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Trade Log NIFTY May 20My trades Today 1. I sold 8900 PUT today as market opened with positive bias. When It faced rejection at 9000, I squared off the position. I was profited because IV dropped. 2. Then there was a consolidation in tight range. Since there was no follow through on short side after rejection, I was confident of selling credit spread. I'll let it expire/ close tomorrow. 3. Then on breakout of the range, I bought CALL and squared it off near EOD. In my Trade log post for May 19, I had said 1. Global news not helping, NIFTY is showing strength, but BANK NIFTY bearish . On BANK NIFTY chart, 17150 - 16700 is a support zone . This will be second touch of the zone, hence it can build support here. That means 8800 can be touched again, or even breached. 2. I don't expect NIFTY to go below 8600. 3. Also, I don't think 8800 is a bottom, on next touch, it may not hold, at least breached once. In this, point 2 is certainly confirmed. For point 3 I think there are chances that 8800 may be bottom for near term and pullback rally starts from here. Observations about price action today 1.NIFTY gained in the first few hours. It maintained the gains and consolidated in tight range. And then gained even more in second session. Closed 2.11% up. 2.BANK NIFTY supported 2.11% 3.VIX down 9%+ 4.Advance Decline ratio 42 to 8. 5. NIFTY formed higher low and higher high. BANK NIFTY did not form new low. For next 2 days, 1. I think, some kind of sustainable pullback may have started. It needs confirmation by holding up tomorrow. 2. Another confirmation signal is BANK NIFTY makes higher high. For confirmation of bottom, I would wait till Friday EOD. 3. Obviously, this pullback does not change long term picture right now. But now intra-day bias is clearly shifted to bullish side. 4. VIX dropping dramatically at 8800 support level, means NIFTY may make 8800 as base for this pullback rally.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
1
Trade Log NIFTY May 19My trades today: 1. Due to positive global cues, I expected positive day today. Hence I sold 8700 PUT in first 15 minutes, with stop below yesterday's close. 2. When opening range was sustained and downward trend line break happened I sold 8900 PUT. 3. Around 11, NIFTY was already 2.43% up and started showing signs of momentum loss, that is candles with long tails. Hence existed both the positions at profit. 4. Then when opening range high of the day was broken decisively on second attempt, intra-day trend turned. Hence I sold 9200 CALL, which I later covered around bottom of the opening range. Review of price action today: I observe 1. Following global cues, NIFTY opened gap up, but could not sustain gap. 2. BANK NIFTY closed negative, while NIFTY closed positive. 3. INDIA VIX fell 3.5% 4. NIFTY Advance Decline was 36:14, which broader market Advance Decline was not good 781 to 980. 5. Inside candle formed after large bearish candle yesterday. My view for next tomorrow and Thursday 1. Global news not helping, NIFTY is showing strength, but BANK NIFTY bearish. On BANK NIFTY chart, 17150 - 16700 is a support zone. This will be second touch of the zone, hence it can build support here. That means 8800 can be touched again, or even breached. 2. I don't expect NIFTY to go below 8600. 3. Also, I don't think 8800 is a bottom, on next touch, it may not hold, at least breached once.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY May 18Trades today: Simple trending day. I sold 9100 Call and covered it in few hours as first support appeared. Review of the Price Action Today In my weekly view I had said 1. NIFTY is likely to stay below 9450. 9000 is important psychological level and in the support zone . I wont short NIFTY aggressively till it closes below 8800. 2. I do not expect NIFTY to end below 8500-8600 this month. 3. Intra-day movement can be confusing in this zone. Trading light and exiting quickly is required. Nothing of this is confirmed so far. But we closed below 9000 today and that was a psychological level. For today's price action, 1. Global markets were in positive. European markets are around 1.5% up. Still NIFTY down 3%. 2. BANK Nifty fell 6.69% 3. Market breadth extremely weak. 4. VIX rose 7%. Overall it was a classic downtrend day with all things lining up. 1. NIFTY is trending down on all time-frames. 2. Today's low is unlikely to be bottom, there will be new low. 3. 8800 Level is the support where NIFTY can attempt to bounce but it should not bought. 4. Below 8800, there is no significant support till 8500.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
2
Trade Log NIFTY May 15About my trades today I made two trades today. 1. NIFTY formed initial red candle taking it below 9130. I shorted 9300 CALL on retest and squared on first sign of weakness. 2. Since NIFTY was not breaking 9050 , last low, I took reversal trade and squared it off before EOD on first spurt. Overall, I followed the plan and price action and it was not a crazy day! Yesterday I had said , 1. NIFTY is again in the lower bound of the range, It is likely to go below 9130 and then down to earlier lows around 8800. 2. This fall may not be steep or with momentum. It can be another range bound movement in 9350 - 8800 area. Point 1 turned to be true today. The second point , I have to see. But the selling was definitely lacking momentum. I observe the following points about today's market action 1. NIFTY did not break the last low of 9050. 2. The close was just on the important support line of 9130. 3. VIX fell little -0.43% 4. Advance Decline is 23 to 27, neutral. 5. NIFTY reversed but could not close/touch above high of the day. Overall I think next week in news driven week, and if there is no news NIFTY is likely to continue towards 8800 in slow fashion. I shall do a detailed weekly update over the weekend!
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
2
Trade Log NIFTY May 14About Trades today: 1. I sold 9600 CALLS intended to expire. Since market opened gap down, I did not sell PUTS. 2. Opening range of 15 Mins was broken , but could not sustain, hence I enetred the trade sell 9300 CALL intended to covered on touch other end of the range. 3. On touch of range , 9200 PUT of next week expiry was entered , but it was lacking strength, and sold before 1.30 4. When the range broke down, I sold 9200 CALL of next week expiry and closed the position around EOD. In my notes yesterday I had said, 1. Somewhere market players are doing the maths and estimating that the impact of stimulus in the short term is minimal. Otherwise the range breakout would have been sustained. 2. The series of FM conferences will create some sector specific action, but overall stimulus bounce is behind us. 3. Since we are on the top bound of the range, the obvious bias is to again short till we breakout the range, that is close above 9450. It turned out to be true. NIFTY actually swung back near to the other end of the range. I have the following observations about today's price action 1. NIFTY gap down near support area 9200, but after initial bounce, it did not show any buying. 2. VIX fell 1.68% 3. Advance Decline ratio is very weak 40:10 4. BANK NIFTY under performed . It fell -2.88%. It also just filled the gap, did not fell further like NIFTY, so overall, it has better performance if we combine yesterdays move. 5. Tech sector weakened today based on US news flow. All this means 1. NIFTY is again in the lower bound of the range, It is likely to go below 9130 and then down to earlier lows around 8800. 2. This fall may not be steep or with momentum. It can be another range bound movement in 9350 - 8800 area.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
4
Trade Log NIFTY May 12About trades today. I sold 9300 CALL as there was a gap down opening below 9190. I squared off the position when NIFTY could not go below 9040. I sold 9000 PUT as there was a possibility of bounce. I squared off this position in profit. I hold 9500 CALL sold from Friday. That position is open. NIFTY Opened gap down below 9190 and continued till 9050. Then it reversed sharply to close near 9200. This may be the lower bound of the range - 9050. I have the following observations about today's price action 1. NIFTY opened gap down and closed the gap. Also today was 7th down day. 2. NIFTY bounced off sharply from 9050 level. If NIFTY manages to close above 9340 in next two days, NIFTY may again try to touch upper bound of the range. 3. VIX rose less than a percent. 5. Advance Decline ratio 32:18 , on positive side. 5. BANK Nifty performed similar to NIFTY. I read this action as 1. NIFTY has touched the 9050 region and reversed. It may now try to retrace and go towards 9440, upper bound. This may be successful or not. 2. From overall price action today, buying the dip in NIFTY or BANK NIFTY would be good strategy for coming days.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
2
Trade Log NIFTY May 11About trades today. I sold 9300 PUT as there was a gap up opening above 9350. This position is trapped. I squared off the position for loss. I also squared off my positions from Friday. I hold 9500 CALL. That position is open. NIFTY Opened gap up above 9350 and sustained there for some time, like 30 minutes. But then it was straight down day. So 9340-9440 is a hard to break resistance zone. I have the following observations about today's price action 1. NIFTY has opened gap up and closed the gap. This has happened 3rd time in last 5 days. 2. NIFTY showed follow through on the downside after breaking below 9350. 3. VIX fell little less than a percent. 5. Advance Decline ratio 30:20 , on positive side. 5. BANK Nifty fell down 2%, mostly due to ICICI Bank I read this action as 1. I assume now some momentum is gathered. If NIFTY breaks below 9130, this fall will touch 9000 region.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY May 8About trades today. I sold 9200 PUT as there was a gap up opening. This position is trapped. I bought 9000 PUT to reduce overnight risk. I also sold 9600 CALL as NIFTY crossed 9330 below. Booked Profit in that position. I sold 9500 CALL when NIFTY crossed below 9300. That position is open. In my May 6 Log I had said 1. I think NIFTY may open gap down or little negative and move towards 9000. 2. Until we close above 9300, it is better to stay on short side. 3. Gap up opening is possible only when there is some positive global news. In that case, need to wait for close above 9350. Review : NIFTY did not gap down, instead gap up. But it did not sustain over 9350. It did not close above 9300. I have the following observations about today's price action 1. With Morning gap up, range was broken, but it turned out to be false breakout of 9350. 2. NIFTY consolidated in the tight range of 9300 and 9330 for morning hours and finally broke down below 9300. 3. In sell off below 9300, there was no momentum. Many bars are overlapping and with tails. 4. VIX fell little 3.81% 5. Advance Decline ratio 28:22 , neutral. 5. BANK Nifty fell down more and closed in negative, -0.7% I read this action as 1. Trend is negative but momentum is lacking on downside. Considering uncertainty, this may continue going forward for some time. 2. Sometime soon, NIFTY will try to touch other boundary of the range , that is 9130, I'll do a detailed post for weekly review for the week over the weekend.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
1
Trade Log NIFTY May 7 In my yesterday's market review, I had said 1. Tomorrow is expiry day. I wont take tomorrows action, especially sharp move if any as indication of further trend. 2. Mostly indecisive day today, so we have to see in which direction the NIFTY moves further. I do not have any bias going in tomorrow. 3. But if I have to build some view, then I think it'll be uneventful expiry (9300 +- 50) tomorrow, if there is no news flow tonight. Point 3, around uneventful expiry turned to be correct. The expiry happened around 9200 with lot of chopping moves. I have the following observations about today's price action 1. Market was very choppy and formed indecisive candle, which is inside candle as well. 2. The action around 9200 -9230, It was a narrow range action - no trade possible. 3. Bank NIFTY also traded in very narrow range. 4. Breadth was bad. 11 Advances and 29 declines. 4. Option writers again going in with 9000 as lower limit and then 9300 upwards calls were written. All this means 1. Trend is negative. and market paused today. 2. Sometime soon, may be tomorrow, there will be expansion of the range. On downside till 9000. And for upside, first NIFTY needs to build above 9350. For tomorrow, 1. I think NIFTY may open gap down or little negative and move towards 9000. 2. Until we close above 9300, it is better to stay on short side. 3. Gap up opening is possible only when there is some positive global news. In that case, need to wait for close above 9350.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
Trade Log NIFTY May 5 In my yesterdays review, I made the following points 1. This fall now wont be as unidirectional and steep as the March fall. 2. There will be choppiness with negative bias. 3. 8300 is not short term bottom. 4. The first bounce if any tomorrow will likely to fail. Point 3 and 4 were confirmed by today's price action. I have the following observations about today's price action 1. VIX did not dropped significantly. This means this continuation did not surprise or created fear. 2. The sell off after 1.30 was steep. And there is no climax action today. 3. Bank NIFTY under performed severely. 4. Breadth was not too bad considering the points lost, but banks contributed to the losses. 4. Option writers consider 9400 -9500 unbreakable by May 7. All this means 1. Trend is confirmed as negative. 2. This drop in now entering the choppiness zone of last rise, 9000 - 9150, This is likely to offer first support if any. For tomorrow, 1. Today NIFTY did opened with positive global clues but could not sustain. I expect some gap down opening if there are even mildly negative news. 2. I do not have clear idea, but my hunch is tomorrow again will be a down day with mostly some support discovery around 9050-9150 region.
NSE:NIFTY
by Observe_Think_Act_Think
1
Trade Log NIFTY May 4NIFTY opened large gap down and trended down with no major pullback. 1. VIX shot up 28% 2. Bank NIFTY under performed. 3. Broke below last important support area of 9400. 4. Also broke the support line of rising wedge. 6. Breadth was highly negative 424 Advances : 1399 Declines. All this indicates the following 1. Trend is changed to negative, 2. This is definitely second leg of the fall that started in Feb-March. But looking at the conditions , news flow etc 1. This fall now wont be as unidirectional and steep as the March fall. 2. There will be choppiness with negative bias. 3. 8300 is not short term bottom. 4. The first bounce if any tomorrow will likely to fail. I made small intra-day trade today for profit. I have also created Credit Spread for this week between 9300 - 9100. Because I think NIFTY will have some consolidation over 9000.
NSE:NIFTYShort
by Observe_Think_Act_Think