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Canada

Overall view of USDCAD - Update of July 15th's weekThe pair has been selling off since June, loosing more than 500 pips. The weaker dollar is due to the fact that the US indices inventories favour a bull run, fuelled by the optimism that Feds will be cutting interest rates this month and the current impasse of the trade wars. Thus, the trading volume is steady, and we are likely to experience more downside movement. Nonetheless, chances of a reversal are increasing : Institutional buyers are increasing at the expense of buying retailers. Possible targets: @1.29000 (+130 pips) and @1.28000 (+220 pips). Advice: Stay bearish and short at any high points while we don't break upside @1.31000 which would create a new consolidation.
Short
by Theperfectionist
NFP, Trump's obsession, Morgan Stanley's recommendationsGetting ready for the NFP, Trump's obsession, recommendations of Morgan Stanley The financial markets are having a torrid week. Financial market participants are concerned about the appearance of a trend that the market currently is following. The concern is about the statistics based on the US labor market outcome, which in the future might provoke the US economic slowdown. Let's try to figure out what we should and should not be expected after the outcome will be published. It seems like nobody wants to undertake an in-depth analysis of the current state of the economy and labor market, a matter of reasonable inference from “how the forecast has been calculated”. The formula is, therefore, as follows: take the simple arithmetic average of the NFP index over the last couple of years, that is all. Such an approach practically guarantees that actual data will be different from forecast data. That in itself carries an opportunity for earnings. NFP report outcome creates adverse expectations. We believe that the 160K figure is too optimistic according to the ADP outcome. Since we are expecting poor forecast data, our trading recommendation is - sell the dollar. Moreover, the markets are concerned about possible US interventions against the dollar in the foreign exchange market. Recall, Trump supports the dollar devaluation idea. Last time the United States came out with interventions on the foreign exchange market was in 2011. Recently, USD to YEN rate forecast has been sharply lowered by Morgan Stanley’s analysts: from 108 to 102 at the end of this year and from 98 to 94 at the end of the next year. Motivation - a sharp decline in profitability differential: the profitability of American assets decreases faster than the profitability of European and Japanese. Recall that it is not the first time we recommend selling USDJPY. As for our other recommendations, we will continue to look for points for sales of the Russian ruble and oil. We are working with gold today with no clear without any preference for oscillator signals. In addition, we recommend paying attention to USDCAD. The fact is that today, statistics on the labor market of Canada will be published. So in the case of a double positive or double negative, the USDCAD may be subjected to strong pressure (ascending or descending). The best option for trading, in this case, is trading on the news. 1-2 minutes before the news releases, we set pending stop orders in both directions (buy and sell) with 30 pips at that time and wait for the news to come out. Almost certainly the movement will be strong and unidirectional. That will lead to the execution of one of the orders and will make it possible to earn quite quickly without any particular risks.
Short
by Trade24Fx
1
USD at strong support level against the CADThe USD is currently sitting at a very strong support level against the CAD. EMA50 is also above EMA200 on the daily and weekly. Keep in mind that, technically, the pair is in a "no trade zone." The Canadian economy is also experiencing a number of acute deteriorations vs. the US economy that could put pressure on bank balance sheets in Canada. Increasing non-performing loans in Canada could lead to currency devaluation. The Bank of Canada's inflation targeting also revolves, at least partially, around currency devaluation (a kind of "beggar thy neighbour").
Long
by Trader6127
Daily Canada S&P/TSX CAD stock market index forecast timing anal27-Jun Price Forecast timing analysis by pretiming algorithm of Supply-Demand strength Investing position about Supply-Demand(S&D) strength: In Falling section of high risk & low profit Supply-Demand(S&D) strength Trend Analysis: In the midst of a downward trend of strong downward momentum price flow marked by temporary rises and strong falls. Today's S&D strength Flow: Supply-Demand(S&D) strength flow appropriate to the current trend. read more: www.pretiming.com D+1 Candlestick Color forecast: RED Candlestick %D+1 Range forecast: 0.0% (HIGH) ~ -0.2% (LOW), -0.1% (CLOSE) %AVG in case of rising: 0.3% (HIGH) ~ -0.3% (LOW), 0.2% (CLOSE) %AVG in case of falling: 0.2% (HIGH) ~ -0.5% (LOW), -0.3% (CLOSE) Price Forecast timing is analyzed based on pretiming algorithm of Supply-Demand(S&D) strength.
TSX:TSXShort
by pretiming
Canada | Recession WatchThe 10 year Canadian yield is now below the 1 year and 3 month yield, which is a good indicator of a potential recession ahead. Rates follow economic growth, so we can interpret yields as a function of the economy. These interest rates also impact the price of money (CAD interest rates). One way to interpret lower interest rates in the Canadian economy is that economic activity is lower and cheap money indicates a discount on loans due to a lack of credit demand. Lack of credit demand could be an issue related to demand itself, access, or credit worthiness. So lower interest rates can quickly impact CAD valuations against other currencies in the FX market. The trend is pretty clear going back to the early 90s; the 10 year provides a kind of ceiling for yields. There is a kind of megaphone pattern as well, which could indicate that rates will go sharply lower in the coming years, with short term rates bottoming out hard and perhaps even going negative.
TVC:CA10YShort
by Trader6127
1
Gov't Bond Yields & Bank StocksFollowing government bond yields can be crucial to understanding the underlying price action of banks stocks. Take this example of Canadian bonds and stocks. We can clearly see how, following a steady expansion in yields of various maturities, a trend break where bonds suddenly appreciated (yields go down when bond prices go up) the results were a change in trend for the bank stock (in this case CIBC). The inversion of the 3 month and 10 month yields resulted in a trend change confirmation on the smaller timeframes. This is not just a coincidence: bank business models are heavily influenced by their central bank regulator.
TVC:CA10YEducation
by Trader6127
The last days of Theresa May, more trade wars, worst week of oilThe previous week was tough for financial markets due to the escalation of the trade war between the USA and China, which, moreover, have taken new forms like US attacks on Chinese technology companies. At the same time, the White House is not planning to stop. The tariff epidemic will spread to other countries, primarily those of them whose currencies are artificially undervalued. Recall that the undervaluing of the national currency provides a powerful competitive advantage in international trade. In general, things rapidly get worse. We noted that this confrontation may become a new reality, in which it is worth getting used to living in now. Another key event was Theresa May’s resignation. The inability to provide Brexit provoked Theresa May's resignation. She will remain in office until June 7, when her successor will change her. Most likely Boris Johnson will be. The pound, as we announced in Friday’s review, has grown due to this news. That only confirms the loyalty of our vision and recommendations. So this week we will continue to look for points for buying of the pound, including the medium-term position. The previous week was the worst for oil for the entire 2019. The reason is the exodus of investors from risky and commodity assets amid fears of a sharp slowdown in the global economy. This scenario was viewed by us as a baseline, and from the very start of the last week we recommended oil sales. So those readers who followed our advice should have made very good money. On Thursday alone, oil lost about 6%. About the upcoming week, we note that its main events, perhaps, will be the announcement of the Bank of Canada decision on the parameters of monetary policy, as well as data on US GDP for the first quarter (revised). For the rest, the trade war will remain in focus. As for today, we are waiting for a thin market and potential spikes in volatility on level ground. So you should trade carefully. Our trading positions for the week did not change much: we will look for points for buying of the euro against the US dollar, sales of oil and the Russian ruble, as well as buying of gold and the Japanese yen. In addition, we begin to buy a pound.
Long
by Trade24Fx