Short term buy signal. BTC buy below 9200.This is short term buy call. put SL 8960 at 20days EMA Halving is testing my patience. lol.
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CALL
Trade Log NIFTY May 7
In my yesterday's market review, I had said
1. Tomorrow is expiry day. I wont take tomorrows action, especially sharp move if any as indication of further trend.
2. Mostly indecisive day today, so we have to see in which direction the NIFTY moves further. I do not have any bias going in tomorrow.
3. But if I have to build some view, then I think it'll be uneventful expiry (9300 +- 50) tomorrow, if there is no news flow tonight.
Point 3, around uneventful expiry turned to be correct. The expiry happened around 9200 with lot of chopping moves.
I have the following observations about today's price action
1. Market was very choppy and formed indecisive candle, which is inside candle as well.
2. The action around 9200 -9230, It was a narrow range action - no trade possible.
3. Bank NIFTY also traded in very narrow range.
4. Breadth was bad. 11 Advances and 29 declines.
4. Option writers again going in with 9000 as lower limit and then 9300 upwards calls were written.
All this means
1. Trend is negative. and market paused today.
2. Sometime soon, may be tomorrow, there will be expansion of the range. On downside till 9000. And for upside, first NIFTY needs to build above 9350.
For tomorrow,
1. I think NIFTY may open gap down or little negative and move towards 9000.
2. Until we close above 9300, it is better to stay on short side.
3. Gap up opening is possible only when there is some positive global news. In that case, need to wait for close above 9350.
Trade Log NIFTY May 5
In my yesterdays review, I made the following points
1. This fall now wont be as unidirectional and steep as the March fall.
2. There will be choppiness with negative bias.
3. 8300 is not short term bottom.
4. The first bounce if any tomorrow will likely to fail.
Point 3 and 4 were confirmed by today's price action.
I have the following observations about today's price action
1. VIX did not dropped significantly. This means this continuation did not surprise or created fear.
2. The sell off after 1.30 was steep. And there is no climax action today.
3. Bank NIFTY under performed severely. 4. Breadth was not too bad considering the points lost, but banks contributed to the losses.
4. Option writers consider 9400 -9500 unbreakable by May 7.
All this means
1. Trend is confirmed as negative.
2. This drop in now entering the choppiness zone of last rise, 9000 - 9150, This is likely to offer first support if any.
For tomorrow,
1. Today NIFTY did opened with positive global clues but could not sustain. I expect some gap down opening if there are even mildly negative news.
2. I do not have clear idea, but my hunch is tomorrow again will be a down day with mostly some support discovery around 9050-9150 region.
Trade Log NIFTY May 4NIFTY opened large gap down and trended down with no major pullback.
1. VIX shot up 28%
2. Bank NIFTY under performed.
3. Broke below last important support area of 9400.
4. Also broke the support line of rising wedge.
6. Breadth was highly negative 424 Advances : 1399 Declines.
All this indicates the following
1. Trend is changed to negative,
2. This is definitely second leg of the fall that started in Feb-March.
But looking at the conditions , news flow etc
1. This fall now wont be as unidirectional and steep as the March fall.
2. There will be choppiness with negative bias.
3. 8300 is not short term bottom.
4. The first bounce if any tomorrow will likely to fail.
I made small intra-day trade today for profit. I have also created Credit Spread for this week between 9300 - 9100. Because I think NIFTY will have some consolidation over 9000.
EURUSD ANALYSIS DAILY CHARTSo last week was a reversal, monthly close also, that's why every analysis posted last sunday was wrong, we see now a clear weekly engulfing candles, we wait the retracement causing by the daily resistance
Buying AMD calls in May.If price returns to March's high, then I'll be looking to begin purchasing call options as close as possible to the 50 strike with June 1 expirations.
Buying CSCO calls in May.If price returns to March's high, then I'll be looking to begin purchasing call options as close to 41.50 strike as possible. These calls will have an expiration of June 1.
Trade Log NIFTY April 30Expiry day today. Gap up is huge and there is very little chance for me to participate any trade. Still scalped small profit.
Few Observations for today:
1. Bank NIFTY initially surged but closed around Low of the day.
2. Advance and Decline ratio is not great.
3. This market surged in straight line from 9270 to 9860. This is 600 points rise in 2.5 days.
4. VIX has not fallen today.
Till we cross 10000 - 10500 zone, we are still in large down move.
Hence I'll be careful of going long till this view invalidates. Considering this background, May month may start volatile. Mostly on downside.
Trade Log NIFTY April 29NSE:NIFTY broke out of the range today.
1. I squared off trapped call positions for loss.
2. On breakout, sold 9500 PUTS which were squared off profit.
Some ideas from the price action today.
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Today may be much awaited start of the breakout. The strength of the breakout is pretty strong. But one thing to be noted is This breakout still need to be confirmed by spending couple of days more building on this strength and staying above 9400. The overall market breadth was not very strong. 38 Advances and 12 declines. Since large move is made today, tomorrow we may have consolidation.
Once again remember overall view on monthly time frame , This is just a first meaningful bounce which can fail anytime. So better to stay light on long positions.
EurAUD short with great risk reward ratioWe are on a bearish trend, big resistance lvl around, ema 14 and 50 crossed, 61.8 % fib on the resistance lvl
Trade Log NIFTY April 25NSE:NIFTY Opened gap down because of negative news.
1. It filled the gap.
2. Then it fell down to create low of the day.
3. NIFTY did not have great breadth. Bank NIFTY was down 3%
This type of action likely to continue. Hence I am holding short positions on NIFTY going to the next week.
Trade Log NIFTY April 22Today NIFTY's move retraced 200 points after initial flat opening.
After move down tomorrow, I was expecting range bound action. NIFTY kept on moving up.
1. Overall Advance Decline ratio is near 1 to 1.
2. NIFTY gains largely due to Reliance and Zee Entertainment.
Tomorrow is expiry day. It is interesting to see how NIFTY reacts to level of 9250.
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As we can see, that the pair is very close to its 1st Resistance. It went up after consolidating for a lot of time and is now close to its 1st Resistance
Let us know your views on this in the comment section. Thank you all.
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Trade Log NIFTY April 21NIFTY Opened gap down below 9040. Then slipped below 9000.
1. Today's fall was on bad global news.
2. I do not think that this is just one day fall. This is likely to continue tomorrow.
3. If it closes below 8821, then the possibility of lower low in place.
I am not holding any positions tonight.
I was holding sold Calls at 9400 and 9300. I covered those today.
My weekly view is still in place , key level to observe now is 8821.
And overall, 9400 Level, which was highlighted in Monthly Review still holding as intermediate top
