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Canadiandollar

GBP CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE A looming recession has been a key source of Pound weakness and has kept pressure on Sterling despite ongoing BoE hikes. But there is a new threat in focus. It seems the PM’s new fiscal plan, even though putting downside pressure on inflation and lowering growth risks, has drastically increased debt concerns. The disorderly move in Gilt yields were enough to force the BoE’s to step in with a limited (both in time and size) bond buying intervention plan. This has brought some calm to the angst but being limited won’t be enough to fix the fiscal concerns. It was another volatile week for Sterling as a result of the political uncertainty with the resignation of PM Truss. In the week ahead we only have S&P Global PMIs to watch on the data side, but all focus and attention will be on the leadership race to see which 2 or 3 candidates will meet the minimum 100 nominations to put their names in the hat. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any incoming data that surprises meaningfully higher could trigger relief for the GBP. With focus on stagflation, any downside surprises in CPI or factors that decrease inflation pressures are expected to support the GBP and not pressure it. If massive disorderly moves in Gilts forces the BoE to step up as the buyer of last resorts that could trigger GBP upside. If either Johnson or Sunak gets enough nominations that could ease some of the pressure from the Pound. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any material downside surprises in growth data can still trigger short-term pressure. With focus on stagflation, any upside surprises in CPI or factors that increase more inflation pressures are expected to weigh on the GBP and not support it. If we have big disorderly moves in Gilts but the BoE reiterates, they won’t intervene again that could put pressure on GBP. Any outcome that increases the likelihood of a general election should increase the risk premium in the GBP. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamentals for Sterling remain bearish . Recession is around the corner (might be in one already), and the new fiscal plan has failed to provide any assurances for investors (even though we think the negative reaction is not completely warranted). Even though flash PMI data will be important to watch as always, the political situation will likely overshadow the econ data as all eyes will be on the leadership race to see who will win the race as the UK’s next PM. CAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Recent economic data has shown some deterioration for the growth outlook with three consecutive months of contraction in jobs, falling house prices, and a deceleration in both core and headline CPI . The previous jobs data gave the CAD a decent lift with its first jobs gain in four weeks, but at 21K jobs added, the job market is still down 92K jobs in the last four months. However, Governor Macklem gave no intention that the bank is getting close to the end of their hiking cycle. Even though he didn’t specifically say that the market’s expectations for the terminal rate is too low, his concerns about inflation saw STIR markets price in close to 88% probability for another 50bsp this upcoming week. With recent data we think the bank is close to taking a pause, but there is a risk that the bank doubles down this upcoming week and increasing the terminal rate which could provide short-term support for the CAD. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalysts that see upside in Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears, OPEC developments) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. After the bank’s frontloading, there is a very high bar to surprise on the hawkish side for the BoC , but if the bank were to say they think STIR market pricing for the terminal rate is too low that can provide upside for the CAD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Catalysts that trigger downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints, OPEC developments) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. With the bank 100bsp away from terminal rate expectations, and after recent hawkish comments, it won’t take much to surprise dovish, and any signals or comments from the BoC that they’ll pause hikes should be a negative for the CAD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook (recent negative econ data and fall in oil prices) we remain cautious on the currency. Furthermore, with lots of good news priced, and with the BoC close to terminal rate expectations, our preferred way of trading the CAD is lower on clear short-term negative catalysts. The focus for the CAD will be firmly fixed on the BoC policy decision, to see what the bank has to say about their future path for rates. Whether they talk up the terminal rate or confirm suspicions that they could be nearing a pause.
by thunderpips
3
GBP CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE A looming recession has been a key source of Pound weakness and has kept pressure on Sterling despite ongoing BoE hikes. But there is a new threat in focus. It seems the PM’s new fiscal plan, even though putting downside pressure on inflation and lowering growth risks, has drastically increased debt concerns. The disorderly move in Gilt yields were enough to force the BoE’s to step in with a limited (both in time and size) bond buying intervention plan. This has brought some calm to the angst but being limited won’t be enough to fix the fiscal concerns. It was another volatile week for Sterling as a result of the political uncertainty with the resignation of PM Truss. In the week ahead we only have S&P Global PMIs to watch on the data side, but all focus and attention will be on the leadership race to see which 2 or 3 candidates will meet the minimum 100 nominations to put their names in the hat. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any incoming data that surprises meaningfully higher could trigger relief for the GBP. With focus on stagflation, any downside surprises in CPI or factors that decrease inflation pressures are expected to support the GBP and not pressure it. If massive disorderly moves in Gilts forces the BoE to step up as the buyer of last resorts that could trigger GBP upside. If either Johnson or Sunak gets enough nominations that could ease some of the pressure from the Pound. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any material downside surprises in growth data can still trigger short-term pressure. With focus on stagflation, any upside surprises in CPI or factors that increase more inflation pressures are expected to weigh on the GBP and not support it. If we have big disorderly moves in Gilts but the BoE reiterates, they won’t intervene again that could put pressure on GBP. Any outcome that increases the likelihood of a general election should increase the risk premium in the GBP. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamentals for Sterling remain bearish . Recession is around the corner (might be in one already), and the new fiscal plan has failed to provide any assurances for investors (even though we think the negative reaction is not completely warranted). Even though flash PMI data will be important to watch as always, the political situation will likely overshadow the econ data as all eyes will be on the leadership race to see who will win the race as the UK’s next PM. CAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Recent economic data has shown some deterioration for the growth outlook with three consecutive months of contraction in jobs, falling house prices, and a deceleration in both core and headline CPI . The previous jobs data gave the CAD a decent lift with its first jobs gain in four weeks, but at 21K jobs added, the job market is still down 92K jobs in the last four months. However, Governor Macklem gave no intention that the bank is getting close to the end of their hiking cycle. Even though he didn’t specifically say that the market’s expectations for the terminal rate is too low, his concerns about inflation saw STIR markets price in close to 88% probability for another 50bsp this upcoming week. With recent data we think the bank is close to taking a pause, but there is a risk that the bank doubles down this upcoming week and increasing the terminal rate which could provide short-term support for the CAD. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalysts that see upside in Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears, OPEC developments) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. After the bank’s frontloading, there is a very high bar to surprise on the hawkish side for the BoC , but if the bank were to say they think STIR market pricing for the terminal rate is too low that can provide upside for the CAD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Catalysts that trigger downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints, OPEC developments) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. With the bank 100bsp away from terminal rate expectations, and after recent hawkish comments, it won’t take much to surprise dovish, and any signals or comments from the BoC that they’ll pause hikes should be a negative for the CAD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook (recent negative econ data and fall in oil prices) we remain cautious on the currency. Furthermore, with lots of good news priced, and with the BoC close to terminal rate expectations, our preferred way of trading the CAD is lower on clear short-term negative catalysts. The focus for the CAD will be firmly fixed on the BoC policy decision, to see what the bank has to say about their future path for rates. Whether they talk up the terminal rate or confirm suspicions that they could be nearing a pause.
by thunderpips
10
GBP CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSGBP FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE A looming recession has been a key source of Pound weakness and has kept pressure on Sterling despite ongoing BoE hikes. But there is a new threat in focus. It seems the PM’s new fiscal plan, even though putting downside pressure on inflation and lowering growth risks, has drastically increased debt concerns. The disorderly move in Gilt yields were enough to force the BoE’s to step in with a limited (both in time and size) bond buying intervention plan. This has brought some calm to the angst but being limited won’t be enough to fix the fiscal concerns. It was another volatile week for Sterling as a result of the political uncertainty with the resignation of PM Truss. In the week ahead we only have S&P Global PMIs to watch on the data side, but all focus and attention will be on the leadership race to see which 2 or 3 candidates will meet the minimum 100 nominations to put their names in the hat. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any incoming data that surprises meaningfully higher could trigger relief for the GBP. With focus on stagflation, any downside surprises in CPI or factors that decrease inflation pressures are expected to support the GBP and not pressure it. If massive disorderly moves in Gilts forces the BoE to step up as the buyer of last resorts that could trigger GBP upside. If either Johnson or Sunak gets enough nominations that could ease some of the pressure from the Pound. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With recession the base assumption, any material downside surprises in growth data can still trigger short-term pressure. With focus on stagflation, any upside surprises in CPI or factors that increase more inflation pressures are expected to weigh on the GBP and not support it. If we have big disorderly moves in Gilts but the BoE reiterates, they won’t intervene again that could put pressure on GBP. Any outcome that increases the likelihood of a general election should increase the risk premium in the GBP. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamentals for Sterling remain bearish . Recession is around the corner (might be in one already), and the new fiscal plan has failed to provide any assurances for investors (even though we think the negative reaction is not completely warranted). Even though flash PMI data will be important to watch as always, the political situation will likely overshadow the econ data as all eyes will be on the leadership race to see who will win the race as the UK’s next PM. CAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Recent economic data has shown some deterioration for the growth outlook with three consecutive months of contraction in jobs, falling house prices, and a deceleration in both core and headline CPI. The previous jobs data gave the CAD a decent lift with its first jobs gain in four weeks, but at 21K jobs added, the job market is still down 92K jobs in the last four months. However, Governor Macklem gave no intention that the bank is getting close to the end of their hiking cycle. Even though he didn’t specifically say that the market’s expectations for the terminal rate is too low, his concerns about inflation saw STIR markets price in close to 88% probability for another 50bsp this upcoming week. With recent data we think the bank is close to taking a pause, but there is a risk that the bank doubles down this upcoming week and increasing the terminal rate which could provide short-term support for the CAD. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalysts that see upside in Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears, OPEC developments) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. After the bank’s frontloading, there is a very high bar to surprise on the hawkish side for the BoC, but if the bank were to say they think STIR market pricing for the terminal rate is too low that can provide upside for the CAD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Catalysts that trigger downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints, OPEC developments) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. With the bank 100bsp away from terminal rate expectations, and after recent hawkish comments, it won’t take much to surprise dovish, and any signals or comments from the BoC that they’ll pause hikes should be a negative for the CAD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook (recent negative econ data and fall in oil prices) we remain cautious on the currency. Furthermore, with lots of good news priced, and with the BoC close to terminal rate expectations, our preferred way of trading the CAD is lower on clear short-term negative catalysts. The focus for the CAD will be firmly fixed on the BoC policy decision, to see what the bank has to say about their future path for rates. Whether they talk up the terminal rate or confirm suspicions that they could be nearing a pause.
by thunderpips
USDCAD pullback brewing ahead?USDCAD looks like it may be gearing up for a pullback from resistance below 1.39. The rally from mid-August appears to have run out of momentum after testing an inflection zone that has acted as both support and resistance since May 2017. Negative RSI divergence highlights ebbing bullish vigor. A pullback from here sees initial supports at the 1.36 and 1.35 figures. A break below the latter threshold may open the door for a slide to test resistance-turned-support at 1.3224.
Short
by IlyaSpivak
USDCAD Sell signal to the end of the yearThe USDCAD pair has been following for a very long time our 1W trading pattern and as per our trading plan on November 01 2021, it reached our 1.36000 target for 2022 already: As you see the projection couldn't have been better and this approach is a great way for long-term investors to benefit with relatively low risk. Currently however we shift our focus on the medium-term and the 1D time-frame where the pair has a Bearish Divergence according to its 1D RSI. As shown while the price action has been on Higher Highs, the RSI is on Lower Highs. The last two times this Bearish Divergence emerged, the price hit both the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) with ease and even dipped below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level. Our medium-term target before this year is out is the 1D MA50 itself. Traders who want to pursue more risk, can target the 1D MA200, whose fair projection by December should be slightly above the 0.786 Fib. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Short
by TradingShot
2
NZD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSNZD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE The NZD remains a tricky currency to pin down. Fundamentals that should have provided support over recent months haven’t, and the country’s lower terms of trade has made it the biggest loser among the high betas during recent weeks. The RBNZ stuck to the same script in their meeting this past week, disappointing some who were expecting some caution regarding the longevity of the bank’s current hiking cycle. This was initially supportive for the NZD, but as we’ve seen time and time again the NZD was not able to trade convincingly in line with what its fundamentals suggest. As always risk sensitivity needs to be kept in mind for the NZD, and that means US Q3 earnings season is one to be kept on the radar this incoming week. Any surprise positive or negative announcements from the National Congress of the CCP will be important to watch as well. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Positive Covid developments in China (easing restrictions, more fiscal or monetary stimulus, or letting go of the covidzero policy) could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the NZD. Catalyst that triggers recovery in key export commodities (China stimulus, lifting covid restrictions, new infrastructure projects in China) should be supportive for the NZD. Data showing China’s growth outlook is improving or surprise announcement at the CCP congress that Covid-zero will end could provide upside for the NZD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Negative Covid developments in China (increasing restrictions or adding additional ones) could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the NZD. Catalyst that triggers further weakness in key export commodities (additional China restrictions, demand destruction) could be negative for the NZD. Data showing China’s growth outlook is deteriorating or strong affirmation that the covid-zero policy is here to stay could add additional pressure on the NZD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the NZD is neutral for now, but that is largely dependent on what happens to China as the New Zealand economy is also very dependent on trade with China and Australia, and also dependent on whether the RNBZ sticks to their hawkish tone or pivots more dovish in the meetings ahead. Given the currency’s inability to trade in line with any clear fundamental drivers, we’re opting to stay patient with the NZD until further notice. CAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Recent economic data has shown some deterioration for the growth outlook with three consecutive months of contraction in jobs, falling house prices, and a deceleration in both core and headline CPI. The previous jobs data gave the CAD a decent lift with it’s first jobs gain in four weeks, but at 21K jobs added, the job market is still down 92K jobs in the last four months. Just like the week before, Governor Macklem gave no intention that the bank is getting close to the end of their hiking cycle. Even though he didn’t specifically say that the market’s expectations for the terminal rate is too low, his concerns about inflation saw STIR markets price in close to 88% probability for another 50bsp later this month. That makes the CPI data this upcoming week all the more interesting. Even though inflation is still high, both core and headline 3M annualized CPI saw continued moves lower with the AUG print. Another bigger-than-expected miss will be an interesting one for markets to navigate and could provide some short-term opportunities. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalysts that see upside in Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears, OPEC developments) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. After the bank’s frontloading, there is a very high bar to surprise on the hawkish side for the BoC, but if the bank were to say they think STIR market pricing for the terminal rate is too low that can provide upside for the CAD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Catalysts that trigger downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints, OPEC developments) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. With the bank 100bsp away from terminal rate expectations, and after recent hawkish comments, it won’t take much to surprise dovish, and any signals or comments from the BoC that they’ll pause hikes should be a negative for the CAD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook (recent negative econ data and fall in oil prices) we remain cautious on the currency. Furthermore, with lots of good news priced, and with the BoC close to terminal rate expectations, our preferred way of trading the CAD is lower on clear short-term negative catalysts. Biggest focus for the CAD in the week ahead will be the SEP CPI print where a further sign of strong deceleration will be an interesting one to watch, especially after the very recent hawkish BoC comments. Monday’s Business Outlook Survey is also one to watch as the release can cause strong directional flows as well. Apart from that, from a risk sentiment perspective we also need to watch the US Q3 earnings season ramping up this week.
by thunderpips
4
USD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE With headline CPI above 8% and Core CPI seeing acceleration in August, the Fed is under pressure to continue hiking rates and ramping up QT. The bank made its third 75bsp at the Sep meeting and pushed up their 2023 terminal rate projection to 4.6%. The Fed is on a data-dependent (meeting-by-meeting) policy stance, meaning incoming growth, inflation and jobs data remains a key driver for short-term USD volatility where we expect a cyclical reaction with incoming data for both the USD and US10Y (good data expected to be supportive for the USD while bad data is expected to pressure the USD). It was a choppy week for the USD, with entertaining ‘Fed Pivot’ narratives trying to make sense of the price action. In the week ahead, all eyes turns to the week’s main event which is Thursday’s September US CPI report. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely good growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bullish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook continues to weaken, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that increase deep recession fears and triggers strong moves lower in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven flows into the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, the bar is high for hawkish Fed surprises, but any aggressive Fed speak talking up a higher than 5% terminal rate can trigger further USD upside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With the Fed signalling a data dependent policy stance, we expect a cyclical reaction from the USD with incoming US data. Thus, extremely bad growth, inflation or jobs data is expected to trigger short-term bearish reactions in the USD. If the cyclical outlook starts to improve, the USD’s safe haven status still matters. Any incoming catalysts that decrease deep recession fears and triggers strong moves higher in risk assets & bonds can trigger safe haven outflows out of the USD. With a lot priced in for the Fed and the USD, it won’t take much to disappoint on the dovish side. Any big concerns about growth from Fed speakers could trigger outflows. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays hawkish and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk sentiment. The data dependent stance from the Fed means that short-term data surprises can pull the USD either way and would be our preferred way of trading the Dollar right now. In the upcoming week markets will only have eyes for one data point and that will be the US September CPI data released on Thursday. With expectations of a higher Core CPI YY but expectations of a lower Headline CPI YY it seems risky to trade into this event. CAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE Recent economic data has shown some deterioration for the growth outlook with three consecutive months of contraction in jobs, falling house prices, and a deceleration in both core and headline CPI. Friday’s jobs data gave the CAD a decent lift with it’s first jobs gain in four weeks, but at 21K jobs added, that means the job market is still down 92K jobs in the last four months. Apart from the data though, the CAD also got a lift from fairly hawkish BoC Macklem comments, who talked up higher rates despite recent slowing in the data, seeing markets pricing in a higher probability for a 50bsp hike again this month. Oil prices also got a decent lift after the week’s OPEC meeting where a 2mln B/D production cut pushed more focus on the shortterm supply drivers for oil. Even though correlation to oil has been a hit and miss in recent weeks, it provide some additional support for the CAD. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalysts that see upside in Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears, OPEC developments) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. After the bank’s frontloading, there is a very high bar to surprise on the hawkish side for the BoC, but if the bank were to say they think STIR market pricing for the terminal rate is too low that can provide upside for the CAD. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Catalysts that trigger downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints, OPEC developments) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. With the bank just 75bsp away from terminal rate expectations, it won’t take much to surprise on the dovish side, and any signals or comments from the BoC that they’ll pause hikes should be a negative for the CAD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook (recent negative econ data and fall in oil prices) we remain cautious on the currency. Furthermore, with lots of good news priced, and with the BoC close to terminal rate expectations, our preferred way of trading the CAD is lower on clear short-term negative catalysts. Like most currencies the week ahead schedule is extremely light for the CAD, which means US CPI, Q3 Earning Season and further oil developments should be the main driver for the CAD.
by thunderpips
6
GBPCAD: Your Trading Plan 🇬🇧🇨🇦 Hey traders, I spotted a cute bullish flag pattern on GBPCAD pair. After a strong bullish impulse, the market started a correctional movement within its boundaries. To catch the next bullish move, wait for a bullish breakout of the flag's resistance. We need a 4H candle close above that to confirm the breakout. Targets will be 1.536 / 1.5445 If the price breaks the support of the flag, the setup will be invalid. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
6
Canadian Dollar at Risk as USD/CAD Attempts Uptrend ResumptionThe Canadian Dollar may be vulnerable to the US Dollar with USD/CAD attempting to resume the broader uptrend. USD/CAD is attempting to confirm a breakout above the June 26th, 2020 high at 1.3716. Still, prices need to clear the September 2022 high at 1.3833 to open the door to extend gains. Keep a close eye on RSI, negative divergence is present. This is a sign of fading upside momentum which can at times precede a turn lower. Such an outcome could open the door to testing the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA). The latter may reinstate the dominant upside focus. But, the line is currently sitting at 1.3350. With that in mind, be mindful of near-term downside potential before the broader uptrend could resume. FX_IDC:USDCAD
Long
by QM_Dubrovsky
1
CADCHF 1 year Support + Channel Down bottomThe CADCHF pair hit for the second time in 7 days the 1 year Support Zone that has been holding since the August 20 2021 Low. This Zone has provided three rebounds in total. At the same time the price is near the bottom of the Channel Down pattern that started after the June 09 High and its 1D RSI is on a similar bullish divergence such as the previous Lower Low on June 24. The common parameter on all the above rebounds is that they hit at least the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). That is our target on the short-term. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 💸💸💸💸💸💸 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
EURCAD: Very Bullish Outlook 🇪🇺🇨🇦 One more breakout that I spotted today is a bullish violation of a horizontal supply zone and a major falling trend line on EURCAD. Forming a high momentum bullish candle, the market successfully closed above them both. I think that it will trigger a further bullish continuation. Next resistances: 1.358 / 1.368 ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
2
💵U.S.Dollar/Canadian Dollar 💵Analyze (9/29/2022)!!!U.S.Dollar/ Canadian Dollar was able to break the Trend line near the resistance zone, and now we are watching the pullback. I expect U.S.Dollar/Canadian Dollar to go down to at least the targets I specified in my chart. 🔅U.S.Dollar/ Canadian Dollar Analyze ( USDCAD ) Timeframe 2H⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Short
by pejman_zwin
2
NZDCAD Short-term buy and break-out levels------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The NZDCAD pair has been following a very specific trading pattern which we have outlined since June and has given us excellent trades: As you see the key here is a recurring bearish sequence within this Channel Down. As long as the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) is intact as the Resistance, expect Lower Lows within the Channel. Right now, with the 1D RSI breaching the 30.000 oversold barrier and rebounding, we expect at least a short-term rise, as it happened with all 4 other occurrences since March 24 2021. The target is slightly lower than the 1D MA50. If the 1D MA50 breaks, we will consider this a bullish break-out signal targeting the top of the Channel Down and the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot
1
GBPCAD The RSI hasn't been this oversold since 1985!------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please LIKE 👍, SUBSCRIBE ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support me, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. ** ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The GBPCAD pair has been on a strong yearly decline, especially as of late. The 1M (monthly) RSI is currently at 20.87, the lowest it has been since January 1985. That is a good enough reason of its own to buy the pair. There are striking resemblances with the early 2000s fractal. A rebound on the Channel Down pattern's bottom can push the price all the way to its top and the 1M MA50 (blue trend-line). Be ready to offset some risk though to complete a -24.85% decline, if the Channel's bottom breaks. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- You may also TELL ME 🙋‍♀️🙋‍♂️ in the comments section which symbol you want me to analyze next and on which time-frame. The one with the most posts will be published tomorrow! 👏🎁 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇 👇
Long
by TradingShot