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Camarilla Pivot Points

Bullish trend to continueMonthly and weekly R4 roof (last week) breakouts. Last week´s R4 breakout continue the next week usually. Price pulled back to weekly pivot (as it usually does) and hit weekly reversal level S3. DM breakout projection (using daily chart ) sends price to weekly R5. PS Gold is a class of its own. It trends differently from other commodities ( oil , copper ). Huge demand for gold in times of covid crisis. I would not expect any big bearish sell offs now. ---------- For educational purposes only.
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ICFX
1
EXY - Bearish engulfingBearish engulfing is one of the most reliable trading patterns (along with morning star) and in 80 percent cases generates a bearish reversal. Here, bearish candle engulfed 2 previous days what is rather significant. Price usually pulls back to the middle of bearish engulfing pattern before further drop. That is what we observing on Euro index. We also reached weekly R3 reversal level. Note also how price reacts at Camarilla S3-R3 reversal levels (those levels contain so called "value zone") and Camarilla S4-R4 breakout levels (so called "floor and roof") For educational purposes only.
TVC:EXYShort
by ICFX
EURUSD Cam S4 R4 yearlyIn this post we analyzed the breakdowns (breakouts) of Camarilla S4 R4 yearly pivots, so called yearly floor and roof levels and what impact those rather significant events had on EURUSD weekly chart. As you see, each such breakdown generated violent moves (yellow) that often lasted into the next year. If there S4-R4 violation did not generate such a move it was because those levels were broken during the previous year or two and proceeding yearly break exhausted itself. There was no such violation in 2018 and 2019 to give us reasons to believe that the current break will not succeed. Besides that, we have got a thinnest yearly CPR in EURUSD history. As we noted earlier thin CPRs are forecasters of volatility (and volatility is the major sign of crisis). We ought also notice CPR alternation principle (thin CPR trend - wide CPR congestion) that is often observed as demonstrated above (1,2,3 in late 1990s). By this principle, 2020 should be a trending market, while in 2021 we will see a retrace (recovery) and congestion. For educational purposes only.
Short
by ICFX
EURNZD 4 hrsThe bullish breakout was missing some qualifiers. So it failed to reach projected target. Right now we at weekly top price, at same time it might be test of the previous high (LH). The bearish breakdown´s qualifiers OK. The projected target (yearly PP) should be reached in the long run. Weekly CPR suggests volatility for the current week. Current move is likely to end at Cam S5 - coincides with last month S1, monthly CPR. Price is moving to test missed monthly CPR (expect a bounce there). This thing correlates with GBPAUD. This is no financial advise. Top Absolute Correlation 1 EURNZD - NZDCHF -97.3% 2 EURNZD - GBPNZD 89.0% 3 EURNZD - NZDUSD -88.7% 4 EURNZD - GBPAUD 85.7% 5 EURNZD - NZDJPY -85.5% 6 EURNZD - AUDJPY -84.0% 7 EURNZD - UK100 -83.7% 8 EURNZD - CHFSGD 81.0%
Short
by ICFX
Monthly camarilla levels on the 1D. H3 or L3? 7.9 or 4.8? As you can see wen have the short signal. though volume is not impressive for either side. puttin in pullback from bullish activity. and Maybe we will test the monthly pivot at 6.4. If that level breaks the lower ones become much easier. The momentum and occilators and diversion detectors and things like machD stoch MFI RSI PPO are at the bottom. detected this is very toppish look on the daily as of right now. What do you think may happen? Also we seem to have given up the 21 EMA (yellow line) on the daily. though not closed yet
DERIBIT:BTCUSD.P
by Gunslinger2005
Target yearly PPYearly PP remains an unclosed level, major missed pivot. Price will surely return to it. This is some sort of bump and run reversal. Now we are in run phase. Breakdown confirms the move. DM projection sends price to yearly Cam S3. Look for short setups on minor timeframes. This is no financial advise. Top Absolute Correlation 1 GBPAUD - AUDJPY -80.8% 2 GBPAUD - AUDCHF -79.6% 3 GBPAUD - EURAUD 79.4% 4 GBPAUD - AUDSGD -76.4% 5 GBPAUD - JPN225 -75.9% 6 GBPAUD - AUDNZD -74.7% 7 GBPAUD - AUDUSD -74.5% 8 GBPAUD - EURNZD 74.1% 9 GBPAUD - NZDCHF -73.2% 10 GBPAUD - NZDJPY -73.0%
Short
by ICFX
Audnzd - weeklyAudnzd was rejected from monthly roof cam R4 and from the the top of regression channel. And if we consider previous breakout structure the projected move becomes pretty clear. I needed to check this as this thing correlates with EUR and AUD. I would look for short setups on minor timeframes when price gets below yearly pivot (red line). This is no financial advise. Top Absolute Correlation 1 AUDNZD - AUDCAD 85.9% 2 AUDNZD - EURAUD -85.5% 3 AUDNZD - AUDSGD 85.0% 4 AUDNZD - AUDCHF 81.8% 5 AUDNZD - NAS100 81.1% 6 AUDNZD - AUDUSD 80.1% 7 AUDNZD - EURGBP -77.9%
Short
by ICFX
Developing breakdownBreakdown is likely as we got DM breakdown qualifier 1 (prebreakout candle pullback - that green bullish weekly candle, then - the next bearish candle managed to close right on the trendline signifying strong bearish pressure. Current week's candle should be nice bearish breakdown candle). Intermediate target DM montly pivot. Ca. 53 pips. Long term target classic monthly S1. Top Absolute Correlation 1 SGDJPY - CADJPY 90.5% 2 SGDJPY - NZDJPY 87.3% 3 SGDJPY - SEKJPY 86.4% 4 SGDJPY - ZARJPY 85.6% 5 SGDJPY - AUDJPY 85.4% 6 SGDJPY - GBPCHF 84.6% 7 SGDJPY - JPN225 83.2% 8 SGDJPY - USDSGD -82.6% 9 SGDJPY - HK50.n 81.8% 10 SGDJPY - HK50 81.7%
Short
by ICFX
Breakdown OKFree signal. TD Breakdown valid. Breakdown qualifiers OK. Trendline retested. This is very similiar setup as on EURUSD as both things correlate. It is good entry because price reversed at yearly pivot level S2 having retested it. Price usually reverses at yearly pivots (traditional). DM projection target coincides with monthly pivot - May close - what makes sense. THIS IS NO FINANCIAL ADVISE. Top Absolute Correlation 4 hrs 1 AUDUSD - AUDCHF 97.7% 2 AUDUSD - AUDSGD 96.0% 3 AUDUSD - EURAUD -95.8% 4 AUDUSD - GBPAUD -94.2% 5 AUDUSD - GBPUSD 92.3% 6 AUDUSD - AUDJPY 91.9% 7 AUDUSD - AUDCAD 89.6% 8 AUDUSD - USDRUB -87.4% 9 AUDUSD - USDHUF -86.7% 10 AUDUSD - US2000 86.4%
Short
by ICFX
DM analysisThere was a major breakout on daily and 4 hrs chart, the move is not completed. What we are seeing now is a pullback to weekly CPR - monthly S3 value top (that is where DM projection sends it), a short term bearish counter-trend move. From there I would look for a great long setup. Top Absolute Correlation 1 XAUUSD - XAUEUR 97.7% 2 XAUUSD - XAGEUR 93.2% 3 XAUUSD - XAGUSD 90.9% 4 XAUUSD - USDJPY -90.6% 5 XAUUSD - AUDNZD 87.3% 6 XAUUSD - XPTUSD 85.6% 7 XAUUSD - EURHUF -83.0% 8 XAUUSD - GBPSGD 82.9% 9 XAUUSD - GBPNOK 82.7% 10 XAUUSD - AUDSGD 81.8%
OANDA:XAUUSDLong
by ICFX
How to use CamarillaCamarilla is the one of the best indicators, if not the best. It is better than classic pivot points. It detects the most important daily, weekly, monthly and yearly levels that you would have hard time to find yourself. It is leading indicator and plots ahead of time (day, week, month, year) and its static, does not change. It is a rule based system of its own and allows you immediately to evaluate the situation and project the likely move. You can use Camarilla as a trading system on its own. On daily you use monthly Camarilla (daily candle has to close above certain level to confirm breakout) On 1-4 hours you use weekly Camarilla Timeframes up to 1 hour you use daily Camarilla. Higher value relationships between 2 consequent days or weeks values (fair price) zones S3R3 means trending market. Narrow squeeze of value zone within previous value zone predicts volatility. Expansion of consequent value zone predicts ranging market. I used GBP index as example - with one look you can see easily detect that weekly value of GBP is too expensive and selling might start from this point. One needs some practice to learn to use it...
Education
by ICFX
1
Important to understand1. Lower value relationship btw yearly value zones 2019 - 2020 - predicts bear market 2. Thinnest yearly CPR in decades - predicts massive volatility in 2020 3. 2020 floor broken - by CAM rules fall to S5 (coincides with 2018 breakout projection) 4. Yearly open below 2020 pivot - predicts bear market 5. Uncompleted breakdown projection from the 2018 (still working out) 6. Failed bullish breakout and failed retest. Is there much to go up if breakout repeats itself? No, bcs of narrow channel. 7. We are about to break historic uptrend line that goes back to the introduction of EURO in 2000 and DEM low of 1985. 8. Eurozone interest rate - 0. FED interest rate - 0.25. What's the point in accumulating EURO vs USD? 9. COVID instability around the world and devaluation of numerous currencies = all buy dollar.
Short
by ICFX
Weekly pivot (unclosed level) retestThis is what I see. We did complete Demark breakout projection for now and touched the unclosed level - missed weekly pivot. We do have a missed monthly pivot and price might go to retest that unclosed level. But missed monthly pivot might mark a start of significant downtrend. And for price to get there it has to break weekly ceiling CAMS4. A break through CAMS4 would require price to move far above monthly pivot what I find unlikely considering the fact we already broke yearly CAMS4 and are in a heavy bear market... Last week we broke weekly floor CAMS4 and price did not complete the break move to last week´s CAMS5 - this scenario I find more likely. THIS IS NO FINANCIAL ADVISE.
Short
by ICFX
1
Further drop expectedMarch 13 2020 amid post Brexit troubles and Coronavirus paralysis panic sell started GBPUSD broke the yearly floor and started a free fall. Though we did complete the yearly breakdown move (2 x the distance CAMS3 to CAMS4, i.e. CAMS5, not plotted as no such tool on TV) but weekly CPR and Weekly Camarilla predict further drop to weekly CAMS3-CAMS4 zone. This would be yearly CAMS6 but I didnt plot that (no such yearly tool on TV) As coronavirus hits UK and Eurozone faces toughest times since World War II do not expect big boys to start accumulating the unsafe GBP, no sound reasons for that! Fall or range at very best... This is no financial advise. Just observation.
Short
by ICFX