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Canadiandollar

CADJPY going lower for the next 2 monthsThe CADJPY pair has broken below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) on July 29 and has stayed below it since then, being unable to made a break-out and return to the bullish trend of the past year. The longer it fails to do so, the more selling accumulation we will see. In fact both in terms of RSI and MACD, this resembles the sequence of June - September 2021, where the price again fell below the 1D MA50 and being unable to recover it, it made consistent Lower Lows. Based on the RSI Lower Highs and MACD Cross symmetries, it appears that, relative to the 2021 pattern, we are still near the start of this bearish move. The target is the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) - 1W MA50 (red trend-line) cluster, which has been the pair's long-term Support Zone since November 2020. On the other hand, a candle close above the 1D MA50 can provide a short-term rise towards the Higher Highs trend-line where an even more comfortable sell position can be taken. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Short
by TradingShot
3
AUDCAD Important 1D MA200 test. Low risk trades around it.The AUDCAD pair has been on a strong rise since the July 13 Low on the 1 year Lower Lows zone. That was a buy signal that we posted exactly a month ago: The rebound has now reached the critical 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), which has been the Resistance in the past 3 months. The last Lower Low on January 28 2022, had a rally that did break above the 1D MA200 and only stopped (and got rejected) on the 1W MA300 (red trend-line). With the 1W RSI being on a rebound following its contact with its long-term Buy Zone, this is quite likely to happen again. As a result, a low risk trading approach right now is to buy only if we close above the 1D MA200 and target just before the price hits the 1W MA300. Until the break-out happens, we can take a short-term sell, targeting the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
EURCAD Trade with break-outsThe EURCAD pair has been trading within a long-term Channel Down since the September 20 2021 High. Right now it is consolidating after the July 13 Low, being below the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since June 28. Also below the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level, this calls for extended selling to new Lower Lows as it happened two times before within the Channel Down. However a break above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line), should initiate a short-term push to the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line), as it happened on February 03. Similarly, a candle close above the 1D MA200, should signal a complete long-term trend shift from bearish to bullish. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
TSX another low incoming BOC meeting sept 7th We are just about half way thru earnings season for the TSX, with the next BOC meeting in September 7th and another hike of minimum 50bps is already guaranteed I think it opens up a great period for the TSX to make a new low. Earnings have been better than expected for a lot of the bigger companies in all sectors from industrials, utilities, staples and of course energy but I think that is mostly priced in by now and even though we had a nice rally here off the June low it was over due after all markets never go down in a straight line. I am looking at further weakness in the energy sector with WTI looking overdue for a move to 70's . I am eyeing the monthly calls with a sept 16th expiry. I am looking at shorting XIU for tsx 60 and XEG for the energy etf and also single names such has Telus / Bell / Canopy / Superior
TSX:TSXShort
by AthenaCapital
GBPCAD preparing a strong rally to the 1D MA200The GBPCAD pair broke above the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) this week for the first time since February 24 and is consolidating. This is the first sign that the trend might be changing from long-term bearish to bullish. This is evident on the 1D RSI which has been on Higher Lows for months. The very same pattern was last seen in Q3/ Q4 2021. After the price broke above the 1D MA50 on November 26 2021 and got rejected, it posted an end-pattern rally to the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level above the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). As a result we are bullish long-term on this pair, targeting at least the 1D MA200. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Please like, subscribe and share your ideas and charts with the community! --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Long
by TradingShot
1
USDCAD analysis: Will bears step up?USD/CAD fundamental analysis A tight labour market with unemployment at historic lows that continues to boost consumption, support from interest rates (with a very hawkish Bank of Canada), and, finally, the persistently high energy prices of oil and gas, which act as a tailwind for the Canadian economy, all contribute to the Canadian dollar’s solid fundamentals. The Bank of Canada surprised markets by raising its benchmark rate by a full percentage point in July ( CAINTR ), signaling further tightening to control inflation. As a result, the Fed-BoC monetary policy divergences have narrowed significantly, as evidenced by the short-term (2-year) rate differential between US and Canadian Treasuries, which is now very close to parity (only 9 basis points). A more hawkish Fed is clearly a risk factor, but the Canadian dollar appears to be better protected now thanks to an equally hawkish BoC. Annual inflation in Canada ( CAIRYY ) reached a new 39-year high in June (8.1 percent year on year), but fell short of market expectations (8.4 percent), while producer inflation ( CAPPIYY ) fell for the third month in a row. In contrast to the United States, which unexpectedly entered a technical recession in the second quarter of the year, the Canadian economy grew by 1.1% in Q2, according to preliminary estimates, with broad-based expansion in 14 of 20 economic sectors. Regarding the growth outlook, the global and US economic slowdown is starting to weigh on the Canadian economy. In July, the S&P Global Canada Manufacturing PMI fell to 52.5 from 54.6, marking the sector’s slowest growth since June 2020. The Canadian dollar has historically weakened in times of global economic slowdown, but this time appears to be holding up well also thanks to the support of WTI ( OIL_CRUDE )and natural gas sticky-high prices. OPEC+ has announced one of the smallest production increases (100,000 b/d since September) in its history, which is equal to 1/1000 of the world’s demand. This means that the crude oil market will continue to be very tight in the coming months and that oil price will remain well sustained, despite the demand of large oil consumers is expected to slowdown. This may continue to represent a tailwind for the Loonie's strength. USD/CAD technical analysis Technically, USD/CAD ) has been trading in a tight, choppy range between 1.278 and 1.294 for the past three weeks. Despite the fact that the USD/CAD ascending channel has been in place for more than a year now, indicating that the major trend still remains bullish, the short-term momentum is gradually shifting in favour of the Canadian dollar. The RSI has been below 50 since July 18, while the MACD fell below the zero line. In the short term, the 1.278 support level (61.8 percent Fibonacci retracement of the USD/CAD rally in June/July) represents an important test. If USD/CAD breaks down here and then at the 200-day moving average at 1,273, it could fall to 1.266 (78.6 percent Fibonacci retracement). Alternately, 1.295 (50 percent Fibonacci retracement) could act as a potential resistance test. A breakout to the upside would pave the way for a spike to 1.305 (23.6% Fibonacci retracement) and then 1.322 yearly highs. However, in order to regain 1.32 levels, a combination of Fed hawkish and BoC dovish shifts as well as indications of a significant slowdown in oil demand will be required. Analysis written by Piero Cingari, forex and commodity analyst at Capital.com
by Capitalcom
NZDCAD Testing the 1D MA50 and following exactly our planThe NZDCAD pair couldn't have traded better lately as it has been following exactly the trading plan we posted on June 17: As you see after a rebound to the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) and rejection, the pair made a Lower Low exactly at the bottom of both the Bearish Megaphone and Channel Down patterns, which is where we advised for a buy. Since then has been slowly rising for the past 2 weeks and is now again testing the 1D MA50. A break above, justifies our expectation that all this price action since March has a mirror pattern of March - July 2021. The target is at least the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line). On the other hand, if the price gets rejected on the 1D MA50, be ready to take an opposite position and sell targeting the 2.0 Fibonacci extension, which is what took place on the December 30 2021 rejection. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot
NZDCAD: Classic Bullish Reversal 🇳🇿🇨🇦 So it turned out that NZDCAD formed an inverted head & shoulders pattern on a daily. The price has easily broken and closed above its neckline. I believe that it will initiate a strong bullish movement. The initial target will be based on a falling trend line. The second target is horizontal structure based - 0.8168. ❤️If you have any questions, please, ask me in the comment section. Please, support my work with like, thank you!❤️
Long
by VasilyTrader
3
USD CAD - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSUSD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BULLISH BASELINE Hawkish Fed policy remains a key driver for Dollar strength. With headline inflation >9%, the Fed has been pressured to tighten policy aggressively, hiking rates by 75bsp at their June meeting, and continuing with Quantitative Tightening. However, as a result of increasing fears of a growth slowdown (as evidenced by recent econ data), STIR markets have repriced lower, and now expects a terminal rate of 3.5% (versus >4% before the June FOMC meeting). Even though lower STIR pricing should be negative for the USD, the growth concerns has sparked further risk off concerns and have seen safe haven flows into the USD. The USD is usually inversely correlated to the global economy and trade, appreciating when growth & inflation slows and depreciates when growth & inflation accelerates. Further expectations of a cyclical slowdown and continued tight monetary policy expectations has seen investors shun risk assets and even bonds (usually considered a safe haven), and the USD has been a key benefactor of the rush to safety in recent weeks. The current high inflation has meant that bonds have not been sought as a safe haven with a strong stock-to-bond correlation, and this has caused big bond outflows. With bonds not fulfilling its usual save haven role the USD has been the haven of choice. The bias remains bullish , but with stretched tactical and CFTC positioning we don’t want to chase the USD higher right now. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As aggressive Fed policy has been supporting the USD, any incoming data ( S&P Flash PMI this week) that sparks further aggressive hike expectations, or comments from FOMC members that signals even more aggressive policy could trigger bullish reactions in the USD. As the cyclical outlook for the global economy is very bleak, and the USD is considered a safe haven, it means incoming data that exacerbates fears of recession and triggers a big rush to safety could trigger bullish USD reactions. Further outflows in US bonds means more USD safe haven appeal. So, watching key triggers for further upside in bond yields like rising commodity prices, rising inflation expectations and upside surprises in inflation data could also trigger further USD bullish reactions. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES The USD has been reacting as a safe haven with recent US data, but the worse growth data gets, the higher likelihood of a ‘Fed Put’ in the months ahead. Thus, extremely bad growth data could trigger bearish reactions in the USD. Tactically the USD is trading at fresh cycle highs, and aggregate CFTC positioning is close to prior highs which acted as local tops. Thus, stretched positioning could make the USD vulnerable to mean reversion in the short-term, but finding strong enough bearish catalysts has been tricky recently. With a lot already priced for the Fed, it won’t take much for them to disappoint markets on the dovish side. Any FOMC comments that suggests more concern about the economy than inflation could trigger bearish reactions in the USD, but with inflation so high any dovish pivots seem unlikely for now. BIGGER PICTURE The fundamental outlook for the USD remains bullish as long as the Fed stays aggressive and cyclical concerns put pressure on risk assets. We do also want to be mindful that lots has been priced for the USD, and as growth deteriorates, it could start to weigh on the USD if markets start pricing in a ‘Fed Put’, but based on where inflation is sitting any pivot seems still a while away and as the safe haven of choice any further recession focused downside in risk assets will likely continue to prove supportive for the USD. In the short-term though, with positioning looking stretched, we prefer much deeper pullbacks for new med-term USD longs and would look for short-term catalysts that offer shorter bearish sentiment trades against the current strong bull trend. CAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE The CAD has enjoyed far more upside in the past few weeks than we anticipated. We’ve been cautious on the currency given Canada’s dependency on the US (>70% of exports) where the clear signs of a faster than expected slowdown and possible recession should deteriorate the growth outlook for Canada. Apart from that, the risks to the Canadian housing market can negatively impact consumer spending as interest rates rise higher at aggressive speed. Potentially damaging the wealth effect created by the rapid rise in house prices since covid. However, despite the risks to the economy and the outlook, markets still price in a very favourable growth environment for Canada, also supported by a big push higher in terms of trade due to the rise in commodity prices. Furthermore, despite clear warning signals, the BoC has chosen to ignore the negatives and has stayed surprisingly hawkish, hiking 1.0% in July. The market’s reaction after the 1.0% was quite telling though, with the CAD pushing lower aggressively afterwards. This suggests that those players that were long the CAD took the hike as a good reason to take profit at the highs, or it could be the market pricing in a possible pause for the BoC in the months ahead because hiking so aggressive now means reaching a level to pause their cycle much faster. Either way, we remain cautious on the CAD and favour short-term catalysts that provide us with shorting opportunities. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Catalysts that see further upside in Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. The correlation has been hit and miss in recent weeks though. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. Even though lots of tightening has been priced for the BoC , any overly hawkish comments from the BoC this week could trigger some short-term upside, but with a 75bsp hike already priced the risk is more titled to the downside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. With a lot of tightening priced into STIRs, and a 100bsp hike providing no support for the CAD, we think risks are skewed lower, and any big downside surprises in CPI this week could offer decent shorting opportunities for the CAD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook due to the slowdown in the US, as well as rising risks to the consumer and the housing market, and potential negative impact for commodities like oil , we remain cautious on the currency (even though it’s moved much higher than we anticipated). With a lot of good news priced in, our preferred way of trading the CAD is lower on clear short-term negative catalysts.
by thunderpips
2
CAD JPY - FUNDAMENTAL DRIVERSCAD FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: NEUTRAL BASELINE The CAD has enjoyed far more upside in the past few weeks than we anticipated. We’ve been cautious on the currency given Canada’s dependency on the US (>70% of exports) where the clear signs of a faster than expected slowdown and possible recession should deteriorate the growth outlook for Canada. Apart from that, the risks to the Canadian housing market can negatively impact consumer spending as interest rates rise higher at aggressive speed. Potentially damaging the wealth effect created by the rapid rise in house prices since covid. However, despite the risks to the economy and the outlook, markets still price in a very favourable growth environment for Canada, also supported by a big push higher in terms of trade due to the rise in commodity prices. Furthermore, despite clear warning signals, the BoC has chosen to ignore the negatives and has stayed surprisingly hawkish, hiking 1.0% in July. The market’s reaction after the 1.0% was quite telling though, with the CAD pushing lower aggressively afterwards. This suggests that those players that were long the CAD took the hike as a good reason to take profit at the highs, or it could be the market pricing in a possible pause for the BoC in the months ahead because hiking so aggressive now means reaching a level to pause their cycle much faster. Either way, we remain cautious on the CAD and favour short-term catalysts that provide us with shorting opportunities. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Catalysts that see further upside in Oil (deteriorating supply outlook, ease in demand fears) could trigger bullish CAD reactions. The correlation has been hit and miss in recent weeks though. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk on sentiment could trigger bullish reactions in the CAD. Even though lots of tightening has been priced for the BoC, any overly hawkish comments from the BoC this week could trigger some short-term upside, but with a 75bsp hike already priced the risk is more titled to the downside. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES As an oil exporter, oil prices are important for CAD. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage, less supply constraints) could be a negative catalyst for the CAD as well. As a risk sensitive currency, and catalyst that causes big bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bearish reactions in the CAD. With a lot of tightening priced into STIRs, and a 100bsp hike providing no support for the CAD, we think risks are skewed lower, and any big downside surprises in CPI this week could offer decent shorting opportunities for the CAD. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture outlook for the CAD remains neutral for now. Given the clear risks to the growth outlook due to the slowdown in the US, as well as rising risks to the consumer and the housing market, and potential negative impact for commodities like oil, we remain cautious on the currency (even though it’s moved much higher than we anticipated). With a lot of good news priced in, our preferred way of trading the CAD is lower on clear short-term negative catalysts. JPY FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK: BEARISH BASELINE The Yen has seen a lot of depreciation this year driven by very negative fundamentals. Yield differentials has by far had the biggest negative impact. With other major central banks starting aggressive hiking cycles, it has lifted yields quite dramatically, which has seen yields like US10Y push considerably higher than 10-year Japanese yields capped at 0.25% by yield curve control. That means dovish monetary policy remains a key negative driver. Despite inflation starting to push higher in Japan, and despite the lessons from other central banks now struggling with inflation last seen since the 70’s, the bank has once again at their June meeting stayed stubbornly dovish keeping yields capped at 0.25%. At this stage the bank is playing a very dangerous game by allowing the JPY to weaken, further adding to inflationary risks. Their dovish persistence remains a negative for the JPY. Even though the JPY is considered a safe haven, inflows has been limited compared to other cycles. The reason is Japan’s current account surplus (a main reason for safe haven appeal) has deteriorated due to the rise in commodity prices. Japan imports over 90% of their energy commodities, so continued rise in oil prices has added to downside and eroded some safe haven appeal. The BoJ and MoF’s reluctance to intervene to stop the rapid depreciation in the JPY in recent weeks has been noticeable. As long as they just voice their dislike but fail to act, the market will keep testing them and shorting the JPY. POSSIBLE BULLISH SURPRISES Catalyst that triggers speculation that the BoJ could drop YCC or hike rates or both (big upside surprises in inflation) could trigger upside in JPY, which means inflation data will be important to keep on the radar. Catalysts that trigger meaningful corrections in US10Y (less hawkish Fed, faster deceleration in US inflation, faster deceleration in US growth) or meaningful bouts of risk off sentiment could trigger bullish reactions from the JPY. Any catalyst that triggers meaningful downside in key commodities like Oil (deteriorating demand outlook, ease in supply shortage) could trigger bullish JPY reactions. Any intervention from the BoJ or MoF to stop JPY depreciation (buying the JPY or giving firm and clear lines in the sand for USDJPY) could offer decent reprieve for the JPY. POSSIBLE BEARISH SURPRISES With yield differentials playing such a huge role for the JPY, any catalysts that push US10Y higher (more aggressive Fed, further acceleration in US inflation, better-than-expected US growth data) could trigger further bearish price action for the JPY. Any catalyst that creates further upside in oil prices (further supply concerns, geopolitical tensions) poses downside risks for Japan’s current account surplus and could trigger further bearish reactions in the JPY. Further reluctance from the BoJ and MoF to address the concerning depreciation in the JPY, and further reluctance from the BoJ to pivot away from very dovish policy is a continued negative driver for the JPY to keep on the radar. If the BoJ pushes back against calls for a policy shift despite upside surprise in CPI could trigger further JPY downside. BIGGER PICTURE The bigger picture remains bleak for the JPY, especially after the BoJ once again stuck to the same overly dovish script at their June meeting. As long as US10Y gains ground and as long as the BoJ stays stubbornly dovish and no push back is made against the JPY weakness from the BoJ or MoF, the bias remains lower. Take note that positioning has been stretched (tactically and CFTC) for some time, which means we don’t want to chase the JPY lower and bullish reactions can see outsized upside. It also means watching incoming CPI data closely as any huge upside surprises could trigger speculation of a possible policy shift.
by thunderpips
1
CAD-JPY Key Levels Analysis! Buy! Hello,Traders! CAD-JPY has retested a key resistance level at 107.118 And is now going down and there is also a rising support present On the higher timeframes so it can not be see on this chart So we will first see how the pair interacts with the rising line And then if the price manages to break it We will see a retest of the support level at 103.803 From where I would be expecting a rebound and a move up Buy! Like, comment and subscribe to boost your trading! See other ideas below too!
Long
by TopTradingSignals
3
USDCAD Sell below the 1D MA50. Buy on Higher Low.The USDCAD pair has been trading within a 1 year Channel Up pattern as we've mentioned on our last analysis in early June: As you see, the rebound on the Channel's Higher Lows (bottom) trend-line worked perfectly as a buy entry and hit our Higher High target in short time. The price is now on a pull-back after the Higher Highs (broke above but still closed within the Channel Up) rejection and is testing the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which is holding as Support since June 10. A break below that level will be a short-term sell towards the inner Higher Lows zone (green shape) where we can enter a new buy just below the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level. Long-term target = 1.21370 or the 1.1 Fib (1.31980) as a new Higher High. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ** Please support this idea with your likes and comments, it is the best way to keep it relevant and support me. ** --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
by TradingShot