expiry and BANKNIFTY not supporting the move.
2. I do not anticipate this upswing will have lot of momentum. But with close above 10440, I have changed my view about the trend to bullish .
3. But I wont take overnight long positions. I am reluctant to be completely positive about this breakout.
Nothing changes in the view. Again today's price action more of consolidation above the current high broken.
My trades today
From initial candles, I assumed choppy day and sold near the top of the range and squared it off near previous high breakout.
My observations for the day
1. NIFTY closed 0.53% higher. It was typical low range choppy day.
2. BANKNIFTY closed -0.46% lower. Again 2nd day of divergence in NIFTY and BANKNIFTY.
3. VIX is down -2.79%. Market players are assuming lower movements in the coming weeks.
4. NSE breadth on positive side. 31 advances to 18 declines.
5. Option data suggests 10400-10600 as congestion zone with definitive upper bound of the range to be 11000.
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I'll do a detailed post about my view for next week over the weekend, but here is the sneak peek...
Overall, I sense that the current up move started 10194 on June 25 is likely to be last move before market regime changes. That simply means there are two probabilities ahead
1) New regime is a low volatile time correction. So NIFTY chops around in tighter range, with low inclination, , very low inclination. It could be small up or small down when you take sum of 2-3 months. This is similar to what happened in early part of 2019.
2) New regime could be resume of bear market and we may see fall towards sub 9000 levels rapidly.
Difficult to see the point where this regime change happens but, my view so far is NIFTY is very near in 200 points vicinity of the same.
Have a nice weekend!
WORK Call Alright guys this one is an easy lesson about gaps... they will be filled... Work bounced off the resistance and now has a high chance of filling the gap back up to $37, MACD is already at a call signal and RSI is low, in a demand zone. This should be a logical, easy to understand play.
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Trade Log NIFTY June 24In my yesterday's update, I had said
1. I still think, crossing 10540-10580 is not easy. If with strong sentiment, there is gap up and it gets crossed, it'll be difficult to sustain above that without some retracement in the coming days.
2. For brave traders, there is good reversal trade around 10580 with SL 10700. To be done with options for next months expiry.
3. Considering the that NIFTY is in last week expiry, no target is impossible, but it should eventually consolidate/retrace around these levels.~ 100400-10600.
Sometimes, NIFTY is kind and follows exactly the patterns observed. Today NIFTY reversed from resistance levels 10540. So this anticipation was correct.
My Trades
1. So I was brave today and sold next expiry 10600 CALL. I squared it for the profit near end of day.
My observations for the day
1. NIFTY closed in red -1.58% down. NIFTY also formed bearish engulfing candle.
2. BANKNIFTY closed -3.76% down. BANKNIFTY formed even more bearish candle, engulfing two days worth gains.
3. VIX rose 0.81%
4. Advance Decline ratio is 10 to 39.
4. Option activity tilted on bearish side, support is expected around 10000.
My view for next session
1. Today's price action can be a swing high formation. We need to wait till Friday EOD to confirm.
2. Overall now I assume the trend is consolidation with bearish bias. 10500-10600 is significant resistance, even if gets retested, it will be hard to break it quickly.
3. Tomorrow, being expiry, I dont have idea how it'll go. NIFTY may consolidate a little or fall further towards 10200 levels. I am assuming rather broad range of 10180-10430
June 23 Trade Log
Trade Log NIFTY June 22Going in for today's trade I had assumption that NIFTY likely to face resistance around 10300-10400 zone.
My Trades today:
1. I was not sure of the trade. When there was support taken at opening range low, I bought 10300 CALL and squared it off at Opening range High.
2. My weekend trade was closed for loss. The Credit PUT spread created on Friday.
My observations for the day
1. NIFTY formed small indecision candle. NIFTY closed 0.65% higher.
2. BANKNIFTY faced resistance at the upper boundary of the range and closed 1.74% higher.
3. INDIA VIX increased 1.65%.
4. Advance Decline ration for broader market is 1324 to 542. For NIFTY, it is 37 to 13. Again not great but OK for the movement we had.
6. Option data shows clear bullish bias market players are expecting. 10500 is the next resistance.
My view for tomorrow
1. NIFTY may face consolidation, but brief consolidation in the current zone - 10380-10280.
2. Even it goes little below but stays above 1060, the view remains intact.
3. 10380 does not look like a top. In next attempt, this will be taken out and NIFTY may move towards 10500.
4. Overall, as I discussed in my weekly review. I am not interested much in trading 10300-10600 zone.
5. There is no point in creating short position trade right now.
Weekly view
Trade Log NIFTY June 19In my trade log dated June 18, I had said
1. Considering today's bullish day, there are two most probable possibilities. One, consolidation around 10100-10150. The other being the one more positive day tomorrow.
2. Tomorrow is Friday, so we can have q strong move. Since current trend is positive, the move can be assumed on the upside.
Today my anticipation of strong up move was proved correct.
My trades today.
1. As bias was up, I bought 10100 CALL on crossing previous day high, and closed it end of day.
My observations for the day
1. NIFTY closed positive 1.51%. Breakout yesterday confirmed. NIFTY also closed at high which was the level around March 11.
2. BANKNIFTY closed positive 1.82%.
3. VIX down 4.74%
4. Advance decline ratio is 1277 to 522 for broader market. And 33 to 16 for NSE. This is not as positive as yesterday. Gains mostly because of reliance and Bajaj twins.
5. Option data suggesting range 9900 - 10500.
6. FII inflows positive.
Overall trend in NIFTY is on monthly - bearish, weekly - sideways and daily - bullish. This is kind of situation where one has to trade carefully,
1. All three trends are different
2. VIX is settling in the region of 30. This will ensure we see volatile moves.
Overall I have closed all my long positions and only taking 10000/9900 Debit Put Spread for the weekend. I'll post my detailed weekly view over the weekend. Have a nice weekend!
Yesterday's post
My last weeks view
Trade Log NIFTY June 18In my June 17 post , I had said
1. This is more looking like consolidation of upswing which happened from 8800. Since context swing is up, we have to assume the breakout is more likely on upside.
2. Again 10000 is the level, break of which can start this up move. This can happen tomorrow or Friday.
3. I plan to trade with positive bias and avoid creating short positions as long as NIFTY is trading above 9810-9830 levels.
This time, my hunch played out picture perfect. The break of 10000, happened today and NIFTY closed above 10080.
My trades
1. Clean trending trade today. I bought 9900 CALL next expiry on break of 9940. This I squared off for profit by end of day today.
My observations for the day
1. NIFTY closed 2.13% higher. NIFTY broke out of master candle high today. It also engulfed two previous candle bodies.
2. BANKNIFTY closed 3.74% up. Very similar bullish candle.
3. VIX down 5.70%
4. Advance Decline ratio is good. Marketwide, it is 1396 to 448. NIFTY 40 to 10. This is a good sign.
5. Option data clearly shows the positive bias of market players. 9500 is being strong support.
6. FII and DII data mildly positive.
My view for tomorrow.
1. Considering today's bullish day, there are two most probable possibilities. One, consolidation around 10100-10150. The other being the one more positive day tomorrow.
2. Tomorrow is Friday, so we can have strong move. Since current trend is positive, the move can be assumed on the upside.
I wont change my view till NIFTY sustains above 9850, which is the base of the up move. Only thing to be watch out is since today was a weekly expiry, a confirmation is required by closing above today's high. Closing above 10170, will be a good bullish confirmation of the trend.
My June 17 post
Trade Log NIFTY June 16In my last post I had said
1. I still think it is a consolidation day. I do not have much bearish bias for tomorrow.
2. I think NIFTY is likely to touch the other end of range ~ 10000.
3. Depending on how it reacts near that level will decide the next course of action.
4. There was some congestion in the small range of 9788 - 9870. This is likely to be some low volume action, also occurred near end of the day.
5. 12th June candle is important ~ candle with large body ~ surprise candle. Close above 9972, bullish and close below 9545 is bearish . till then its consolidation inside the big candle.
Reviewing my readings for yesterday
It was a positive day. NIFTY did crossed above 10000 in the morning. NIFTY closed below 9972. So still in consolidation.
My trades today
1. I sold 10000 CALL when Opening range broke down. Then I covered the same as there was volatility spike.
Observations for the day
1. NIFTY closed 1.02% higher. And crossed 10000 level early in the morning. Later went down on news and recovered by EOD.
2. BANKNIFTY similar pattern, closed 1.93%.
3. VIX gained 1.19%.
4. Advance Decline ratio 24:26, not positive.
Some idea about tomorrow
1) Considering the volatile moves for last 3 sessions, I think we may have relatively calm market for next two sessions.
2) I maintain my bias , consolidation with little bullishness.
3) The current situation is NIFTY has formed support around 9600-9700 region. And it has multiple resistances from 10000-10300. The move from 10000-10300 will be choppy.
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Also, this week im going to try to post more than I usually do. And I appreciate everyone trusting my charts and motivating me to keep going through my trading journey.
Trade Log NIFTY June 15I had posted my weekly view yesterday
1. The touch of 9730 has happened today.
2. NIFTY has closed 1st time below 9824-9843, an important level which I watch closely.
My trades today
1. Once again simple trade worked. I sold 9800 CALL when opening range was broken out and then covered it on first sign of weakness.
2. As mentioned in weekly update, I have also created 9300/9400 and 9500/9600 Credit spreads.
Market Action today
1. NIFTY closed 1.6% lower. It was 6th day of bearish action.
2. BANK NIFTY fell 3.59%.
3. VIX rose 5.69%. High volatility during the day.
4. Market wide advance decline ratio is neutral, in NIFTY 8 advances for 42 Declines.
5. 9500 to 10000 is the range traders are expecting. 10200-10500 is likely resistance zone.
My readings of today's market action
1. I still think it is consolidation day. I do not have much bearish bias for tomorrow.
2. I think NIFTY is likely to touch the other end of range ~ 10000.
3. Depending on how it reacts near that level will decide the next course of action.
4. There was some congestion in the small range of 9788 - 9870. This is likely to be some low volume action, also occurred near end of the day.
5. 12th June candle is important ~ candle with large body ~ surprise candle. Close above 9972, bullish and close below 9545 is bearish. till then its consolidation inside the big candle.
Trade Log NIFTY June 12I posted this view yesterday, June 11
1. I'll continue to assume this is consolidation and any close below 9843 will create doubts in my mind.
2. At the same time, I think, the lower end of the range is close or discovered. And NIFTY now should make attempt again towards 10200.
3. I'll wait to see action on Friday and Monday to see if NIFTY goes and takes out 9800-9843 levels.
So for today, who could have imagined the kind of day NIFTY had today? It was volatile roller coaster ride from 9560 to 9995. Anyone who thinks any human being can predict the market, should periodically check the price action today. It has the potential to make even the best oracle feel humble.
Overall, NIFTY did not close below 9843, so I do not have doubts about my view. It is confirmed that now the ride is towards the other extreme of the range, that is 10200-10300 zone. This is confirmed, and mostly Monday will confirm to the same view.
My trades today:
1. First let me say, that I was able to manage my credit spread and got out of the same without any loss.
2. Then when opening range was broken out I bought 9700 CALL and sold it for profit near end of the day.
Buying CALL is little different from my usual trading ways, but there were two strong reasons form that
1) Today was Friday, so gain by theta is not very important.
2) CALL enabled me to limit downside risk, in case NIFTY had continued on gap down.
My observations for the day:
1. NIFTY formed large candle with gain of 0.72%
2. BANK NIFTY closed 0.63%
3. INDIA VIX swung from 10% to 3%.
4. Advance Decline ratio is 29 to 20.
5. From option data, 9600-9700 is a strong support. Resistance at 10000 level.
I am not going to take this action as bullish or bearish, but I am going to assume range first of 9800 - 10300. When it breaks out / down, next leg of trade will be clear. Currently there is higher probability of breaking above 10300 looks more probable. For more, please go through my last weeks view and monthly view.
My view posted on June 07 for the week gone by
My monthly view posted start of this month
I plan to do detailed post over the weekend for next weeks preview.
Trade Log NIFTY June 11In my Trade log yesterday, I blogged
1. Today was a typical consolidation day. Nothing much to read about for me.
2. IF NIFTY goes below 10020 tomorrow, it has not still found lower boundary of the range.
3. If NIFTY moves fast towards 10280, there could be failure of that bounce in 10300 area.
4. I assume 9900 to 10300 range for tomorrows expiry.
The range was breath taking close , but NIFTY managed to hold above 9900. I am still assuming this move as range formation / consolidation.
My trades today.
1. Very simple trading day today. I sold 10100 CALL when previous day low was taken out, then closed it near end of the day for profit.
My observations for the day
1. NIFTY closed in red, 2.12% below.
2. BANK NIFTY in red as well with 2.72% loss.
3. VIX increased marginally 0.76%
4. Market breadth weak. 668 to 1134 across market and 6 to 44 for NIFTY.
5. Open Interest data shows balance of power between buyers and seller. But 10000-10300 resistance zone further strengthened.
My view for next sessions.
1. I'll continue to assume this is consolidation and any close below 9843 will create doubts in my mind.
2. At the same time, I think, the lower end of the range is close or discovered. And NIFTY now should make attempt again towards 10200.
3. I'll wait to see action on Friday and Monday to see if NIFTY goes and takes out 9800-9843 levels.
Idea for next week.
1. I have created 10200/10000 Credit PUT spread. I was able to create this for 140 Rs Credit today. Idea would be to expect NIFTY chasing back to the upper end of the range.
Trade Log NIFTY June 9In my trade log for Yesterday, I had said
1. NIFTY has started consolidation. I am going to assume consolidation at least tomorrow morning session till noon.
2. In this consolidation, there are two possibilities - 1. Simple dip 2. Formation of range couple of days. To understand and confirm one of these we need conclusive break of last breakout level 10160-10180, preferably on hourly chart. If this happens NIFTY can also head to last swing low of 9950 in the process.
3. I am inclined to believe, there will be range formation.
4. NIFTY traders are uncertain about 10300 Level. There will be couple of attempts around that level.
5. Broader market performing well, can be taken as positive or negative. If bad quality stocks performing today, then it could be some retail inflows, which may signify not much upside left in the current swing. But these kind of indicators are at the best very weak indicators.
From these points, I feel confident
1. NIFTY is in consolidation. It is likely to see some downside tomorrow as well.
2. This is not a simple dip, This is likely to form range.
3. 10300 is firm resistance, any upside is possible only above that.
4. NIFTY is now searching for lower end of the range - first candidate for that is last swing low 9950.
My trades today:
1. Morning session, I reluctantly took long, but covered it quickly on first sign of weakness.
2. Then I sold 10100 call, which turned out to clean trending trade. I closed the same around end of the day.
Observations for the day
1. The cut on NIFTY little more deeper for consolidation. NIFTY closed 1.19% down.
2. BANK NIFTY closed -2.18% down.
3. INDIA VIX closed 1.8% up.
4. Advance Decline on negative side. 13 advances to 27 Declines. Broader market little better with 757 to 1135.
5. RELIANCE market leader for the current swing showed loss of momentum.
6. Option Data showing resistance shifting at lower levels 10100.
My readings for tomorrow
1. Not much changed in my view. I need to wait and see how NIFTY reacts to 9950 level. Overall I still treat this as consolidation.
2. One thing for sure, that the breakout of 10170 is now negated and 10333 is strong resistance zone.
3. Idea would be to keep shorts till NIFTY closes above 9280.
4. As long as 9800 level is protected, I'll continue to believe this is just a consolidation.
Trade Log NIFTY June 8Today is the start of new week.
My trades today:
1. When NIFTY chopped around low of the opening range, I sensed that this likely to be consolidation day. I shorted 10300 CALL and exited for profit on first sign of bounce.
2. I sold credit put spreads on both sides as per my weekly plan.
My weekly plan is here
My observations for the day.
1. Lot of expectations because of US markets, but NIFTY could not follow through after gap up. It formed a weak candle with 0.25% gain.
2. BANK NIFTY also running into resistance area and closed 0.73%.
3. VIX gained 3.37%
4. Advance Decline ratio 1264 to 574. Broader market performed really well. For NIFTY it is 25 to 25. Neutral.
5. Open Interest addition confirms the consolidation. Highest Open Interest addition on 10800 CALL side.
My reading for the market
1. NIFTY has started consolidation. I am going to assume consolidation at least tomorrow morning session till noon.
2. In this consolidation, there are two possibilities - 1. Simple dip 2. Formation of range couple of days. To understand and confirm one of these we need conclusive break of last breakout level 10160-10180, preferably on hourly chart. If this happens NIFTY can also head to last swing low of 9950 in the process.
3. I am inclined to believe, there will be range formation.
4. NIFTY traders are uncertain about 10300 Level. There will be couple of attempts around that level.
5. Broader market performing well, can be taken as positive or negative. If bad quality stocks performing today, then it could be some retail inflows, which may signify not much upside left in the current swing. But these kind of indicators are at the best very weak indicators.
Trade Log NIFTY June 3In my trade log for June 2,
I had said
1. Tomorrow will be the 6th day of higher highs. NIFTY closed near high of the day and just below strong psychological level 10000.
2. If there are positive global clues, NIFTY can create massive gap and short covering. There is not much overhead resistance till 10383 - 10400.
3. The other thing that I sense is mostly it can do similar thing some consolidation below 10000 and eventually breaking it.
4. Considering BANKNIFTY chart, I am more towards quick break and then continuation of rally on Thursday.
No points in invalidated and I still hold my view. NIFTY is racing towards 10380-10400 Levels. But today, It did not go that far.
My trades today
1. I sold 10100 CALL and squared it for loss. This was going to be difficult trade, but considering overbought context i took it.
2. But the 10200 CALL worked and actually helped to close my day flat.
My observations for today
1. NIFTY closed 0.83% higher and formed small indecision candle with gap up.
2. BANKNIFTY closed 2% higher, but candle was showing the tiredness of this rally.
3. VIX fell -0.24%. So mostly VIX is also needs some breather from action.
4. NSE Advance Decline ratio is 34 to 16.
My view for tomorrow
1. Tomorrow is weekly expiry. Overall there are some tiredness signs visible for the rally, but I still wont short it tomorrow.
2. Tomorrow will be 7th day. I think there is one more push remaining for NIFTY in current swing before consolidation.
3. I'll mostly wait on sideline, and not take much bets in first half of the day.