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Preparing for this weeks earnings! - GES (Guess?)Earnings: Wednesday after close Technicals: STRONG BUY Zacks Rank: Buy 1 yr: Seems to trade very horizontally 3 yr: Bottomed out at $9.56 in 2017. Considering it is $22.81 now, that's pretty good recovery. It jumped March 19th, 2018: Why? Looking at old news articles, it soard 28.3% after they announced their Q4 earnings. Revenue is expected to jump yty +22.6% it is tradinga bove the VWAP It is considered way oversold on the RSI (Might be a bug on TOS) Action: BUY CALL or BULL SPREAD
NYSE:GESLong
by PocketTendies
Cheap call options better than buying SPOT for break-outLooking for clues in BTC over the last few weeks has been extremely tough. Trends that we have noticed are falling volumes, tighter ranges, weakening implied volatility in the options market, and simmering realized volatility as well. What exchanges can we trust when it comes to volumes? How much of trading is just arbitrage across exchanges, and how much OTC business is going on where volumes are not reported into the market? All of these questions, if answered, can provide clues to help us gain market insight. The unfortunate fact is that one will never have ALL of the answers, but the more of these questions you can answer, the more informed you will be compared to your competition in the market place. On Feb 19th, the CME Bitcoin Futures contract saw a record day volume wise trading over 18k contracts. Since then, average has fallen back into the low thousands. www.cmegroup.com Since the recent highs on Feb 24th and quick reversal back into the range, the volumes have been quite awful. BTC’s feel at the very moment is that it wants to probe the recent highs and see how strong the resistance is sitting at the $4,200 level. Unless large buying volumes come into the market, probing is all we shall see at that resistance level. We believe it will take a serious force of buying to take those levels out to the upside. If low volume persists, this technical pattern presents a potential false-break out trap; if traders see $4,200 being tested, they may not want to miss that major break out to 5k BTC and beyond causing them to buy into this false strength. If this market traps them and retraces back to that magnet level of $3,600, they will be forced to puke out and realize some pretty quick losses. If a trader knows that the emotion of missing a 20% rally will eat away at him, but has been punked out on these false-break outs in the past, a much safer (and cheaper) way to put on bullish exposure without getting whipsawed would be to buy short-dated calls. In our morning piece two Fridays ago (medium.com), we wrote, “Given the “gappy” way BTC trades and the suppressed implied volatility, breakout trades are very cheap to initiate. While these trades may be cheap for a reason, it does not cost you much to buy the March $3,250 put (roughly $15–20 vs. $3890) or $4250 call (roughly $50–55). As a ‘live’ option trade (unhedged), this can be a good way to capture profits in case the range breaks.” Today, the March (3/29/19) $4,250 calls can be purchased for roughly $30. This would give you 9 days (which isn’t much) of comfort in if we break through the $4,200 resistance, you can participate on the move to the upside. If you feel as though 9 days may be too short dated, the April (4/26/19) $4,250 calls can be purchased around $135. The April options can give you a month and week or so of time to sit on this market but know you can realize gains on a sharp move to the upside. As we monitor the options market daily here at BitOoda, we think there are several opportunities in the market for those who think this extremely tight range is due to break-out. If you are of that mindset, please let us know your thoughts and we can help design the right trade or structure to fit your thesis.
COINBASE:BTCUSDLong
by BitOoda_LLC
Forward Curve - CALL WRITING STATEGYAs we’ve been having conversations with all kinds of players within the cryptosphere, we’ve noticed Index Fund managers as well Miners who are long-only are looking for additional sources of income. This piece will be to educate them in a potential CALL WRITING strategy that can satisfy their need for additional income. When entering a CALL WRITING program, one would typically sell the 20 to 30 delta out-of-the money calls somewhere between 3-6 months out. If the program outcome is successful, a fund will increase its yield by collecting the option premium. Let us walk through the potential trade and its outcomes: Assume you have a cost basis of $4,500 for your BTC. We would look at the BTC June (6/25/19) $6,000 Calls that are worth roughly $200. 1. If the underlying stays flat o Do nothing, sit back, and enjoy collecting the premium o At expiration (6/25/19), your cost basis would become $4,300 (original basis – premium = new basis) o Next Trade: analyze volatility curve and target appropriate calls to sell 2. If the underlying sells off to $2,500 (hypothetical) o You can ‘roll’ your short calls to a lower strike to increase the premium income making up for losses in the underlying asset. o Sell the $4,500 Call and buy back the $6,000 Call for a net spread of $100 ($100 is an assumption and would have other factors to dictate that price: time, vol, BTC price etc.) o At expiration (6/25/19), your cost basis would become $4,200 (original basis – total premium = new basis) 3. If the underlying rallies towards $6,000 (hypothetical) o You should roll the short calls ‘up-and-out’ (to a higher strike and a further month in the calendar year) o Hypothetically, we would try to buy back the June $6000 calls and sell December calls (maybe $9,000 strike) for the same premium. o The cost basis would remain the same @ $4,300, however you would not get called out of your BTC length if June settled above $6,000 When the premium on the short calls are miniscule, you can decide to buy them back, or let them expire. After this decision is made, you can start this process over and sell more calls to continue lowering the cost basis of your BTC. The risk to this strategy is that you are short calls that, if end up in-the-money, can be exercised – meaning you would have to deliver your BTC to the call purchaser. To prevent this from happening one should be rolling the calls ‘up-and-out’. If the opportunity to do this is missed (let’s say BTC gapped from $4,000 to $8,000 overnight), you would end up cutting your profits short. If this income generating program is something you would consider establishing, please reach out to us and let us know so we can hop on a call to discuss further. Contacts Tim Kelly Founder and CEO tkelly@bitooda.io Brian Donovan Executive VP of Institutional Sales bdonovan@bitooda.io Dr. Ilya Kurland Chief Derivatives Strategist ilya@bitooda.io
CME:BTC1!
by BitOoda_LLC
NE In charting we must trust11/19 - OPTION PLAY *Queued, 2 contracts* NE 11/23 4.50 CALL dip buy 0.09 (0.10) IV 63.29% Volume 509 Open Interest 529 sell at 0.21 share price 4.65 I'm hoping for a play here. If i crash and burn, at least i made the jump. Why do i have faith in NE right now? #1 MACD about to cross north #2 RSI is basically at an oversold point #3 $4.50 is very close to current closing price #4 The $4.37 support line has been tested many times over the last 10ish days and is prepared to make a move. I just hope it moves north. *Let's see what happens!*
NYSE:NELong
by mrmaximo74
2
$SPY $SPX $ES1! Another ATH this year - earnings season strong!I reviewed my previous SPY analysis and made a few crucial mistakes. Do not follow my previous spx, spy ideas. I spent more time studying the charts, the VIX and the products inside S&P 500. I'm expecting another all time high this year before a larger correction. Here is the chart and targets I'm quite confident with and will be playing. Follow along for updates. I'm expecting the correction to start end of Nov or early Dec. I'm betting on 26-29 November. Good luck! PS. If you see my other SPY, SPX, ES Analysis on Trading View. Ignore it. I've closed older ideas.
AMEX:SPY
by starman01
1