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Canadiandollar

Bank of Canada raised its interest rate by 75 bpsEUR/USD 🔼 GBP/USD 🔼 AUD/USD 🔼 USD/CAD 🔽 USD/JPY 🔼 XAU 🔼 WTI 🔽 Coinciding with the greenback’s softening, the Bank of Canada raised its interest rate by 75 basis points to 3.25%. USD/CAD rose to 1.3125, and USD/JPY reached a high at 144.99, then retreated to 143.7. EUR/USD briefly surfaced above the parity before closing at 0.9999, as the market expects a 75 basis points rate hike from the European Central Bank tonight. The Pound/Dollar pair closed higher with minor gains at 1.1525, after sliding to a low of 1.1413, not seen since 1985. Although the Australian trade balance only recorded an $8.733 billion reading, considerably lower than the original estimate of $14.500 billion. The GDP results were not far from the mark, a 3.6% quarterly increase enabled the Aussie to climb to 0.6769 against the US dollar. Gold futures recovered and stabilized at $1,727.8 an ounce as the greenback eased. Slowing global demands saw WTI crude futures returning to pre-Russian invasion levels at $81.94 a barrel. More information on Mitrade website.
by Mitrade_official
Today’s Notable Sentiment ShiftsCAD – The Canadian dollar edged higher on Wednesday. The currency rebounded from its lowest level in nearly eight weeks as investor sentiment picked up and the Bank of Canada raised interest rates to a 14-year high. Commenting on the Bank of Canada’s September meeting, Reuters stated: “The BoC hiked its benchmark rate by three-quarters of a percentage point to 3.25% as expected, and signaled its most aggressive tightening campaign in decades was not yet done as it battles to tame inflation. Money markets expect about 50 basis points of additional tightening by the end of 2022.”
by thunderpips
3
Divergence found on EUR/CAD pair 4-hourFor the last couple of months, the EUR has maintained a weak position against many of its trading partners. This includes the Canadian dollar. The Canadian dollar has benefitted immensely from the high cost of crude, in addition to the Bank of Canada (BoC) moving much faster than the European Central Bank (ECB) to start hiking interest rates in the face of inflationary pressure. Yesterday, the BoC enacted a 75 basis-points rate hike, its fifth post-pandemic hike. Today, the ECB is expected to deliver a 75-basis points rate hike, only its second post pandemic rate hike. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS. From the weekly timeframe, EUR/CAD is primarily on a downtrend. We also see a classic divergence in the Money Flow Index (MFI). The Money Flow Index (MFI) is a technical indicator that measures how money flows into and out of a security over a specified period. The MFI is an indicator that combines momentum and volume with an RSI formula. With a classic divergence, the MFI indicates a reduced volume as price trends downwards. (see related ideas) On the 4-hour time frame, we can see that the EUR/CAD pair has been consolidating in a tight range, between 1.2891 and 1.3242. If we eye the pair’s movement within this range, it contrasts with the weekly trend. In fact, the EUR/CAD pair is up 1.8% since the beginning of the consolation period starting august 24. If we apply an RSI on the chart, we might like to note that the recent bullish push is fast approaching the overbought bottom zone just above 1.3160. If the price level can break above 1.13178, you might expect an ever-growing resistance to upside all the way up to 1.3242.
by BlackBull_Markets
💵British Pound/Canadian Dollar 💵 Analyze!!!British Pound/Canadian Dollar is running in the Heavy Support zone and near the lower line of descending channel. I expect the British Pound/Canadian Dollar to go up to the middle line of the descending channel. It should be noted that this growth will be temporary. 🔅British Pound/Canadian Dollar (GBPCAD) Timeframe 4H⏰. Do not forget to put Stop loss for your positions (For every position you want to open). Please follow your strategy, this is just my idea, and I will be glad to see your ideas in this post. Please do not forget the ✅' like '✅ button 🙏😊 & Share it with your friends; thanks, and Trade safe.
Long
by pejman_zwin
10
CAD CHF - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSCAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE The CAD has enjoyed far more upside in the past few weeks than we anticipated. We’ve been cautious on the currency given Canada’s dependency on the US (>70% of exports) where the clear signs of a faster than expected slowdown and possible recession should deteriorate the growth outlook for Canada. Apart from that, the risks to the Canadian housing market can negatively impact consumer spending as interest rates rise higher at aggressive speed. Potentially damaging the wealth effect created by the rapid rise in house prices since covid. However, despite the risks to the economy and the outlook, markets still price in a strangely favourable growth environment for Canada, also supported by a big push higher in terms of trade due to the rise in commodity prices. Furthermore, despite clear warning signals, the BoC has chosen to ignore the negatives and has stayed very hawkish, hiking 1.0% in July. The market’s reaction after the 1.0% was quite telling though, with the CAD pushing lower afterwards. This suggests that those players that were long could’ve used the hike as a spot to take profit, or it could be the market pricing in a possible pause for the BoC in the months ahead because hiking so aggressive now means reaching a level to pause their cycle much faster. Either way, we remain cautious on the CAD and favour short-term catalysts that provide us with shorting opportunities. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Catalysts that see further upside in Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. The correlation has been hit and miss in recent weeks though. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. Even though lots of tightening has been priced for the BoC, any overly hawkish comments from the BoC or big upside surprises in econ data could trigger short-term upside, but with a 100bsp providing no upside, risks are titled to the downside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. With a lot of tightening priced into STIRs, and a 100bsp hike providing no support for the CAD, we think risks are skewed lower, and any big downside surprises in econ data could offer decent shorting opportunities for the CAD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook due to the slowdown in the US, as well as rising risks to the consumer and the housing market, and potential negative impact for commodities like oil, we remain cautious on the currency (even though it’s moved much higher than we anticipated from the start of the year). With a lot of good news priced in, our preferred way of trading the CAD is lower on clear short-term negative catalysts. CHF FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BULLISH BASELINE The CHF has been supported in recent months as STIR markets have steadily priced in higher interest rates for Switzerland, as well the SNB’s reluctance to intervene in the currency markets to try and weaken the CHF. At their June meeting, the SNB took a very aggressive policy step by hiking rates with 50bsp and removing their previous classification that the CHF is ‘highly valued’. Unlike other central banks, the SNB has chosen to try and tackle inflation before it runs rampant by hiking rates aggressively. Their hike in June was the first hike since 2007, and if the bank follows through with a hike in September it will mean Switzerland will have positive interest rates for the first time in almost a decade. There is scope for further CHF upside in the months ahead with 4 supporting drivers. SNB’s hawkish tilt, the bank’s acceptance of a stronger CHF with less intervention, negative underlying risk sentiment driven by the global cyclical slowdown, rising inflation . The SNB did note that they are willing to be active in the foreign exchange market to ensure appropriate monetary conditions which means too much CHF strength could get the wrong attention from the bank. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Any incoming data (especially CPI on Thursday) or SNB comments that causes markets to price in even more aggressive policy from the bank could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CHF. The more aggressive markets think the ECB will be with incoming hikes, the more aggressive they will be for the SNB. Thus, data that trigger hawkish ECB expectations could also be supportive for the CHF. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES The SNB has not been as active in trying to devalue the CHF through sight deposits as they have been in recent years. With the bank now on a hiking cycle, any drastic appreciation could spark some intervention and would be a bearish catalyst. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CHF. Further lower repricing of ECB hikes could trigger downside in the CHF as well, and the biggest dovish risk for the currency is a big surprise miss on any incoming CPI data. BIGGER PICTURE The SNB surprised with a 50bsp hike and signalled, that unlike other central banks, they will not get behind the curve. Apart from a hawkish central bank , we also have the economy on a steady footing, as well as less risk of intervention as SNB’s Jordan said they no longer see the CHF as highly valued (there is of course risk that they could intervene if the CHF appreciates too much too fast). This means the bias for the CHF is bullish and we’re looking for dips as CHF for buying opportunities.
by thunderpips
1
CADCHF Starting a rally to 0.78000The CADCHF pair has been trading within a very long-term Channel Up since the July 31 2020 Low. Our most recent idea back in May was focused around the incredible sell opportunity that we were handed when the price hit the top (Higher Highs trend-line) of that Channel Up: As you see the strategy was successful and the pattern played out exactly as expected. The price made a new Higher Low on August 15 and rebounded. Now it is back above both the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) and the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), indicating that this is the start of the new rally to a long-term Higher High. This notion is further strengthened by the fact that the 1D RSI and MACD indicators between June - August 2022 and July - September 2021 are identical. Our first target is the previous Higher High and now Resistance of 0.78000. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
USDCAD Optimal Sell opportunity for September.The USDCAD pair has been trading within a Channel Up pattern since September 2021. This 1 year of steady growth has given us a very clear trading outlook for buy-low sell-high set-ups. It is how we got an almost perfect buy on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) on our last update more than a month ago: The price is now again near the Higher Highs (top) trend-line of the Channel Up, having rebounded 4 days ago on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). This is a prime candidate for a sell, which depending on your trading horizon can target the 1D MA50 (short-term) and the 1D MA200 (medium-term). There is also an inner Higher Lows Zone (green) involved below the 1D MA200 as a Support. Keep an eye on the 1D MACD crosses for entry timing. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short
by TradingShot
2
EURCAD: Time to Fall?! 🇪🇺🇨🇦 Hey traders, Update for EURCAD pair. As you remember, we spotted earlier a confirmed breakout of a major daily structure support. Analyzing the reaction of the price to the broken structure, I spotted a confirmed bearish breakout of a rising wedge on 1H time frame. I believe it may trigger a bearish continuation. Goals: 1.296 / 1.2922 ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Short
by VasilyTrader
3
NZDCAD 1D MA50 is the key. Sell below, buy above.The NZDCAD pair has offered us an excellent pattern for a sell high/ buy low plan on our previous analysis more than two months ago: As you see, we were successful on the sell exactly on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) rejection and the buy on the Lower Lows trend-line of both the Megaphone and Channel Down patterns. Right now there is a conflict as to where we could be in relation to the prior formations. This may be a quick accumulation below the 1D MA50 similar to July 30 2021 (green circle) or a failure below the 1D MA50 similar to April 15 2022. The 1D MA50 can give the solution to this. As long as 1D candles close below it, the action is a sell targeting first the 0.79100 Support and the 1.5 Fibonacci extension (0.7745) as part of a new Lower Low formation. A closing above the 1D MA50 though, should be taken as a bullish signal, targeting the 0.8250 Resistance and potentially the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
1
GBPCAD: Important Key Level Ahead 🇬🇧🇨🇦 Here on GBPCAD we have a perfect example of the importance of higher time frame analysis: The pair broke and closed below a key daily structure support this week. Even though, it is a strong bearish clue, I spotted a key monthly support lying slightly below the broken area. Watching how the price reacted to that level in the past, I would suggest patiently waiting for now. If the price breaks the underlined green level and closes below that on a monthly, then a further decline will be expected. And while the price remains above that, I will expect a pullback! Be very careful! ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
7
EUR CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSEUR FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: WEAK BEARISH BASELINE In recent weeks, the persistently high inflation has seen the ECB take a more hawkish turn with the bank hiking rates by 50bsp at their July meeting. Additional pressure on inflation from gas supply shortages and Rhine River levels in Germany means the ECB will be forced to continue hiking rates. But the bank quelled any hawkish excitement at their July meeting by explaining they are frontloading hikes and not signalling a higher terminal rate with their bigger than expected July hike. The bank also failed to ease spread fragmentation concerns with their new Transmission Protection Instrument (TPI) as the eligibility criteria means countries like Italy and Spain that will need the support the most might have a tough time qualifying. Combined with political concerns and additional inflation pressures, further spread widening looks likely for now. Right now, even though policy and spreads are important, the main story and driver for the EUR is the economic outlook. Recent growth data continues to surprise to the downside at a rapid pace and further stoking recession fears for the Eurozone. Even though the bias remains lower, a lot of negatives have been priced in from a tactical point of view so worth keeping that in mind. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES De-escalation or cease fire in Ukraine would open up a lot of EUR upside. Also keep Italian politics in mind where successful attempts to avoid a snap election could ease spread widening & support the EUR. Stagflation risks remains high and recent data has invigorated recession fears, but with lots of bad news priced any materially better-than-expected growth data could spark some relief. Spread fragmentation remains a concern, especially with Italian politics and the ECB’s failed attempt to reassure markets. Any TPI comments that convinces markets it can solve fragmentation issues should be supportive for the EUR. Energy supply is also in focus, which means watching gas flows from Russia. If Russia increases gas flows to more regular levels it should ease some supply concerns and see EUR upside. Rhine river concerns are one to watch, any good news on water levels and resumption of normal transport could be a bullish catalyst for the EUR. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES Any escalation in the Ukraine war that risks including NATO would be big negative risks. Also keep Italian politics in mind, where any failed attempts to avoid a snap election should add further pressure on the EUR. Recent data has invigorated recession fears. Even though lots of bad news is priced, any materially worse-than-expected growth data could spark further downside some relief. Spread fragmentation remains in focus, and if the ECB fails to act when we see big jolts higher in the BTP/ Bund spread, or if any TPI comment further concern markets about its effectiveness, it could trigger bearish reactions in the EUR. Energy supply is also in focus, which means watching gas flows from Russia. If Russia decreases gas flows even further, it should increase supply concerns and see EUR downside. Rhine river concerns are one to watch, any bad news on water levels and continued breakdown in transportation could be a bearish catalyst for the EUR. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook remains bearish with recent leading indicators pointing to a much faster economic slowdown than markets had previously expected. The current bearish drivers (geopolitics, stagflation, spread fragmentation, energy supply concerns) far outweigh the positives from a hawkish ECB. Recession risks have opened up a narrative change for the EUR which have seen markets adjust forecasts to reflect higher recession probabilities that continues to weigh on the EUR. With lots of bad news priced in there is risks in chasing the EUR lower, but the fundamental outlook remains bleak. CAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE The CAD has enjoyed far more upside in the past few weeks than we anticipated. We’ve been cautious on the currency given Canada’s dependency on the US (>70% of exports) where the clear signs of a faster than expected slowdown and possible recession should deteriorate the growth outlook for Canada. Apart from that, the risks to the Canadian housing market can negatively impact consumer spending as interest rates rise higher at aggressive speed. Potentially damaging the wealth effect created by the rapid rise in house prices since covid. However, despite the risks to the economy and the outlook, markets still price in a very favourable growth environment for Canada, also supported by a big push higher in terms of trade due to the rise in commodity prices. Furthermore, despite clear warning signals, the BoC has chosen to ignore the negatives and has stayed surprisingly hawkish, hiking 1.0% in July. The market’s reaction after the 1.0% was quite telling though, with the CAD pushing lower afterwards. This suggests that those players that were long could’ve used the hike as a spot to take profit, or it could be the market pricing in a possible pause for the BoC in the months ahead because hiking so aggressive now means reaching a level to pause their cycle much faster. Either way, we remain cautious on the CAD and favour short-term catalysts that provide us with shorting opportunities. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Catalysts that see further upside in Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. The correlation has been hit and miss in recent weeks though. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. Even though lots of tightening has been priced for the BoC, any overly hawkish comments from the BoC or big upside surprises in econ data could trigger short-term upside, but with a 100bsp providing no upside, risks are titled to the downside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. With a lot of tightening priced into STIRs, and a 100bsp hike providing no support for the CAD, we think risks are skewed lower, and any big downside surprises in econ data could offer decent shorting opportunities for the CAD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook due to the slowdown in the US, as well as rising risks to the consumer and the housing market, and potential negative impact for commodities like oil, we remain cautious on the currency (even though it’s moved much higher than we anticipated from the start of the year). With a lot of good news priced in, our preferred way of trading the CAD is lower on clear short-term negative catalysts.
by thunderpips