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Euro / Dollar returns above parityEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔽 USD/JPY 🔽 XAU 🔼 WTI 🔼 Underperforming earnings from tech giants Alphabet (GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT) have sent major stock indices reeling. As Alphabet and Microsoft’s stock prices have dropped 9.14% and 7.72% respectively, signs of a slowed economy are likely to make the Federal Reserve slow down on the rate hikes in December. Meanwhile, the news has also weakened the greenback, allowing EUR/USD to surge above parity and stabilized at 1.0077. Later this afternoon, Mitrade was informed that the European Central Bank is expected to raise rates by 75 basis points to 2.00 %. AUD/USD closed higher at 0.6497 with notable gains. Although the British Parliament is still heavily divided as the new Prime Minister is in office, GBP/USD led its peers by adding over 150 pips to 1.1627. The Bank of Canada only increases its interest rate by 50 basis points - lower than the estimate of 75, USD/CAD fell to a low of 135.13 and recovered to 1.3551. USD/JPY declined further to 146.35. With investors looking forward to a less hawkish Federal Reserve, gold prices rose steadily to $1,664.76 an ounce. Despite an increase in crude oil inventories by 2.59 million barrels, WTI oil futures have increased to $87.91 a barrel.
by Mitrade_official
InvestMate|EUR/CAD Time to fall. Long-term in-depth analysis.💶EUR/CAD Time to fall. Long-term in-depth analysis. 💶The Euro situation does not look very interesting. 💶The market consensus is that economic growth in the euro area will slow down. 💶The situation is saved by the low unemployment rate of 6.6%. I would add that this is the lowest unemployment rate ever recorded. 💶Unfortunately, the situation in the labour market is not helped by rising inflation, the next year-on-year reading of which is due on 31 October, and which could return to 10% or even beat it. 💶The euro is still a cheap currency. This is compounded by relatively low interest rates compared with the USA, Canada, Australia and the UK, where they are sometimes many times higher. 💶The interest rate in the EU is only 1.25%. On 27 October we will find out what the next decision will be, with the market expecting a sharp increase of 75 basis points to 2%. 💶The war in Ukraine and the tense global situation have thrown in their two cents, resulting in the EU having its lowest trade balance in history at €-50.9B this month. Europe is definitely importing more than it is exporting, which is not healthy for the economy. 💶The PMI for industry has also only been falling and falling since January. It has fallen from 58 points to 48.10 currently. tradingeconomics.com 💶Finally, I would also like to draw attention to consumer sentiment, which stands at -27.6. These are once again the lowest levels in the history of the European Union. We will find out how they are for October on 28 October. 💶As we can see, the situation in the European Union does not look colourful, much of this data has already been discounted, but I believe that the market has not discounted the economic impact that such a persistent situation could have on the future of the European Union. Moving across the ocean to Canada. 🍁There, too, economic growth is forecast to be slightly lower than previous readings but we do not see as much divergence as with the euro. tradingeconomics.com 🍁Unemployment remaining low at 5.2%. 🍁Inflation slowly slowing The latest reading on 19 October indicated 6.9% which, compared to the peak of 8.1% recorded in June, offers a breath of optimism. 🍁Interest rates definitely higher than in the EU. At 3.25%. With the next rate hike due on 10 October, the market assumes it will be a 75 basis point hike to 4%. 🍁Trade balance at a high of C$1.52B in August. On 3 November we will find out how much it amounted to in September. Canada is now seeing very strong trade volumes. The highest in a decade. 🍁Manufacturing PMI low of 49.80 points. tradingeconomics.com 🍁The Consumer Confidence Index is falling but neither all-time highs nor a "crisis" state is just low at 48.51 points. tradingeconomics.com 🍁As we can see, Canada's economic situation looks decidedly better than that of the euro area. 🍁Will we see this reflected in the chart of these currencies? 🗠Looking at the chart we see that EUR/CAD has been in a downtrend for almost 2 years now. The trend definitely took a turn for the worse after the outbreak of war in Ukraine. 🗠Since 22 August, an upward correction of 5.53% began on the downtrend. 🗠But over the last month we do not see the strength for a further upward breakout. On 18 October we made a double top formation and immediately recorded a decline. Is this a sufficient signal for a decline? 🗠Looking at the euro compared to other currencies where it is definitely stronger and the rebound was definitely more blunt. Only on the dollar did we not see such a big increase because the dollar has also been on the rise for the last few weeks. 🗠Coming back to EUR/CAD, we are currently at the resistance levels set in April and July this year, these are the 1.34-1.35 levels. We can see that the price is struggling to break through them. 🗠As for taking positions. This seems to be a good time to take positions, either to wait for a retest of the 1.34 levels after the declines and attempt to rebound from below. 🗠Or setting a stop above the recent highs above the 1.36 level, with a target somewhere at the new lows. I am a fan of not setting targets but observing the situation as it unfolds, but in this case the level of 1.25 seems to be the most reasonable in case the falls continue. 🗠I don't want to bore you with indicators, but looking at any of them we can clearly see a downward divergence. 🗠Also the direction is known. Trend is set, stop and target known, I invite you to follow this pair. I am very curious to see what the coming week will bring. 🚀If you appreciate my work and effort put into this post I encourage you to leave a like and give a follow on my profile.🚀
Short
by InvestMate
4
Inflation Canada well I am continuing these charts till we hit my stop loss and go down--- if you look at my indicators you will see inflation is at 2% in canada right now and will continue being 2 percent for a while---I dont think it will do a uturn for a while I think we are stabilized at this point for a while. thanks for reading - if your policitians get this to the right people please inflation isnt real-- it takes a 5 or 10 million trade to make 160 trillion on here lol----
ECONOMICS:CAEDShort
by mooncrest-holdings-ltd
Recession Probability Outcome heres my chart im going be posting and looking at over the next year something that will be on everybodys mind come election and new year-- how to tackle inflation and recession--- probabilities. I am neutral for which I dont have many indicators that will work with this i dont believe so I will have to do some searching on google- for some examples of indicators and write my own with this--- on the second chart I post for this exchange. Recession probabilities. The base or starting line--for this project--will be adjusted and watched with due diligence. We will adjust and continue working with this project as months progress into the future.
FRED:RECPROUSM156NLong
by mooncrest-holdings-ltd
USDCAD Potential for Bearish Momentum | 12th September 2022On the H4, with the price breaking the ascending channel , below the ichimoku cloud , and there’s a possible “double top” pattern, we have a bearish bias that the price may drop to the sell entry at 1.29910, which is in line with the current swing low. If the sell entry is broken, the take profit could be at 1.28938, where the overlap support and 61.8% fibonacci retracement are. Alternatively, the price may rise to the stop loss at 1.30958, where the “neckline” of the “double top” pattern and 50% fibonacci retracement are. Any opinions, news, research, analyses, prices, other information, or links to third-party sites contained on this website are provided on an "as-is" basis, as general market commentary, and do not constitute investment advice. The market commentary has not been prepared in accordance with legal requirements designed to promote the independence of investment research, and it is therefore not subject to any prohibition on dealing ahead of dissemination. Although this commentary is not produced by an independent source, FXCM takes all sufficient steps to eliminate or prevent any conflicts of interest arising out of the production and dissemination of this communication. The employees of FXCM commit to acting in the clients' best interests and represent their views without misleading, deceiving, or otherwise impairing the clients' ability to make informed investment decisions. For more information about the FXCM's internal organizational and administrative arrangements for the prevention of conflicts, please refer to the Firms' Managing Conflicts Policy. Please ensure that you read and understand our Full Disclaimer and Liability provision concerning the foregoing Information, which can be accessed on the website.
Short
by FXCM
Bank of Canada raised its interest rate by 75 bpsEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔽 USD/JPY 🔼 XAU 🔼 WTI 🔽 Coinciding with the greenback’s softening, the Bank of Canada raised its interest rate by 75 basis points to 3.25%. USD/CAD rose to 1.3125, and USD/JPY reached a high at 144.99, then retreated to 143.7. EUR/USD briefly surfaced above the parity before closing at 0.9999, as the market expects a 75 basis points rate hike from the European Central Bank tonight. The Pound/Dollar pair closed higher with minor gains at 1.1525, after sliding to a low of 1.1413, not seen since 1985. Although the Australian trade balance only recorded an $8.733 billion reading, considerably lower than the original estimate of $14.500 billion. The GDP results were not far from the mark, a 3.6% quarterly increase enabled the Aussie to climb to 0.6769 against the US dollar. Gold futures recovered and stabilized at $1,727.8 an ounce as the greenback eased. Slowing global demands saw WTI crude futures returning to pre-Russian invasion levels at $81.94 a barrel. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
USD/CADHello every one i think this pair is a swing trade, with sell position starting now. Last time we hit this level was mid July and that time it just crashed. Now we are on the same level and a very patient trade would be nice and very profitable. Guaranteed if you open a short possition on this pair. On Thursdays I like to trade in the afternoon in my time zone which is pacific timezone until about lunch time of Friday. This particular trade I definitely will be holding for a while. I loaded up alot of funds for this trade and my strategy is to constantly add in new shorts possitions through out the couple weeks I plan to leave this trade open. I literally just opened an 18 lot total trade for this pair and I am up about 1700 USD(15 MINUTES). I just have a very good feeling about this trade. I know forsure I will come out with big profits on this. More bad news is gonna just keep happening in US market. Recession will be in full effect. The announcement of interest rate hikes will most likely make things worst and this coming up next announcement it is expected to go up by 1%. Which means USD is gonna be less valuable. Canada is not there yet. Canadian economy is pretty good right now so yeah trust me guys. My entries were : 1) Shorts 1.31522 - 2.5 Lot 2) Shorts 1.31521 - 2.2 Lot 3) Shorts 1.31466 - 5 Lot 4) Shorts 1.31461 - 5 Lot 5) Shorts 1.3440 - 3.3 Lot Total of 18 Lots so far. Will add more as more profits are won.
Short
by Vtown604
What peak Canadian CPI means for the CAD? Canada may now be over the peak inflation hump. The Canadian Inflation Rate has dipped to 7.6% in July from 8.1% in June. The main culprit for the fall in inflation is the decline in gas prices, which has helped negate food prices, which continue to rise (up by 10% from a year ago). The Bank of Canada (BOC) is evaluating this latest inflation reading as it heads toward its next interest rate decision, less than 3 weeks away, on September 7th. A date which every trader should be aware of head of time. If inflation in Canada has peaked and is in decline, questions arise concerning whether the BOC will let up on its aggressiveness to manufacture a softer landing for the economy. Although, it may be too soon to expect such a change in strategy from the BOC as inflation is still very far away from its mandated 2% target. Looking at the USD/CAD pair on the 4-hour chart, the price has recently moved in between strong support and resistance zones. On chart, this is visualised by the Support Resistance Channels Indicator. Traders can use this indicator to find significant supply and demand zones and trade them accordingly. The green support/ demand zone band with an upper boundary around 1.2940 has catapulted the USD/CAD into a precarious position. The position is precarious because the pair has already rejected at the resistance/ supply zone, with a scary level of stubbornness. Key levels to the upside to watch include the boundaries of this supply zone at 1.2965 and 1.2984. the most immediate levels of support o watch and take not of any breakage is 1.29400 and then 1.2936.
by BlackBull_Markets
Canada the big winner of energy?Energy markets are currently trying to find their footing. The loss of Russian crude to sanctions and the war in Ukraine has caused an impulse wave in the market. My last energy post was about the long term more generally being short on oil. Short-term the disruption will cause elevated prices for a while followed by a turndown. Due to growth in energy use worldwide even if the hydrocarbons share of the market shrinks due to green energy demands for decarbonization LNG still overall gets bigger. Waves of price action will depend on supply changes in both quantity and source through that transition. Waves of consumption and thus demand changes affect Europe negatively due to the current Ukrainian war along with emerging markets' needs for energy increasing for the next few decades till 2040. There is an exception if the G7 decides sanctions should stay on Russia long term. If Europe hits its storage targets for LNG and crude for winter they will have a moment to breathe and look around for a long-term solution to their problem. Canada offers a lot of solutions using LNG and could be one of if not the big beneficiary of the long-term needs of an expanding energy market through 2040. Exports on the coasts for LNG from North America generally could fill the gap left by Russia and meet demand from the emerging economies. From the government of Canada's website. "Eighteen LNG export facilities have been proposed in Canada – 13 in British Columbia, 2 in Quebec, and 3 in Nova Scotia – with a total proposed export capacity of 216 Million tons per annum (mtpa) of LNG (approximately 29 Billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) of natural gas). Since 2011, 24 LNG projects have been issued long-term export licenses. Canada’s only operational LNG terminal (an import terminal) is Canaport LNG’s regasification import terminal located in Saint John, New Brunswick." Fliping this infrastructure to export will be a big job but if done quickly enough it can be used to avoid the use of coal worldwide in emerging economies and fix Europe's problems during the green transition. To be fair building out base load in the form of Nuclear energy is far more preferable with hydro storage and then variable load in the form of solar and wind. In the opinion of this author however better is better for emissions and short-term use of LNG to limit coal consumption is a good idea. Just don't let the Koch think tanks trumpet their own horn too much. The unfortunate use cases of nuclear fuel for reactors to make bombs as North Korea has demonstrated presents a geopolitical tool that would be far too easy to use and thus is limiting the expansion of the technology. Canada seems positioned to take advantage of exporting its resources to the rest of the world filling a gap left by Russia. It's a good opportunity for Canada. Time will tell if they take advantage of it. All the best, see you on the moon.
NYSE:CNQ
by GreatScottTheMoon
AUDcad Short H4 Double TopSeeing that AUDcad seems to be failing to close above recent highs. It appears that AUDcad was losing bullish momentum. COT data reported a weakening AUD and a strengthening CAD. Market came to test dynamic Daily Resistence. The test seems to have apprached the resistance in a rising wedge/flag correction. The top of this inner corrective channel formed a Double Top on the H4/H1 timeframes at its own resistance trendline. This appears to be enough confluence to consider selling AUDcad at this point. Use the discretion of your own entry strategies to confirm any possible entry opportunities that you may find. as for me.
Short
by OmegaDonTony
6