Canada
TWO SCENARIOS FOR CADJPYFor long: Looking for breakout candles in blue box and then retest. Then long for mega upside move.
For short: Looking for bearish rejection in blue box. Targeting yellow box
CADJPY Short term sell setupJust broke a very strong support (3 yellow boxes). Short when price pulls back to 82.250 area to target 79.270. Possible a bounce in orange box due to bottom of monthly channel.
What's next for the TSX Composite Index? According to investing.com, the average of 27 analysts polled in April shows year end target forecast of 13550. Weekly RSI is approaching 60, with the upper weekly bollinger band starting to level off. Technically the chart appears to indicate the price trend is now towards the upper side of the trading range and offering a less attractive 'risk-reward' ratio after achieving over 18% return from lows earlier this year. Trading at a PE of 17x forward earnings estimates the index certainly isn't undervalued. However, in comparison to the decreasing global yields in our contemporary world of NIRP, the TSX index remains attractive to the 'buy and hold' investor for it's dividend yield of nearly 3%. Yield hungry investors may continue to bid up the price of the TSX, as it offers a substantial 'risk premium' spread over 10 year government bond yields.
The TSX generally shows a very high correlation to the price of oil (at about 90% on the 20 day average). The index will likely continue to closely track the price movements of WTI going forward.
The latest price drop in WTI shows weakness in a resistance level of near $50. Note latest weakness against upper bollinger band. Also weekly RSI of 64 is the highest in 8 months. The 'round figure' of $50 also likely serves as a kind of 'psychological' level in the mind of traders.
The B.H. rig count has not only stopped falling and flattened out, but actually seems to be rising. A year ago when the rig count stopped falling, WTI dropped sharply to reach new lows.
Canadian investors can own the TSX composite index using the iShares E.T.F. trading under the symbol XIC. American investors can buy the iShares MSCI Canada E.T.F which trades under the symbol EWC, offering access to 85% of the Canadian stock market and a lower yield of 2%.
I'm interested to hear from any interested TSX traders and investors. Let's get a dialog going! Please do share your thoughts and insights!
LONG USDCAD, WATCH PA YELLOW BOX As usual my rough idea how the market may proceed in the next few months
It looks like CRUDEOIL will be between 50-53 this week! FINALLYThe uptrend continues since CRUDE hit 30s. It looks like there is nothing much to keep it lower than 50 this week. Maybe even 53+
Best position would be to go long around 48.50 and TP around 51 but that may be risky. Your call :)
Good luck.
LIKEs and FOLLOWs are appreciated.
Thanks!
#USDCAD ABC Correction In Play To Complete Wave 4!This is a monthly chart so it gives the clear vision on where to put your money and where the market is most likely headed.
We have just successfully completed waves 1,2 & 3 now looking to complete wave 4 around 122-120 before going long to the 160 level.
Trade safe, nothing is guaranteed in this market!
CAD/JPY - Confluences upon confluencesTook a long position on this pair based on the following reasons:
- Ascending W/D trendline has not been broken + LH have been made constantly
- Inverted H+S pattern on daily
However, as this is a rising wedge, this has the potential to fall right through the roof and continue heading south, I have entered slightly early neglecting PA, so be patient and assess the situation.
Trade smart.
EURCAD - Good tradeHighly anticipated higher prices soon. I'm Neutral for now , waiting for more price action to confirm my bias to the upside.
USDCAD LONG POSSIBILITIES THIS WEEKCurrently watching USDCAD during a possible completion of another ABCD pattern . I will not be holding this trade until it reaches D because it could possibly form a double top. I'll be taking profits when it climbs back to B price point 1.318.
USDCAD bull setup again? (:50sma catching bullish again! This could be swinging even higher near the 1.32's.
AUD/CAD Long!!! Another Bounce In ActionAgain, on the daily time frame we see a nice wedge forming here. It appears to me a bit to early for the breakout which is making me lean toward a long position. In addition the 200sma is acting as support to PA. Seems to be a high probability long play here.
As always, risk management is crucial!!!
USDCAD NEUTRALThere are technicals for either outcome to go off from my analysis here on the USDCAD Daily. Given the monthly support rejected price aswell as the top channel rejecting price for a 3rd bounce, gives me an incline a B/O seems pretty natural and potentially to the upside. however with all MA'S crossed over to the downside on all higher TF'S & bearish engulfings formed on resistance a continuation could be @ hand.. whatt do you all think>
$CADJPY Smaller Wolfe Wave Nears Completion at Point 5Hello Traders,
Here is a bearish Wolfe Wave forming. This is a smaller time frame Wolfe than the larger one I have linked below and also highlighted in grey. This could potentially cancel out the larger frame Wolfe. If the larger time frame Wolfe completes at Geo"s Off-Set rule we could have a Wolfe Wave completion at 5" for the smaller Wave. It will be interesting to see how this plays out.
Side Note - The dotted orange line represents an invalidation line, something I picked up from 4xforecaster. In order to know when the projected Wolfe is invalidated, one must take the parallel of the 1-3 and place on the current point 4. If price surpasses this line, then the current Wolfe Wave is invalidated. You can view more cool lessons from 4xforecaster here: www.tradingview.com
Best,
Chartistry
CADJPY: Potential for huge downside in this pairCADJPY has broken under a previous week's low recently after finding massive supply coming in at a previous low volume resistance level, where the bears showed hand. Interestingly enough, we now have 5 closed quarters without a new high, and a close under the quarterly mode, thus confirming a long term downtrend in this pair is viable.
The weekly chart shows us with clarity where the highest activity levels sit. Currently we have 8 week levels where price has transacted at, soon to become 9, thus favoring continuation of the downtrend that kicked off during December 2015.
Once we observe price move under 82.774, it'd be safe to assume we might have a sharp decline, with potential to hit the 75 handle in 9 weeks or less. Confirmation according to the time at mode logic would arrive later, but I'm already in this trade based on the daily chart price action. We have 5 days without a new high after today's close, further validating this thesis. You can go short on any intraday retracement, or at market now, with stops above the 85 mark.
Good luck if taking this trade, if interested in receiving timely trade signals and/or tuition, contact me privately for more information. I'm currently offering a discount for new clients who opt for my trading course.
Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
