Canada
EURCAD: Shooting Star & Bearish DivergenceEUR rally failed last Friday, so the shooting start candle formed on the daily chart. It's a very clear signal that 1.55 level is rejected. In the same time there's obvious bearish divergence on the daily chart and it's just matter of time when it will play out. Chances are EUR/CAD will drop to retest the horizontal support at 1.535 and the ascending trendline. If price break through them, it could continue down all the way to the strong support at 1.5.
Friday close was bearish...Although Canadian numbers came in VERY weak, oil prevented USDCAD from flying up to the moon and kept it contained. OPEC has agreed to a smaller than expected production boost, estimated 1m combined per day output increase. Technicals are pointing towards a minor correction, whether USDCAD will then continue up remains to be seen. 1.3383 is the latest high wick, although it failed to close above the previous candle.
$bxeLike the look of the EMA ribbon, very aesthetic
Doubled my position at .98, still looking for another bullish drive up.
no SL... letting it ride for now, as I say... scared money don't make money
ST Short USDCADUSDCAD is showing big bearish divergence on the slow stochastic.
Big news coming up with regards to Bank of Canada and interest rates. If they hike, that could be your catalyst for the move lower.
Look for it to start breaking support. Short when it gets close to resistance for best entry.
Looking for 100 maybe +100 pip move from the highs.
The weed bubble is coming?There's some nice price action around the weed markets right now and Harvest One is no exception. The most obvious signal here is the RSI divergence forming right now. The price is settling way below ATH, and it needs some retracement upwards! Let's see if we will have a cannabis craze across the board.
This is once again a low risk trade like the one I'm currently holding in Aurora (Check it out!). This is because of the buy indications on multiple timeframes looking at the indicators.
I put in some conservative levels for the careful trader. A conservative buy would be above the yellow line, with a tight stop according to taste. Fib levels above are targets as usual. This is quite a new stock so the resistance levels are quite clear.
The Ichimoku is just waiting to show some level breaking and support forming above this price. The cloud gives little resistance so after a smaller breakout, it's touch and go! Not financial advice though.
Rising wedge, near resistance...RSI overbroughtUSDCAD has been on a rampage and strongly bullish for some time now. It struggled with 1.3040 after multiple attempts, but since breaking it, it has shot up! As everyone hopefully knows in the FX world, nothing can go up forever...Although the overall trend looks bullish, I would be looking to short this market for a correction down. Potential retest of around 1.30ish
APH - NeutralCanadian weed stocks are in a weird spot right now. Any wiff of news will send them either way. Legalization has been stalled (naturally) by the Government until they can figure out how to properly capitalize on it and shut out most if not all private vendors. Watching closely...
Trade Idea - ENBUpdating my short-term assessment on ENB of last week. I'm targeting ENB to hit the area between the level 1 of the fib extension from the last rally and the 0.618 fib retracement level from this year's highs, after the last retracement rally already gone through the 0.382 level, I think it's time to go for the 0.618. There should be some resistance around 43$CAD though.
Target 45-46$CAD / Stop Loss 39.50$CAD. 4/1 reward-risk ratio. Upside 12%+
S&P TSX VENTURE COMPOSITE INDEX long ideaThis Canadian index is full of precious metals, like gold and silver miners, cannabis stocks and commodities based resource stocks. It has been consolidating for quite some time as you can see... Looks to be breaking out now. Could be a good idea to find some decent picks in this index to go long over the next year or two.
Possible Short in play with the Loonie CADUSDDoes Canada hate its currency? Seems like it, time to short this shitcoin.
Cheers.
"The above references an opinion and is for information purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice."
CADCHF ShortAs we can see from the diagram, a nice Head and Shoulders pattern unfolding on the Daily timeframe on this pair. BoC's hawkishness provided us the spike up today to form the right should and the price was stopped at old broken support that has now become resistance. Moreover, the price is capped on the topside by the 200EMA. We also have the bearish crossover on the MACD.
I expect the price to move down over the coming days.
Big picture USDCAD is still in a corrective wave 4Big picture the Canadian dollar can see continued strength over the next couple of months. With an elevated crude oil price which directly impacts the currency through exports (54% of exports are petroleum related) we can see 1.16 before we turn higher.
Despite issues with Canadian Real Estate USDCAD is still a shortThere is clear and present danger in the Canadian real estate market with Toronto house prices & sales down double digits on a year over year basis. The real estate market on the West Coast has been largely unaffected to date but I suspect its a matter of when as opposed to "if". The point is, when the market drops enough the CB in Canada will have to put the fire out at the mercy of the currency.
For now, Canada exports are 54% petroleum or petroleum-related products and oil still has a little more upward price pressure before the cycle ends! For that reason I expect USDCAD to drop before a large rally possibly next year!
I am not convinced on UCAD....USD CAD looks great on every timeframe except the weekly...Looks like we could be inside of a falling wedge. 1.30 has proven to be strong resistance many times in the past, the weekly close candle looks like a hanging man. Crude oil dropped big on Friday, if we get a bounce in oil, this may drive UCAD down...
SHORT VRX.T - Over extended, multiple gap fills, and bad press.MOVING AVERAGES: 30SMA miles away on the daily and its been previous resistance (for example Feb 27 2018 and March 16 2018) after breaking through on April 12th VRX blasted to the upside.. I am expecting the daily the close in on the 30sma line i've highlighted.
CANDLE STICK: Dumpling top on the daily broke bearish. Also broke the daily higher low today.
RSI: over extended on the daily, and 4 hour at levels that are known to pull back.
GAP FILL: Gapped up on May 8th 2018 $24.46 to $26.14
PRESS: Ex-Valeant, Philidor executives convicted of kickback scheme finance.yahoo.com
I dont think the news really matters that much but just ads the over extended stock that has multiple reasons the come down. I think the price will hit the $24 area. I'm short since yesterday at $28.32 TSX:VRX
Time for action on Aurora!The Bollinger bands are very tight on ACB right now and we have been building a slope for some time now. ACB already tried to break out once but faced high selling volume. I really do believe this will be an easy trade though. I marked out the following Fib levels as targets. Depending on speed, I think we can see 11 USD again soon. The red line is for refill. Below that is absolute stop.
Corus_Entertainment_(TSX:CJR.B)_May_17_2018Corus is a Canadian Media company with interests in the radio, publishing, and television sectors. It was a part of Shaw Communication till 1999 when it was spinned off as a separate company.
Since 2014, CJR.B has been in a state of decline owing to the rise of Netflix and other internet based media networks which has impacted advertising revenue. However, even though Television viewership is shrinking, it will not completely die out. There will always be customers for speciality television shows such as those that Corus Entertainment owns and operates. Radio was long presumed to be dead but has found a niche market; I believe television will find its own market.
Currently, my analysis indicates that a symmetric triangle is developing. Volume is contracting as the price moves towards the peak of the triangle. Depending upon which way CJR.B breaks outs, we may want to buy or short the stock. However, at these prices CJR.B is yielding over 15% dividend. I think there is sufficient support for the stock around $6.00 as evident by the strong volume at that price level. Earnings are also above analyst estimates (the last earnings was).
Based on the probabilities, I would take a gamble at the stock around $6 and hold it till the sector goes strong again. Even though the price may never reach the peak levels of 2014, a 15% dividend is not bad these days. Ofcourse the dividend can be reduced; which any sensible management would do. But in this case, the management seems extremely shareholder friendly with almost firm reassurance that the dividend will not be impacted.
Hydro_One_(TSX:H)_May_09_2018Hydro One is an electricity transmission and distribution utility serving the Canadian province of Ontario. Currently, Hydro One is trading at historic lows since its IPO. The underlying trend is bearish, while the chart pattern is Broadening Bottom. At this point the price can go either way. Currently, the support is being tested at the trendline (Dividend is around 4.4%). If price drops further (below CAD $20, then the probability that the price may go down further increases. However, if price does not drop further within the next few days, this is an excellent entry point as the probability of a price rise after an broadening bottom with an underlying bearish trend is over 50%.
The elections in Ontario (to be held in June) will be a critical factor in determining the mid to long term outlook for the stock. Currently, all parties (political) do not want the price of electricity to go up (the government is a large shareholder of the utility). However, after the elections these poll pledges might disappear as energy prices across all sectors tend to rise (especially during the summer months).
PAT Short-Term Reversal1. Multiple bullish hammers indicating that bulls are winning at the end of the day. Today, bulls really took over with a big move up.
2. The bullish candles are at PAT's lower bollinger band as well.
3. A slow stochastic is turning up from its oversold zone and there is also a MACD crossover
Trade aiming for 1.75 in the next few days.
