CCJ BottomReally like what I am seeing here. Very possible 1-2 1-2 pattern forming. Looking as though an entire EW cycle which started in 2001 may be complete. I like this play because I believe the entire uranium market is looking for a bottom. I know may traders that are interested in the market. I have also talked with a trusted CFA and he also likes this stocks numbers. I am confidently buying here between $8-$9. When the fundamentals are strong and the technicals align with the narrative, price discovery can be powerful. I am #Bullish.
Cameco
CamecoBuying at below $10, small positions to begin with. from a macro point of view Trump will support the US nuclear industry by making harder for countries like Kazakhstan to import. 20% of the USA energy is generated by nuclear. Productionn as been locked in.. the uranium price as risen from 20-26 in 2018. In 4-5 years you will look at the price and think why wasnt i loading up then
Is the Uranium meltdown finally over?This may be the key resistance break Uranium investors and speculators have been waiting for. The entire Uranium sector has been one of the saddest beaten dogs I've seen in a while - wrecked for years after Fukushima...That fakeout in early 2017 was brutal for top buyers. All it seemed to take was CCJ shutting a mine down recently to light a fire under this dead dogs ass and we've seen a rocket ship rally since...I've been long URA for a while and am now interested to see if we finally have the conditions to sustain a longer-term uptrend.
The road to $30 is loaded with resistance, however, given enough time I think bulls will begin testing higher levels. I am a buyer of dips and will sell portions of my position on spikes as this is clearly a very volatile sector.
Uranium - Light at the end of the tunnel?I don´t think there is a sector that is more hated than uranium. Everything looks very bleak. This is a true contrarian bet.
I`m using Cameco as a proxy for the uranium market.
As you can see in the chart, this might be the first time in the last 5 years that the uranium market is going to make a higher yearly low.
The entry provides a great R/R as one can set SL right below the recent lows or below 2016 lows.
If there was anyone left holding long it seems they capitulated on friday, when Cameco announced its third quarter loss.
I plan to hold this stock among other uranium companies multiple years, as long as the general markets don´t collapse or there is another Fukushima like event.
Company related worries:
- Tax dispute with the Canada Revenue Agency, billions of dollars at stake, decision is expected within the next 18 months
- Dispute with TEPCO, which recently terminated massive supply deal, the case is expected to be heard in 2019
- Cameco stopped selling into the spot market, most of its contract portfolio will expire in 2021, if spot prices don´t rise until then, Cameco would likely loose this Game of Chicken with power companies
The key to me is this: Before Fukushima utilities bought uranium 5-10 years in advance, now they are buying 2-3 years in advance. This is understandable given the uncertainty around the future of nuclear power and current oversupply. It left the market with little buyers and low volume transactions determining the price, but also hundred millions of pounds of uranium that aren't currently covered by supply contracts. (800 million pounds between now and 2026 according to Cameco) One can easily see what could happen if these power companies were forced to cover their contracts into rising prices.
-> In the end it will come down to whose projections of future global nuclear power capacity prove correct.
Outside of some black swan event that crushes the supply side, i think this market will come back to life as it died, through Japan.
Five reactors have restarted to date, a further 21 reactors are in the process of restart approval.
With Abe winning the election this seems only a matter of time.
My first "target" for the market would be to not make a lower low than in 2016. Ideally stay above recent lows.
In 2018-2020 I want to see uranium prices start to rise slowly.
Longterm I´m looking for a price of 60$ per pound.
Cameco LONG and 600% profit! Or everyone forgot about nucleus...10 years down...
Nuclear energy now is not fashionable.
The nuclear industry is now not popular.
Everyone forgot about it...
A good opportunity to buy cheap $11, cheap leader. With the goal $66 and earn 600%, probably will $8, good chance 825% $14 key level. Secured OVER $14 then $66 in your pocket:)
The idea is not canceled! No stops! It is not trade, it is the possession!
Enterprise Value/EBITDA 9.20
Debt/EBITDA 1.4
Not too cheap, but the company will increase EBITDA and will be growing!
Important remind: Stock - is not a line in the terminal, but a share in a real company! There will always be people who will want this share to increase!