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ridethepig | GBPCAD Market Commentary 2020.07.24⚡️ GBPCAD Fast Flows Here we are trading the breakdown in GBPCAD, with the possible intention of adding on momentum. The question is whether Seller's position is strong enough to put up with such a hammer? Possible similar moves to the previous crash which we traded live: By losing yesterday's lows in GBPCAD, buyers defeat will be seen and the combination of a minimum ABC sequence follows. Tracking 1.708x => 1.689x as the combination blow. But we can of course take it leisurely, assuming the breakdown occurs the flows will be so strong that we need have no anxiety of continuing to add size on. This is because we are able to avoid with a cheeky grin all of our unaware opponents, no matter the reply. Strong and decisive... but so clean and simple. One of my favourite moves. Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍 or 👎
Short
by ridethepig
7
PBoC, Inflation and Jobless Claims – Week aheadThe markets continue to grapple with the immediate effects of the Coronavirus. The second wave in pockets of the world has forced cities to take active measures to control the virus. Melbourne, Australia has gone into a secondary lockdown while Florida and Los Angeles see cases surge, with the Mayor of Los Angeles stating that the city is “on the brink” and a Democratic representative from Florida reports the outbreak is “totally out of control.” Here is your week ahead Monday, 20 July – Peoples Bank of China Interest Rate decision China’s Central Bank, the Peoples Bank of China has been wary of cutting interest rates, even during the peak of the pandemic. Ma Jun, a PBOC adviser, stated in early April, “The PBOC doesn’t use its bullets all at once. China has plenty of room in monetary policy.” The PBOC has kept interest rates at 3.85%, after dropping it 30 basis points from 4.05% in April. However, forecasts and estimates expect the PBoC to keep rates as is at 3.85% this week ahead. Tuesday, 21 July – Inflation rate YoY Bank of Japan With 660 new cases of the Coronavirus yesterday, Japan has struggled to keep ahead of the virus after the world praised it for its lighter approach to restrictions. However, that approach, as seen similarly from Australia, has not bode well for the country. Japan has seen triple-digit daily increases for the whole month of July. This has caused consumption and spending to decrease dramatically. Analysts predict an inflation rate of 0.1%; however, there is a high chance that this may be pushed to the downside, which may put downward pressure on the JPY. Tuesday, 21 July – Reserve Bank of Australia minutes Australia is continuing to grapple with the effects of the Coronavirus, with Melbourne being put back into lockdown and the state of Victoria imposing mandatory mask restrictions. With RBA minutes earlier in the year having a tone of optimism, likely, that tone will not continue here. The second lockdown is a massive blow to the country, socially and economically. The Trans-Tasman bubble between New Zealand and Australia has been delayed, with economic activity in the state of Victoria plummeting. We may see Aussie weakness against its New Zealand counterpart as Australia reels back their reopening. Thursday 21st July – Canada Consumer Price Index (CPI) Canada continues to post double-digit daily Coronavirus cases as they, too, implemented a looser lockdown restriction like Japan and Australia. We saw a drop in the CPI from March to April as citizens decreased their spending. We saw a slight increase in the Month of May, however, analysts expect to stabilize around 137 for the month of June. Thursday 23 July, US Initial Jobless Claims With Initial Jobless Claims posting the smallest decline since March last week, the US jobs market is showing a slight rebound. However, we are all aware of the current situation with the Coronavirus cases in the US. Florida and Los Angeles are posting daily record numbers every week, while President Donald Trump focuses on reopening the economy and the US-China trade deals. I expect this number to slowly creep up as the full effects the second wave of the Coronavirus becomes evident. Analysts predict Jobless Claims to drop to 1.29m from 1.3m previously. We have seen this mindset in the market, which discounts negative news and rallies on positive news. This is partially due to liquidity propping up many markets. Investors and traders must take this into account when placing trades.
SP:SPX
by BlackBull_Markets
ridethepig | CAD Quarterly Outlook 📍 USDCAD Prepare for a flush in CAD with the ever-present threat of Canadian tariffs from Trump. Protectionism is excellent at the best of times...let alone in the middle of a pandemic... right 🥺 The unwinding is picking up speed - RSI on track for the decline and pressure looks set to carry us into the 70 handle. => A possible breakdown can also now be met with the USDCAD flows. As you can see, the CAD weakness has affected the basing structure and now sellers of the Canadian Dollar will deprive buyers the fruits of their deeply laid plans of Dollar devaluation across the board. Thanks to a little tactical finesse, to this trade.
TVC:CXYShort
by ridethepig
4
ridethepig | USDCAD Market Commentary 2020.06.17📍 USDCAD On the Canada side... This flow has become particularly interesting over the past few sessions, large macro hands front running BOC and piling into corporate debt and helping CAD hold at these levels. The risk to Canada really comes from the housing market, as soon as the stimulus stabilisers are off there will need to be another miracle to avoid panic selling. With stimulus retreating before the labour market has healed, the pressures on homes will become a blunder. This is so obvious and would be a blunder to miss. Now we are tracking a return back home, to the mean in a good mood - If buyers resign on the retest we can see the wave truncated (we'll keep updating the charts for this one). For those tracking EURCAD ...
Long
by ridethepig
6
HUGE 371pip short on CADCHFToday I entered a huge huge 371pip short on CADCHF - with the reward risk ratio of 7.41. I'm looking for a break of the marked 4H structure and for it to retest and continue down to the desired target of 0.66215. I know a lot of people will say this is ambitious, and I agree - but I from an analysis that I'm following and have checked out. I feel that this is a great opportunity for a longterm short. Something I'll be keeping in mind would be the news coming from Canada on Wednesday - especially the CPI report which will certainly have some High Impact on the Pair. Please let me know your guys thoughts! *Please note this is my own personal analysis, and I strongly recommend that you carry out your own analysis before executing a trade. Please do not take this analysis as gospel.*
Short
by danieljamesfx
1
The Canadian dollar is waiting for a sharp rise or fallAs you can see in the USDCAD currency pair chart, the Como cloud has been flattened and its thickness has been minimized, so we expect it to break the price. In the CCI indicator, we expect the price to reach the trend line and break it upwards, in which case we will see a pullback and then we will see the price increase up to 200. If the price fails to break the CCI trend line, it could be a signal to lower the price, and we expect the price to then cross the cloud and fall to the price of 1.34900, otherwise the price could cross the resistance range (orange). ) Pass and increase to the target of 1.36867. 🔸Signal by Yazdani
by hervess