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Camarilla Pivot Points

Navigating September 2024: British Pound Trading ForecastAs we approach the close of Q3 2024, key pivot levels on the Camarilla indicator suggest pivotal moments ahead for the British Pound. The currency's performance at these levels could dictate the trading strategy for the upcoming period. Camarilla Insights and Strategic Levels: The British Pound reached a significant juncture at the $1.3220 level, identified as the R5 resistance and a prime profit-taking zone during Q1 2024. This level is now expected to serve as a focal point for institutional traders' actions, oscillating between profit-taking distributions and potential accumulations for new long positions. September 2024 Trading Strategy: Anticipated Long Positions: Observations suggest a potential buildup of long positions at the S3 level of September 2024, which also aligns with August 2024's R3 and Q3's R4. This setup indicates that if the price approaches this level, it could trigger buying activities. However, establishing long positions would be prudent only upon confirmation that the S3 level holds firmly. Should the price fail to sustain this level, a cautious approach would be to wait for it to reach the lower S4 level before considering any long trade entries. Short Trading Opportunities: Conversely, if the price escalates to the R3 level, corresponding to the R5 profit-taking level of Q3 2024, it may suggest that the market is entering a distribution phase. In this scenario, traders might look for opportunities to initiate short positions, targeting subsequent support levels at S3 or S4 depending on the price movement’s momentum. Long-Term Outlook and Price Targets: The pattern of higher lows since September 2022 primes the GBP for a potentially bullish trajectory. A break above the previous highs of July 2023 at $1.3150 could set the stage for an aggressive bullish run, aiming for a resistance target at $1.3650. Conclusion: The current positioning and historical pivot levels provide a complex but navigable trading landscape for the British Pound as we move into the latter part of 2024. Traders should closely monitor these critical levels for indications of market sentiment shifts, ensuring strategies are aligned with the prevailing market phase, whether accumulation or distribution. Stay tuned for updates as these pivotal moments unfold, offering opportunities for astute traders to capitalize on the inherent volatility of currency markets.
CME_MINI:M6B1!Long
by msrozba
Advances Camarilla Concepts (2)Advanced Camarilla Concepts: Mastering Two-Period Relationships In the sophisticated realm of Camarilla pivot trading, understanding two-period relationships is crucial for discerning the market's directional bias and anticipating movements in upcoming sessions. This analytical approach focuses on the third layer (S3 and R3) of the Camarilla pivots, similar to Pivot Width Analysis, but delves deeper into nuanced market signals across seven distinct types of relationships. Exploring the Seven Two-Period Relationships Higher Value (Bullish Signal): This occurs when the current period’s S3 is above the previous period’s R3, suggesting a robust bullish outlook. This scenario is a strong buy signal on pullbacks to the current period's S3. Key to this analysis is: Acceptance: Price opens above S3 and pulls back to it, affirming bullish continuation. Rejection: Price opens below S3, turning it into resistance, with potential declines anticipated. Lower Value (Bearish Signal): Defined by the current period's R3 being below the previous period's S3, indicating bearish conditions. This setup suggests selling on rallies to R3. Observations include: Acceptance: Price opens below R3 and ascends to it, confirming the bearish trend. Rejection: Price opens above R3, using it as support, which may signal rising prices. Overlapping Higher Value: A modestly bullish sign indicating a possible slowdown in the uptrend, suggesting that the market might enter a distribution phase leading to range-bound conditions. Both acceptance and rejection criteria apply, similar to the 'Higher Value' scenario. Overlapping Lower Value: A slightly bearish signal hinting at a weakening downtrend, potentially leading to accumulation and subsequent range-bound activity. Like its bullish counterpart, acceptance and rejection are key to understanding this signal. Unchanged Value: Represents neutrality, where the current period's S3 and R3 align exactly with the previous period's levels. Markets may be in a phase of accumulation or distribution, and traders should watch for breakout signals closely. Outside Value: Another neutral indicator where the current period’s S3 and R3 completely encompass the previous period’s levels, suggesting a quiet, range-bound market environment. Inside Value: Indicates that a breakout is imminent, as the current period’s S3 and R3 are entirely contained within the previous period’s levels. This scenario offers opportunities for low-risk and high-reward trades. Strategic Implications and Trading Strategy Utilizing these two-period Camarilla relationships equips traders with a refined lens for market analysis, enabling them to tailor their strategies to the evolving market context. Whether it's leveraging bullish signals for robust buying opportunities or identifying bearish setups for timely exits, understanding these nuanced relationships enhances strategic execution. By integrating these advanced Camarilla concepts into your trading toolbox, you can significantly enhance your ability to navigate through volatile markets with precision and confidence. Stay tuned for further insights as we continue to explore the depths of Camarilla pivot trading and its application in real-world scenarios. This exploration not only broadens your understanding but also sharpens your trading skills in anticipating and reacting to market dynamics.
CBOT:ZNZ2024Education
by msrozba
Advanced Camarilla Concepts (1)Exploring Advanced Camarilla Concepts: The Strategic Role of Pivot Width In the realm of technical analysis, understanding the nuances of pivot points, particularly within the Camarilla framework, can significantly enhance a trader's ability to forecast and capitalize on market movements. A key aspect often overlooked is the analysis of pivot width, especially the width between the third layers, S3 and R3, which offers crucial insights into impending market dynamics. Pivot Width Analysis: Decoding Market Behavior Pivot width, the distance between significant Camarilla support (S3) and resistance (R3) levels, is a powerful indicator of potential market behavior. The interpretation of pivot width can be categorized into two distinct scenarios: Abnormally Wide Pivot Widths: When the distance between S3 and R3 is unusually large, it often indicates that the market might enter a period of trading range activity. In such scenarios, the market is less likely to exhibit strong directional momentum, and instead, traders might experience extended periods of consolidation. This setup requires strategies that capitalize on range-bound trading techniques, where buying at support and selling at resistance can be particularly effective. Abnormally Narrow Pivot Widths: Conversely, a tighter than usual gap between these pivot points typically signals the potential for breakout and trending activities. Narrow pivot widths suggest that the market is coiling, much like a spring, ready to release significant energy that could lead to strong directional moves. Traders should prepare for breakout strategies during these conditions, anticipating substantial moves away from the pivot line once a breakout occurs. Strategic Application in Trading Understanding and applying pivot width analysis within the Camarilla framework allows traders to adapt their strategies based on anticipated market conditions. By aligning trading approaches with pivot width signals, traders can enhance their tactical execution and improve the probability of success in varying market environments. For Wide Pivots: Implement range-bound strategies, focusing on capturing the oscillations between the defined support and resistance levels. For Narrow Pivots: Prepare for potential breakouts by setting entry points near the anticipated breakout levels, with appropriate stop-loss orders to manage risk effectively. Conclusion: Enhancing Trading Acumen with Pivot Width Analysis The study of pivot width in the context of Camarilla pivots offers a sophisticated tool for traders aiming to refine their market analysis and execution strategies. By paying close attention to these details, traders can better prepare for the market's next moves, whether they point to a continuation of the range or the start of a new trend. Stay tuned for further insights into the application of Camarilla pivots in trading, as we continue to explore deeper layers of this powerful analytical tool. This exploration not only enriches your trading toolkit but also enhances your ability to navigate through complex market landscapes.
CBOT:ZNZ2024Education
by msrozba
Camarilla Pivots: A Guide to Mastering Reversals and BreakoutsIntroduction to Camarilla Pivot Points Before delving into the personal challenges I've encountered with Camarilla Pivots, and the often stark contrast between theoretical strategies and real-world trading outcomes, it's crucial to lay a foundational understanding of the Camarilla Pivot Points. This will set the stage for discussing the adjustments and solutions I implemented to navigate these challenges effectively. Understanding the Core Layers of Camarilla Pivots: S3 and R3 Camarilla Pivots are structured around multiple layers of support (S) and resistance (R), with the third layer (S3 and R3) playing a pivotal role. Unlike the first two layers, which often see less action, S3 and R3 are key zones where momentum frequently stalls. These levels are battlegrounds for "Responsive Traders" who aim to reverse the price direction based on perceived fair values. Trading at R3: Recognized as a prime selling opportunity, traders should aim for S3 as a profit target with a stop loss set just above at R4. Trading at S3: This level is seen as a buying zone, with objectives set towards R3 and a stop loss placed below at S4. Advanced Layers: S4 and R4 (Reversal/Breakout Points) Reversal Scenario: S4 and R4 act as the last line of defense for pivot support or resistance. If the price fails to reverse at S3 or R3, it may continue to these outer layers, which then serve as optimal entry points for reversals due to their potentially lower risk and high strategic value. Breakout Scenario: In instances where the price fails to reverse at R4 and instead pushes above, R4 transforms from a resistance to a support level. This shift marks a critical entry point for traders anticipating further upward momentum, positioning R4 as a new buying zone. The Role of S5 and R5 (Profit-Taking Layers) Although not traditionally part of the Camarilla framework, S5 and R5 are frequently used by traders to exit positions, particularly after successful breakouts from S4 or R4. These levels act as final targets for taking profits, capturing gains from momentum-driven market moves. Practical Trading Tips: It's often wise to avoid trading within the narrow bands between S3 and S4 or R3 and R4, as these zones typically represent accumulation or distribution phases. Decisions in these areas are fraught with uncertainty, as the market has yet to indicate a clear dominance by either buyers or sellers. Conclusion and Upcoming Insights As we progress, I will explore deeper into the nuances of applying Camarilla Pivots in trading, focusing on how to adapt and thrive amidst the unpredictability of the markets. Stay tuned for more insights that will help refine your trading strategies and enhance market performance using Camarilla Pivots.
NYMEX:NGV2024Education
by msrozba
1
Mastering Market Dynamics with Camarilla Pivot PointsIntroduction to Camarilla Pivot Points: A Game-Changing Indicator Camarilla Pivot Points stand out as one of the most effective leading indicators in the realm of technical analysis. Franklin O. Ochoa's "Secrets of a Pivot Boss" offers a profound exploration of this method, widely used for identifying pivotal support and resistance levels in the financial markets. The book is acclaimed for its clear exposition of complex concepts and actionable strategies that cater to both novice and experienced traders, aiming to refine their market strategies across various conditions. Deep Dive into Camarilla Pivot Points Ochoa positions Camarilla Pivot Points as indispensable tools for intraday trading, delineating crucial levels that include S3, S4, R3, R4, and the extended targets of S5 and R5. These points are not merely theoretical constructs but are practical tools for navigating the ebb and flow of market dynamics. Support Levels (S3, S4): These levels are crucial when prices are falling, suggesting potential zones for buying. A rebound from S4, especially, is highlighted as a prime entry point, suggesting a robust setup with tightly managed risk controls. Resistance Levels (R3, R4): At these junctures, R3 serves as a preliminary profit target for rising positions, while a breach of R4 could indicate potential for further bullish momentum, making it an ideal spot for breakout strategies. Extended Levels (S5 and R5): Serving as further profit targets, these levels are significant during periods of extraordinary volatility, indicating strong market movements and potential zones for capturing gains before probable market retractions. Strategic Implementation and Challenges The integration of Camarilla Pivot Points with other market indicators and contextual analysis is emphasized to enhance the validity of trading signals. This holistic approach ensures that traders are not solely reliant on one method but are equipped to make informed decisions based on a comprehensive market view. However, the practical application of these strategies, as vividly recounted from personal experiences during the Covid-19 pandemic in 2020, reveals challenges. Despite meticulous adherence to Ochoa's outlined strategies, the expected outcomes were not always realized, with an 80% incidence of being stopped out of trades. This discrepancy highlights a crucial aspect of trading: the unpredictable nature of markets and the necessity for continuous adaptation and learning. Conclusion: Looking Forward The journey with Camarilla Pivot Points underscores a critical lesson in trading: the importance of flexibility and ongoing education in strategy application. As we prepare to delve deeper into what might have been missing in the initial application and how to adjust strategies accordingly, traders are reminded of the impermanence of market conditions and the need for perpetual skill enhancement. Stay tuned for the next installment, where we explore these adaptations and continue our journey towards mastering the art of trading with Camarilla pivot points.
NYMEX:NGV2024Education
by msrozba
A Renko Trading Strategy with Multiple Indicators (Update 3)An update from the last summary: Stating the obvious but the recurring pattern did not play out. This was a painful past couple of days but some realizations that I will walk through here for anyone who may be on a similar journey or realizations. “Buy high and sell low” or “buy support and sell resistance” are simple words to speak, to walk through in back testing, but, in the heat of the moment with live data and markets unfolding in ways you weren’t expecting make these phrases an near impossible accomplishment. As for the chart setup, I’ve with the following for the Renko WTI/CL chart: 25 tick block size and a 15-minute timeframe (more on this later) DEMA at 12 and 20 MA at 20 with a 9 period (or block in case of Renko) WMA Stoch of 5,3,3 and 25,3,3 DMI of 5,5 Bull Bear Power at 25 (this is new and seems to provide good insights) Wednesday and Thursday had me watching the Renko charts waiting for an opportunity to go short (remember, my trading style is to buy either Calls or Puts as near to the money as possible and at least 3 to 4 months out). From the patterns I saw on the Renko, I firmly believed that the market was ready to sell off and I wanted to be in. As an aside, I cap my losses at 10% of the price I pay for the option. In my losses this week, I realized that my strategies for every period of time that I’ve tried to trade had basically been a breakout trader. It wasn’t that I made a definitive statement of “Hey, my methodology is that of a breakout trader” but more like “Hey, I need to see confirmation of the price movement before I enter”. The problem is that the confirmation I was looking for was well after price had started moving and, as I looked at it, it was what could be classified as a breakout. And it was in my 3rd loss for the week, that I realized what I was doing wasn’t working. Sure, I could find points in time where it would have seemed to work but not this week. As closed out my 3rd loss, I read back through some items I had highlighted in the “Pivot Boss” book referenced earlier and in it found the pages were I had marked up the callout that you have to buy at support and sell into resistance if your going to succeed. It seem intuitive but in reality, it goes completely against my nature while trying to find an entry point with live data flying by. By now, if you’ve read this far, you may have picked out some items that resonate with you or you may be finding this as a serious source of entertainment :D For the discussion that continues, you’ll need to reference the previous article I wrote to see the specific charts before the price action on Thursday. The following link will give you view of how price played out. The red rectangle outline on the chart is where I was looking for price to repeat a similar pattern noted in the related article. How simple (and unrealistic) could this be. What played out was a price movement that I didn’t know how to handle and took me some time to figure out where to get in. As price continued to go up, I realized this was where I would usually just try to get in and then, I would get in at a intra-day high, have price pull back and 10-20% of my option value hit and I’d be out just to watch the market reverse. So, on this day, I resolved myself not to make a trade unless I could figure out this “buy support and sell resistance” thing. In my resolve, I agreed to some points: I will only buy at support and will sell into resistance: (the hardest concept known to man, not in understanding but execution) The key must be in the Camarilla Pivots so use them and the system that is outlined in the book. Or, as close as you can with how you want to trade. Renko chart setting will stay at 25 ticks for a block size and 15 minutes for a timeframe. What does this mean for Renko in TV? It means that price of a 25 tick increment must be held for 15 minutes before the block is committed or printed. Because volume profile and camarilla pivots are not a natural fit on the Renko charts, I’ll create a candle chart side-by-side to the Renko chart and then place all of these indicators on it. Additionally, all of the mark-ups I do for projecting the volume area on the chart and the opening range will be done on the candle chart The Renko chart will continue to have the indicators I track on it but they will be for confirmation and helping to form an opinion of the market and nothing to do with entry or exit. Remember, I want to buy support and sell resistance and not breakouts. I wanted to have multiple periods of levels on my candle chart so I included 3 sets of camarilla, a daily, weekly, and monthly set of levels. The next big decision I had to make was the timeframe for the candle chart itself. After much experimentation and debate with myself, I landed with the following: Start with an hourly chart. The first general notion of entry and if at support or resistance will come from the hourly chart. I will continue with my volume area and opening range markup but it will be for a weekly timeframe. Meaning that the volume profile indicator is set to weekly and I use the first 5 hours of the week to set the opening range. From these markups I’ll create an opinion of the coming week and a trading plan based on what I see. Then, I’ll let price movement between the camarilla pivots prove out my opinion or lead me to adjust it. Once I find a potential trigger, I will switch the 1hr candle chart to a 5 minute candle chart and look for candle setups to trigger the actual trade. What do I use for triggers and how to I decide where to look? The following chart is a bit of an eye chart but you get the idea. With the 3 camarilla pivots plus a year pivot, you can see the various levels. While it may seem like a confused mess, there is some method to the madness. The Camarilla pivots in TV allow you to color code the levels plus set the size or pixel width of the lines of the levels. For all periods, I set the pivot to black, R1/S1 and R2/S2 to purple and then based on the book’s recommendation, R3/S4 to red, R4/S3 to green, and R5/S5 to blue. For the daily, week, monthly, and yearly pivots, I set their pixel width to 1px, 2px, 3px, and 4px respectively. This is how I get a visual clue on what timeframe price is approaching (by the width) and the type of triggers or market behavior I should be looking for based on the color. I will use the weekly, monthly, and hourly pivots to look for price levels of support or resistance. It will be at these levels that I’ll look for price action to provide insight as to what the market wants to do with the level (there is a good discussion in the “Pivot Boss” book on identifying candle patterns that distills a lot of complexities of endless chapters of concepts into a few simple ones in one chapter). Once I see some type of candle pattern on the 1 hour chart that could indicate a trigger to enter, I change it to a 5 minute chart to find a pattern in the price movement of the next candle to make the entry. In theory, this should provide me with an entry at support; don’t wait for a confirmation via a breakout. So, why mess with the Renko charts then? Fair enough of a question; I believe that the Renko chart setup will filter noise out of the view and provide a cleaner view of support and resistance lines due to the nature of its makeup. If you follow along with any of this in your own charts, you will begin to see that the pivots begin to form identifiable lines of support and resistance in the Renko chart. And, back to the point that the Renko setup I have with the specific indicators and their settings seem to provide a good path toward confirmation of trends and positions. Another key issue I was struggling with was how to correlate the Renko chart with the candle chart. This is where I came up with the 5-minute chart which, after thinking about it, I realized that the 5-minute chart would reconcile nicely with the 15-minute Renko chart. If you look at how Renko charts are printed, they will print on the time frame that you set so, if a brick prints, it should do so on a :15-minute boundary. And, the 5-minute candle will correlate to it. The next chart shows the Renko with the 1hr candle side-by-side with the same rectangle. The rectangle on the 1hr is a reasonable estimate but squarely in the middle is an interesting candle formation that happens to be near the daily S5 and the weekly R1. I looked at this for awhile in real-time and thought, how do you really decide to make this trade? It seems like price has moved further from the trigger before you have the nerve to pull the trigger on the trade. Plus, if you look at the DEMA on the Renko at this time, it’s still set bearish with 20 above the 12 and the -DI was still swapped above the +DI. All things I’ve used in the past and now causing paralysis in pulling the trigger in a “buy at support” trade. The next is the same chart setup but I’ve switched to the 5 minute view and have adjusted the red rectangle in the candle chart a little. The candle chart shows the boundary of the lowest red brick, the one red brick to the left and the two green bricks to the right. In this price action, candle on the one hour chart (engulfing is corroborated by the extended wick of the green brick that is the first reversed color in the down move. However, with the DEMA swapped bearish, what would lead you to look to buy on this. There are valid cases where price continues down from the one green brick. This is where the importance of the camarilla pivots along with the 5 minute chart come in. With the engulfing candle on the 1-hour chart and the green brick on the Renko, what I should have done is use the 5-minute chart with the various pivots to find support and candle patterns to enter the market long. This would have been fulfilling the mantra of “Buy Support; Sell Resistance”. The following chart zooms in to both the Renko and the 5-minute candle in hopes to show details of how to get from potential triggers to confirmations and physical entries with tighter reins on the stops to guard more on the ‘Hope this will work’ strategy. By using the 15-minute Renko and the 5-minute chart, I can now see exactly what’s going on in the Renko bricks to get a better feel of what the market is doing. The blue double arrow on the Renko correlates with the 5-minute candle. With the first green brick being a trigger, then the key is to look at what is going on once that brick prints to see how price behaves around the Camarilla pivots. The green dashed line is the time that the first green brick printed (committed, good to go). So, what is important is to now watch the price to find a setup to enter. Or we see the market push through the support of the camarilla pivots that are in close proximity and begin the search for an entry short. The chart below is zoomed in even more on the candle chart with the daily Camarilla S4 which, from a daily context, is the last level of support before more sellers hop in and drive price lower. I’ve outlined this pivot in a green rectangle and here you can see price action and find some interesting setups. I’ve put some black arrows at some of the more interesting candles and those which are probably some type of reversal patters of 2 or 3 in nature. I’ll end this here but have more in my notes that I’ll include in a future update.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by mxb1961
A Renko Trading Strategy with Multiple Indicators (update 1)This will serve as an update to the previous discussion specifically to some of the chart settings and the approach. Going into the open on 25-March-2024, I was looking for price to move lower to test the monthly and yearly Camarilla R3. My reasoning was that neither seemed to have been tested yet and that these two together would provide a good level for support. My long term view on crude oil is bullish and I believed this type of action would provide a good entry point. However, this plan did not come through so I stood aside to let the market playout to determine another entry strategy. While watching the market in the charts I had published earlier, I decided to make some adjustments to see if I would have detected the market’s plan sooner providing an entry point. The following are the changes that I’ve made: Changed the timeframe of the Renko chart from 15 minutes to 1 minute. Without paying for a higher subscription in TV, 1 minute is as low of a timeframe as you can go with Renko. This alone changed the dynamics of the chart with a different view on the DMI and Stoch. Changed the slower Stoch from 25,3,3 to 50,3,3 (which is a setting I’ve experimented with in the past. The DMI remained the same as did the levels of importance for the ADX of 35 and 20. Added the BPP (Bull Bear Power) indicator and set it to an interval of 50. I’ve not used this indicator before but was experimenting with some items yesterday and found this. I set the line to a step line and you can see the results here. Added a 2-hour candle chart next to the Renko and will use it in conjunction with the Renko chart to make entry/exit decisions. Removed the manual Linear Regression from the Renko chart and have added them to the 2hr chart. This is a more natural fit and have maintained the default settings. I have added two LR indicators with one at 1 STD and one at 2 STD. Removed the manual drawings of the Camarilla pivots and have added them as indicators to the 2hr chart. Removed the volume profile from the Renko chart and have added it to the 2hr chart with a week timeframe. All markup for volume area, opening range, etc. will be put on the 2hr chart and will be for a weekly view. The Renko chart will remain to work for timings of entry and exits. Considering the 1-minute chart, you can see that there was a buy signal across several of the setups. As noted earlier, the consolidation on the 1 minute/25 tick Renko chart provided a signal that a breakout was coming. The slower Stoch set to 50,3,3 provided some insight into the direction with the break of the %k up over the %d and lastly, the new BBP gave an indication that the down move was a correction and that higher prices could be coming. A long wick and breakout of consolidation would have been a trigger to enter a trade of buying a Call option (see green arrow on Renko). Looking at the 2hr candle chart with the 2 linear regressions (1 and 2 STD respectively), then you can see where the support was formed then then where resistance was hit. The monthly and the weekly R4 provided resistance and now support is at the median of the current LR. Because the break of the weekly R3 was with a force with no test, my plan now is to find an entry long (an August Call) along this line which is also the same proximity of the weekly Pivot and the top of the week’s opening range (where the opening range for the week is defined as the first 5 2hr candles of the week. With a red brick in place on the 1 minute/25 tick chart, a green brick now would be a buying opportunity. I’ve added a consolidation channel across levels of what could be support for any pullback and could see another 25-tick brick in place before the green brick to the upside.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by mxb1961
A Renko Trading Strategy with Multiple IndicatorsThis study will walk through several concepts in analyzing crude oil. The primary chart type will be a Renko chart with the block size (ticks) set to 25 (0.25 in TV) and with a timeframe set to 15 minutes. The significance of timeframe is that in TV, it will take this amount of time for the price to maintain a full block change (25 cents) in order for it to be ‘printed’. In times of high volatility, a 15-minute window can allow for more than one block to print at the same time. While this may be a disadvantage in trading CL futures either day or swing trading, it helps filter out noise in the type of trading I do. The basic strategy I’m wanting to establish using this setup is the buying of options, either puts or calls, that are as near to the market as possible and to limit risk to a % of the value of the purchase price of the option. So, for example, if I pay $2,500.00 USD for a CLQ24 85 Call, I will limit my loss to 10% of that price should the market go against what I had expected. The chart setups and scenarios in this study will be based on Renko charts along with various indicators that will be discussed (for the most part individually). A view of 2024 based on the Renko setup. I will start with this basic view that has the Renko chart configured as outlined above with two linear regression drawings manually drawn on it. There is an indicator for LR which will follow each block change and change accordingly based on the lookback configuration. With the drawing tool, you can start and end the LR based on your strategy. In mine, I want to base the LR on price from a major low to a major high and then adjust based on if a new high or low is obtained. In this chart, I picked the low as that of late December (the first long black arrow). As an exercise, you can hit the new highs from this point to see how the LR adjusted and how future price flowed within it. There are two LR drawings on this chart; one with an upper and lower deviation set to 2/-2 and the second with a upper and lower deviation set to 1/-1 (these are the ones with dots for a boundary). In this specific chart, I’ve started with the latest high to be that on 01-March and with the LRs both extended to the right, you can see the price movement against these LR into the future. As price broke through the top of the LR recently, a new high was put in on 24-March and the adjustment of the LR will be shown next. With this new high confirmed, the LRs are both move to end at this high while keeping the original starting point the same. In this view, price pulled back to the top of the LR 1std and close here. With the LR extended, you can see where the mean is and a potential price target if just considering the LR itself. An expanded view of above: Next, I’ll introduce the DEMA and simple MA on the chart. There are two DEMAs added to the chart with one set to a period of 12 and one set to a period of 20. The significance of the two is that when the 12 (black on this chart) is above the 20 (red on this chart), then the trend is bullish and when the opposite, the trend is bearish. I use these two more for confirmation than for timing. If you study these, you’ll see that they lag for the most part but there are key times that they will provide insight to the direction of a market during times of consolidation. The next two indicators that I’ll introduce are the Stochastic and Directional Movement Index (DMI with the ADX). The experience of using these indicators on a Renko chart is like that on a candle chart except that the period is not for time but the number of bars that have been printed or committed. There are two Stochs used (5,3,3 and 25,3,3). The intent of the 5,3,3 is to provide a fast-moving change in momentum while the 25,3,3 is designed to provide insight to the momentum of the longer trend. Insight as to timing the entry and exit of trades may be possible with an in-depth understanding of the crossover of the 25,3,3 between the %k and the %d. The DMI can be used like it is against a candle chart but with settings at 5,5. This provides a faster moving indicator and, with some study, can determine the importance of the interactions between the 3 lines. There is one key aspect of this indicator with the Renko that works similar to the candle and that is of identifying pending consolidation of the market. In a traditional setup of the DMI on a candle chart, the settings are 14,14 and the line of 20 in the indicator is traditionally the line of strength. Meaning that when the ADX falling at or below the 20 line, then the trends are weak and the market is entering consolidation. During this time, the guidance from various sources is to look for patterns on the market and signs of a breakout. For the Renko charts, the are to watch for trend strength and consolidation is between the 35 and 20 area based on the analysis I’ve done. On the following chart, I’ve highlighted some of these areas of consolidation. Additionally, there is a notion of a high-swap of the +/-Dis which is when price has started moving strongly in one direction and then pivots to change direction and build into a strong trend from this. While in hindsight these look compelling, they can be difficult to trade in real-time, it’s difficult to differentiate between a high-swap and a future degradation of the trend that leads to consolidation. I think that the more reliable setup is finding the longer points of consolidation and prepare to trade in the breakout direction. As you can see on the close Friday, price has moved off of a new recent high and could now be trending down into a period of consolidation (if one were to use just the combination of the DMI and ADX). If you’ve not read “Secrets of a Pivot Boss” by Franklin O. Ochoa, I would encourage you to do so as it has many extremely valuable and innovative ideas in trading off volume, value, and pivots. The following discussions will be based on concepts from this book. The first covered will be that of volume area. I will not dig into the specifics of this but to just show one of the many indicators available in TradingView for these concepts. The volume indicators will work with Renko charts and the specific one I’m using allows me to set the increment of volume based on rows or ticks. I’ve chosen ticks and set the number to 5. With a 25 tick Renko chart, this will allow for a granularity of 5 rows per block for displaying the volume profile. In the chart below, I’ve highlighted a concept outlined in the book of the volume area that is extended out to the next trading day and is what forms the basis for 2-day volume area analysis. There are 6 scenarios that go with this analysis and the pink channels on the chart are intended to enable this view. The volume profile I’ve picked in the indicator is for the week so the analysis I do is for the week and not daily. One of the key setups from the book is an ‘inside day’ which you can see at the black arrow. An inside day is a day to watch for breakout (in this case it would be an inside week) and, after support was found, the price went higher. The last set of indicators that I’ll cover is the Camarilla Pivots. These too are covered in depth in the book referenced above as well as a wealth of details on the web. These pivots do not work on Renko charts so I will create a candle chart with an 8hr setting and then set up the monthly and yearly pivots on it. From this chart, I’ll copy key lines over to the Renko chart. This first chart is a view of the 25 tick, 15 minute chart going back to the beginning of 2024. I’ve labeled some of the key lines on this chart for both the year 2024 and the month of March. This is zoomed into the month of March. I believe a key concept that makes these pivots on the Renko with the timeframe powerful is the ability to see the tests that happen around the various pivots for both support and resistance. There is an entire trading strategy that is outlined in the book referenced above. The current price action seems to imply that price should come back to either the March R3 or the 2024 R3 (which is also the top of the value area for 2023). If price action does come back to these lines, careful attention should be paid to how support plays out and if a buying or selling opportunity arises from it. Next, I’ll provide a view with all of the reviewed items in one view. I’m standing aside on trading this for now until the current price action plays out and a cleaning view of potential trade comes into focus. Some observations considering what’s been discussed individually in this study: The DEMA is currently swapped to the bearish trend. The -DI is over the +DI which is a bearish trend. However, The ADX has been dropping to the 35 line but has not dropped in the 35 to 20 range to indicate a consolidation phase. The Stoch has not completely bottomed out long term and could see more downward movement. While price is at the top of the 1std of the LR, it could drop further. A drop and hold of the 2024 R3, March R3, top of the 2023 volume area, and the median of the current LR (all would be within proximity of each other) could be a strong buy setup. A break below these lines with an ensuing test from the bottom could be a strong sell setup. The relationship of the past two weeks’ volume area is bullish.
NYMEX:CL1!Education
by mxb1961
#NIFTY50 - Move ahead.1. Nifty is breached Bearish Golden Pivot Zone (GPZ) and trading above Monthly Cam H4( Bullish Breakout) and traditional pivot level R1. 2. Nifty levels 19751-19851 having very strong supply zone but the good news is Quarterly pivot is at 19695 above this level and past 3 sessions nifty closed above this level. we can say above 19700 is now a very strong support. 3. Volume on daily time frame is increasing and above 13 moving average. 4. If Nifty Daily close above 19888 then we will see new higher high in upcoming weeks.
NSE:NIFTYLong
by Game_0f_Pivot
EURUSD full weekly AnalysisSMA 20 of Daily chart alamost matches with SMA 480 of hourly chart. SMA20 of daily chart was a great trend detector for the pair recently so I'll use 480 in hourlt chart. According the SMA20 we are still bullish. By deeper look at Daily chart a bullish channel could be seen that proves bullish trend. Also a great SNR zone is obviously clear in daily chart. I think last week was just a correction. By looking at 1H zone, we could see conflux of mighty SMA480, Camarilla pivot level of S3, Daily S&R zone and also a strong Delta Volume important zone. There is a high probability of rejection from the zone. About the delta volume: There were strong buyers in last bullish move, but in some points there were slightly stronger sellers, market tends to reverse from those critical points. Looking at IG sentiment factor we'll get that sentiment indicators worked reversely in recent weeks. So strong sellers can not hesitate me. Market may avoid sharp moves before FOMC meeting at Wednesday. TP1 : 1.116 TP2 : 1.121 TP3 : 1.130
Long
by AliSignals
2
BTC camarilla monthly pivotsSomething interesting to see. compare this month camarilla monthly pivots to last months. also look at the oscillation and divergences. Last month price opened in the middle, went to L3 with bear divergence and then went to H3. So far this month it is doing the exact same thing. What does it mean? it means I would not worry until that L4 is taken out for more doom targets and would not rule out a move to H3 and the possibility that the projected monthly range is respected.
by Gunslinger2005
BTC bitcoin monthly camarillaThese levels are important ones imo. It is possible we range between H3 and L3. beyond those we could get stabs to H4 or L4. But with daily closures or strong breaks of H4 or L4 I would look for continuation to H5 or L5 for range breakout targets. These are monthly camarilla pivot points. Right now btc is resting and making support out of the central pivot and cpr (purple levels). I would not even look for short term downside until we break and start closing under that first
by Gunslinger2005