Using Daily moving-averages on $SPX (and children)Hello all,
Not a financial advisor, i just trade full-time. I can share some stuff that I look at.
TL;DR
Look at crosses, touches and space
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Please also pull up my other idea on $SPX timeframe'd weekly, linked (scroll down to bottom for links | also, to open the link in a NEW TAB, hold the control ( CTRL ) key down and then click the link).
- The traffic light time-axis markers are borrowed from the weekly time-frame.
If you need to manage your position with $SPX or your children, then this is for you.
References:
MA = moving average.
DMA = daily moving average
The calculations in this study are from TradingView, I am unsure how they are calculated. Who cares! We just like to draw on charts, right?
Orientation:
We are on a $SPX weekly BASELINE chart (values are from the week of 03/16/2020 for baseline)
We have the S&P 500 (or 505, if you know) drawn up 4 times
----Each one of these lines represent the percent of stocks ABOVE their relative moving average
-----There are 4 daily moving averages: 20, 50, 100, 200.
-------For example, the BLUE line represents the percentage of stocks inside of the $SPX that are trading above their 20 DMA (daily moving average).
snowy, elkenpolar-branded traffic light time-axis markers from $SPX weekly
Two highlighted boxes mapping the $SPX weekly corrections to 25 EMA.
EDIT: I didn't use it, but the RSI is based on the 20 DMA. I just noticed a couple neat things there, look for yourself.
Our baseline is the bottom of the market in March, 2020. This is a great time to start looking because this was a huge shift in...well, just about everything.
The boxes highlight some periods of volatility in the $SPX. The first box (yellow) is the first (double) correction to the $SPX 25 weekly MA. The red box highlights a very volatile correction to the 25 weekly MA.
Yellow Box
This is EXCITING! We can see some indecision and faltering to the 25 weekly here. Notice how the 20/50 percent line form a cross in the first red rectangle. They also bounce off the 100 DMA line. The second box is a SNAPPY correction and notice how this one falls off a cliff to the 200 DMA line.
Red Box
Here we highlight the correction in purple. You can see a cross in the couple of week before hand. A leading indicator to what was possible in the next couple of week. We then got a RSI divergence on the weekly $SPX price chart and a correction. Notice the difference between the two 'major' highlighted boxes though - i.e. we did NOT touch the 100 or 200 DMA percentage lines. What could this mean?
To Note
Notice when our 'short' or 'small' moving average (% of above 20 DMA) crosses over our 'long' or 'tall' MA (50 DMA) it may lead one to turn off the playstation and open up a chart, with crayons.
Also note other convergences, divergences and, you know, funny shapes.
Observations
Later on we can see some similar stuff lining up this month.
We had a bearish cross (blue crossing below red), a bullish cross (blue crossing ABOVE red) and now we are kinda in this place of "Ruh Roh". Do I have a crystal ball? No, but my system tells me to sell/heavy hedge right now, so that is what I am doing. This doesn't just apply to my positions in this asset class either.
Look at crosses, touches and space
What does it mean, Mason?
Well, that is going to have to be decided for you. I can tell you what I did, I bought naked long puts. For Monday. What will I do this week? Probably more crayons. We are in turbulence and the best way to ride a turbulent airplane is with nothing in your tray and it *securely* stowed into the seat in front of you. Unless you got one of those fancy flying-beds.
If you make this chart and use it, be sure to correlate this chart with a price action chart from $SPX.
Please leave me any questions or if you would like something explained further below.
And what do you think? Link me your charts.
Thanks
Black Elk Speaks, Crazy Horse:
"imagine using smoke signals in 1998" *chuckles*
CALM
CALM Technical Analysis 🧙Cal-Maine Foods Inc produces and sells shell eggs. Its main market is United States. The company's product portfolio contains nutritionally enhanced, cage-free, organic, and brown eggs. Cal-Maine Foods markets the shell eggs to a diverse group of customers, including grocery-store chains, club stores, and foodservice distributors. The company's brands are: Egg-Land's Best, Land O' Lakes, Farmhouse, and 4-Grain
If you understand the idea,🎯 press a thumb up! 👍 Have a question? Don't be shy to ask! 🤓 Interested to study how to analyze charts, follow me!
USDJPY: possible scenario for joining bullsThe market calmed down, so Japanese yen is weakening.. i am waiting for better price to join bulls between 109.15-108.95 zone with 109.8 T/P (R:R 3.25).
Keep in mind that this idea might be realized in several days and opening long position in USDJPY results positive swap.
//
Feel free to share your opinion/position via comment and follow me to stay updated.
GRINBTC, Is the market ready to move higher?Hi!
We have seen GRINBTC in a correctional stage for a few weeks, forming a 5-3-5 Zigzag correction, being now in the last wave of the correctional phase. Yesterday GRINBTC has bounced off the monthly resistance line just to give it away again quickly. This is an indication that the market wants to go lower and we might see a drop all the way down to form a double bottom on the monthly chart.
It is advisable to wait for a confirmation of the breakout from the trend-line by using different time-frames and to play the market before the instrument itself.
If you would like to learn more about technical analyses please visit George Beaulieu on Youtube and leave a like.
Lots of patience to you all and thanks for reading.
-heish
CALM DOWN, BULL RUN CAN NOT COME THIS EASILYRecently, you may think the crypto market is recovering, especially lots of altcoins like WAN, ELF... got really beautiful pump. But don't let the happiness blind your eyes and create you sadness in the future.
Looking at the Crypto King, market number one trend leader, BTCUSD, I still not believe the healthy reverse is coming.
Looking at both 1D, it just break a very important long term support, and consolidating for nearly a week, the buy side volume still weak, FUD can be more easily generated than FOMO. It is very likely fell down to another Fib support level, $5500
Looking at the 4h chart, even though it looks like an ascending triangle, but based on the weak volume on buy side, I more prefer look it as a bear flag. Aggressive trader can go for swing trade, between $6500~ $7600.
So in one sentence, calm down, don't be too happy, I am as eager to the bull run as you, but we shall see the risk, don't let your wounded wallet die, the bull run will definitely come, but not now.
Has BTC just booked a return Flight?BTCUSD D BITFINEX
Calm my good followers. Profit taking is a good thing in a market, and perhaps a sign of some maturity coming to the still comparatively new BTC Market.
So yesterday after our very BULLISH 4 H close above the channel, we had a Daily close below. As my old trading mentor used to say, In trading the longer the Stronger, so Daily failure trumps 4H success. Unfortunately, I was flying during all this yesterday and couldn’t update.
The Daily failure was more a failure of expectation, than reality. A test and consolidation round these levels has always been likely, and the 4 H success a bit of a surprise to come so soon. Once we had that failure something NEW happened to BTC IMHO. We had a bearish signal at the top of an extended move and some traders who had made some money on this aggressive trip up decided to bank some profits. Failing to do so hurt many of them in the last couple of months and a lesson may well have been learnt here. If it has then this market will become more technical, and even EASIER for the skilled trader to profit from.
For many of our follower’s targets had been hit, Stop losses moved up as per our updates and the pullback saw positions closed banking profits not losses. This was no disaster, this was an orderly banking of money earnt on the way up. That is how trading works.
So how do we know if this is a pullback or of we are going back down to set a new low (something badly missing from our chart). Well we watch the chart, its not hard and all through our early analysis. We have talked about the range between 12 k and either 10 k, or the 200EMA. So now we watch our charts and we watch our levels.
Price is currently testing the lows of 2/3 days ago. We will watch this level for a bounce, but really the key level is 10K (9976). If we get a close below that on a 4h Chart or especially a D chart we need to be very cautious. But if we get a bounce there a new test of the Channel and then 12k (11700) is likely. I am going to spend a lot of extra time in front of my charts in the next few days. Not just to make money but because I now have followers and I want to keep you up to date. If we get a break below our level, I will update here and keep you informed. Relax a bit you are in the safe hands of Dollars and Senses.
BTC remains a very emotional chart with big moves as the opinions of the general public bounce around like Donald Trumps Hair piece. Its fuelled by a combination of extreme Greed and Fear, and a lot of over hyped analysis in both directions. It’s the toughest part of trading but our job is to put our open trade positions to one side, step outside the hype and read our charts. Those that can do that make great wealth, and those that cannot blame everything else in the world.
If your newish to this, the next few days could well be a big learning time. Look after your risk, watch and let the charts lead and educate us.
That education, if learnt properly will be worth more Dollars and Senses than you can ever know.
"The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator." - Ben Graham
You are an investor, not someone who can predict the future. Base your decisions on real facts and analysis rather than risky, speculative forecasts.
BTCUSD nothing exeptionalhello
In the comment of the previous idea i wrote, that i`d like to see the third wave of divergence. Here it is. But i dont think that`s this is my awesome analysis, this was just possible and quite logical, considering the resistance to fall and some consolidation after two strong div waves. In addition to the outcome of this situation we can see the following: 1. Break through and 6700 ( 1.414 fibo from previous idea) 2. Bounce from resistance, divergence and correction to the channel support line at least.
Good mood everyone
October 2 Earnings: Cal-Maine Foods: Competition GaloreThe company's efforts to restructure have not come across well so far, trailing its competitors.
Cal-Maine has a long way to go, I believe, to fairly compete with larger players.
I am pessimistic on the company's 3 month prospect and have a $35.00 PT.
Stop set at $45.00 but is flexible up to $50.00.
I believe the company will report lower guidance on Monday.
Monero finds basinIt appears the next attempt at a peak has passed not only the aggressive trend line but also the tamer trend line set earlier. This means the emotions of euphoria are gone and now the market will return to reality to discover the real sustained levels for Monero. The talk of Monero hitting a billion dollar market cap will cease for at least a month and the volume will stay in the top 5 until the basin is reached. I believe Monero will surpass these levels as privacy is extremely valuable to the crypto community and has intrinsic value. It is likely Monero will have a high basin rather than a medium or low basin. (It will hold above 100 million market cap).
CALM: Long at market openWe can go long CALM above the Key Earnings level from the last earnings release.
Keep stops under 51, and aim for a 5 daily ATR move.
I like how it has closed the day above said level, I see considerable upside in this stock, and it has an excellent yield and solid fundamentals.
Good luck if taking this trade.
If interested in my professional trading signals, or in personal tuition, contact me privately. I'm offering a considerable discount on a packaged course which includes access to my private trading signals list for a year.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.