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USD/CAD: What to Expect from BoC Next Week? USD/CAD: What to Expect from BoC Next Week? Canada’s central bank is set to announce its next rate decision on Oct. 23, with Canadian banks largely anticipating a 50-basis-point cut. A similar reduction is also expected at the BoC's final meeting of the year on Dec. 11. For the exact date and time of these major economic events, import the BlackBull Markets Economic Calendar to receive alerts directly in your email inbox. The prospect of back-to-back cuts is weighing heavily on the Canadian dollar, which touched to a two-month low of 1.383 against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday. Technical indicators, including moving averages, suggest a potential short-term bullish trend for the pair. Meanwhile, in the U.S., Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari indicated this week that any future rate cuts from the Federal Reserve could be "modest." Which the market might be interpreting as a bias for a smaller 25-basis point cut.
by BlackBull_Markets
TD Bank Faces $3 Billion Fine Amid Money Laundering ScandalTD Bank (NYSE: TSX:TD ), Canada's second-largest bank, has been hit hard by a $3 billion penalty following its guilty plea in a high-profile money laundering case involving drug cartels and other criminal networks. This hefty fine is a result of TD’s failure to monitor over $18.3 trillion in customer activity, leading to more than $670 million being funneled through accounts associated with money laundering schemes. As part of the settlement, TD Bank will face severe growth restrictions and the implementation of a stringent oversight program for its U.S. operations. The Whole Story The Department of Justice (DOJ) and federal financial regulators have highlighted TD Bank’s negligence in addressing anti-money laundering (AML) concerns. According to Attorney General Merrick Garland, the bank’s profit-driven mindset allowed it to turn a blind eye to the illegal activities of drug traffickers, leading to TD Bank becoming complicit in these crimes. In addition to the financial penalty, TD’s U.S. subsidiaries are restricted from growing their total assets beyond $434 billion, similar to the Federal Reserve’s sanctions on Wells Fargo in 2018. This settlement is expected to severely impact TD Bank’s business outlook. The $1.8 billion portion of the penalty to the DOJ marks one of the largest fines in U.S. banking history. Additionally, the Treasury Department's Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN) imposed a record $1.3 billion penalty and will monitor TD Bank for four years to ensure compliance. TD’s leadership, including CEO Bharat Masrani, has taken responsibility for the bank’s failures, pledging to make the necessary changes to its AML program. While this is a major step, it might not be enough to win back the trust of stakeholders in the short term. The controversy surrounding TD Bank's role in criminal activities, including narcotics trafficking and terrorist financing, poses a significant challenge for the institution’s reputation. Technical Analysis TD Bank's stock has faced substantial pressure as the scandal unfolded. As of the latest trading session, (NYSE: TSX:TD ) has dropped over 6%, indicating a selling spree by investors wary of the bank's future prospects. The stock’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) has dipped to a weak 33, suggesting that it is entering oversold territory. This RSI level reflects a stock that could continue to decline if further negative sentiment prevails. On the daily price chart, TD Bank (NYSE: TSX:TD ) is exhibiting a classic gap-down pattern, a strong bearish reversal signal. This pattern, combined with the overwhelming negative fundamentals, indicates that the stock could face further declines in the near term. Despite this, TD Bank (NYSE: TSX:TD ) is trading above both its 100-day and 200-day moving averages (MAs), signaling that there is still some long-term technical support. If the stock can stabilize at these levels, it might be able to recover some losses once the immediate effects of the scandal subside. However, breaking below these key moving averages could signal deeper trouble ahead. What’s Next for TD Bank? TD Bank’s near-term future remains uncertain as it grapples with the fallout from its guilty plea. The penalties will not only hamper its financial performance but also restrict its growth, particularly in the highly competitive U.S. market. The negative publicity surrounding the scandal and the regulatory restrictions could erode investor confidence, leading to more volatility in the stock price. However, with TD Bank’s commitment to rectifying its AML program and the backing of a strong leadership team, the bank may be able to weather the storm. Long-term investors will be closely watching how the bank implements its corrective actions and manages regulatory oversight in the coming years. In the short term, TSX:TD is in for a bumpy ride. With the technical indicators pointing towards more downside risk, traders should keep an eye on the 100-day and 200-day moving averages as potential support levels. If these break, the stock could face a steeper decline.
NYSE:TDShort
by DEXWireNews
2
XIU / TSX (Toronto Stock Exchange)The TSX / XIU (ETF) is going down over the next 8 months, no doubt in my mind as a Canadian. Housing is not selling, starts are being cancelled / going bankrupt, we are over-populated and our infrastructure can not handle it. The rate decreases won't save our over-leveraged banks (real-estate, mostly residential, down 20% in many areas and still barely any buyers and many looking to exit - investors primarily). No way this holds these levels. I bought Feb 2025 $34 puts for $0.65 CAD. I expect this could be a ten bagger, especially if they finally admit Canada and USA and the world is in a massive recession. It is undeniable here. Foodbanks are empty and people are too strapped to donate (or are sick of seeing "students" from India eating "free food" meant for Canadians - many of whom are struggling). This stock price is a joke. Good luck to all!
TSX:XIUShort
by mraso30
3
Volatile Week for USD/CAD? Volatile Week for USD/CAD? The Bank of Canada (BoC) is anticipated to lower rates by 25 basis points on Wednesday, bringing the policy rate down to 4.25%. This expectation follows a recent CPI report that indicated further easing in core inflation, coupled with weaker labor market data. While a 50-basis point cut seems unlikely, it can't be entirely dismissed. In the July monetary policy meeting, Governor Tiff Macklem suggested that the focus may shift towards supporting economic growth rather than solely controlling inflation. Additionally, Canada's August employment report is set to be released on Friday, coinciding with the US nonfarm payrolls report. This timing could heighten uncertainty and volatility in the USD/CAD pair. A key level to watch will be the 1.3570-1.3600 zone, which previously served as a significant support area. Whether this area will be re-tested remains to be seen.
by BlackBull_Markets
BOC Rate Cut Bets Grow as Loonie Stands Firm R2 1.3947 – 5 August/2024 high – Strong R1 1.3900 – Figure – Medium S1 1.3718 – 9 August low – Medium S2 1.3700 – 19 July low – Medium We remain in the thick of thin summer trade, something that must be taken into consideration when reflecting on price action. The market has done a good job overall recovering from last Monday’s panic mess and the question on everyone’s mind is whether or not all of that doom and gloom is behind us or just the start to another intense wave of risk off flow. The Canadian Dollar held up rather well on Friday despite the discouraging Canada employment report. The local rate market has now begun to price in the 10% possibility for an even bigger 50 basis point rate cut at the Bank of Canada's next meeting in early September. Key standouts on Monday’s calendar come from German wholesale prices, Canada building permits, US consumer inflation expectations, and the US monthly budget statement. A sustained hold above 1.3000 over the past several months signals an end to a period of longer-term bearish consolidation and suggests the market is in the process of carving out a more significant longer-term base. Next key resistance now comes in up into the 1.4000 area, with a break to open a retest of the 2020 high just ahead of 1.4700. Setbacks should be very well supported down into the 1.3000 area. Exclusive FX research from LMAX Group Market Strategist, Joel Kruger
by BlackBull_Markets
1
USDCAD Analysis: Anticipating a New Bullish ImpulseUSDCAD is beginning a new bullish impulse after retesting the previous resistance area, which has now transformed into a strong demand zone. This retest is a crucial technical signal, suggesting that the pair is poised for a potential new upward movement. By examining the Commitment of Traders (COT) report, we observe that the positioning of large traders supports a bullish outlook for the USD against the Canadian Dollar. This sentiment is further reinforced by our supply and demand analysis, which highlights the demand zone as a key level where buying interest has emerged, providing a foundation for the price to move higher. Seasonality trends also play a significant role in our analysis. Historically, this period of the year tends to favor a stronger USD against the CAD, adding another layer of confidence to our bullish forecast. The confluence of these factors—the retest of the demand zone, favorable COT positioning, and positive seasonality—strengthens our expectation of a sustained upward movement in USDCAD. We are closely monitoring the price action and are prepared to capitalize on this bullish setup. Should the price continue to rise from the current levels, we anticipate further gains. However, it's essential to remain vigilant and adapt to any market changes that might influence our analysis. Additionally, for a comprehensive understanding of the factors influencing this expected bullish trend, please follow our detailed analysis on CAD futures provided below. This in-depth analysis will offer insights into the broader market dynamics affecting the Canadian Dollar and support our long position strategy in USDCAD. ✅ Please share your thoughts about USDCAD in the comments section below and HIT LIKE if you appreciate my analysis. Don't forget to FOLLOW ME; you will help us a lot with this small contribution.
Long
by FOREXN1
1
Key Canadian trading events this week On Friday, alongside the US PCE data release, Canada will publish its Q1 GDP growth figures. Earlier in the week, Canada will also release its producer prices data. Note that US markets will be closed on Monday for Memorial Day. According to the Royal Bank of Canada, the Canadian economy likely grew more quickly in Q1 2024 based on headline figures. However, this growth was still insufficient to keep pace with the surging population. Consequently, GDP per capita contracted for the seventh consecutive quarter. Speaking of the Royal Bank of Canada, they will also be reporting its earnings this week, along with other major Canadian banks. Tuesday, May 28 Earnings: Bank of Nova Scotia Wednesday, May 29 Earnings: Bank of Montreal, National Bank, EQB Inc. Thursday, May 30 Earnings: CIBC, Royal Bank of Canada Friday, May 31 8:30 a.m. Canada Q1 GDP Earnings: Laurentian Bank, Western Bank The USD/CAD ended its four-day winning streak on Friday, closing down by half a percent at approximately 1.3660. Declining crude oil prices had been putting pressure on the CAD until now. Buyers could step in around this level for a potential bounce back though. Additionally, the upcoming OPEC+ meeting on June 2 could influence this pair. Market participants are watching for potential output cut extensions by major producers to address global oversupply concerns and support prices, which might cause hesitation among USD/CAD buyers at the 1.3660 level.
by BlackBull_Markets
CADCHF: Important ZonesTraders, D: 4h: Our strategy for this pair involves positioning our orders strategically below the liquidity hunt. By placing our orders in this manner, we aim to capitalize on potential market movements following the liquidity hunt, maximizing our chances of entering favorable positions. As we await the release of Canadian Retail Sales data, it's crucial to remain mindful of its potential impact on market direction. Should there be any notable surprises in the Retail Sales month-over-month figures, it could prompt shifts in market sentiment. Particularly, figures below -0.2% may pose risks to the current trend, while numbers exceeding 0.3% could warrant reassessment of our current zones. Stay informed and prepared to adjust your trading strategy accordingly based on the outcome of the data release. Best regards,
Long
by AliSignals
Lower Canadian CPI brings interest rate cut closerCANADIAN CPI, OANDA:USDCAD ANALYSIS - Canadian inflation slows more than expected in February – raising USD/CAD - Markets bring a potential BoC cut closer while delaying the onset of Fed cuts - USD/CAD’s bullish response tapered off but pair heads for channel resistance CANADIAN INFLATION SLOWS MORE THAN EXPECTED IN FEBRUARY – RAISING USD/CAD Canadian inflation, both core and headline measures, came in lower than last month's figures. CPI was well below the estimated 3.1% at 2.8%. The core measure reached lows not seen in over two years, putting pressure on the Bank of Canada to consider loosening financial conditions. In comparison to countries with inflation rates of 8% or higher, Canada stands out as a standout performer, as shown in the graph below. Annual Percentage Change in Inflation (CPI) OANDA:USDCAD BULLISH RESPONSE TAPERED OFF BUT PAIR HEADS FOR CHANNEL RESISTANCE USD/CAD continued its bullish momentum after softer inflation data but lost some steam during the New York session. The current upward move was triggered by a bounce off channel support at 1.3420, breaking above the 200-day simple moving average and reaching 1.3500. 1.3500 has previously acted as both support and resistance since October 2022. The current trend aims to test channel resistance, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the major 2020-2022 move (1.3651). However, today's significant upper wick suggests that bulls may need to regroup before pushing higher. Canada has been successful in keeping inflation within the targeted range of 1-3% set by the Bank. Based on implied probabilities from rate markets, the Bank of Canada may need to prepare for a rate cut in June. There is a 62% chance of a cut at that time. The Canadian dollar may face pressure due to consistently low inflation, which could lead to easing monetary policy. On the other hand, market estimates for when the Fed may cut interest rates have been pushed back from June to July. This delay in monetary easing supports the US dollar, as it is expected to have a higher interest rate compared to most G7 currencies for a little longer.
by Xayah_trading
Hut 8 Shuts Down Alberta Bitcoin Mine Amid Energy CrisisHut 8 Mining Corp ( NASDAQ:HUT ), a prominent player in the cryptocurrency mining industry, faces the harsh reality of the energy crisis as it announces the immediate closure of its Bitcoin mining facility in Drumheller, Alberta, Canada. The decision, driven by escalating energy costs and power disruptions, underscores the challenges confronting miners in today's volatile market environment. The Drumheller site, once a cornerstone of Hut 8's ( NASDAQ:HUT ) operations, now symbolizes the struggle against the mounting pressures of the energy crisis. CEO Asher Genoot's acknowledgment of elevated energy costs and voltage issues reflects the harsh economic realities that have forced the company's hand in shutting down operations. In a strategic pivot, Hut 8 plans to relocate its Bitcoin miners to its Medicine Hat facility, seeking refuge in a more stable operating environment. The closure of the Drumheller site echoes broader trends in Alberta's energy landscape, characterized by soaring electricity prices and regulatory scrutiny over cryptocurrency mining projects. The province's 1,000% increase in electricity prices since 2017, coupled with government concerns over power usage, has cast a shadow over the viability of mining operations. The looming Bitcoin halving event adds another layer of complexity, further dampening profitability prospects for miners already grappling with market uncertainties. Hut 8's ( NASDAQ:HUT ) financial woes mirror the challenges confronting the cryptocurrency market at large. A 57% decline in revenue for the first nine months of 2023 reflects the downward pressure exerted by falling Bitcoin prices. Despite these setbacks, Hut 8 ( NASDAQ:HUT ) remains a formidable presence in the Bitcoin network, contributing significantly to its processing power. In addition to operational challenges, Hut 8 ( NASDAQ:HUT ) has weathered scrutiny in the financial markets. Allegations of legal issues involving its partner, USBTC, in a $725 million merger deal rattled investor confidence, leading to a sharp decline in the company's stock. Hut 8 ( NASDAQ:HUT ) has vehemently refuted these claims, emphasizing its commitment to transparency and integrity amidst turbulent times. As Hut 8 ( NASDAQ:HUT ) navigates the tumultuous waters of the energy crisis and regulatory challenges, resilience and adaptability emerge as crucial survival traits. The closure of the Drumheller site marks a strategic retreat in the face of adversity, but the company remains poised to overcome obstacles and seize opportunities in the evolving cryptocurrency landscape. With a steadfast commitment to innovation and sustainability, Hut 8 charts a course towards a brighter, more resilient future in the world of digital mining.
NASDAQ:HUTLong
by DEXWireNews
USACAD, 4x but not 4x more like four and for and x and exTrends marked Price Targets marked All of these trends are fairly strong on their own but it looks like this wants to head down before up maybe to 1.08? 1.22 in the near term sound reasonable? This chart was requested. I don't pay much attention to this chart so let me know if I'm missing something I'd normally pick up had I been monitoring this more frequently. But, I think I got all the important trends and longer term price targets. again, I was hesitant to draw a line, but I think it better shows the downside potential. I wouldn't follow it, I'd expect it to be incorrect, instead focus should be with the trends and price targets.
by nicktussing77
EURUSD|The probability of breaking the support zoneHello friends, I hope you are doing well, let's go to the popular currency pair EURUSD. In EURUSD, the selling pressure seems to be more, we can understand this from the powerful candles, broken trends. For this reason, short positions have a higher winning percentage. By reaching the supply area (1.1015), we can enter a sell position with confirmation until the price (1.90). In the future, if it can break the demand area, we expect the price of 1.080 to continue falling
Short
by Golden_Star1994
1