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ridethepig | CAD Market Commentary 2020.01.09Interesting price action in USDCAD after another round of soft data from Canada. Poloz has a lot of work to do tonight if BoC are to move as rate markets are materially underpriced, especially on the front end. Expecting a dovish ‘fireside’ with early signs of encouraging demand above 1.30 this morning. Starting to cover shorts after the break through 1.304x has opened a move towards 1.31 and 1.317x, the original entries in the 2020 macro map: USDCAD LMT BUY 1.304x => TP1 1.310x => TP2 1.317x | STP 1.299x The reflation theme which is a bi-product of the dollar devaluation allowed CAD to outperform in the immediate term however now USD is in full control as CAD macro prints have started to turn down. As long as USD remains in first gear we will have room to test the topside again, as there are two sides to the currency pairs, rather than CAD strength in this move we are trading USD weakness. As usual jump into the comments with your charts and questions to open the discussion, best of luck all those trading live and thanks for keeping the support coming with likes!!!
Long
by ridethepig
1
USD vs. CAD (NEW PATTERN)The USD price appreciation building up in the USDCAD pair has not yet unfolded, but when it does it will be a nice long USD trade (or short the CAD trade). Previously we identified a bullish flag on the weekly and monthly chart, but it looks like the flag is shaped a bit differently now that 2019 is behind us. Here are the new technical levels to watch. At the moment price seems to be transitioning from one trap zone to the next trap zone, but the battle lines are now clearly drawn. There will likely be some nice bullish action in this pair by the end of 2020, so don't forget to bookmark it!
Long
by Trader6127
1
Pound under pressure, GDP & dollar There was a lot of talks about Trump Impeachment. Despite the decision of the House of Representatives, the chances of gaining Senate support are extremely low (gaining 2/3 of the vote is almost impossible). So the reluctance of the dollar to fall against this formally negative fundamental background is generally understandable. And if the dollar yesterday felt relatively confident in the foreign exchange market, the British pound continued to be under pressure. The day for the GBP began with failure: retail sales (MoM) November f -0.6%, however, the experts expected an increase + 0.2% (MoM). As a result, this decline formed the longest series of monthly retail sales in the country since 1996. A series of the fundamental negative for the pound continued the Bank of England. The central bank did not lower the rate but made it clear that considering such an option. Lowering the forecast by the Central Bank on UK GDP growth rates in 2020 by 0.1%is not optimism news for pound buyers. So the results of the meeting of the Bank of England are “dovish”, which was against the British currency. The fate is not in the hands of the Bank of England or macroeconomic indicators but in the hands of Brexit. Despite Johnson’s statements on Monday, we continue to believe in the deal and the “soft” Brexit, which means that the pound will certainly grow, with growth rates up to 1000 pips. Accordingly, the lower the pound falls, the greater the growth. Therefore, we continue medium-term purchases of the pound, and today we buy on intraday from 1.30 (the entry point is too good to pass by, plus the Friday before the Christmas holidays - many want to take profits in short pound positions, which will contribute to its growth) Today is unlikely to be calm. Besides the fact that it is necessary to process and take into account the prices the entire array of information that is hitting the financial markets this week, on Friday we are waiting for data on the GDP of the UK and the USA to come out, as well as statistics on retail sales in Canada. We do not expect any excessively strong directional movements, so we will adhere to the tactics of oscillatory trading on the intraday basis As for medium-term positions, there are no changes: we buy the pound, the Japanese yen and gold, we sell the Russian ruble.
Long
by Trade24Fx
ridethepig | CADNOK 2020 Macro Map A good time to map the strategy and flows for CADNOK as we approach year-end. As you will have noticed I am tracking for a major pullback in the cross over the first half in 2020, this is coming from large macro forces at play. Central bank coordination has opened up the opportunity for NOK to outperform CAD. Firstly the reflation theme via USD devaluation is going to help Canada a lot less than the rest as Canada will receive a spillover from the US manufacturing recession. Secondly we need to discuss the impact of Oil across both economies. CAD and NOK are affected by oil with divergencies in their breakevens. For example Canada breakevens are circa $45 compared with Norway at $23 per barrel. Meaning simply Norway has more breathing room for the fall in Oil: The third and final leg to the stool is coming from yield differentials. After the more dovish than expected shift in stance from BoC, the window is open for a cut which has not been fully priced while Norges which was previously the last hawk standing has hit the pause button. I personally see room for another hike from Norges next year which is the leg I am looking to trade here. Best of luck all those in CADNOK, a very good pair to add to your FX portfolio.
Short
by ridethepig
USDCAD | Short-term Buy OpportunityHi, We might get a short-term buy opportunity if you have seen a bullish candlestick pattern inside the light-blue area. Criteria vise there is nothing special so definitely wait for it, criteria: 1. 2x AB=CD 2. The round number 3. The trendline 4. Invisible trendline :) 5. Strong area - previously worked as a support and as a resistance level. 6. As said, wait for bullish Engulfing, Railway Tracks, Morning Star inside the marked area to trigger the trade! Do your own research and please, take a second and support my effort by hitting the "LIKE" button, it is my only FEE from You! Best regards, Vaido
Long
by VaidoVeek
2
USDCAD Market Structure ExhaustionThe USDCAD is displaying 2/3 market structure. There are only 3 ways markets move: uptrend, range and downtrend. These are composed of swings in the case of uptrend and downtrends. The USDCAD has been in an uptrend, composed of higher lows and higher highs. We then began to exhaust as no new higher lows and higher highs were created. We are now in a range. Price exhausted near a resistance/flip zone of 1.3340, however I would prefer to see price test a bit closer. This would be one downfall for this idea. But the market structure is there. We are creating an exhaustion/topping pattern. With a break of 1.3260, we would break below a flip zone. This is what I am watching for. There is a demand zone at 1.3100 that should be a take profit zone. We do have the Bank of Canada this week on Wednesday. Many are expecting Canada to hold interest rates steady at 1.75% but Canada is not immune to the global slowdown. They will eventually cut rates. I must say that perhaps we could get a surprise cut. The rest of the world is cutting rates, and Canada is equal to the US in terms of rates. I do expect a dovish tone, which could see USDCAD test the aforementioned 1.3340 flip zone. Again, we will not be doing anything until the flip zone is broken which would give us the trigger to enter. Until then we remain on the sidelines.
by Uncharted-FX
ridethepig | USDCAD 2020 Macro MapThis chart is for those mapping USDCAD over the coming Quarters; a clean and simple strategy targeting the lows of 1.27xx by mid 2020 before finding somewhat of a bounce back towards the 1.30xx handle by year-end. Main theme behind the flows is coming from dollar devaluation, I would recommend all to follow the Macro Dollar charts I have posted: The reflation theme which is a bi-product of the dollar devaluation will allow CAD to outperform in the immediate term. There are two sides to the currency pairs, rather than CAD strength in this move we are trading USD weakness. A wide range which is already starting to show signs of cracking the downside: Best of luck all those trading USDCAD into year-end with dollar devaluation underway, this is going to be a monster swing with fireworks on both sides.
Short
by ridethepig
4
Buy the rumors sell the news. Real life example AUSSI VS LOONIEAfter last week's elections, relatively strong domestic data and perceptions of stable (or even stimulating) fiscal policies were sufficient to keep the doves in the bay for BOC and I assume loonie was performing well throughout months because this thing was already known by smart players. Most of the position was well placed in the loonie side for months by smart traders and was a " buy the rumors " case for market (hoping for steady monetary policy from the bank and rumors around buying in optimistic of BOC) and now when the actual date central bank had announced which also ended up being steady, no cut, no dovish and as expected! but market just turned opposite for the pair or we can say any pairs which have loonie as counter or base acted just opposite against the loonie and ended up being " sell the news " (even knowing it was steady release, no cut, no dovish now everything has already been priced in, juice sucked up so profit-booking by closing of position creating back new fresh demand in another side and doesn't matter what was released and what only matter was to sell on news). Priced reached in such a level where everyone fears to hold longer and where smart people thought good place to book the profit which creating good demand and is indeed in a demand level where nothing can stop from rising upward rather than falling back deep. Aussie has been doing well lately along with the EURUSD and GBPUSD and has a high potential for trending upward talking about the longer time horizon (which we can evaluate from AUDUSD performance). Oil future seems not well too and if loonie is really done, for now, juice has been sucked up months before then a pullback of this downtrend is what not a surprising thing which we may see in future days.
Long
by Anatta0