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EURCAD: Potential long term shortEURCAD is displaying a potential topping pattern at the top of the recent range, right against a long term mode, the price zone with the most activity in the chart since 1994. The previous reaction to such a strong historical resistance level was seen in the chart I posted before, where I reccomended buying against support for a potentially very large move to the upside (which resulted in a home run trade, with enough returns for a year). This is a terrific opportunity to get short the Euro, and long the Canadian, something which I think is perfectly aligned with the current fundamental landscape. I'll enter with 3 positions, and attempt to ride the downtrend all the way down, booking partial profits on short term selling opportunities, while keeping the core position running, and I'd reccomend you do the same. I favor an ATR based stop loss, against key levels. If interested in getting specific management cues and further add on opportunities, were this trend to reverse as depicted on my quarterly chart, contact me privately. See my profile for details. Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
15
Brent Near-Term OutlookBrent crude has been able to rally on little volume during the U.S. banking holiday and rumors surrounding a potential unified OPEC production cut, issued by the UAE energy minister just as WTI was carving out a 12 year low (and in the middle of the night, local time, no less.) Four days later, there has been no new reports of said production cut proposal, but something interesting has been reported by Charles Kennedy at Oilprice.com - " UAE Offers India Free Oil To Ease Storage Woes ." There is still no reason why OPEC would cut production now given the distress its tactics are already causing in the U.S. shale space. To cave in now, OPEC's squeeze on U.S. shale would be a failure and U.S. shale would be a beneficiary. The same UAE that sparked the latest crude short-squeeze has so much oil, it's bribing India with free oil in order to access a underground Indian storage facility to park abundant reserves. Go figure. Despite OPEC's true unwillingness to cut production, the technical outlook for Brent could prove positive unless risk sentiment is turned off. Currently testing price resistance at $33.81, Brent crude has found support at two key weekly support levels: $27.83 and $31.59. The ADX is showing a lack of momentum in the current move, but +/- DMI could, potentially, have a bullish convergence. The growing tensions between Saudi, Turkey and Syria could reignite risk premium, but many analysts have suggest that any substantial premium is unlikely due to the current supply glut. Even so, resistance at the 50-day EMA coincides with a minor downtrend. However, a break north could test $38.46 to $40.34. If price breaks down, Brent could easily retest $27.83, while more talk of not cutting production would send the international benchmark to $22.98. Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
C
by CommoditiesTrader
Implications of Risk (CAD, WTI and Bonus Chart)CADJPY has been setting up to become a great selling opportunity on a macro-standpoint for the following reasons: I was looking for a drop well-before today's action: twitter.com twitter.com twitter.com twitter.com Fundamentals in a nutshell: CAD is highly correlated with WTI crudeoil, both on a fundamental and technical level. There still is no tangible catalysts to cause a significant rally in oil prices. Perceived catalysts have yet to amount to anything substantial. Still, there is no producer willing to cut production as of yet. Furthermore, the macro outlook for Canada is continuing to look like a poor one. JPY is a proxy for risk, which is signalling further turmoil in risk assets, and the correlation of such assets do not bode well for oil prices. Despite BoJ's meandering into NIRP territory, it has been dubbed a policy error almost as quickly as the Fed's single rate hike in seven years. Japan's Finance of Ministry may call of 10Y auction of bonds for the first time ever on fears of negative rates. Still forecasting the US business cycle ending, with a recession in 2016. As with my previous Russell 2000 posts (correct but early!), small caps are supporting the "FIFO" what it comes to domestic economic weakness. Still see a bear market in US equities. Technicals in a nutshell: Price action rallied hard from an oversold position on two fronts: the rumor of a Saudi-Russian deal to cut production (which was refuted by Saudi twice), and the BoJ's decision to cut rates (which occurred as crude stalled). Clearly, if the production cut rumors amounted to something more than talk, clearly that is bullish. However, we must look at it as what is happening and what may happen (from highest probability) and not what we want. The price action on the daily stalled within a long-term demand zone as both positive price action (+DMI) and ADX continued to slope downward. RSI is well out of oversold territory, which gives traders room to continue selling post-squeeze. The stochastic indicator is giving a great sell-signal on the daily chart. Note: indicators on tradingview do not mirror those on my MT4 but are close. I use a 9,3,3 on stochs. BONUS CHART: USDJPY, essentially risk appetite, is trending lower on the monthly chart (this particular chart I made last month but decided to show my awesome readers!). If global fundamentals and aversion to risk occur as I believe, we could see 110 this year. I expect their will be more yen strength even as the dollar remains supported. As I noted when I was on Dukascopy TV in 2014, the Bank of Japan is running out of "tool," as was unlikely to further increase QE. Moreover, traders would loose their faith in central banks and their ability to prop up markets. We're seeing that now. Please feel free to comment and share charts! And follow me @Lemieux_26 Check my posts out at: bullion.directory www.investing.com www.teachingcurrencytrading.com oilpro.com
by CommoditiesTrader
AUDCAD: Potentially very interesting setupIn the current enviroment, it's nice to add a 'long Canada/short Asia' trade, and this is what this setup is. Currently the trend is up in the weekly but there seems to be a chance for a sharp decline in the daily chart. Risk to reward makes for a great trade if it works, so it's worth it to risk at least 1/2 position on it. Props to @Synapse here for mentioning this pair to me today, I've been waiting to long Canada again, and this seems like a good vehicle for such trade. Good luck if taking it! Cheers, Ivan Labrie.
Short
by IvanLabrie
13
GBPCAD is about to head southWith the Canadian Dollar reaching to an extreme against the USD we are trying to find the bottom for the CAD on all pairs and it is more clear now that we will reach a primary bottom for the CAD very soon. When we look at the GBPCAD long term trend it is clearly a downtrend and the uptrend started around 2013Q1 is a corrective 5-3-5 trend. In wave C, the fifth wave is the extended wave (instead of 3) and out projection for wave 5 is to be 1.618 multiplied by the travelled distance of waves (1) and (3). The red box represent the area we are expecting to see a reversal around. Happy trading :)
Short
by ResonanceTrading
USDCAD Testing 12 year high of $1.40So the disappointing Core Consumer Price Index (MoM) print earlier has sent the USDCAD hurtling towards the psychological price of $1.40 which hasn’t been broken since August 2003! In addition to this, it’s no secret that the tumbling oil price has been a contributory factor to CAD weakness. Due to the strength of the resistance, I would expect a pull back to $1.283 before any further gains. The latest Canadian Consumer Price Index print print can be viewed her, if any of you are looking for something riveting to read... bit.ly
by DarrenWells
2